Dominic Thiem beat Roger Federer 3-6, 7-6(11), 6-4 in the Madrid quarter-final, 2019 on clay
Thiem would go onto lose in the semi-final to eventual champion Novak Djokovic, and he would be runner-up shortly after at the French Open for the second year in a row. The two had met recently in Indian Wells final, with Thiem winning. This was Federer’s first tournament on clay since 2016
Thiem won 102 points, Federer 100
Serve Stats
Thiem...
- 1st serve percentage (67/96) 70%
- 1st serve points won (54/67) 81%
- 2nd serve points won (16/29) 55%
- Aces 8
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (34/96) 35%
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (76/106) 72%
- 1st serve points won (60/76) 79%
- 2nd serve points won (14/30) 47%
- Aces 6
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (42/106) 40%
Serve Pattern
Thiem served...
- to FH 31%
- to BH 65%
- to Body 4%
Federer served...
- to FH 34%
- to BH 64%
- to Body 2%
Return Stats
Thiem made...
- 61 (22 FH, 39 BH), including 5 runaround FHs
- 2 Winners (2 FH), including 1 runaround FH
- 36 Errors, comprising...
- 17 Unforced (8 FH, 9 BH)
- 19 Forced (8 FH, 11 BH)
- Return Rate (61/103) 59%
Federer made...
- 61 (20 FH, 41 BH), including 3 runaround FHs & 2 return-approaches (both 'sneak attacks')
- 26 Errors, comprising...
- 11 Unforced (5 FH, 6 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 15 Forced (7 FH, 8 BH)
- Return Rate (61/95) 64%
Break Points
Thiem 2/12 (5 games)
Federer 2/5 (3 games)
Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Thiem 23 (16 FH, 5 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Federer 27 (9 FH, 7 BH, 5 FHV, 3 BHV, 3 OH)
Thiem's FHs -3 cc (1 pass), 1 runaround dtl return pass, 7 inside-out (2 passes - 1 a return that Federer seemed to leave), 5 inside-in (1 at net)
- BHs - 2 cc (1 at net), 2 dtl (1 pass), 1 drop shot at net
- 1 from a serve-volley point, a first volley BHV
Federer's FHs - 1 cc, 1 cc/longline, 1 dtl pass, 3 inside-out, 1 inside-in, 1 longline, 1 longline/cc at net
- BHs - 2 cc, 2 dtl, 1 inside-out, 1 longline, 1 drop shot
- 4 from serve-volley points - 3 first volleys (2 FHV, 1 BHV) & 1 second volley (1 OH), that can reasonably be called a FHV
- 1 other BHV was a swinging, non-net pass & 1 other OH was a non-net shot
Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Thiem 30
- 21 Unforced (11 FH, 10 BH)... with 1 FH at net
- 9 Forced (6 FH, 2 BH, 1 BHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.7
Federer 42
- 25 Unforced (14 FH, 9 BH, 2 BHV)... with 1 FH at net
- 17 Forced (3 FH, 9 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 1 BHOH)... with 1 baseline FHV, a flagrantly forced pass attempt
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.2
(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Thiem was...
- 9/13 (69%) at net, including...
- 1/2 serve-volleying, both 2nd serves
Federer was...
- 22/34 (65%) at net, including...
- 12/20 (60%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 9/14 (64%) off 1st serve and...
- 3/6 (50%) off 2nd serve
---
- 0/2 return-approaching
Match Report
Good, if unusual, serve-shot dominated match. Thiem has big power advantage from the back, Federer comes to net guilefully, particularly via serve-volleying and throws out a smorgasbord of serves to keep his opponent off-balance. Result is most fitting with Thiem having slightly better of things on a quick for clay court, though not the venue
Federer has 2 match points in the tiebreak, both return points and both dealt with with authority. Thiem has 6 set points in the same game - 3 of them before Fed has his first set/match point. According to commentary, this is the 21st time Fed had lost a match after having match point. He’d add at least one more later in the year in Wimbledon final. Probably a record, and not one anyone would want to claim
Thiem winning couple more points while serving 10 fewer isn’t too important - percentage terms, winning 50.5% points while serving 47.5%, but the break point figures -
- Thiem 2/12 (5 games), Fed 2/5 (3 games)
… is a fair reflection of his having better of things. 5 games with break points in them is high, in context of his giving up 40% freebies. He’s got Fed down 0-40 3 times and 15-40 once
Serving (good from both) and returning (more poor from both than the serving is good) are at center of match
Serve & Return
Unreturned serves - Thiem 35%, Fed 40%, are atypical for clay. Less so for Madrid than other events, but still its abnormally high. Good serving from both, both faulty returning has as big a hand in the matter. To compare -
- in semi-final, Tsitsipa 12%, Nadal 14%
- in semi-final, Djokovic 29%, Thiem 22%
- in the final, Djoko 20%, Tsitsipas 18%
In their match in Indian Wells earlier in the year, the rates were 23% and 29% respectively
Both with good in-counts (Thiem 70%, Fed 72%). Thiem with the more powerful first serve. Fed though cycles through his full repertoire - flat, slice, kick, both directions in both courts, from slowly thrown very wide to pace-ily close to Thiem and everything in between, with plenty of variety in the second serves too. He does not place the serve uniformly excellently, there’s no small amount of of in-swing zone stuff, and plenty that’s teasingly wide at not great pace
Return error breakdown -
- UEs - Thiem 17, Fed 11
