Match Stats/Report - Thiem vs Federer, Year End Championship round robin, 2019

[Waspsting]

Dominic Thiem beat Roger Federer 7-5, 7-5 in the Year End Championship round robin, 2019 on indoor hard court in London, England

Thiem would go onto lose in the final to Stefanos Tsitsipas, who would also beat Federer in the semi-final. Both Thiem and Federer would finish the round robin with 2-1 record, with Thiem topping the group on basis of this head-to-head win

Thiem won 77 points, Federer 72

Federer serve-volleyed a third off the time off first serves

Serve Stats
Thiem...
- 1st serve percentage (51/81) 63%
- 1st serve points won (33/51) 65%
- 2nd serve points won (19/30) 63%
- Aces 1, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (23/81) 28%

Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (47/68) 69%
- 1st serve points won (33/47) 70%
- 2nd serve points won (10/21) 48%
- Aces 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (24/68) 35%

Serve Pattern
Thiem served...
- to FH 36%
- to BH 56%
- to Body 8%

Federer served...
- to FH 43%
- to BH 56%
- to Body 1%

Return Stats
Thiem made...
- 44 (20 FH, 24 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 19 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (3 FH, 3 BH)
- 13 Forced (5 FH, 8 BH)
- Return Rate (44/68) 65%

Federer made...
- 57 (19 FH, 38 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 21 Errors, comprising...
- 12 Unforced (8 FH, 4 BH)
- 9 Forced (2 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (57/80) 71%

Break Points
Thiem 3/5 (3 games)
Federer 1/4 (3 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Thiem 19 (12 FH, 4 BH, 2 BHV, 1 OH)
Federer 19 (7 FH, 4 BH, 2 FHV, 4 BHV, 2 OH)

Thiem's FHs - 2 cc, 1 cc/inside-in, 2 dtl, 1 dtl/inside-out, 5 inside-out, 1 lob
- BH passes - 1 cc, 1 dtl, 2 longline

Federer's FHs - 1 cc, 1 cc/inside-in, 2 inside-out, 2 inside-in
- BHs - 1 cc pass, 1 dtl, 1 longline pass, 1 net chord dribbling return

- 3 from serve-volley points - 2 first 'volleys' (1 OH, 1 FH at net) & 1 second volley (1 OH)
- 1 other FHV was a non-net, swinging inside-in/cc

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Thiem 28
- 18 Unforced (6 FH, 11 BH, 1 BHV)
- 10 Forced (6 FH, 4 BH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.7

Federer 35
- 22 Unforced (10 FH, 8 BH, 3 BHV, 1 OH)
- 13 Forced (8 FH, 4 BH, 1 FHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.3

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Thiem was...
- 6/10 (60%) at net, including...
- 0/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve

Federer was...
- 17/28 (61%) at net, including...
- 8/14 (57%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 8/12 (67%) off 1st serve and...
- 0/2 off 2nd serve
---
- 0/1 forced back

Match Report
Beautiful match from both players, decided by odd good game here and there and ‘big points’ and Thiem pulls them out to win. He’s able to deliver punishing returns occasionally, and make the most of it to break, while generally stumped by Federer’s pinpoint serving. FH when called upon, delivers too for the winner. Federer’s not far behind, with his serve and net play at forefront and he’s not off in any area. Court is quickish

Thiem winning just 5 more points, despite winning 4 more games
Sign of Fed generally holding serve more easily. Both in terms of points and time. Fed delivering 2-3 of his patented 60-90 second holds

Break points - Thiem 3/5, Fed 1/4. Both having them in 3 games
That’d be the big points thing. Good games to break by both, good play by Thiem to resist being broken in two games he saves. Good stuff all around

First serve in - Thiem 63%, Fed 69%
First serve won - Thiem 65%, Fed 70%
Second serve won - Thiem 63%, Fed 48%

Second serve points speaks to Thiem being better court player (his returning has a hand too), but Federer serves beautifully and with that high a percentage, Thiem’s court superiority isn’t necessarily decisive

