Match Stats/Report - Zverev vs Medvedev, Year End Championship final, 2021

[Waspsting]

Alexander Zverev beat Daniil Medvedev 6-4, 6-4 in the Year End Championship final, 2021 on indoor hard court in Turin, Italy

It was Zverev’s second title at the event. Medvedev had been the defending the champion. The two had met in the round robin stage earlier, with Medvedev winning in 3 sets.This was the first edition of the tournament at this venue. Medvedev had won the pair’s 5 previous meetings (including the round robin encounter) and Zverev beat world #1 Novak Djokovic in the semis, in addition to the #2 Medvedev

Zverev won 61 points, Medvedev 51

Serve Stats
Zverev...
- 1st serve percentage (40/54) 74%
- 1st serve points won (33/40) 83%
- 2nd serve points won (8/14) 57%
- Aces 8 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (20/54) 37%

Medvedev...
- 1st serve percentage (36/58) 62%
- 1st serve points won (25/36) 69%
- 2nd serve points won (13/22) 59%
- Aces 3, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (18/58) 31%

Serve Patterns
Zverev served...
- to FH 49%
- to BH 49%
- to Body 2%

Medvedev served...
- to FH 52%
- to BH 48%

Return Stats
Zverev made...
- 38 (19 FH, 19 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 14 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (3 FH, 4 BH)
- 7 Forced (4 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (38/56) 68%

Medvedev made...
- 33 (15 FH, 18 BH)
- 12 Errors, comprising...
- 2 Unforced (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 10 Forced (6 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (33/53) 62%

Break Points
Zverev 2/4 (3 games)
Medvedev 0

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Zverev 16 (8 FH, 5 BH, 2 FHV, 1 OH)
Medvedev 11 (8 FH, 2 BH, 1 FHV)

Zverev's FHs - 3 cc (1 return, 1 pass at net), 3 dtl (1 pass, 1 at net), 2 inside-out
- BHs - 2 cc (1 at net), 1 inside-out, 1 running-down-drop-shot cc pass (non-net), 1 net chord dribbler

- 1 FHV was as swinging shot

Medvedev's FHs - 3 cc (1 pass), 2 cc/longline (1 pass), 2 inside-out, 1 inside-in
- BHs - 1 cc, 1 lob

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Zverev 21
- 15 Unforced (10 FH, 4 BH, 1 FHV)... with 2 FH at net & 1 swinging FHV
- 6 Forced (4 FH, 2 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.3

Medvedev 23
- 14 Unforced (10 FH, 4 BH)
- 9 Forced (5 FH, 4 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Zverev was...
- 15/21 (71%) at net, including...
- 2/2 serve-volleying, comprising...
- 1/1 off 1st serve and...
- 1/1 off 2nd serve
---
- 1/1 forced back

Medvedev was...
- 4/7 (57%) at net, including...
- 0/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve
---
- 1/1 retreated

Match Report
Zverev serving and returning particularly well - and better than Medvedev - is key difference in a well paced and played match by both on a quick court. Medvedev is a little off on the return early on, but gets up to speed eventually but even then, he’s not as good as Zverev in that area

Action changes across match, but Zver having better of things doesn’t

First set is what a typical Zver-Med match probably looks like - big serves by both and follow up neutral rallies. Who serves, returns and is steadier from the back could go either way on any given day. Today, its Zver in all 3 areas

Zver breaks to start the second set, which frees him up. This set features far more aggressive play from both players - Zver for being freed up, Med out of necessity. By set -

Set 1 - Winners Zver 5, Med 1 & Approaches Zver 2, Med 3
Set 2 - Winners Zver 11, Med 10 & Approaches Zver 19, Med 4

Zverev not facing a break point is rare and particularly impressive. He’s got excellent final tally of 16 winners, 15 UEs (Med has 11 and 14 respectively)

Serve & Return
While Zver has better of court action too, his advantage on the first two shots is main factor in result

It’s a quick court and Zver serving would be perfect on it - but for the possible exception of against Med. High in count of 74% is product of not going for too much (that is, too wide), which on this quick court with the pace of his serves (I’d estimate 135+mph regularly), is more than good enough to draw a whole bunch of return errors from almost anybody. Relatively safe serving to be damaging with - a beautiful balance (and with a gimme second serve, doubly good to protect of having to play too many of those points)

In his winning run in 2018, he did something similar to Messrs Federer and Djokovic in the semis and finals, on a much slower surface. How much better can he do on a quick court?

