Stan Wawrinka beat Roger Federer 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-2 in the Monte Carlo final, 2014 on clay
It was Wawrinka's first and to date, only Masters title and Federer's to date fourth runner-up finish at the event he has yet to win. Federer had won the pair's last 11 encounters
Wawrinka won 102 points, Federer 94
Serve Stats
Wawrinka...
- 1st serve percentage (54/93) 58%
- 1st serve points won (43/54) 80%
- 2nd serve points won (22/39) 56%
- Aces 5, Service Winners 2
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (26/93) 28%
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (68/103) 66%
- 1st serve points won (50/68) 74%
- 2nd serve points won (16/35) 46%
- Aces 3
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (21/103) 20%
Serve Pattern
Wawrinka served...
- to FH 27%
- to BH 69%
- to Body 3%
Federer served...
- to FH 37%
- to BH 61%
- to Body 2%
Return Stats
Wawrinka made...
- 81 (32 FH, 49 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 2 runaround BHs
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (1 FH, 6 BH)
- 11 Forced (4 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (81/102) 79%
Federer made...
- 65 (14 FH, 51 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 19 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (3 FH, 6 BH), including 1 drop-return attempt
- 10 Forced (6 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (65/91) 71%
Break Points
Wawrinka 3/7 (5 games)
Federer 2/3 (3 games)
Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Wawrinka 25 (7 FH, 8 BH, 5 FHV, 4 OH, 1 BHOH)
Federer 19 (6 FH, 4 BH, 3 FHV, 3 BHV, 2 OH, 1 BHOH)
Wawrinka's FHs - 3 cc (1 at net), 1 dtl pass at net, 2 inside-out and 1 longline pass
- BHs - 3 cc, 4 dtl (1 pass, 1 at net) and 1 running-down-drop-shot cc at net
- 2 from serve-volley points (1 FHV, 1 OH), both first volleys
- 1 other FHV can reasonably be called an OH
- 1 other OH was on the full near the baseline
- the BHOH was a drop shot (effectively and possibly intentionally)
Federer's FHs - 2 cc, 1 dtl pass, 1 inside-out, 1 inside-in and 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl pass at net (not clean)
- BHs - 2 cc passes, 1 dtl pass and 1 longline (bad bounce related)
- 2 from serve-volley points - a first volley FHV and a second volley BHV
- 1 other FHV was a swinging, inside-out shot
Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Wawrinka 52
- 26 Unforced (13 FH, 12 BH, 1 OH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- 26 Forced (13 FH, 12 BH, 1 BHV)... with 1 BH at net & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.1
Federer 50
- 34 Unforced (15 FH, 17 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)... with 1 FH at net
- 16 Forced (6 FH, 7 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BH1/2V)... with 1 non-net FHV
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.7
(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Wawrinka was...
- 18/29 (62%) at net, including...
- 3/4 (75%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
Federer was...
- 29/38 (76%) at net, including...
- 6/7 (86%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 4/5 (80%) off 1st serve and...
- 2/2 off 2nd serve
Match Report
Not a good match but a well paced one from Wawrinka. He has large power advantage from the back but is apt to randomly flounder with errors for no apparent reason (i.e. not because he's trying to hit too hard). Federer's groundstrokes are not damaging, is also apt to miss (combination of looseness in missing regulation balls and to smaller degree, being outhit) but he shows great net instincts to make up for his handicaps from the back
Push comes to shove, Stan can probably overpower Fed from the back with some comfort. He flounders with errors trying in first set - and loses it. Tones it down in the second to keep ball in play and hold serve more safely and plays a very good tiebreak to even match. And in final set, turns on the power to overwhelm Fed
Other than the last set from Stan, neither player plays well, and UEs are forefront of action. Fed's below par returning is another significant factor in the match
Points of interest in the match -
i) Serve-Return Complex
Unreturned rates read - Stan 28%, Fed 20%
Stan has the more powerful serve. He outaces Fed 5-3 (also service winners 2-0), while serving 54 first serves to Fed's 68. In other words, Stan sending down an unreturnable every 7.7 first serve to Fed's 22.7
Stan returns more solidly too. 7/18 or 39% of Stan's return errors have been marked unforced. For Fed, number is 9/19 or 47%. Lot of 2nd serve returns missed by Fed and even the FEs have a good lot on the more makeable side. And a good lot of the 1st returns he makes are poked back somehow to about the service line, leaving Stan in complete command
Without setting the sky alight, Stan returns normally and surely. Not many easy third balls for Fed to get stuck into
Big advantage Stan
ii) Baseline rallies, consistency and hitting
Baseline UEs read Stan 24, Fed 31 and UEFI's read Stan 48.1, Fed 44.7
