Match Stats/Report - Zverev vs Thiem, Madrid final, 2018

[Waspsting]

Alexander Zverev beat Dominic Thiem 6-4, 6-4 in the Madrid final, 2018 on clay

It was Zverev’s first title at the event and he would win it again in in 2021. He did not lose serve in the tournament. Thiem had also been runner-up the previous year to Rafael Nadal, who he beat en route to this final. He would lose to Nadal in the French Open Final shortly afterwards

Zverev won 61 points, Thiem 49

Serve Stats
Zverev...
- 1st serve percentage (35/54) 65%
- 1st serve points won (29/35) 83%
- 2nd serve points won (13/19) 68%
- Aces 1, Service Winners 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (17/54) 31%

Thiem...
- 1st serve percentage (36/56) 64%
- 1st serve points won (26/36) 72%
- 2nd serve points won (11/20) 55%
- Aces 2
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (15/56) 27%

Serve Patterns
Zverev served...
- to FH 35%
- to BH 59%
- to Body 6%

Thiem served...
- to FH 44%
- to BH 54%
- to Body 2%

Return Stats
Zverev made...
- 39 (17 FH, 22 BH)
- 2 Winners (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 13 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (3 FH, 2 BH)
- 8 Forced (2 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (39/54) 72%

Thiem made...
- 37 (16 FH, 21 BH), including 3 runaround FHs
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 15 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (3 FH, 3 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 9 Forced (4 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (37/54) 69%

Break Points
Zverev 2/4 (3 games)
Thiem 0

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Zverev 14 (4 FH, 5 BH, 2 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 1 BHV)
Thiem 12 (7 FH, 4 BH, 1 OH)

Zverev's FHs - 1 cc, 1 cc/inside-in, 2 inside-in (1 return)
- BHs - 2 dtl (1 return), 1 inside-out, 2 drop shots (1 a net chord dribbler)

- 2 from serve-volley points, both first 'volleys' (1 FHV, 1 FH1/2V)

Thiem's FHs - 2 dtl (1 pass), 2 inside-out, 1 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc
- BHs - 3 dtl (1 return), 1 drop shot

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a first 'volley' FH at net

- 1 OH was on the bounce

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Zverev 22
- 13 Unforced (7 FH, 4 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 9 Forced (5 FH, 4 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.5

Thiem 28
- 19 Unforced (12 FH, 6 BH, 1 FHV)
- 9 Forced (7 FH, 2 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.8

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Zverev was...
- 12/14 (86%) at net, including...
- 3/3 (100%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 2/2 off 1st serve and...
- 1/1 off 2nd serve
---
- 1/1 forced back

Thiem was...
- 5/7 (71%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve

Match Report
Good match from both players, particularly Zverev whose a little better in just about all areas (serve, return, FH, BH). In particular the serve and he also plays smarter. A little off on the return from Thiem and some of his choices are foolish

Zverev not facing a break point. According to commentary, not only did he go through the whole tournament without being broken, but faced just 1 break point

14 winners, 13 UEs from Zverev, to go with 31% unreturned. Very nice

Zver a little better in all areas comes out beautifully in numbers

1st serve in - Zver 65%, Thiem 64%
1st serve won - Zver 83%, Thiem 72%
2nd serve won - Zver 68%, Thiem 55%

All good numbers from Thiem, with Zver just better. For all that, match isn’t close, per se. Zver breaks to start both sets and when you do that + face no break points, its quite a cozy ride

Closeness goes beyond basic numbers, and to all the areas that make up those basic numbers

Unreturneds - Zver 31%, Thiem 27%

Winners - Zver 14, Thiem 12
Errors Forced - both 9
UEs - Zver 13, Thiem 19

Net points - Zver winning 86%, Thiem 71% (Zver coming in 14 times, twice much as Thiem)

Winner/UE differentials -
FH - Zver -3, Thiem -5
BH - Zver +1, Thiem -2

Again, all fine numbers by Thiem, just not as good as Zver

Some pure dumb stuff from Thiem helps the result along. He gets himself broken to start the match by trying to runaround good, deep, firm returns to hit third ball FH winners. Shock of all shocks, misses them