Med though specializes in getting a lot of returns back, regardless of serve quality or court and conditions. Fast paced stuff that isn’t too wide isn’t exactly meat and drink to him, but he’s less likely to be put out by it than just about anybody

He’s a little put out by it. In first set in particular, struggles a bit against serves he can readily reach. By his own, uniquely high standard, a bit off. Just the 2 UEs on return, which but some lot of ‘makeably tough’ misses amidst his 10 FEs

Med’s a big server himself, but Zver returns exceptionally well. He’s not standing as far back as Med, but moves well to reach wide serves and strikes them firmly

For starters, he returns more than Med, leading return rates 68% to 62%
Higher proportion of his returns are neutralizingly strong. Generally, not too big a deal between these two as they’re liable to run on neutral regardless, but in this match, both eventually turn to collaring rallies from the third ball
And higher lot are damaging, right to the baseline to put Med on defensive at once

In all ways, Zver returning better. And getting more first serves in 74% to 62%, with serve quality about the same

Which leaves the matter of Zver’s often weak second serve on the table. How does he do there? He sends down a few amazingly weak ones, soft as can be. Serve-volleys behind a feather once, winning the point. Just the 1 double fault. Ends the match with an ace (he’s up 40-15 at the time, not much bother were he to double fault)

57% second serve points won - good enough. Very good when he’s only down to the second serve 26% of the time. Still trails Med, who wins 59% second serve points, despite having an extra double fault (and no ace). Punishing weak serves might not be Med’s forte on the return

Its Zver’s first serve that’s the most important of the 4 serves and returns on show - slightly bigger than Med’s and very regular. He serves an unreturnable 17.5% of the time with it, to Med’s 11%, with Med’s position making it harder to get an ace through

But Zver also returning better in all ways - consistency, coping with the tough stuff and doing damage

Big win for Zver on serve-return complex, which brings us to…

 

[Waspsting]

Play - Baseline (& Net)
First set is filled with neutral, if not passive rallies, with two player trading groundstrokes ‘til someone misses and little attempt by either to take charge

Things are equal on that front. In first set, when consistency is on frontlines of action, both players have 8 ground UEs. Match long, both end with 14 (3 of Zver’s being net shots - 2 of them groundies)

Ground UEs in first set
- both 8 - Zver (6 FH, 2 BH), Med (7 FH, 1 BH)

And match long
- Zver 12 (8 FH, 4 BH), Med 14 (10 FH, 4 BH)

Deceptive suggestion that rallies are predominantly FH in there. They’re in fact dual winged, with both players BHs holding very steady so errors end up coming from FH. FHs aren’t loose by any means either. Good, sound rallying from both players, with honours equal. Honours equal in rallying = Zver winning, given his serve-return advantage, and that’s how he takes the first set

Second set is a different story. Zver breaks to start the set, and thereafter, starts going for his shots more. Med more or less has to follow

Zver still riding a serve-return advantage, with both of those shots giving him advantageous starting position more often than Med. Both players strong and steady off the BH, not giving up ready chances to the other to attack. Med tries with drop shots. They are not good drop shots - Zver’s able to reach them early enough to play orthodox top spin shots at net (as opposed to guided up running-down-drop-shot shots), but still misses a pair at net