Thiem with 19 winners, forcing 13 errors, 18 UEs
FH has match high 12 winners, match low 6 UEs. Its not a crazy showing from him and for most part, keeps the FH play solid, pressuring. When called on though, sparks fly from it. Not easy or obvious balls that he dispatches, many staying low

Though not particularly important to outcome, he passes well too - against high quality opposition
Just occasionally, is able to boom returns to the baseline

Fed with 19 winners, 22 UEs, forcing 10 errors
Strikes a nice balance, near 50-50 balance in swiping choice FHs and taking net for aggression, while managing to hang even with Thiem rallying on UEs front
Takes returns early to deny Thiem easy attack to start rallies, but doesn’t have Thiem’s occasional damaging returning ability. In fact, tripping a little on the FH return, that Thiem riskily goes to at important times

Good showings from both players - Fed serving better (Thiem’s good too), Thiem returning more damagingly (Fed’s not bad), both with some very good shot-making from the back (Thiem more), evenly matched just rallying with both players looking to get on attack in their own ways. Fed very nice at net, Thiem passing well to counter. And the odd good game, a few big points deciding outcome

Serve & Return
Both players good on both shots. Fed’s serve is most standout. Thiem returns better in sense that he’s damaging more often with it (its not often though), but Fed’s more consistent while taking the ball early

In count - Thiem 63%, Fed 69%
First serve ace rate - Thiem 4%, Fed 11%
Freebies - Thiem 28%, Fed 35%

For starters, those are excellent in-counts
Particularly good job returning by Fed to keep the aces down to barel minimum. Thiem hasn’t done badly either - though it looks a pittance, next to Fed

Hefty serves from Thiem, usually wide enough to be troubling. Fed mixes up pace more, but hits his wide spots unerringly
Fed’s on baseline to return almost all the time against both serves. Thiem’s usually 2-3 paces behind baseline

Needs excellent movement and/or reading the serve to return as consistently as Fed’s done from his position. He doesn’t make many weak returns either. They’re not damagingly strong either. In fact, his more neutralizing returns are often against tougher serves that he’s flat-blocked on the stretch

Return UEs - Thiem 6, Fed 12
Return FEs - Thiem 13, Fed 9

This needs some explanation. Reason for Fed UE heavy yield is his making most of the tough returns (as opposed to not facing tough serves to begin with)
Still, 12 UEs isn’t great. Its higher doubles Thiem’s in large part due to Thiem not having scope to make UEs against wider placed serves, but still, room for improvement there

Its FH return that’s faltered. Fed with 10 FH UEs (8 UEs), 11 BHs, while facing 36% serves to FH, 56% to BH

6/8 of those FH UEs are against second serves. With Thiem only serving 11 second serves to FH, remaining 18 to FH or body.
So missing about 50% second serve returns to his FH. And 11/29 second serves to FH isn’t so rare as to be particularly surprising
Would think second serve to FH would be what Fed would want, but he’s not done well there. Not going for too much with the returns either - edgily attacking, certain not trying for point ending returns

Flip side is good job by Fed to keep the FEs, along with aces, down. He does make tough wide returns, blocking them back from around the baseline. Without leaving easy third ball attacking option
Thiem returning what he can against a better placed serves. Cincher is he gets a few troublingly deep in a way Fed doesn’t. He returns from couple of paces further back

Just 1 double from combined 51 second serves in the match

Gist - Fed with 35% to 28% lead in freebies, but Thiem occasionally getting a few damaging returns off (only return winner is Fed’s but its net chord dribbler)
Fed hitting his spots beautifully with the serve, Thiem serving heftily and not as wide
Good consistency on difficult returns by Fed. Less so against routine stuff to his FH that he can readily swing through

 

[Waspsting]

Play - Baseline & Net
Both players proactive in looking to get on offence. Fed in equal measure from back and front. With Thiem rallying well, its more taking net after hitting a ball wide than going for clean winners from back

Thiem slightly leaning to playing FHs, which he does smartly(!). Plays inside-out almost neutrally to Fed’s BH, which is a good place to start, but goes harder cc, when shy of attacking. Plays almost normally, let alone ‘not bonkers’ in going for winners. Respects Fed’s low slices, though when choosing to, is able to dispatch those

