Match Stats/Report - Thiem vs Nadal, Year End Championship round robin, 2020

[Waspsting]

Dominic Thiem beat Rafael Nadal 7-6(7), 7-6(4) in the Year End Championship round robin, 2020 on indoor hard court in London, England

Both players had won their first match and both players would advance out of the group with a 2-1 record, Thiem topping the group on basis of winning this head-to-head match. Thiem would go onto finish runner-up and Nadal lose in the semi-final, both losing to champion Daniil Medvedev

Thiem won 86 points, Nadal 81

Serve Stats
Thiem...
- 1st serve percentage (51/87) 59%
- 1st serve points won (39/51) 76%
- 2nd serve points won (19/36) 53%
- Aces 6
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (26/87) 30%

Nadal....
- 1st serve percentage (48/80) 60%
- 1st serve points won (33/48) 69%
- 2nd serve points won (19/32) 59%
- Aces 2, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (23/80) 29%

Serve Patterns
Thiem served...
- to FH 38%
- to BH 61%
- to Body 1%

Nadal served...
- to FH 35%
- to BH 57%
- to Body 8%

Return Stats
Thiem made...
- 56 (24 FH, 32 BH), including 6 runaround FHs
- 2 Winners (2 BH)
- 20 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (6 FH, 2 BH)
- 12 Forced (5 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (56/79) 71%

Nadal made...
- 59 (23 FH, 36 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 1 return-approach
- 20 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (2 FH, 8 BH)
- 10 Forced (4 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (59/85) 69%

Break Points
Thiem 1/5 (2 games)
Nadal 1/2 (2 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Thiem 31 (19 FH, 7 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 2 OH)
Nadal 22 (8 FH, 3 BH, 4 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 4 OH)

Thiem's FHs - 1 cc, 4 dtl (1 pass), 7 inside-out, 3 inside-in, 3 drop shots (1 at net)
- BHs - 2 cc (1 pass - a slice), 3 dtl (2 passes - 1 return), 1 inside-out return pass, 1 longline (a net chord pop over)

- 3 from serve-volley points - 2 first 'volley's (1 BHV, 1 FH at net) & 1 second volley (1 OH)
- 1 other FHV was a swinging, inside-out pass from the baseline

Nadal's FHs - 3 cc (2 passes - 1 at net), 3 dtl (2 passes), 2 inside-out
- BHs - 2 dtl (1 pass), 1 drop shot

- 2 from serve-volley points (1 FHV, 1 BHV), both first volleys
- 1 from a return-approach point, a FHV
- 1 other OH was on the bounce

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Thiem 34
- 21 Unforced (8 FH, 13 BH)
- 13 Forced (6 FH, 7 BH)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot (non-net)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.3

Nadal 28
- 18 Unforced (7 FH, 9 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
- 10 Forced (3 FH, 6 BH, 1 BHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.2

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Thiem was...
- 14/21 (67%) at net, including...
- 6/7 (86%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 2/4 (50%) forced back/retreated

Nadal was...
- 22/34 (65%) at net, including...
- 3/7 (43%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 2/6 (33%) off 1st serve and...
- 1/1 off 2nd serve
---
- 1/1 return-approaching
- 1/1 forced back

Match Report
Top class match, especially the first set which is as good as it gets. Dual winged, fluid rallies of attacking point construction defines action. Within that staple context, Nadal utilizes net play a little more, Thiem engages in more pure shot-making. There’s nothing in the result - 2 even sets decided by tiebreaks, both of which Thiem happens to win (and the ‘breakers are close too)

Points won - Thiem 86, Nadal 81
Points served - Thiem 87, Nadal 80
Sans tiebreaks, points won dead equal at 70, Nadal holding a little more easily

Break points - Thiem 1/5, Nadal 1/2, with both having them in 2 games
Close as can be

Both players with more winners than UEs - Thiem 31-21, Nadal 22-18
Proportion of errors that are FEs is also high - Thiem has 13 FEs, Nadal 10
Top drawer stuff, on top of close as can be

