Match Stats/Report - Thiem vs Zverev, US Open final, 2020

[Waspsting]

Dominic Thiem beat Alexander Zverev 2-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6(6) in the US Open final, 2020 on hard court

It would turn out to be Thiem’s only Slam title from his fourth final. Earlier in the year, he had lost a five set final at Australian Open. Zverev was playing his first Slam final

Thiem won 163 points, Zverev 159

(Note: I’ve made confident guess regarding serve type for 1 point)

Serve Stats
Thiem...
- 1st serve percentage (103/165) 62%
- 1st serve points won (70/103) 68%
- 2nd serve points won (30/62) 48%
- Aces 8
- Double Faults 8
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (37/165) 22%

Zverev...
- 1st serve percentage (101/157) 64%
- 1st serve points won (71/101) 70%
- 2nd serve points won (23/56) 41%
- Aces 15, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 15
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (40/157) 25%

Serve Pattern
Thiem served...
- to FH 55%
- to BH 43%
- to Body 2%

Zverev served...
- to FH 38%
- to BH 56%
- to Body 6%

Return Stats
Thiem made...
- 102 (59 FH, 43 BH), including 14 runaround FHs
- 24 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (6 FH, 4 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 14 Forced (3 FH, 11 BH)
- Return Rate (102/142) 72%

Zverev made...
- 120 (65 FH, 55 BH), including 1 runaround BH
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 29 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (5 FH, 5 BH)
- 19 Forced (12 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (120/157) 76%

Break Points
Thiem 7/13 (8 games)
Zverev 8/18 (10 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Thiem 32 (22 FH, 1 BH, 2 FHV, 3 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 3 OH)
Zverev 35 (18 FH, 3 BH, 4 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 5 BHV, 4 OH)

Thiem's FHs - 6 cc (4 passes), 9 dtl (7 passes - 1 at net), 4 inside-out (1 pass), 1 inside-out/dtl, 1 inside-in, 1 drop shot
- BH pass - 1 cc

- 1 FHV was a non-net, swinging cc pass

Zverev's FHs - 6 cc, 1 cc/inside-in, 4 dtl (1 return), 5 inside-in (1 at net)
- BHs - 3 dtl (2 passes)

- 4 from serve-volley points (1 BHV, 1 OH, 2 FH at net), all first 'volleys'... the OH was on the bounce

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Thiem 76
- 48 Unforced (34 FH, 13 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 FH at net & 1 non-net, swinging FHV
- 28 Forced (17 FH, 10 BH, 1 OH)... with 3 FH running-down-drop-shot at net & the OH was flagrantly forced, on the bounce from baseline against an at net smash
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.1

Zverev 79
- 55 Unforced (32 FH, 19 BH, 2 FHV, 2 BHV)... with 1 BH at net
- 24 Forced (9 FH, 11 BH, 3 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.1

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Thiem was 20/26 (77%) at net, with...
- 1/1 forced back

Zverev was...
- 43/68 (63%) at net, including...
- 15/23 (65%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 11/17 (65%) off 1st serve and...
- 4/6 (67%) off 2nd serve
---
- 0/2 forced back/retreated

Match Report
Zverev loses more than Thiem wins this very nervy match - and not just because of the coming-back-from-2-sets-down thing. His play varies radically - from irresistibly big serving backed up with commanding groundies allied to insurance approaches and comfortably returning to ordinary serving with large wades of double faults and inconsistent, unpressuring groundstrokes. Thiem’s serve isn’t as strong and he largely plays along from behind the baseline. Who gets better of things at any given time is upto Zverev and he’s even poorer when getting short end of stick as he is impressive when on top. Court is quickish

This is about the most nervous match you’ll see. From both players. Both were seeking their first Slam. Thiem’s previous 3 finals had been against Rafael Nadal at French Open and Novak Djokovic at Australian. Alex Zverev at US Open must seem a gift from the Heavens after that. And Zverev, having been touted as a hot ticket for 3 years or so, was in his first final, having displayed much hotness in smaller tournaments but a constant disappointment at Slams

Both players fails to serve out the match in 5th set. Zverev at 5-3 in a terrible game, Thiem at 6-5 in a less bad one. Zverev with a sloppy tiebreak too to finally lose it