Fed also slightly leaning to play FHs. As in moving over to play FHs in lieu of BHs. Normal enough for him. He’s pressured, usually a little outhit on the FH, and his BH is targetted some. Handles it fine, mixing up slices and drives

When gets weaker ball - hits it wide and comes in. Less often, smites with with finishing force with the FH, moving over to do so if necessary

In baseline rallies -
- Winner - Thiem 11 (all FHs), Fed 9 (6 FH, 2 BH, 1 FHV)
- Errors forced - Thiem 9, Fed 6
- UEs - Thiem 17 (6 FH, 11 BH), Fed 18 (10 FH, 8 BH)

… and 7/9 of Fed’s FEs are FHs (Thiem’s are split across wings)

UE breakdown -
- neutral - Thiem 10, Fed 11
- attacking - Thiem 3, Fed 6
- winner attempts - Thiem 4, Fed 1

Lower BH UEs is good for Fed. Thiem has slightly more powerful shot, but its not threatening. Fed not ‘forced’ to slice for lack of time. He slices out of choice when he chooses - just mixing things up, and slices well, keeping them low

That’s a very secure FH showing from Thiem, and all credit to him for it. Inside-out to probe Fed’s BH, powerfully cc to threaten the other way and very secure doing all of that. 6-10 UE advantage, with more of his being aggressive shots - Thiem doing very well just on consistency front of FH

And then there’s there’s the 11 winners. And bulk of Fed’s 7 FH FEs would be drawn by FH (deep returns also draw a few). The winners aren’t easy shots usually. 5 inside-outs - 2-3 or against low balls, also couple cc and 3 dtl based. Dominic Thiem playing sensible, solid, probing, pressuring and still choice bold full aggressive - and executing. Wonder of wonders

Fed swiping away a few FHs too. CC he’s usually pushed into reactive, so more back-away stuff. 5/6 winners are from leaning in ad court. Just the 1 flashing BH dtl winner. The other BH is a net chord dribbling return

More often, Fed swipes the ball wide (off either wing) and takes net
Rallying to net, Fed’s 9/14. Thiem’s 6/9, while having more ready chances to come in. If he had Fed’s net hunger, I’d estimate Thiem would be at net 20-25 times. Fed with Thiem’s net hunger would have maybe 7 approaches
Fed also serve-volleying regularly. 14/42 first serves or 33%. Couple of second serve-volleys too

Fed on ‘volley’ has 8 winners, 4 UEs, 1 FE
Thiem on pass has 5 winners (1 FH, 4 BH), 4 FEs (3 FH, 1 BH)

Nice contest, though its not important in what turns out to be crunch times (it of course, contributes to things not getting crunch in the first place)

Fed neat on the volley. Thiem again, smart in his response. He looks to get the pass under net, draw ‘up’ volley and then go for the winner (as opposed to wantonly trying to lash the winner first up). Doesn’t get them too low - Fed’s slightly under-net volleys are scooped and not threatening, where its possible to hit decisive volleys. Alternative would be to drop them instead, which he doesn’t do. Thiem very good on the follow up pass

And neat finishing on the routine volley by Fed too

Gist - Thiem better from the baseline, due to outstanding FH. Secure, pressuring and when needed, deadly. Fed attacking from back with FHs too, more often taking net, with a lot of serve-volleying to skip the middle ground of rally where he’s pushed into more reactive role. He doesn’t go willing and stays on baseline rather than falls back, but is a little harried to handle Thiem’s firm force from there

Match Progression
Fed falls to 0-40 in opening game and is eventually broken
Bad BHV miss to start the match, an unwise FH inside-in that leaves Thiem’s FH cc counter to go for winner and a bashed second return to the baseline to reach 0-40
Fed saves couple break points with net point and third ball FH inside-out winner, but misses ambitious attacking third ball FH to lose serve

Fed sets up approach with a good BH line at 15-15 next game, but again misses easy BHV. Thiem shows how its doen with a good third ball FH inside-out to set up net point to hold few points later

Fed breaks to level at 2-2 in 8-point, full baseline game. Starts and ends game forcing FH errors - start with a FH inside-in/cc (makeably difficult ball for Thiem), ends with BH dtl