Serving ain’t too shabby either. Unreturned serves Thiem 30%, Nadal 29%

First set is more about high end court action, while serve has bigger role in the second

Unreturned serves across sets -
First set - Thiem 20%, Nadal 25%
Second set - Thiem 40%, Nadal 33%

Service percentage and quality doesn’t change much across sets. Both players being pointedly good in returning testing serves in first set accounts for bulk difference in freebies across the two sets. There is room for improvement in the same area in second set, especially for Nadal, but its far from blackmark territory

Swings to roundabouts freebie rate is court action

Rally stats (that is, when return is put in play) across sets…
First set -
Thiem 19 winners, forcing 5 errors, 10 UEs
Nadal 14 winners, forcing 6 errors, 9 UEs

Second set -
Thiem 12 winners, forcing 5 errors, 11 UEs
Nadal 8 winners, forcing 7 errors, 9 UEs

About equal winners and UEs for both players in the second set. And that’s the bad part of the match. Those first set figures are fair reflection of top drawer action

And it springs from sound base. Two guys trading probing neutral groundies as starting point. Both with an eye to get on attack, without being over-eager or gung-ho about it (as Thiem tends to be, for example, in previous years celebrated round robin match with Novak Djokovic). Nadal in particular looking some to probe Thiem’s BH with FH cc’s (a move Thiem handles readily) but again, not systematically

Crosscourt exchanges, with longline change-ups needing light movement to cover. Both players steady, both moving well enough to cope fluidly

Turns to wider angled cc or dtl shot that really gets a moving rally going. Nadal’s apt to come in to attack from there. Thiem does so too, but less and goes for his winners after outmanuvering opponent. Both serve-volley a little too

Match long, in baseline rallies -
Winners - Thiem 18 (16 FH, 2 BH), Nadal 6 (4 FH, 2 BH)
Errors forced - Theim 6, Nadal 4
(Aggressively ended points - Thiem 24, Nadal 10)
UEs - Thiem 21 (8 FH, 13 BH), Nadal 16 (7 FH, 9 BH)

Thiem very clearly getting the better of this, but its not a baseline match. Nadal’s finisher is coming into net to finish when he’s outmanuvered Thiem. His net play corresponds to Thiem’s FH weapon, which has 16 winners, 8 UEs (that’s just in baseline rallies. In all, its 19 winners, 8 UEs)

Rallying to net - Thiem 8/14 or 57%, Nadal 18/26 or 69%
With serve-volleys and a solitary return-approach thrown in, Thiem wins 67% of 21 approaches, Nadal 65% of 34

Nadal on the ‘volley’ has 11 winners, 2 UEs, 1 FE
Thiem on the pass 7 passing winners (2 returns), 9 FEs

Nicely crafted trips to net by Nadal. Most often, after outmanuvering Thiem (when situation is reversed, Thiem goes for winners from the back). He doesn’t manufacture approaches from neutral positions much, but he doesn’t come in from overwhelmingly strong approaches either. Volleys with beautiful precision and touch

That’d be a great passing yield for Thiem in normal times. Here, he’s got bad look passes. Outstanding stuff from him

Nadal finishing with drop volley winners, and when going deep, doing so to BH. On that side, Thiem with 3 passing winners (excluding 2 perfect returns), 7 FEs. On the FH, just the 1 passing winner (not counting a swinging FHV from closer to baseline than service line), couple of FEs

Great volleying from Nadal, great passing from Thiem - wonderful contest

Thiem on the ‘volley’ has 5 winners, 0 errors
Nadal on the pass has 5 winners, 3 FEs

Thiem comes in from similar, good but short of overwhelming approaches as Nadal, just not as often because he’s more comfy finishing from the back. Literally, does not miss a volley so you can’t do better than that. 3/5 winners are from his 7 serve-volleying points, so just 2 from his 14 rally approaches. He's not too comfy up there and retreats 3 times (and is forced back once)

His volleys aren’t as damaging as Nadal’s, but still, leaves less-than-50% passing looks. Nadal beating those odds with typical great passing