This is the other side of the coin of his masterpieces, like ‘19 YEC round robin with Novak Djokovic and all his wins on clay over Rafael Nadal. In those matches, he’s just nailing winners right, left and center. Which you can’t do unless you go for winners right, left and center. Most players wouldn’t try

Masterpiece when it comes off, foolish when it doesn’t. Whether its worth it depends on how often it comes off and how often its likely too. There’s a reason Thiem’s trophy cabinet is underwhelming (assuming he had potential to have a much bigger one). Against a Nadal, its fair reasoning that nothing shy of zoning for winners will do to gain the win. Zverev plays a very good game here, but he’s no Nadal - and lunatic shot choices like the ones that lose Thiem first set are high among the reasons he underachieved. With a masterpiece or 2 thrown in

Match is baseline one. And Zver plays smartly. Likes to keep things BH-BH, where he has healthy hitting advantage. Once he has ball on BH, usually keeps up cc rallies to winning them. On the FH, regularly plays longline to Thiem’s BH, which is met by cc shot - and its back to BH-BH rally that Zver prefers

Thiem resists trying to runover and respond to neutral FH line with wild FH inside-out or inside-in winner. Not a given for him. Does knock the odd aggressive BH dtl in response, keeping the response to sane degree. He’s uncomfy in the BH cc exchanges, encouraged (if not forced) to slice when Zver’s hitting gets on top of his

Still, BH UEs of Zver 4, Thiem 6 is hardly disastrous for Thiem. He’s a little put out and Zver is cozy - but that doesn’t necessarily equate with winning and losing

Some rich BH play from Zver, on top of the strong staple stuff. Occasionally, he uses BH from up court around center the way many players use their FHs. Hitting in either direction and commanding action. There’s a BH inside-out winner, an BH inside-in/longline winning approach. Shots you don’t see every day. Capable and effective dtl too, but not even looking for it, much less overdoing it. 1 winner dtl + a return

Hitting on FH is more evenly matched. No hitting advantage for either player. Zver playing cc’s with line changes to get things back to BH, which works nicely. Thiem subtly controlled in this way. Odd mishit from Zver on the FH (unlike his very clean BH play), Thiem faltering some punishing it

 

[Waspsting]

On whole, Thiem doesn’t go bonkers, and foolishness is largely limited to that first game

Neutral UEs - Zver 6, Thiem 11
Attacking UEs - both 3
Winner Attempt UEs - Zver 4, Thiem 5

Zver more consistent on stock stuff is only real difference

Other thing Zver does well is use net. Usually flowing out of big serve drawing weak return, thumps the ball and comes in. He’s 12/14 at net, with the volleying required all but token (he does pull off a difficult FH1/2V winner serve-volleying). Smartly high percentage stuff from Zver - the exact opposite of things like trying to whisk balls into corners for winners. Against short, weak ball, he’ll slam it where its easiest to land - cc or inside-in - and come in to net. Hits hard enough that that’s more than enough to win point, and no risk of missing corner shot for winner

For all that, odd times he goes for winner, he usually makes it. BH dtl is to a regulation ball, also couple of the FH winners. There’s calculated risk taking that come off. Thiem usually returns from very far back. Very rarely does he step in to take return from the baseline. When he does and pops up a not strong return, Zver pointedly goes for (and makes) the FH winner. That’s his way of discouraging Thiem from changing up the backward return position, that’s making Zver’s life so comfy

Thiem comes to net to shake hands. He’s there just 7 times, about half of them drawn or forced in. 1’s a slightly delayed serve-volley and another is 1 that’s delayed enough to be not be marked a serve-volley (he waits on the return before coming in). He lets some wide open chances to come in - stuff like hitting short ball to open court and Zver scampering to reach ball - pass by, and Zver’s usually upto putting defensive ball back in play, without fear of it being smacked away. Part of the difference in smarts of 2 players. In small amount of times he’s called on to volley, Zver demo’s his not-great volleying, but uses net when any volley necessary would be easy. Thiem, generally a better volleyer, lets similar chances to come in go by. And his FH is no winner-hitting machine that he has good working alternative to finishing