A contest of who can play less badly at the end. If the tennis is poor, it does remain intriguing. Both players serves are ineffective by the end. Zverev’s worse than ineffective as he’s double faulting regularly. Thiem’s slicing every BH, seemingly not upto driving it, though he continues swinging at FHs. Neither player are reliable of ground consistency

Thiem not double faulting on top of that gives him edge. Its not a pretty picture when ‘not double faulting’ proves to be critical difference

As with most 5 setters, trends of play changes over time. Match long stats however does go long way in capturing snap shot summary of match

Both players with same number of aces as double faults (Thiem 8, Zver 15), in about same number of first and second serves. Zver both better and worse. In this day and age, having healthy aces is common and its something he can expect to dish out. The double faults, are not

Baseline to baseline winners -
Thiem 10, Zver 16
All but 1 of of them are FHs. Both players looking to FH to do damage and stay steady of BH, and Zver getting better of the doing damaging part

BH UEs - Thiem 13, Zver 19
FH UEs - Thiem 33, Zver 32
Thiem getting better of the staying steady of BH part

Net Points - Thiem 26, Zver 68
Winning rate at net - Thiem 77%, Zver 63%
Zver coming in regularly, Thiem not. Good winning rates for both players

Putting all that together, Zver more damaging of FH, Zver using net effectively and Thiem steadier of the BH. Would favour Zver to come out on top

Throw in unreturned serves - Thiem 22%, Zver 25%, and now, more so

Double faults - Thiem 8, Zver 15
That’s the big difference. Thiem ultimately wins 4 more points

Zver winning 2 more points than he serves, Thiem 2 less
Break points - Thiem 7/13 (8 games), Zver 8/18 (10 games)

Also pointing to Zver with better of things on whole. Quite a choke to not see it through to victory

Serve & Return
Zver with bigger serve and both players returning from far back. Both players’ serving force declines as match goes on and by end, neither are too damaging

Zver returning more comfily. Very comfily at his best, and that’s when Thiem’s serving his best of force. Thiem struggles to return more or less throughout. He’s facing a big serve, but he’s also returning from the fence

So Zver with bigger, more effective serve and Zver able to return more cozily. Advantage Zver, but for…
Double faults - Thiem 8, Zver 15
Or Thiem 13%, Zver 27% off second serves

Double faults outdo Zver’s +3 advantage on freebies, and pushes Thiem to +4 points in points won via unreturned serves + double faults
Zver not infrequently banging down huge second serves, virtual first serves. And sometimes rolling them in as slowly as can do, 70-80mph stuff

 

[Waspsting]

Whatever he does, he’s prone to missing second serves. He can afford the big ones when in count is high, but tends to go with the very slow ones when its not
Big second serves are almost always down the middle. They’re not so overwhelming of power that with full knowledge of where they’re headed, Thiem wouldn’t fancy his chances of making the returns at least.

When Zver rolls in second serves, Thiem remains on the fence to return. One would think he’d fancy having an early rip at 70-80mph offerings and pressure of his so doing might effect Zver adversely. Than again, whatever internal pressure Zver feels (or just plain, bad serving) is apparently enough to get him to double fault

Worth considering under-arm serving for Zver. Not to try to sneak a cheap point, but just to get the second serve in. If it hasn’t occurred to him with Thiem on the fence, he’s very dim. So most likely, its just completely outside his code of how to play tennis

5th set tiebreak in first Slam final. If ever a situation tested a players adherence to their code of how tennis is played, this would be it. Zver doubles twice in that ‘breaker

On flip side, a hefty serve from Thiem and Zver returns it comfortably all match. Thiem directs 55% to FH, as players tend to against the very strong BH’ed Zver. Not a bad move in that Zver returns even more comfily off the BH, but FH isn’t troubled either

Gist - Zver with bigger serve, Zver returning comfortably while Thiem often struggles and Zver double faulting down a storm to cancel out his other advantages to leave serve-return duel about equal

Play - Baseline & Net
In context of grindy baseline action, Zver is the more aggressive, particularly with his FH. Thiem smacks FHs hard without stepping up and looking for winners with it

Zver even moves over to take FHs, with FH inside-in his weapon. Plays fewer inside-outs, and they’re more just neutral shots to BH than attacking ones. Thiem backs away too, which is normal enough for him and his bigger FHs are inside-out. Along with usual cc exchanges. When he gets timid, Zver pulls back on FHs some, like a boxer pulling punches