- FEs - Thiem 19, Fed 15
Relatively hard UEs, but still, UEs. Kind of thing a good returner would be frustrated at missing. Both players missing a lot, and blackmark next to both players returning
Fed plays around with return position some, rarely falling well back to take second returns. Most of the time, he takes return early, blocking them back as he likes to. His timing is pretty good and the blocks more often than his norm don’t leave Thiem excess time to wind up. The odd firm smack longline or dtl with BH to open side of court, couple of ‘SABRs’ (loses both, leaving sitting duck passes). Some pseudo-drop returns sliced short to draw Thiem forward. Just 3 runaround FHs isn’t a good move. He doesn’t blast them, but loops them with heavy spin, deep almost like Nadal and its good enough to keep Thiem honest. Not his usual and perhaps Thiem, generally a fine player of the high ball, might have got a grip on it more where it a more regular thing - but under-use of the shot by Fed
High kickers, including first serve ones, to BH cause Fed some trouble. Tries to take them early to keep them from getting too high, without much success. Good few misses and usually, soft return when not. His movements are below average - both for the return and in play. Shot tolerance on return is fine, less so in rallies (more on that later)
It looks like Fed just isn’t a very good returner at this stage of his career. In general (time free), like everyone he has good days and not so good ones, but his movement at least is something that could always be counted on. Not here. And certainly doesn’t have the reactions to take Thiem’s powerful first serve early. He’d employed a similar strategy in their Indian Wells finals earlier in the year - with similar not good results
Thiem more likely is just kept off guard by the vast variations Fed serves down, enhanced still more with unpredictable serve-volleying (he serve-volleys 20% off first serves and 22% off seconds). Only God and Federer knows what the next serve is likely to be. Fed serves good lot of high kickers to Thiem’s BH too (he doesn’t overly depend on any one serve), and Thiem’s at most, a bit more reliable at handling it then Fed is (he tends to return neutrally rather than weakly). Thiem usually returns from well back, though is forced to move forward to counter-act the random serve-volley plays
17/36 UEs isn’t pretty, but less of a blackmark against Thiem than Fed. He’s probably experienced enough that something like variation shouldn’t disrupt him to the extent it does, but this is as varied and random a mix of serving from Fed as there can be
Thiem would go onto lose in the semi-final to eventual champion Novak Djokovic, and he would be runner-up shortly after at the French Open for the second year in a row. The two had met recently in Indian Wells final, with Thiem winning. This was Federer’s first tournament on clay since 2016
Thiem won 102 points, Federer 100
Serve Stats
Thiem...
- 1st serve percentage (67/96) 70%
- 1st serve points won (54/67) 81%
- 2nd serve points won (16/29) 55%
- Aces 8
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (34/96) 35%
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (76/106) 72%
- 1st serve points won (60/76) 79%
- 2nd serve points won (14/30) 47%
- Aces 6
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (42/106) 40%
Serve Pattern
Thiem served...
- to FH 31%
- to BH 65%
- to Body 4%
Federer served...
- to FH 34%
- to BH 64%
- to Body 2%
Return Stats
Thiem made...
- 61 (22 FH, 39 BH), including 5 runaround FHs
- 2 Winners (2 FH), including 1 runaround FH
- 36 Errors, comprising...
- 17 Unforced (8 FH, 9 BH)
- 19 Forced (8 FH, 11 BH)
- Return Rate (61/103) 59%
Federer made...
- 61 (20 FH, 41 BH), including 3 runaround FHs & 2 return-approaches (both 'sneak attacks')
- 26 Errors, comprising...
- 11 Unforced (5 FH, 6 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 15 Forced (7 FH, 8 BH)
- Return Rate (61/95) 64%
Break Points
Thiem 2/12 (5 games)
Federer 2/5 (3 games)
Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Thiem 23 (16 FH, 5 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Federer 27 (9 FH, 7 BH, 5 FHV, 3 BHV, 3 OH)
Thiem's FHs -3 cc (1 pass), 1 runaround dtl return pass, 7 inside-out (2 passes - 1 a return that Federer seemed to leave), 5 inside-in (1 at net)
- BHs - 2 cc (1 at net), 2 dtl (1 pass), 1 drop shot at net
- 1 from a serve-volley point, a first volley BHV
Federer's FHs - 1 cc, 1 cc/longline, 1 dtl pass, 3 inside-out, 1 inside-in, 1 longline, 1 longline/cc at net
- BHs - 2 cc, 2 dtl, 1 inside-out, 1 longline, 1 drop shot
- 4 from serve-volley points - 3 first volleys (2 FHV, 1 BHV) & 1 second volley (1 OH), that can reasonably be called a FHV
- 1 other BHV was a swinging, non-net pass & 1 other OH was a non-net shot
Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Thiem 30
- 21 Unforced (11 FH, 10 BH)... with 1 FH at net
- 9 Forced (6 FH, 2 BH, 1 BHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.7
Federer 42
- 25 Unforced (14 FH, 9 BH, 2 BHV)... with 1 FH at net
- 17 Forced (3 FH, 9 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 1 BHOH)... with 1 baseline FHV, a flagrantly forced pass attempt
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.2
(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Thiem was...