Good volleying from Thiem (great when you consider the 0 UEs), great passing from Nadal - another excellent contest, but this one’s more to the side of overall action. By contrast, Nadal coming in is his main spearhead

Back to baseline rallies. Winners and UEs by shot -
- Thiem FH -16 and 8
- Nadal FH - 4 and 7
- Nadal BH - 2 and 8
- Thiem BH - 2 and 13

In line with fluid action, staple rallies aren’t prolonged cc exchanges. There’s plenty of neutral longline shots from both players off both wings and BHs aren’t just holding the forte. Both players use wide cc or dtl BHs to get on or keep up attack too, but of course, both look to impose themselves more off the FH

Thiem’s BH with match high UEs. It has been outdone by typical Nadal FH cc’ng. Not just trying to breakdown the BH from Nadal on this line, but some skirting boundaries of attacking and neutral strong FH cc shots

Opposite not true and Nadal BH matching Thiem’s FH for consistency. While being lighter shot and Thiem able to get on attack, which is also true other way around

 

[Waspsting]

Neutral UEs - Thiem 13, Nadal 7 (Nadal has a defensive UE too)
That’s with minimal sloppiness. Neutral UEs have to be earned with persistent, probing groundies. Nadal just better at it, considerably. Thiem’s good too though

Thiem has 7 attacking UEs and forces 6 errors
Nadal has 5 attacking UEs and forces 4 errors

Fine movement and sturdy defence. More defence than counter-attack, though there’s some of that too, which moving rallies lends itself too.

Winner attempt UEs and winners - Thiem just 1 UE while striking 18 winners, Nadal 3 for 6 winners

That is an outrageous yield from Thiem. He’s not zoning in the going-for-winners-all-the-time & landing them way. He is constructing attacks beautifully, with wider shots to open court, get a dynamic rally going and when he looks to finish, can’t seem to miss

The shot-making (that is, going for winners from routine positions without much set up) is smaller part of Thiem’s showing, but its there. Can’t seem to miss doing that either. FH inside-out is what the turns to for that - and I has match high 7 winners - more than all of Nadal’s baseline rally winners from both wings

Nadal doesn’t go for many winners from routine positions. He rarely manufactures an approach from such position. Less often than Thiem goes for the shot-making winner

Before all that, comes serve-return contests and like everything else, 2 are evenly matched

First serve in - Thiem 59%, Nadal 60%
Unreturned serves - Thiem 30%, Nadal 29%
… with the freebie rates substantially varying across sets, as outlined earlier

Similar calibre serves, both good. In context of similar number of serves send down (Thiem 87, Nadal 80), identical serve-volleys (both 7 times) -

First serve ace/service winner rate - Thiem 12%, Nadal 6%
Return FEs drawn - Thiem 10, Nadal 12
Return UEs drawn - Thiem 10, Nadal 8

Few more aces for Thiem (he has 6, Nadal has 2 and a service winner). Small number, not too important, all but fully compensated for by return FEs drawn. Nadal a touch more consistent in making the routine return. Late in match, he goes for a couple of wining returns against second serves - and misses to bolster his UEs. When it comes to just getting the return back normally, Nadal a little more better than that small difference in UEs suggests

Good enough quality serves to give server initiative, but not big ones. Not a lot of third ball finishers and those that Thiem hits require moxie to go after

Gist - solidly good serving from both players (Thiem slightly more powerful) and normal returning to meet it (Nadal slightly better at making tough returns)
For the large discrepancy in freebie rates across sets, credit returners in first set more for high return rates than discredit them for lower ones in second
Sets a nice platform for court action - which is all-court, beautiful and very high end

Match Progression
First set is as good a set of tennis as you’ll see
No break points, but also no love games. Thiem serves 36 points for his 6 holds, Nadal 32

First 3 points end with ground UEs, and then things rise to where it remains; the said all-court, beautiful, very high end action

All aspects of the game are on show, off both wings by both players. Fluid rallies, with both looking to outmanuver the other to get into convincing attack position. Defence is sturdy and good, with healthy dose of counter-attack to it too. And ease. Despite the aggression, neither player is strained or desperate to attack. It all seems to flow organically out of just playing normally