No more competitive thrills to the end of the set, though there’s plenty of fine tennis. Fed holds game 7 to love with 4 winners - a move-around FH inside-out, a second volley smash serve-volleying, a deft BHV against a powerful pass and a vicious swinging FHV inside-in/cc third ball from no-man’s land

Thiem breaks for 6-5. Nothing too spectacular in the point endings, but good, deep returns from Thiem in the game, despite Fed making 5/6 first serves. Directing all 5 first serves to FH probably not the best idea

Not an uneventful serve out. Thiem’s cozily placed at 40-0, but roles are reversed from first game, with Fed countering a non-finishing FH inside-in with FH cc winner and and striking a winning BH dtl point after. He misses a worth-going-for attacking BH dtl on third set point though

Just the 1 break in second set but its competitive
Thiem serves 45 points for 6 holds, Fed 38 for 5 holds and being broken to love
Break points for set - Thiem 1/1, Fed 0/3 (2 games)
Fed also holds 2 long games (8 and 10 points) without facing break point

Games 3 & 4 are both good ones. Fed given a rough time at net, but finding good serves and a FH inside-in winner to hold for 2-1
Thiem saves 1 break point game after, which lasts 10 points
BH dtl winner from normal position raises the break pint and a lively rally develops on it. Thiem comes away with a running, counter-attacking FH dtl that forces error to get to deuce, before going on to hold

More particularly good games in middle of set
Sandwiched between deuce holds by Fed, Thiem holds to 30, with 3 third ball FH inside-out winners - 1 of them particularly good. Fed also working his way beautifully to net in the game to come away with BHV winner

Great returns from Thiem to break to love. 3 of them, varying form good to winning, and Fed helping with an easy BHV miss. Leaves Thiem to serve out the match

Takes 12 points and he has to save 2 break points to do it. Fed left to rue missing 2 FH second returns in the first 3 points. 3 ground UEs from Thiem in the game (2 of them third balls), but he also finds good serves and bashes winning FHs

Strong serve erases first break point, third ball FH dtl winner does for the second. Not an obvious shot
Adds another third ball FH inside-out winner, before one of his stronger serves ends the match

Summing up, very good match from both players
Federer serves superbly in hitting his spots. Thiem often rendered helpless by it, but occasionally, is able to find powerful, very deep returns to gain headway
Thiem solid, strong and when he chooses, deadly with the FH. By far the best shot in the match in just about all ways. Passes smartly and well with the BH too
Federer attacking more from net than the back, but both. He doesn’t budge from baseline, but is slightly troubled by more powerful Thiem in baseline rallies, so needs craft to find net and attacking chances

Little in the result. Thiem strong to create and take his chances, and to thwart opponents to earn it

Stats for the final between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Thiem - Match Stats/Report - Tsitsipas vs Thiem, Year End Championship final, 2019 | Talk Tennis
Stats for Thiem’s round robin match with Novak Djokovic - Match Stats/Report - Thiem vs Djokovic, Year End Championship round robin, 2019 | Talk Tennis
Stats for Federer’s round robing match with Djokovic - Duel Match Stats/Reports - Federer vs Djokovic, Year End Championship round robins, 2019 & 2015 | Talk Tennis

 

[7thKingSlam]

Greatest ATP Finals I’ve seen, probably. Can’t really think of another field where 7/8 guys (sorry Matteo) felt like they had a real shot to win and there were so many close, high quality matches. The fact that Tsitsipas comes out of it is pretty funny now looking back.

 

[MilosRaonicFan]

Greatest ATP Finals I’ve seen, probably. Can’t really think of another field where 7/8 guys (sorry Matteo) felt like they had a real shot to win and there were so many close, high quality matches. The fact that Tsitsipas comes out of it is pretty funny now looking back.

2009 was another great year where it felt like almost every player was playing for the silverware. I didn't watch tennis back then, but I would imagine in the pre-Federer (and later Djokovic) days of dominance, there would be a lot of competitive finals tournaments.

 

[Waspsting]

Greatest ATP Finals I’ve seen, probably. Can’t really think of another field where 7/8 guys (sorry Matteo) felt like they had a real shot to win and there were so many close, high quality matches. The fact that Tsitsipas comes out of it is pretty funny now looking back.