Not only is Stan more secure, but he's missing when being aggressive. Fed's missing routine shots
Big advantage Stan. Fed's hopes of gaining parity rests on the timing of the errors, which, as tends to be with Stan, isn't reliable. In first set, run of errors costs Stan the break and the set. And those aren't aggressive errors - just usual Stan stuff off going off now and then. Fed's errors come at a pretty steady rate, a function of natural error rate
Both players very balanced across wings in their consistency - Stan 12 UEs off each side, Fed 14 FHs, 17 BHs
Throw in clear hitting advantage for Stan. He's able to hit through the court damagingly off both sides. Fed isn't, and his shots look almost puny at times and certainly in comparison to Stan
For Stan, BH cc can put Fed on defensive or even go for winners (he has 3). Fed's is a neutral shot and loose. 4-6 mishits/shanks included. He doesn't slice much, though he's able to keep ball low enough when he does to curb Stan's power hitting. Probably worth a shot, given his trailing both hitting and consistency
Even Fed's FH inside-outs are essentially neutral or at most, slightly pressuring shots. Slightly pressuring is a good starting ploy as defence isn't Stan's strong hold and persistently pressuring shots are likely to draw errors from him. Fed isn't 'persistent' and falls back to neutral quickly enough. Meanwhile, Stan's BH cc's are more powerful than Fed's FH inside-outs
Same story on FH - Stan potentially damaging, Fed not
Essentially, Fed plays a keep-ball-in-court (not too well, he's error prone) and see-what-happens game from the baseline. More often than not, he's reacting and Stan leading. He'd need to be a wall or have Stan mess up pressing too much for that to be effective. The former doesn't happen, the latter does across different parts of match
Stan looks to play a power hitting, beat down game. Its likely to work as Fed's defences and movements aren't great either. As long as Stan can keep his errors down, he should be good to go
Not much wrong with his power baselining. He has loose spurts neutrally, not trying to hit too big. Normal for him
In short, Stan with substantial advantages on serve, return and off the ground. What does that leave Fed with?
It was Wawrinka's first and to date, only Masters title and Federer's to date fourth runner-up finish at the event he has yet to win. Federer had won the pair's last 11 encounters
Wawrinka won 102 points, Federer 94
Serve Stats
Wawrinka...
- 1st serve percentage (54/93) 58%
- 1st serve points won (43/54) 80%
- 2nd serve points won (22/39) 56%
- Aces 5, Service Winners 2
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (26/93) 28%
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (68/103) 66%
- 1st serve points won (50/68) 74%
- 2nd serve points won (16/35) 46%
- Aces 3
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (21/103) 20%
Serve Pattern
Wawrinka served...
- to FH 27%
- to BH 69%
- to Body 3%
Federer served...
- to FH 37%
- to BH 61%
- to Body 2%
Return Stats
Wawrinka made...
- 81 (32 FH, 49 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 2 runaround BHs
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (1 FH, 6 BH)
- 11 Forced (4 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (81/102) 79%
Federer made...
- 65 (14 FH, 51 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 19 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (3 FH, 6 BH), including 1 drop-return attempt
- 10 Forced (6 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (65/91) 71%
Break Points
Wawrinka 3/7 (5 games)
Federer 2/3 (3 games)
Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Wawrinka 25 (7 FH, 8 BH, 5 FHV, 4 OH, 1 BHOH)
Federer 19 (6 FH, 4 BH, 3 FHV, 3 BHV, 2 OH, 1 BHOH)
Wawrinka's FHs - 3 cc (1 at net), 1 dtl pass at net, 2 inside-out and 1 longline pass
- BHs - 3 cc, 4 dtl (1 pass, 1 at net) and 1 running-down-drop-shot cc at net
- 2 from serve-volley points (1 FHV, 1 OH), both first volleys
- 1 other FHV can reasonably be called an OH
- 1 other OH was on the full near the baseline
- the BHOH was a drop shot (effectively and possibly intentionally)
Federer's FHs - 2 cc, 1 dtl pass, 1 inside-out, 1 inside-in and 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl pass at net (not clean)
- BHs - 2 cc passes, 1 dtl pass and 1 longline (bad bounce related)
- 2 from serve-volley points - a first volley FHV and a second volley BHV
- 1 other FHV was a swinging, inside-out shot
Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Wawrinka 52
- 26 Unforced (13 FH, 12 BH, 1 OH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- 26 Forced (13 FH, 12 BH, 1 BHV)... with 1 BH at net & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.1
Federer 50
- 34 Unforced (15 FH, 17 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)... with 1 FH at net
- 16 Forced (6 FH, 7 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BH1/2V)... with 1 non-net FHV
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.7
(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Wawrinka was...