Nadal leads with net play, Thiem less so though he’s not net shy either

Nadal’s volleying is near perfect. Shows great feel and touch with drop shots from the baseline too
Thiem’s more apt to finish from the back, more via point construction than shot-making, but some of the latter too

Describing every great rally or shot would take 6 pages. Suffice to say, the whole set is played as described above

Only extended game is a 10 point one on Thiem’s serve. He’s up 40-15 in that and not in much trouble. 4 winners, 4 FEs, just 2 UEs in the game - and it’s a normal game for the set

2 particularly good games are 8 and 12, both Thiem holds to 15
Game 8 has 3 winners - wonderful drop shot from no-man’s land by Nadal as he’s in process of approaching, a FH dtl from routine position from Thiem and a FH drop shot from Thiem, set up by a BH dtl

Game 12 starts with Nadal forcing Thiem back to baseline, coming in himself as Thiem strikes a tweener and Nadal with a deft BH1/2V winner. Thiem throws in 2 third ball FH winners - a putaway inside-in and a not obvious inside-out

Closer to normal for the set than it is highlights

Tiebreak. Thiem makes 3/8 first serves, Nadal 5/8. And Nadal has the first 2 sets points (1 on serve, 1 on return), before Thiem eventually takes his first to win it

First 4 points go to the returner - Nadal missing a chancey drop shot, than nailing winners from BH dtl from routine position and a smash, then double faulting
4 of the next 5 also go to the returner. The sole exception being Nadal coming away with another smash winner after yet another excellent rally

Thiem missing an easy drop shot from near service line and Nadal coming away with a FH cc pass at net winner puts Nadal up 5-2, with 2 serves to follow
Thiem takes both return points - with an audacious FH inside-out winner and a net point set up by a strong BH dtl to put him at 4-5 and back on serve

Unreturned serve and double fault later, he’s down 5-6, set point
Nadal misses a semi wrong footing BH shot to even, but defends his way to winning the next point and raise another set point at 6-7
Thiem beats him up from the back on it, before finishing with another FH inside-out winner for 7-7
Nadal takes a chance in going for an attacking wide BH cc return and just misses to raise Thiem’s first set point

Strong serve from Nadal on it and a very good defensive return by Thiem, who manages to scrape inot a rally, that he ends with his third FH inside-out winner of the game, this one like the first, a shot from routine position and a particularly good shot

The tennis simmer down to merely normal good tennis in the second set, with both players’ returning against difficult serves dropping

In counts don’t change much (Thiem goes from 61% to 56%, Nadal from 58% to 63%), neither do quality of serves, but unreturned serves shoot up (Thiem from 20% to 40%, Nadal from 25% to 33%)

All the break points and both breaks of the match are in this set. If action is a couple steps down from top drawer first set, it remains high of quality. Nadal eases up on coming to net, Thiem goes for his shots less, on top of less scope for the above, given the rise in freebies

Nadal has break point in opening game. Erased with another FH inside-out winner, finishing a series of brutal FH power hits

Over 19 points between game 2 and 6, there are 13 unreturned serves (6 UEs, 7 FEs). Kinds of serves that were coming back earlier

Two trade breaks in moving from 3-3 to 4-4

Nadal breaks first, wrapping up by anticipating Thiem’s big FH inside-out and dispatching it FH dtl for a winner
Thiem hits back with even more panache. Wide winning BH cc to start the game, dispatched FH inside-out winner from near service to end it after being on defensive for most of point, and in between, a remarkable running BH cc slice pass winner against a sneak approach

Next 2 games both go to deuce
Nadal with a nifty return-approach early in first game, that he finishes with delicate drop FHV winner. He looks to be aggressive with the return later in the game, but misses 2 second returns trying

He’s in big trouble at 0-40 game after, which are match points to boot. And they’re terrible misses that put him in that hold - easy, high BHV that he tries to drop, third ball FH inside-out and a smash. All the shots winner attempts, so sans that little phase, he’s got just 2 winner attempt UEs for the match