Seems funnier now then it did than
As I recall, Tsis showed good potential. And I was quite happy to see him win, with his bright game relative to someone like Zverev
He has been a real disappointment

2009 was another great year where it felt like almost every player was playing for the silverware. I didn't watch tennis back then, but I would imagine in the pre-Federer (and later Djokovic) days of dominance, there would be a lot of competitive finals tournaments.

To an extent
The problem they had in the 90s was that the indoor carpet courts were very fast
Much as I enjoyed that, I didn't think it was appropriate for season ending event - which players had qualifed for based on their results across all surfaces - to be played on such extreme conditions
So it was the big servers, and serve-volleyers who excelled and there was a lot of serve-bottish matches

They got the London courts just perfect in my opinion, with something in it for all types of players

Another thing about this tournament, pre-Federer days, was that it was somewhat special because all the top players rarely assembled at any tournament. And more often then not, they didn't end up meeting at the Slams, with a lot of upsets and a sense of anyone can beat anyone

Around the Federe period, top guys met each other all year long at the Masters events and usually lived up to their seedings to meet at the Slams too
So having them all set to play each other at year ender didn't seem so special

Also, with far greater emphasis placed on Slams than had previously been the case, seemed to be drop off in most players mojo's post US Open, and rest of season was just wrap up

In '90s, YEC was like a Slam minus
Fed era onward, I'd say its like a Masters plus

 

[7thKingSlam]

As I recall, Tsis showed good potential. And I was quite happy to see him win, with his bright game relative to someone like Zverev

Agreed. In 2019 I was higher on him than Zverev (who was having serious DF issues all year). The backhand was always gonna be an issue but I was a big fan of his all-court style, and his serve+forehand felt generational. I also got the sense Tsitsipas was a big match player when he was younger, whereas the rest of the generation seemed to shrink in the big moments. In that sense, he's been so disappointing and ironically people will likely remember him as a terrible big match player. I think as the younger generation caught Tsitsipas, he stopped feeling like the up-and-coming big 3 challenger and that affected his tennis.

So it was the big servers, and serve-volleyers who excelled and there was a lot of serve-bottish matches

They got the London courts just perfect in my opinion, with something in it for all types of players

I agree on the London courts. They really made it feel like everyone had a shot, as shown by Thiem putting together great runs for example. I think Turin has made the same mistake as the 90s. The ATP Finals should not be the fastest court of the year, nor the slowest. A lot of players make it there based on their clay court/slow court results and are just set up to get crushed on faster courts. No one wants to watch Sinner vs Musetti on fast hard.

2009 was another great year where it felt like almost every player was playing for the silverware. I didn't watch tennis back then, but I would imagine in the pre-Federer (and later Djokovic) days of dominance, there would be a lot of competitive finals tournaments.

That was a fun one. Nadal was poor but otherwise the rest of the field was very competitive. I think in the group with Federer/Murray, every match went three sets. Also funny that Soderling/Davydenko made it out of the other group instead of Nadal/Djokovic.

 

[EvonneFedererBorgster]

People tend to focus on his backhand now, but I don’t think it was seen as such a big weakness back then. It wasn’t a Theim/Wawrinka power beauty, but now people talk about it like they still harp on Steffi’s amazing slice. It seems to me that it’s a matter of confidence and Stefanos has lost a bit of that in his backhand and a ton of it in his game overall. His backhand was good enough to get him two sets up to love over Novak at RG ‘21. Novak can hone in on any perceived weakness as good as anyone not named Rafa on clay. Then he took Novak to two tiebreaker sets a few years later on Djokovic best surface in the ‘23 Australian final. If his backhand was as weak as people keep saying that would not have happened. It’s all mental/confidence. Look at the way he handled the Nick Kyrgios situation at Wimbledon a few years ago. He behaved even more like a petulant child than Nick did on the world’s grandest stage. And that’s saying a lot. He needs help upstairs and people will probably quit harping on his backhand. If not he becomes Jana Novotna without her much deserved 1998 Big W hardware.