Strong BHs from Zver is no surprise. In this match up, it has benefit of curbing Med’s preferred wing to attack from. Med has little choice but to indulge with power and shot-making off the FH
Zver’s stronger off the FH too. In this match, he looks equally strong off either side

Zver's winners include a rare BH inside-out. Its not an aggressive shot. He fends a very powerful return right to his feet on the baseline and that shot happens to go inside-out of direction and dies before Med can reach the ball

With attacking ground play near even, its net play that puts Zver over. ‘Delayed’ serve-volleys (where server steps in and waits on return before deciding to come in or not) and hit hard + approach make up bulk of his approaches, with a couple of adventurously manufactured ones thrown in

Net points - Zver 15/21, Med 4/7… speaks for itself

Gist - both players soundly solid off the ground to equal degree. Both turning to power hitting and attacking play in due time, with FHs leading, with Zver having slightly hitting edge amidst essential equality. And Zver coming to net behind power hits giving him overall advantage, building on his one on serve-return

Match Progression
Exceptional serving and returning from Zver marks the first set. He lands 18/25 first serves, which are very powerful, but he doesn’t go too close to lines with them. Med’s not far behind with 16/26 in-count, but Zver returns particularly well to not just get returns back, but with decent authority

With Med struggling some to return, that gives Zver advantage. Baseline rallies that follow mostly stay in neutral, with both players solid

Just the one break and it comes in game 3 and is a good one from Zver. Wins a neutral rally, presures out another FH error (marked UE) and scores with a bashing BH cc to get to 0-40. Needs a bit of luck to finish the deal, a BH net chord dribbling winner

3/6 sets winners come in successive points in Med’s next service game (Zver with a FH inside-out from routine position, Med with FH inside-in and Zver with a very good FH dtl pass as he’s stretched out), and Zver has another break point. Med takes net behind a big FH inside-out to erase it and goes on to hold with a strong FH longline shot

No more competitive thrills (or any kind of thrills, for that matter) for rest of set, with both players cruising on strong serves to hold. Zver eventually serves out to 15, winning a serve-volley point behind a gentle second serve and also landing 2 aces

Zver breaks to start the second set. Big return against first set draws weak ball that he dispatches BH cc for winner to bring up break point, before Med’s FH coughs up error

Action picks up quickly from the somewhat bland stuff earlier. Med plays drop shots, Zver comes to net in next game. Game 3 starts with 5 winners in a row - just 1 less than all the winners in the first set. Zver smacks returns harder and wider, without losing consistency (in fact, gaining on it) or straining. Med takes to attacking third balls with his groundies, which Zver does too

Zver does one thing that Med doesn’t net; attack net. Either after a powerful groundie, or after seeing his serve has drawn a floating return

Zver’s taken to deuce for only time in match in game 6. Another intense game - 6/8 points end with winners, the other 2 are passing errors. Zver’s at net 7 times in the game (twice more than both players combined in first set)

Set continues along these new, aggressive lines. Med endures a 10 point hold to prolong the match for 4-5 (no break points). Lovely, touch BH lob winner from him is stand out of good game with just 2 UEs (1 a winner attempt by Zver)

That leaves Zver to serve things out. He’s again at net regularly, and the one time he isn’t, dismisses a FH dtl winner from even position before reaching match point. Which he delivers with a booming second serve ace

Summing up, high end measured and versatile showing from Zverev. Serves superbly (big, regularly and smartly in how much he goes for), returns well (regularly and hard-hitting whenever chance arises), sound and secure off the ground (few errors and they don’t come easily) and in due time, upping the ante to aggressive - power hits, shot-making and net play. He essentially shuts his opponent out

Good showing form Medvedev too. He struggles a little by his high standard to return a tough serve before getting a grip on making the shot at least and faces little other than strong serves. His own serve is powerful but returned exceptionally well. And in rallies, he trails Zverev a little in power off the FH, but remains equal from the back in most ways. Does not have anything to equalize his opponents net play though

Good match from both, Zverev better in all ways to come away with a fine win