Gets out the hole as impressively as he was messy to get into it in the first place

Winning third ball FH dtl, his sole second serve-volley of the match where his drop FHV catches the net chord on its way over for winner erase first 2 break/match points. Thiem misses a routine first return on the third

Spectacular end to the game too, with a forced back Nadal coming up with a lob tweener that forces a difficult, back-pedalling OH and Nadal drills BH dtl ‘pass’ winner from mid-court to finish

Tiebreak soon after. Again, Nadal with better first serve in for it (Thiem 3/5, Nadal 5/6)

Nadal with FH cc pass winner to mini-break open the game. But he follows up with a poor drop shot that Thiem easily deals with at net to level
The critical point is a brilliant, unlikely BH dtl pass winner that puts Thiem ahead 4-3 and he bludgeons his 2 follow-up service points to move to 6-4
Nadal saves first match point with a strong serve, but misses a sharply angled BH cc on the second to bring down the curtain

Summing up, great match from both players
Roughly equal on serve-return - Thiem with slightly stronger serve, Nadal slightly better at making difficult returns

Wonderful, fluid, dual winged rallies, with net play thrown in
Thiem preferring to finish from the back - both after outmanuvering opponent and less often, from routine position. His FH is the deadliest shot on show
Nadal preferring to come to net after outmanuvering Thiem and he volleys exquisitely. And he’s little more consistent from the back, which is background of all the fluid action

All comes out to near even and Thiem takes both tiebreaks to get the win

@7thKingSlam

Stats for the final between Daniil Medvedev and Thiem - Match Stats/Report - Medvedev vs Thiem, Year End Championship final, 2020 | Talk Tennis

 

[7thKingSlam]

I remember a couple things about this match outside the tennis:
1. Nadal caught Thiem practicing the next day, laughed, and said, “you don’t need to practice today.”
2. There were reports that the other players were watching this match in the break room laughing and calling it “PlayStation tennis.”

The stakes feel low here, both were 1-0 and the other two in the group were Tsitsipas (semi-threatening at the time for Thiem, less for Nadal) and Rublev. So the loser would still feel pretty confident escaping the group and that’s what happened; both made semis. As a result this match may go a bit forgotten even compared to Thiem vs Djokovic ATP Finals the year prior, but man it’s a fun one.

Thiem was the most complete version of himself here and overall I thought he played a ridiculous level this ATP Finals outside of some nerves. His point construction as you mentioned was great and he wasn’t brainlessly firing winners left and right. That inside-out forehand was killer in big moments too.

Rafa was showing off his variety this run. He basically won his next match vs Stef off net play in the third set, and in this match I thought he was playing very dynamic and all-court tennis. I think this is one of those moments in his late career where he realized he was truly outmatched from the baseline against a younger, more athletic player, and leaned on his net play to get it done. Other examples off the top of my head would be vs Delpo Wimbledon 2018 QF (the SF too you could argue), vs Tsitsipas in both ATP Finals matches, vs Alcaraz Indian Wells 2022.

This match was so much fun and I’m always finding myself rewatching highlights of it. Also bittersweet since I really wanted one of these two to win the ATP Finals, and both really had their chances against Medvedev (particularly Rafa). I would’ve loved to see this rematch as the final.

Thanks so much for the report on this match Wasp! Was really fun to see you were as high on it as I am.

Edit: https://www.sportskeeda.com/tennis/...-looked-like-playstation-tennis-jurgen-melzer

Quote I mentioned above was from Jurgen Melzer.

 

[MilosRaonicFan]

I recall that the quarterfinal match between these two at the AO that year was also excellent quality.

Thiem played lots of entertaining matches in 2019 & 2020. Pretty much every match against one of the big three delivered in that period (the two Grand Slam finals were probably the two most lackluster).

 

[7thKingSlam]

I recall that the quarterfinal match between these two at the AO that year was also excellent quality.

Thiem played lots of entertaining matches in 2019 & 2020. Pretty much every match against one of the big three delivered in that period (the two Grand Slam finals were probably the two most lackluster).