Strong serving from Zver, with Thiem’s returning not up to handling it. Big fat serves, not too widely placed but they bounce up high. Thiem as far back as possible to return, but still left to block returns back

Just 1 ace and 1 service winner from Zver. Both for how far back Thiem is standing and for his style of not going too wide or trying to hit lines with serve. As with his attacking shots - why do so, when safer placement is drawing errors? And not just drawing errors, but hard forced ones. It’d be a challenging serve to handle regardless of position for anybody. Still, blocking returns from as far back as Thiem is… either he’s just not good enough to handle such serves, or he’s not done too well here. Only near the end does Zver send down a few toned down, regulation first serves (regulation relative to normal standard - his own his brutish and tough), by which time, Thiem seems to have been trained to not make them and he misses them anyway

68% second serve points won for Zver is one key to match. That’s not because of the serve, which is average. It is somewhat due to Thiem, who continues returning from quite far back (not as extreme as against first serves), and without being able to pressure Zver for upcoming rally. And Zver’s playing superiority - but the returning here is probably the biggest “could (and needs to) do better” mark against Thiem in the match

Zver returns from well back himself, but is able to thump returns with authority. Some very good ones deep but usually with good authority. His height helps. He’s on top of the ball when returning, Thiem’s often taking it around the shoulders. Good job by Thiem to still win 55% of his second serve points. As all stats indicate, he’s not far behind Zver - and if Zver’s played very well, Thiem must've played pretty well too

Match Progression
Second point of the match, Zverev bangs a normal return FH inside-in for a winner. Very odd from him. Less odd is Thiem, who decides the way to deal with a good, deep return is to runaround it and whack it for an FH inside-out winner, and shockingly he misses. If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again - and he does something similar next point. Same result. Double fault wraps up the game

No more breaks or break points for rest of set. One Thiem serve game goes to deuce and Zver’ eventual serve-out the same

Zver with powerful serve that has Thiem in all kinds of trouble. Thiem gets his share of freebies too, though Zver returns firmly amidst it. Zver’s BH is strong and pushes Thiem back into reactive in cc rallies, with a few slice errors following

Thiem seems to have solved what went wrong in opening game and in game 5, 40-30, backs away to try to hit a FH inside-in winner against a particularly good, deep return. Still misses, but draws couple return errors to hold. As Thiem steps up to baseline to return, having been bossed around from his well-back position, Zver responds by bopping a not strong return for a FH cc/inside-in winner next game

Thiem has 0-30 as Zver serves for the set. 5/6 remaining points go unreturned, including a service winner and some brutal serving from Zver

Zver breaks to open second set also, starting the game by knocking away a FH cc winner, ending it with a winning FH inside-in after a long, lively rally

Some beautiful BHs in the next game from both players. Thiem starts with a winning, wide cc. Zver responds with a perfectly disguised third ball drop shot winner that looks like a normal slice even as he plays the shot and follows it up with a third ball BH inside-out winner from up the court. Thiem nails a dtl winner to make it 30-30 - before a powerful serve and a FH blink sees Zver through to hold

He’s got 15-40 next game, with Thiem coming away to hold

No more break points and good tennis for rest of match. Thiem comes back from 40-0 to deuce in game 6, with some sparkling shots and amidst good rallies. Zver holds with some style - smartly bashing a mid-court ball right down the middle to force error, before commanding action with BHs in both directions from middle of court to win the last 2 points

Near end, Zver’s serve falls off a touch (from very strong, to just normal), but Thiem not only misses returns, but misses them more regularly than earlier. Meanwhile, Thiem knocks down matches only 2 aces in successive points to force Zver to serve it out

Which he does without trouble, and a spark. Penultimate point sees him softly drop a FH1/2V winner serve-volleying. Looks more a fluke than great skill, but he celebrates himself after it. One last unreturned serve later, he’s celebrating the result of the match

Summing up, good match from both players, with Zverev that much better at everything. In particular, his serve is very challenging and Thiem isn’t upto handling it, even from as far back as possible. Beyond that, Zverev’s BH is impressive in its continuous clean hitting and when he wants, has variety too. Plays FHs to maximize chances of having BH rallies and uses net safely and well

Thiem not too far behind the well-playing winner in any area, but he is behind in all of them. Odd daft shot choice doesn’t help close the gap, but not a bad showing from him either

 

[dapchai]

some of his choices are foolish

This can be said about any final match Thiem played at masters+ levels sans Indian Wells 19.

