Match Stats/Report - Wawrinka vs Federer, Monte Carlo final, 2014


Hall of Fame
Stan Wawrinka beat Roger Federer 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-2 in the Monte Carlo final, 2014 on clay

It was Wawrinka's first and to date, only Masters title and Federer's to date fourth runner-up finish at the event he has yet to win. Federer had won the pair's last 11 encounters

Wawrinka won 102 points, Federer 94

Serve Stats
- 1st serve percentage (54/93) 58%
- 1st serve points won (43/54) 80%
- 2nd serve points won (22/39) 56%
- Aces 5, Service Winners 2
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (26/93) 28%

- 1st serve percentage (68/103) 66%
- 1st serve points won (50/68) 74%
- 2nd serve points won (16/35) 46%
- Aces 3
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (21/103) 20%

Serve Pattern
Wawrinka served...
- to FH 27%
- to BH 69%
- to Body 3%

Federer served...
- to FH 37%
- to BH 61%
- to Body 2%

Return Stats
Wawrinka made...
- 81 (32 FH, 49 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 2 runaround BHs
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (1 FH, 6 BH)
- 11 Forced (4 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (81/102) 79%

Federer made...
- 65 (14 FH, 51 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 19 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (3 FH, 6 BH), including 1 drop-return attempt
- 10 Forced (6 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (65/91) 71%

Break Points
Wawrinka 3/7 (5 games)
Federer 2/3 (3 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Wawrinka 25 (7 FH, 8 BH, 5 FHV, 4 OH, 1 BHOH)
Federer 19 (6 FH, 4 BH, 3 FHV, 3 BHV, 2 OH, 1 BHOH)

Wawrinka's FHs - 3 cc (1 at net), 1 dtl pass at net, 2 inside-out and 1 longline pass
- BHs - 3 cc, 4 dtl (1 pass, 1 at net) and 1 running-down-drop-shot cc at net

- 2 from serve-volley points (1 FHV, 1 OH), both first volleys

- 1 other FHV can reasonably be called an OH
- 1 other OH was on the full near the baseline
- the BHOH was a drop shot (effectively and possibly intentionally)

Federer's FHs - 2 cc, 1 dtl pass, 1 inside-out, 1 inside-in and 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl pass at net (not clean)
- BHs - 2 cc passes, 1 dtl pass and 1 longline (bad bounce related)

- 2 from serve-volley points - a first volley FHV and a second volley BHV

- 1 other FHV was a swinging, inside-out shot

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Wawrinka 52
- 26 Unforced (13 FH, 12 BH, 1 OH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- 26 Forced (13 FH, 12 BH, 1 BHV)... with 1 BH at net & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.1

Federer 50
- 34 Unforced (15 FH, 17 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)... with 1 FH at net
- 16 Forced (6 FH, 7 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BH1/2V)... with 1 non-net FHV
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.7

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Wawrinka was...
- 18/29 (62%) at net, including...
- 3/4 (75%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves

Federer was...
- 29/38 (76%) at net, including...
- 6/7 (86%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 4/5 (80%) off 1st serve and...
- 2/2 off 2nd serve

Match Report
Not a good match but a well paced one from Wawrinka. He has large power advantage from the back but is apt to randomly flounder with errors for no apparent reason (i.e. not because he's trying to hit too hard). Federer's groundstrokes are not damaging, is also apt to miss (combination of looseness in missing regulation balls and to smaller degree, being outhit) but he shows great net instincts to make up for his handicaps from the back

Push comes to shove, Stan can probably overpower Fed from the back with some comfort. He flounders with errors trying in first set - and loses it. Tones it down in the second to keep ball in play and hold serve more safely and plays a very good tiebreak to even match. And in final set, turns on the power to overwhelm Fed

Other than the last set from Stan, neither player plays well, and UEs are forefront of action. Fed's below par returning is another significant factor in the match

Points of interest in the match -

i) Serve-Return Complex
Unreturned rates read - Stan 28%, Fed 20%

Stan has the more powerful serve. He outaces Fed 5-3 (also service winners 2-0), while serving 54 first serves to Fed's 68. In other words, Stan sending down an unreturnable every 7.7 first serve to Fed's 22.7

Stan returns more solidly too. 7/18 or 39% of Stan's return errors have been marked unforced. For Fed, number is 9/19 or 47%. Lot of 2nd serve returns missed by Fed and even the FEs have a good lot on the more makeable side. And a good lot of the 1st returns he makes are poked back somehow to about the service line, leaving Stan in complete command

Without setting the sky alight, Stan returns normally and surely. Not many easy third balls for Fed to get stuck into

Big advantage Stan

ii) Baseline rallies, consistency and hitting
Baseline UEs read Stan 24, Fed 31 and UEFI's read Stan 48.1, Fed 44.7

Not only is Stan more secure, but he's missing when being aggressive. Fed's missing routine shots