- 9/13 (69%) at net, including...
- 1/2 serve-volleying, both 2nd serves
Federer was...
- 22/34 (65%) at net, including...
- 12/20 (60%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 9/14 (64%) off 1st serve and...
- 3/6 (50%) off 2nd serve
---
- 0/2 return-approaching
Match Report
Good, if unusual, serve-shot dominated match. Thiem has big power advantage from the back, Federer comes to net guilefully, particularly via serve-volleying and throws out a smorgasbord of serves to keep his opponent off-balance. Result is most fitting with Thiem having slightly better of things on a quick for clay court, though not the venue
Federer has 2 match points in the tiebreak, both return points and both dealt with with authority. Thiem has 6 set points in the same game - 3 of them before Fed has his first set/match point. According to commentary, this is the 21st time Fed had lost a match after having match point. He’d add at least one more later in the year in Wimbledon final. Probably a record, and not one anyone would want to claim
Thiem winning couple more points while serving 10 fewer isn’t too important - percentage terms, winning 50.5% points while serving 47.5%, but the break point figures -
- Thiem 2/12 (5 games), Fed 2/5 (3 games)
… is a fair reflection of his having better of things. 5 games with break points in them is high, in context of his giving up 40% freebies. He’s got Fed down 0-40 3 times and 15-40 once
Serving (good from both) and returning (more poor from both than the serving is good) are at center of match
Serve & Return
Unreturned serves - Thiem 35%, Fed 40%, are atypical for clay. Less so for Madrid than other events, but still its abnormally high. Good serving from both, both faulty returning has as big a hand in the matter. To compare -
- in semi-final, Tsitsipa 12%, Nadal 14%
- in semi-final, Djokovic 29%, Thiem 22%
- in the final, Djoko 20%, Tsitsipas 18%
In their match in Indian Wells earlier in the year, the rates were 23% and 29% respectively
Both with good in-counts (Thiem 70%, Fed 72%). Thiem with the more powerful first serve. Fed though cycles through his full repertoire - flat, slice, kick, both directions in both courts, from slowly thrown very wide to pace-ily close to Thiem and everything in between, with plenty of variety in the second serves too. He does not place the serve uniformly excellently, there’s no small amount of of in-swing zone stuff, and plenty that’s teasingly wide at not great pace
Return error breakdown -
- UEs - Thiem 17, Fed 11
- FEs - Thiem 19, Fed 15
Relatively hard UEs, but still, UEs. Kind of thing a good returner would be frustrated at missing. Both players missing a lot, and blackmark next to both players returning
Fed plays around with return position some, rarely falling well back to take second returns. Most of the time, he takes return early, blocking them back as he likes to. His timing is pretty good and the blocks more often than his norm don’t leave Thiem excess time to wind up. The odd firm smack longline or dtl with BH to open side of court, couple of ‘SABRs’ (loses both, leaving sitting duck passes). Some pseudo-drop returns sliced short to draw Thiem forward. Just 3 runaround FHs isn’t a good move. He doesn’t blast them, but loops them with heavy spin, deep almost like Nadal and its good enough to keep Thiem honest. Not his usual and perhaps Thiem, generally a fine player of the high ball, might have got a grip on it more where it a more regular thing - but under-use of the shot by Fed
High kickers, including first serve ones, to BH cause Fed some trouble. Tries to take them early to keep them from getting too high, without much success. Good few misses and usually, soft return when not. His movements are below average - both for the return and in play. Shot tolerance on return is fine, less so in rallies (more on that later)
It looks like Fed just isn’t a very good returner at this stage of his career. In general (time free), like everyone he has good days and not so good ones, but his movement at least is something that could always be counted on. Not here. And certainly doesn’t have the reactions to take Thiem’s powerful first serve early. He’d employed a similar strategy in their Indian Wells finals earlier in the year - with similar not good results
Thiem more likely is just kept off guard by the vast variations Fed serves down, enhanced still more with unpredictable serve-volleying (he serve-volleys 20% off first serves and 22% off seconds). Only God and Federer knows what the next serve is likely to be. Fed serves good lot of high kickers to Thiem’s BH too (he doesn’t overly depend on any one serve), and Thiem’s at most, a bit more reliable at handling it then Fed is (he tends to return neutrally rather than weakly). Thiem usually returns from well back, though is forced to move forward to counter-act the random serve-volley plays
17/36 UEs isn’t pretty, but less of a blackmark against Thiem than Fed. He’s probably experienced enough that something like variation shouldn’t disrupt him to the extent it does, but this is as varied and random a mix of serving from Fed as there can be