Winners - Thiem 32, Zver 35
Errors Forced - Thiem 24, Zver 28
UEs - Thiem 48, Zver 55

Winners/UE differential - Thiem -16, Zver -20
Winners + Errors Forced/UE differentials - both +8

Its not good action, but not as bad as all the double faulting makes match seem. For grindy baseline match, the winner/UE differential is in decent range. Djokovic and Andy Murray have dished out worse

Neutral UEs - Thiem 24, Zver 34

Crucial for less aggressive player to get better of this. Fair amount of sloppiness from Zver when he’s regularly missing routine groundies in not long rallies. On up side, he defends well against Thiem’s slightly wide, ball-bashing pressuring-cum-moderately attacking play. And when he’s on, he’s very secure

Ground to ground winners
- FHs - Zver FH 15 (including 1 return), Thiem 10
- BHs - Zver 1

Just 1 BH winner in baseline rally. BH play does feature good hitting. Zver is typically clinically easy in his ball striking, Thiem more laborious but hitting near as well. Some slicing and near end, Thiem’s apparently too tired to do anything but slice, which he does well and keeps ball low

BH UEs - Thiem 13, Zver 18 (excluding a net shot)
Good outcome for Thiem against the more powerful and contained Zver BH. Forays into sloppiness by Zver includes trickles of BH UEs

FH UEs - Thiem 33 (excluding a net shot), Zver 32

… with attacking UEs - both 15
And winner attempt UEs - Thiem 10, Zver 7
Thiem with just 1 UE at net (a FH), Zver 5 (including a BH)

Zver doing very well going for his winners from the back and considerably better than Thiem. When he’s on, Zver plays very nicely. He’s got 7 FH cc winners (Thiem 2), 3 dtl (Thiem 2) and 4 inside-in (Thiem 1), with most of his 7 winner attempt UEs are net shots, while virtually all of Thiem’s 10 are groundies

Much of it flows out of big serve drawing weak return. Once rally gets set (either neutral or Zver leading), Zver goes into clinical hitting, grinding mode. Not a shot-making match from him, but he’s done well finishing from back. And that’s second string of his offence

First string is net play, starting with 15/23 or 65% points won serve-volleying. Mostly about big serves, with not much volleying needed
Rallying to net - Zver is 28/45 or 62%, Thiem 20/26 or 77%

Again, more about the commanding approach shots than good volleying from Zver. Comes in after serve draws soft return, comes in after outhitting Thiem from back; he does not manufacture approaches or otherwise come in when he’s likely to face strong passes

On the ‘volley’, Zver with 16 winners, 4 UEs, 4 FEs
On the pass, Thiem with 14 winners and majority of his 28 FEs would be passes

63% winning rate is good for Zver. Its not high for the kinds of approaches he makes
To compare, Thiem’s 20/26 includes 3 running-down-drop-shot at net FEs (points where he’s forced to net), so he’s at least 20/23 in non-drop shot related approaches, almost perfect. Harder to maintain that kind of winning rate coming in more, as Zver does, but kinds of approaches Thiem makes are similar to Zver’s

Zver pretty good at putting away what’s there to be so treated. Still, not infrequent bad volley, plonking it around middle of court where Thiem can take a good shot
Thiem belting any pass he has a stable look at that would be challenging to handle on pace grounds alone. His power does not invite net approaches
Zver’s success at net could do with a little bump, but he’s done well, and its a sound way to finish from the positions he creates. Probably better than trying to finish from back

And Thiem’s game? He doesn’t look for winners from the back too much. Partially because Zver’s hitting is good enough to deny him good chances. Clearly, he’s not looking to come to net with about 4 voluntary approaches per set. He ball-bashes from couple paces behind baseline, looking to overload Zver’s shot tolerance. Does it off both sides, FH more

Not good with the shot-making - 10 winner attempt UEs, just 10 winners in baseline rallies - so good idea not to overindulge it
If he’s outhit slightly in BH rallies, he’s more secure as indicated earlier
FH rallies are a good contest when both are strong, with Zver edging them. When Zver’s level drops, Thiem gains hitting advantage and rips FHs from behind baseline

 

[Waspsting]

8 net winners from Thiem, so he’s forced about 12 passing errors, leaving about 8 forced in baseline rallies. Some good scampering and shot resistance from Zver in keeping it that low, not great attacking progression by Thiem in not following it up (for example, by striking winners from back or coming to net to finish)