Big advantage Stan. Fed's hopes of gaining parity rests on the timing of the errors, which, as tends to be with Stan, isn't reliable. In first set, run of errors costs Stan the break and the set. And those aren't aggressive errors - just usual Stan stuff off going off now and then. Fed's errors come at a pretty steady rate, a function of natural error rate

Both players very balanced across wings in their consistency - Stan 12 UEs off each side, Fed 14 FHs, 17 BHs

Throw in clear hitting advantage for Stan. He's able to hit through the court damagingly off both sides. Fed isn't, and his shots look almost puny at times and certainly in comparison to Stan

For Stan, BH cc can put Fed on defensive or even go for winners (he has 3). Fed's is a neutral shot and loose. 4-6 mishits/shanks included. He doesn't slice much, though he's able to keep ball low enough when he does to curb Stan's power hitting. Probably worth a shot, given his trailing both hitting and consistency

Even Fed's FH inside-outs are essentially neutral or at most, slightly pressuring shots. Slightly pressuring is a good starting ploy as defence isn't Stan's strong hold and persistently pressuring shots are likely to draw errors from him. Fed isn't 'persistent' and falls back to neutral quickly enough. Meanwhile, Stan's BH cc's are more powerful than Fed's FH inside-outs

Same story on FH - Stan potentially damaging, Fed not

Essentially, Fed plays a keep-ball-in-court (not too well, he's error prone) and see-what-happens game from the baseline. More often than not, he's reacting and Stan leading. He'd need to be a wall or have Stan mess up pressing too much for that to be effective. The former doesn't happen, the latter does across different parts of match

Stan looks to play a power hitting, beat down game. Its likely to work as Fed's defences and movements aren't great either. As long as Stan can keep his errors down, he should be good to go
Not much wrong with his power baselining. He has loose spurts neutrally, not trying to hit too big. Normal for him

In short, Stan with substantial advantages on serve, return and off the ground. What does that leave Fed with?


Hall of Fame
iii) Net play
Fed is 29/38 or 76% at net, including 7 serve-volleys (5 firsts, 2 seconds). For that matter, Stan's not afraid to come to net either and is 18/29 or 62%, including 4 serve-volleys

Just rallying to net, Fed's 23/31 or 74%, Stan 15/25 or 60%

That success level - both getting to net so often and being that successful when there - is superb from Federer, given he's outhit and thus doesn't have much scope to come in from strong positions. He's patient from the back, but any short ball is hit into side more open - with Stan keep central court position, that's usually dtl - and in he comes. Strong, but not decisively strong approach shots and sure volleying when there

Not too many difficult volleys faced. Its the finishing that's high quality rather than handling tough volleys

Good move from Stan to marry his hitting advantage to coming in to finish too. Unlike Fed, there's scope for him to come in much more. He prefers to power through from the back, but does manufacture approaches at important times, most notably the tiebreak

Stan's disproportionately FE heavy yield of errors - he's got 26 UEs and FEs apiece - is mostly passing shots. He's not particularly tough to get a UE out of, nor is Fed's baseline attacks great (closer to the opposite on both fronts)

Fed has a more normal for clay 34 UEs and 16 FEs. Largely beaten baseline-to-baseline

Final stats are deceptively impressive
- winners/UE differential - Stan -1, Fed -15
- winners + errors forced/UE differential - Stan +15, Fed +11

Good numbers. Its the sloppiness of the errors, the kind of routine balls that are missed regularly and the shortness of rallies that belie it considerably

Match Progression
Sloppy first set from both players. Both struggle some to return - more understandable for Fed against Stan's more powerful serve - but enough scope for improvement as to qualify as unsound

Stan is more powerful off the ground, but also prone to hitting routine shots into the net. Fed counter-punches. Stan rushes, if not overpowers Fed when rallies go beyond early errors. Fed's attack is based on net play. Serve out wide, hit into open court and come in works like a charm and he throws in some serve-volleying. A poor run from Stan sees him broken - 3 UEs, the last 2 routine shots - from game point up

Stan hits a drop BHOH winner. It doesn't look like unintentional. A rare sight. The 1 break is enough to give Fed the set

The 2 trade breaks early in second and play carries on in same vein. Stan eases back on the power and play is trading firm groudies, with Fed still coming to net regularly. Some sloppy returning from Fed, while Stan is steady in getting return in play

In tiebreak, 3 loose errors to routine balls by Fed. At least 2 are on return points, so not overly costly but the other - a regulation third ball BH miss on 2nd point - ends up being the only mini-break. Stan serve-volleys and is aggressive on his end to greater extent then he'd been in set too

Great last set by Stan, who opens up a 4-0 lead. He lets loose from the back and the large power advantage he has is finally on full show. He's consistent too

Summing up, a pretty sloppy match, with both players missing lots of routine shots in short rallies off both wings and neither defending particularly well. Wawrinka has bigger serve, surer return and big hitting advantage from the back and ends up being more consistent from there too. Federer counter-punches best he can and creates counter-play at net smartly and well

Even encounter for 2 sets, before Wawrinka turns up the power, plays his best and shoots ahead in the third

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