 

[Waspsting]

This can be said about any final match Thiem played at masters+ levels sans Indian Wells 19.

And Aus '20

I don't get this guy. Players who can't keep ball in court for 4 shots - Cilic for example - play like this because they have to. If they don't, they'll just bleed errors. Flip side of someone like Ferrer, who doens't have the power or shots, so has to be consistent

But Thiem was a great rallyer - hard hitting, controlled, consistent - and a good mover

I get playing this way against Nadal on clay. All his wins there have been zoning, going for everything type deals. Against Nadal, maybe that's necessary. Will lose more than he wins, but who doesn't against Nadal?

But Zverev? is this necessary?

He must've been a coach's worst nightmare. Or maybe dream cum true - "Hi Dom. Hair looks good, did you sleep well? ok, you go about doing what you do - I'll be over there. Last week of the month - don't forget the check next week"

Ok seriously, I've seen him play sensibly at other times - Aus '20 and better '19 Madrid vs Djokovic (though he lost both matches). He's not the brightest, but lets say this match, just a few bad decisions. And Zverev does play very well too

Few times Thiem steps up to baseline to return, Zver pointedly knocks away third ball for big FH winners, which isn't his thing. Nice touch. "Please stay where you are. Thank you"

I'm really, really stretching... but maybe Thiem was trying to do something similar to set tone for match?
But I would go beyond calling it 'risky' to and into 'dumb' territory, even if he had pulled it off. Back-away third ball FH winner attempts against deep returns in first game

Haven't seen you in awhile. How've you been?

 

[dapchai]

And Aus '20

I'm still perplexed by how he desperately went dtl just after a few bhcc exchanges vs Djoko in the 5th set. I mean he was running out of gas for sure but he could've been more patient or trying other stuff when the dtl approach didn't work out. For me that does count as 'foolish'.

I don't get this guy. Players who can't keep ball in court for 4 shots - Cilic for example - play like this because they have to. If they don't, they'll just bleed errors. Flip side of someone like Ferrer, who doens't have the power or shots, so has to be consistent

But Thiem was a great rallyer - hard hitting, controlled, consistent - and a good mover

What I also don't get from his playing style is he always seemed to be going for superb winners from every single corner of the court. Hitting the ball super hard even from defensive or awkward positions, a couple of slices here and there and that's about it, consistently bashing the ball like there's no tomorrow. He didn't seem to have plan B, and that perhaps contributed a nontrivial part to his career-ending wrist injury.

I get playing this way against Nadal on clay. All his wins there have been zoning, going for everything type deals. Against Nadal, maybe that's necessary. Will lose more than he wins, but who doesn't against Nadal?

Agree completely. You can't beat Nadal on clay if you don't hit the ball as hard as you can and try to get 50 winners. I think his ball bashing style of play built a lot on his aspiration to dethrone Nadal on the surface, then he brought this to the other surfaces.

But Zverev? is this necessary?

Of course not haha. And I think he did this virtually against everyone.

He must've been a coach's worst nightmare. Or maybe dream cum true - "Hi Dom. Hair looks good, did you sleep well? ok, you go about doing what you do - I'll be over there. Last week of the month - don't forget the check next week"

LOL

Few times Thiem steps up to baseline to return, Zver pointedly knocks away third ball for big FH winners, which isn't his thing. Nice touch. "Please stay where you are. Thank you"

One such point was also shown in the highlights from the ATP (6th game of set 1). I think only Federer would consistently step up to baseline to return given his superior forecourt abilities. Thiem... yeah he better stay behind the baseline almost every time.

Haven't seen you in awhile. How've you been?

Busy but have tried to tune in here given Nadal's possible farewell tour. I still from time to time check this GPPD board but don't post very often. Great that you're still working on analyzing old classic matches. Thanks a lot for your contribution!