Largely, he wins points via Zver ground UEs. Outgrinding Zver

With attacking UEs equal at 14, Thiem having 10 winner attempt UEs to Zver’s 7 and FH UEs virtually equal (Thiem 33, Zver 32), Thiem’s gotten better of grinding or basic consistency off both wings, with larger lot of Zver’s FH UEs being neutrals

When Zver takes to pulling FHs, Thiem gains lead position in rallies and his ripped FHs give Zver a defensive workout, but Thiem not actually very good at seeing such points through to closure

Gist - messy stuff, with Zver’s level shaping trend of play at any give time

When he’s on, he’s secure and clinically solid of shot from the back. Pretty good FH finishing and smart use of net. Not great volleying, but doesn’t need to be as he comes in off good approaches (set up by serve or from outhitting opponent from back). Good, strong tennis
When he’s not, he’s apt to be sloppy with ground UEs and gets outhit from the back, but he does scamper and defend well

Thiem counting on Zver giving up errors from back largely. Keeps his shot-making in check wisely since he isn’t able to finish points that way regularly (which for him, is both an achievement and not to be taken for granted). Steady BH, that handles Zver’s greater power well while remaining most secure shot on show

Match Progression
Wonderful opening set from Zverev. Blasting big serves at 68% in-count, hammering FHs, including move-over FHs, striking the ball cleanly and using net smartly. Thiem serves at 37% first serves in and wins 5/17 second serve points, with Zver returning cozily and thorough from the baseline

Zver breaks for 2-1, starting with a BHV winner and ending with another net point set up by a big FH cc. Breaks again for 5-2, with Thiem double faulting couple times and Zver smacking a normal position FH inside-in winner against a slice

Thiem’s in count improves to 68% in second set, but Zver continues to return comfortably. Thiem continues to struggle to return. He can reach the serves in time, but they’re either just too powerful, or he misses returns from stable position

Its 4-1 Zverev, with Thiem’s only hold being 10 point game in which he saves a break point
Zver with a good game to gain first break, where he deftly puts a half-volley in play, and Thiem can’t make the pass, nails a blistering FH dtl winner (per commentary, shot goes at 103mph), and out-toughs Thiem to draw couple FH errors

And breaks again, with Thiem’s FH coughing up UEs
In between the break, the shadow of what’s to come. Zver double faults twice in consolidating first break, but serve-volleys his way through to hold

Thiem ekes out a 12 point hold, saving 3 break/set points for 2-5, with couple missed second returns helping him out

Terrible game from Zver to be broken serving for the set, with 2 more double faults and easy missed FHV, though Thiem finishes stylishly with a FHV set up by a good FH inside-out against a deep ball
Zver starts his second attempt at serving out with another double fault, but rest of game is high end from Zver, with strong serves, serve-volleys and couple winning dtl shots (1 off each wing). 2 sets to love

Things start getting nervy in third set, with a trade of terrible breaks at the start. Thiem goes first - missing all kinds of FHs - third ball winner attempt, at (after Zver did very well to stay in point earlier), a swinging FHV from no-man’s land and just a normal one to be broken. Zver responds with pretty game of his own to hand the break back - couple of doubles and on break point, missing a BH at net serve-volleying

Set stays on serve but Zver’s quality falls to Thiem’s standard. Doesn’t look for net, is a little slower in retrieving and starts missing kinds of groundies he’d been very solid on upto now
Another bad game by Zver ends the set - double fault, missing routine slice and missing routine third ball FH

Action slips further Thiem’s way in fourth set. Zver takes to serving gentle second serves and pulling back on FHs. Thiem’s able to return more comfortably and swings hard at FHs from behind the baseline. Zver’s under pressure to handle the power hits, which would probably be overwhelming if Thiem were to step up more

Zver comes out of 15-40 to hold for 3-3. He delivers a 76mph second serve right after saving the second break point
He’s broken next go around. A bad FH at net first ‘volley’ serve-volleying sees him get passed early in the game, he’s passed again after being drawn in by a net chord pop up ball and of course, there’s a double fault. The attacking FH inside-in he misses to lose the game lands half way up the net. Thiem serves out to love and its onto decider

It turns out to be a very nervy affair, and stamina is probably also a factor. Neither player can serve powerfully anymore. By the end, Thiem can only slice BHs. Zver’s troubles seem to be more about nerves than physical weakness