- 18/29 (62%) at net, including...
- 3/4 (75%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
Federer was...
- 29/38 (76%) at net, including...
- 6/7 (86%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 4/5 (80%) off 1st serve and...
- 2/2 off 2nd serve
Match Report
Not a good match but a well paced one from Wawrinka. He has large power advantage from the back but is apt to randomly flounder with errors for no apparent reason (i.e. not because he's trying to hit too hard). Federer's groundstrokes are not damaging, is also apt to miss (combination of looseness in missing regulation balls and to smaller degree, being outhit) but he shows great net instincts to make up for his handicaps from the back
Push comes to shove, Stan can probably overpower Fed from the back with some comfort. He flounders with errors trying in first set - and loses it. Tones it down in the second to keep ball in play and hold serve more safely and plays a very good tiebreak to even match. And in final set, turns on the power to overwhelm Fed
Other than the last set from Stan, neither player plays well, and UEs are forefront of action. Fed's below par returning is another significant factor in the match
Points of interest in the match -
i) Serve-Return Complex
Unreturned rates read - Stan 28%, Fed 20%
Stan has the more powerful serve. He outaces Fed 5-3 (also service winners 2-0), while serving 54 first serves to Fed's 68. In other words, Stan sending down an unreturnable every 7.7 first serve to Fed's 22.7
Stan returns more solidly too. 7/18 or 39% of Stan's return errors have been marked unforced. For Fed, number is 9/19 or 47%. Lot of 2nd serve returns missed by Fed and even the FEs have a good lot on the more makeable side. And a good lot of the 1st returns he makes are poked back somehow to about the service line, leaving Stan in complete command
Without setting the sky alight, Stan returns normally and surely. Not many easy third balls for Fed to get stuck into
Big advantage Stan
ii) Baseline rallies, consistency and hitting
Baseline UEs read Stan 24, Fed 31 and UEFI's read Stan 48.1, Fed 44.7
Not only is Stan more secure, but he's missing when being aggressive. Fed's missing routine shots
Big advantage Stan. Fed's hopes of gaining parity rests on the timing of the errors, which, as tends to be with Stan, isn't reliable. In first set, run of errors costs Stan the break and the set. And those aren't aggressive errors - just usual Stan stuff off going off now and then. Fed's errors come at a pretty steady rate, a function of natural error rate
Both players very balanced across wings in their consistency - Stan 12 UEs off each side, Fed 14 FHs, 17 BHs
Throw in clear hitting advantage for Stan. He's able to hit through the court damagingly off both sides. Fed isn't, and his shots look almost puny at times and certainly in comparison to Stan
For Stan, BH cc can put Fed on defensive or even go for winners (he has 3). Fed's is a neutral shot and loose. 4-6 mishits/shanks included. He doesn't slice much, though he's able to keep ball low enough when he does to curb Stan's power hitting. Probably worth a shot, given his trailing both hitting and consistency
Even Fed's FH inside-outs are essentially neutral or at most, slightly pressuring shots. Slightly pressuring is a good starting ploy as defence isn't Stan's strong hold and persistently pressuring shots are likely to draw errors from him. Fed isn't 'persistent' and falls back to neutral quickly enough. Meanwhile, Stan's BH cc's are more powerful than Fed's FH inside-outs
Same story on FH - Stan potentially damaging, Fed not
Essentially, Fed plays a keep-ball-in-court (not too well, he's error prone) and see-what-happens game from the baseline. More often than not, he's reacting and Stan leading. He'd need to be a wall or have Stan mess up pressing too much for that to be effective. The former doesn't happen, the latter does across different parts of match
Stan looks to play a power hitting, beat down game. Its likely to work as Fed's defences and movements aren't great either. As long as Stan can keep his errors down, he should be good to go
Not much wrong with his power baselining. He has loose spurts neutrally, not trying to hit too big. Normal for him
In short, Stan with substantial advantages on serve, return and off the ground. What does that leave Fed with?