I really liked the AO QF match. I'm going mostly off memory but I did feel like Rafa's defense wasn't quite up to par even by his post-2018 standards, maybe a bit of fatigue since he had a shortened offseason with the Davis Cup run. But both were hitting great, Thiem had one of the best BH performances I can remember of his (it was like what everyone thinks Wawrinka's BH did to Novak), and really the big difference was clutch play/tiebreaks.
Honestly the way Thiem was hitting that day, I'm not sure Nadal's defense mattered that much.

USO2018 was also a great watch, probably the best overall match of the rivalry.

 

[Waspsting]

Thiem played lots of entertaining matches in 2019 & 2020. Pretty much every match against one of the big three delivered in that period

He has all attributes that'd go into making great matches
Good serve, not so good to serve-bot
Good return, to get a lot of rallies going, but from far back enough that he'd be in reactive position (not neturalizing and throttling like Djokovic)
Fine rallyer, great shot-maker

I was thinking Thiem vs Alcaraz would have been a real run match-up

...Thiem had one of the best BH performances I can remember of his (it was like what everyone thinks Wawrinka's BH did to Novak)

hahahaha - true, true

I got done with the Thiem-Djokovic semi, his BH is pretty special pretty there too
Not sure where to post it. With this? Could go with their '19 match too
Probably deserves a thread of its own (as does this match)

 

[jl809]

I’m glad this match got a write up. Because it was a sort of dead rubber it gets lost among some others in discussions for the great straight set Bo3 matches, and while I don’t think it matches something like the 2012 ATP F final, it’s still a brilliant match

This was Ned’s opportunity, his RG 09 / RG 16, and he blew it (albeit aged 34 at the time, so can cut him some slack). He was deep in his woeful, terrible tiebreak streak against top players on HC at this point, which cost him 2 Thiem matches and a win over Meddy B in the SFs

It is mad to me that Thiem basically ceased to exist on HC ( / anywhere) within 4 months of this match. As usual he saved his best tennis for before the final in a big tournament here, but what a level of best tennis it was.

This was exactly how I had hoped for a “transition” away from Djokodal dominance - to know that even if they played well, they could have matches ripped away from them by these guys being even better. Suddenly no big HC tournament felt safe for them. In reality though this turned out to be rubbish, because the only way Djokodal ended up losing to them from here on out in a big match was when Djoker imploded mentally against Meddy at USO 21. Instead it took 3 years for the transition to happen with Sinneraz

 

[7thKingSlam]

I got done with the Thiem-Djokovic semi, his BH is pretty special pretty there too
Not sure where to post it. With this? Could go with their '19 match too
Probably deserves a thread of its own (as does this match)

Could work well with the 2019 RR match since they often get compared or mentioned side by side. I remember the 2020 match being pretty nervy but both catching their stride later on. The 0-4 comeback was awesome in the final tiebreak. Not quite as good as the 2019 match though which was a straight up offense vs defense bash fest.

Sometimes I wonder if Thiem's OHBH gets underrated. Short peak just like his career in general, but that 2019-2020 BH was seriously delivering in these big matches with lower UE counts and being more stable under pressure than someone like Wawrinka's.

 

[Angrybirdstar]

Sometimes I wonder if Thiem's OHBH gets underrated. Short peak just like his career in general, but that 2019-2020 BH was seriously delivering in these big matches with lower UE counts and being more stable under pressure than someone like Wawrinka's.

i think i've seen some people point out some innovations Thiem made on defense, like being able to occasionally hit a sliding, semi-open stance shot, and i personally think Thiem's BH indoors ended up better than Wawrinka's ever was

 

[7thKingSlam]

i think i've seen some people point out some innovations Thiem made on defense, like being able to occasionally hit a sliding, semi-open stance shot, and i personally think Thiem's BH indoors ended up better than Wawrinka's ever was

I do remember that specific shot coming up often. He might be the player I most remember clearly seeing improvements every year even in his mid-late 20s. He would come back with a much improved slice, volleys, court positioning, back swing, etc. after every offseason.