Trade of breaks to start. Zver loses serve to 15 double faulting and missing FHs. Hits right back with Thiem double faulting on break point, brought up by a superb Zver running BH dtl pass winner
Smartly, Zver steels himself to come come to net, in a way he’d foregone in previous two sets. Hits a lovely FH1/2V winner doing so middle of set and it eventually gets him a pressured break and 5-3

Choke of a would-be serve-out by Zver. 3 routine ground errors (2 of them third balls) set him down 15-40. Saves first break point by drawing return error serve-volleying but misses routine FHV trying again next points. At least no double faults

Thiem unleashes 3 consecutive FH dtl winners across 2 games (2 of them passes) and goes on to break with Zver outhit and blinky from the baseline, and now its Thiem’s turn to serve for the title at 6-5

Tough game by Zver to break. Holds his nerve in hitting multiple smashes after taking net behind strong FH dtl, toughs out baselien rallies and breaks with a very good FH inside-in winner, reminiscent of the types of shots he was pulling off earlier in the match.

Tiebreak. Not a bad one, bar 2 double faults from Zver which ultimately sinks him. Thiem seemingly sends down strong serves with what fumes he has left (he’d been serving softly for quite awhile leading upto the ‘breaker). And manages to surprisingly lash a strong BH pass (he’d also been exclusively slicing BHs for awhile) to set up a follow-up passing winner

Also blinks up 3 FH UEs (with FH dtl pass winner in between), including 2 inside-in misses starting 6-4, 2 match points. Its after that that he’s able to muster a strong BH pass that ultimately leads to him passing Zver FH inside-out and BH cc miss by Zver finally ends things

Summing up, Alex Zverev’s match to win or lose
Winning, he serves big, returns a good serve cozily, is strong and stable off the ground with the FH standing out offensively and uses net smartly
Losing, he double faults regularly, is sloppy off the ground with FH pulled back and gets net shy to an extent

He does defend well throughout

Thiem returns from the fence, even against Zverev’s 70-80mph second serves. Against a winning Zverev, is outplayed from the baseline off both wings and there’s not much he can do against the huge serves and insurance approaches of his opponent
Against losing Zverev, gets better of baseline rallies with BH steadier and FH able to let rip, albeit from behind the baseline. Unforced errors off the ground and most critically, double faults from opponent sees him to victory

Lot of nerves and choking involved in the match, mainly but not exclusively from Zverev

 

[RS]

I wonder if this match wasn't as bad as claimed.

 

[objection_]

I wonder if this match wasn't as bad as claimed.

Maybe if you fell asleep after the first two sets

 

[aldeayeah]

The Match That Should Not Be

 

[weakera]

As awful as this match was I am glad Thiem gets to call himself a GS champion.

 

[Dominic & Andrey]

I am (or was) a Thiem fan but sadly the fact that the match that made him a GS champion is not even close to being one of my favorite matches from him will always remain frustrating somehow. The awful level + the empty crowd, it felt so anticlimactic. But at that time I really thought he would win at least two or three more slams. I can't fathom it was four years ago already. I hate to say it but he really really got extremely lucky that Zverev is such a gigantic mental midget, because Z was completely blowing Dominic off the court until he collapsed. Dominic's level against Med in the SF was nowhere to be seen at any point.

 

[NeutralFan]

Z was a better player and should have won.

 

[Waspsting]

I wonder if this match wasn't as bad as claimed.

how is it claimed?
Last set is like watching two couldn't-get-laid-in-a-whorehouse guys having a picking-up girls contest. Almost crinege worthy

5th sets are usually not good. If players are playing their best (for the match) in 5th set, they've probably underperformed before that

Could you give some examples of what you consider bad matches?

I am (or was) a Thiem fan but sadly the fact that the match that made him a GS champion is not even close to being one of my favorite matches from him will always remain frustrating somehow. The awful level + the empty crowd, it felt so anticlimactic.

won't argue with 'awful level' take
will add, that specifally for Thiem, not doing anything stupid (especially when down 2 sets) is not to be taken for granted

Many (all?) of his best matches are zoning showings of going for winners all the time, and nailing them
Stars would have to align just so to to pull that off for first Slam title, given good opponent and best of 5 sets. How many times has he played 5 sets of his best tennis?

He plays his best tennis, match is unlikely to go to 5

 

[Tennfan123]

I enjoyed this match.
For all the wrong reasons of course.