Match Stats/Report - Zverev vs Rublev, Cincinnati final, 2021

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Alex Zverev beat Andrey Rublev 6-2, 6-3 in the Cincinnati final, 2021 on hard court

It was Zverev’s first title at the event and Rublev’s first hard court Masters final. Zverev had recently won the Olympics

Zverev won 58 points, Rublev 36

Serve Stats
Zverev...
- 1st serve percentage (28/39) 72%
- 1st serve points won (26/28) 93%
- 2nd serve points won (5/11) 45%
- Aces 6
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (20/39) 51%

Rublev...
- 1st serve percentage (39/55) 71%
- 1st serve points won (26/39) 67%
- 2nd serve points won (2/16) 13%
- Aces 11, Service Winners 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (20/55) 36%

Serve Patterns
Zverev served...
- to FH 43%
- to BH 57%

Rublev served...
- to FH 40%
- to BH 55%
- to Body 5%

Return Stats
Zverev made...
- 35 (13 FH, 22 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 8 Errors, comprising...
- 2 Unforced (2 FH)
- 6 Forced (5 FH, 1 BH)
- Return Rate (35/55) 64%

Rublev made...
- 15 (5 FH, 10 BH)
- 14 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (4 FH, 3 BH)
- 7 Forced (4 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (15/35) 43%

Break Points
Zverev 5/10 (5 games)
Rublev 1/1

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Zverev 10 (6 FH, 2 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
Rublev 7 (5 FH, 1 BH, 1 FHV)

Zverev's FHs - 2 cc, 1 dtl/inside-out, 1 inside-out, 2 inside-in (1 return)
- BHs - 1 dtl/inside-out, 1 inside-in/cc

Rublev's FHs - 2 cc (1 at net), 1 cc/inside-in, 1 inside-in at net, 1 inside-in/longline (probably not clean)
- BH - 1 net chord dribbler

- the FHV was a non-net, swinging inside-out

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Zverev 5
- 1 Unforced (1 FH)
- 4 Forced (1 FH, 3 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 50

Rublev 28
- 18 Unforced (12 FH, 6 BH)
- 10 Forced (6 FH, 4 BH)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.4

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Zverev was 4/4 (100%) at net

Rublev was 3/4 (75%) at net

Match Report
Baseline match, Zverev plays solidly strong, Rublev plays sloppily badly, Zverev’s serve is too much for Rublev to handle and Zverev wins easily, QED. Court is quickish

Key stats -
- Zver with 51% unreturend serves (Rublev has deceptively healthy 36%)
- Zver with 1 lousy UE (Rublev has 18)
- Rub winning 13% 2nd serve points

Solidly strong serving from Zver, and Rub not upto handling it
Not bad serving from Rub either (in context of his having an average serve), Zver not too bothered by it, particularly when he has reason not to be

In counts are similar (Zver 72%, Rub 71%). From there -
- 1st serve ace/service winner rate - Zver 21%, Rub 31%
- unreturned serves - Zver 51%, Rub 36%

The gap between ace rate and unreturneds is surprising. 31% from Rub is extremely high, up in Isner-Karlovic territory and in that light, 36% unreturneds is small

Practically, the high ace rate doesn’t matter. Rub’s down 4-0 in first set before he fires 5 aces in his next 2 holds. And he goes down a break to start the 2nd set (only point he wins is with sole service winner)

Zver breaks 5 times in 9 games, including break to start both sets (once going onto to add a second break right after), and returns comfily in those games. The 4 games Rub holds is filled with aces and are easy affairs - but he’s already down 1 or 2 breaks by then

Just 2 unretunables from Rube in the 5 games he’s broken to go with 10 in the 4 holds. No overt tanking of those games from Zver, but he’s probably not too keyed in; he’s up breaks and holding very easily

When he is keyed in, nice, comfy returning from Zver from well-back. Typically easy, sometimes sweeping return irksomely wide, occasionally very deep. Also, a spanked FH inside-in winner. Despite the high ace count, its an average serve, and Zver deals with it accordingly. Just 1 BH error (which faces 55% of the serves), but FH (which has 7 errors) are the more, damaging deep ones

On flip side, Rub not upto handling Zver’s contained, but strong serving

Zver not going all in on power. Its normal for him to not go too wide and here, he doesn’t need to. In swing zone 1st serves or coverabel by a step (and Rub’s in well-back position to return also) are enough to draw errors

Rub’s aced 6 times and has 14 reurn errors, split 7-7 across UE-FE lines
UEs are relatively not-easy. Routine returns against a hefty serve in reach. He’s a little slow to react and move for the return too
All that leads to 51% unreturneds. Rub’s return rate is even lower 43%, with Zver double faulting very high 36% of 2nd serves, but again, in context of 72% in count, not too important

If Zver’s returns are neutralizing, Rub’s tend to leave Zver with initiative. Not often a strong initiative where Zver might look to dispatch third ball winner, but enough to be building on. And does he build on it. Sans double faults, he wins 31/35 service points
 

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Winners - Zver 10, Rub 7
Errors Forced - Zver 10, Rub 4
UEs - Zver 1, Rub 18

Action is almost all baseline, with 2 players combining for 7 approaches (most of them putaway groundstrokes elicted by drawing weak return or otherwise easy approach) and FHs are center-piece of rallies

1 UE from Zver. It’s a third ball FH that he tries to finish first set with a bang with. Rub has 12 FHs, 6 BHs

When you have UE gap this large, its either because winning player is so rock solid that losing player has to end up missing (credit to the winning player) or because the losing player just gives up UEs very readily (discredit to the losing player). Its more the latter here

Zver not giving up weak balls, but he’s shy of pressuringly powerful. Black mark on Rub’s consistency. Just a lot of sloppy, routine errors, including good few third ball misses. 12/18 of his UEs are neutral shots

Still, you can’t do much better than have 1 UE amidst firm hitting baseline rallies, and credit to Zver also. Perfectly solid, hitting firmly, no weak balls coming out of him. And to be clear, it’s not just firmly keeping ball in play and waiting for errors stuff. He’s able to outmanuver Rub too as rallies go on. There’s nothing wrong with Rub’s force of shot, so when rallies have got going (that is, he hasn’t blinked it away with sloppy error), moving him wide and finishing off is not easy task. While Rub’s sloppiness takes the eye more, there’s plenty of well-built rallies from Zver, gaining ground in good hitting contests and gradually moving Rub wide to force errors or set up winners

Another area Zver excels is in counter-punching after making not-easy return to a wide serve. Rube hits firm shot to open court and Zver has to scamper to stay in the rallies, playing from well behind baseline. Rube not good at keeping Zver under pressure and Zver able to neutralize within 2-4 shots, but Rube also not messing up attacking. He has 4 attacking UEs and 2 winner attempts. Zver’s BH impressive in these types of pseudo-defensive situations. Handles small amount of powerful, wider FH inside-outs from Rube too

10 winners and forcing 10 errors is a good aggressive yield from Zver. Couple winners set up by serve, couple set up by very good returns to baseline (including a very rare BH inside-in cc). Only 2 errors he forces are net points, so 8 are in baseline rallies. That’s very good outmanvering play, with good, wide FH cc’s that both force errors or draws weak balls. Rube’s a little slow to react to the wider shots (more for starting off a fraction late than movement). FHs has 6/8 baseline winners and does most of the error forcing, but BH is probably even cleaner hit on average. He of course, has 0 BH UEs (Rube has 6)

10 winners, forcing 10 errors, just 1 UE is outstanding from Zver (theoritically, virtually perfect even)
18 UEs from Rub - which is 7 more than his combined winners and errors forced - is as much behind way action goes
Gist - Zver playing well, Rub not

Match Progression
Zver wins first 4 games. Rub’s FH giving up errors (6/7 UEs in the 2 8 point games he’s broken) is behind the breaks while Zver doesn’t lose a point on serve
3 easy holds from there filled with unreturned serves from both players. Rub has 5 aces in his 2 holds

Zver, who hadn’t lost a service point, is taken to deuce on the serve-out. Net chord dribbling winner and double faults help get him there, but Rub misses 2 routine returns to fall behind 40-30. Its then that Zver makes his only UE for the match, trying to swat a winning third ball FH, but wraps up soon after with an easy trip to net springing from a big serve and an easy FHV putaway

Zver breaks to open second set also - 3 ground UEs from Rub (2 BHs) and Zver throwing in a slapped FH inside-in return winner

He breaks again for 4-1 in a 10 point game, the best return game of the match. Rub makes 9 first serves, but Zver spanks some superb deep returns that draw weak, third ball 1/2volleys from baseline or forces errors. Spanks 1 such rejoiner away BH inside-in cc and another FH dtl/inside-out. To finish, wide FH cc forces error

Zver’s broken serving for the match. Makes 1/6 first serve and double faults twice in the game
But breaks next game to close out the match, with Rub giving up ground errors, while Zver scores with a just wide enough testing BH cc and a BH dtl return

Summing up, simply Zverev plays well, Rublev doesn't
Good serve from Zverev, that are beyond Rublev’s movements and shot tolerance to handle
When needed, comfy returning, with deep or wide damaging ones sprinkled in against average Rublev serve
And in baseline action, Zverev firm of shot, moving nicely and rock solid while Rublev is fairly sloppy with the errors
 
Top