Matchup analysis of Fed vs Nadal

[objectivity]

One point I have been wanting to address is the match up between Federer and Nadal, and why it favors Nadal. Many analysts have pointed out that Nadal's high spinning lefty forehand jumps high into Federer's backhand, and that eventually breaks it down given the sheer difficulty of hitting the 1HBH above the shoulder.

I don't disagree with that. But I also think another big problem for Federer in this particular matchup, is that Federer's greatest strength -- to me its his extraordinary inside-out forehand -- is negated because it plays into Nadal's forehand. The inside-out forehand is Federer's most important shot in my opinion, the shot that he uses to dictate the match most. (note: Make no mistake, Federer's inside-in forehand is also brilliant, but that shot inherently is riskier because it goes over the highest part of the net.) Federer's diminished ability to find the inside-out forehand winner in a Nadal match, to me, seems to be a big issue.

Of course this is all theory-crafting, but I have always wondered why Federer doesn't hit his shots more towards the middle of the court and keep them deep. Wouldn't that take away Nadal's angles and put less pressure on Federer's backhand?

 

[FlyingAce]

the problem is Fed's backhand and Nadal forehand.
When your greatest strength amplified by your op's greatest weakness (forehand - backhand, and endurance advantage of Nadal) it is no surprise that Fed has so much trouble with Nadal.
Look at Nadal Djokovic matchup. Djokovic now only player who is obviously better than Nadal (average on all surfaces). Same story, Nadal's forehand nullified ( to some degree) by Novak's great backhand.

 

[objectivity]

the problem is Fed's backhand and Nadal forehand.
When your greatest strength amplified by your op's greatest weakness (forehand - backhand, and endurance advantage of Nadal) it is no surprise that Fed has so much trouble with Nadal.
Look at Nadal Djokovic matchup. Djokovic now only player who is obviously better than Nadal (average on all surfaces). Same story, Nadal's forehand nullified ( to some degree) by Novak's great backhand.

don't disagree. although I think in the Nadal-Djokovic matchup, another reason why Djokovic matches up well to Nadal is because he is such an excellent lateral mover. So Nadal's most important strength -- his ability to move the opponent from side to side -- is negated.

 

[tipsa...don'tlikehim!]

I don't know why Federer doesn't it more shots like this one http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r35uZpr80mM

I remember well, Nadal was playing Paul Henri Mathieu in Montreal in 2007 and even the frenchman was causing problems to Nadal with this shot!

Murray too in Australian open 2007 the first time he played Nadal, he was hitting his forehand very short and cross court and coming to the net to finish the point with an easy volley.

So why did Federer not do that more often ?

Pride ?

 

[FlyingAce]

true. you are looking a bit deeper into things. I think his ability to move is a part of his great backhand.
Other interesting matchup problems:
1) Fed vs Nadal, if Nadal is a righty
2) Fed vs Novak, if Novak is lefty
3)Nadal vs Novak, if Novak uses 1hbh

 

[objectivity]

I don't know why Federer doesn't it more shots like this one http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r35uZpr80mM

I remember well, Nadal was playing Paul Henri Mathieu in Montreal in 2007 and even the frenchman was causing problems to Nadal with this shot!

Murray too in Australian open 2007 the first time he played Nadal, he was hitting his forehand very short and cross court and coming to the net to finish the point with an easy volley.

So why did Federer not do that more often ?

Pride ?

that's an interesting point. One reason could be the inherent risk of the shot. Not sure.

But I think you are in general alluding to general ways to defeat Nadal. I think Djokovic in 2011 especially, feasted on one of Nadal's biggest weakness -- his inherent risk aversion. Nadal does not like to strike his backhand down the line. In general, he will hit it cross-court because it is less risky. Of course, this could be also because he does not have a good BH DTL. But nonetheless, Djokovic has exploited this endlessly, because he knows every BH is coming back to center of court. Coupled with his improved FH, he now has an extra split second to set himself up for a forehand into either corner.

This aspect to me is the key issue coming into the US Open. Will Nadal finally start to open up the court more and most importantly, become less predictable by hitting his backhand DTL?

 

[Roger2003Wimbledon]

There is no such thing as a match up. H2H proves a player is better.

Hrbaty is the GOAT.

 

[fastgrass]

One point I have been wanting to address is the match up between Federer and Nadal, and why it favors Nadal. Many analysts have pointed out that Nadal's high spinning lefty forehand jumps high into Federer's backhand, and that eventually breaks it down given the sheer difficulty of hitting the 1HBH above the shoulder.

I don't disagree with that. But I also think another big problem for Federer in this particular matchup, is that Federer's greatest strength -- to me its his extraordinary inside-out forehand -- is negated because it plays into Nadal's forehand. The inside-out forehand is Federer's most important shot in my opinion, the shot that he uses to dictate the match most. (note: Make no mistake, Federer's inside-in forehand is also brilliant, but that shot inherently is riskier because it goes over the highest part of the net.) Federer's diminished ability to find the inside-out forehand winner in a Nadal match, to me, seems to be a big issue.

Of course this is all theory-crafting, but I have always wondered why Federer doesn't hit his shots more towards the middle of the court and keep them deep. Wouldn't that take away Nadal's angles and put less pressure on Federer's backhand?

I think as along with inside out fh cross court fh is his biggest weapon against right handers but against nadal
he couldn't hit with supreme accuracy and pace due to his
topspin BH this is another deciding factor along with
fh BH and inside out fh argument

 

[RoddickAce]

What I find is that its really hard for Federer to end points against Nadal, while Nadal can easily finish a point with his forehand to backhand strategy because he pushes federer deeper and deeper into his backhand corner, thereby opening up the other side of the court. Nadal then has the option of hitting behind Fed or into the open court.

Also, in the earlier days of the rivalry, up until 2007/2008, Nadal had amazing flat backhand passing shots from anywhere in the court, even 15 feet behind the baseline, so Fed couldn't approach the net with consistent success. Fed could approach to the forehand but then Nadal would pull out the banana passing shot.

 

[objectivity]

What I find is that its really hard for Federer to end points against Nadal, while Nadal can easily finish a point with his forehand to backhand strategy because he pushes federer deeper and deeper into his backhand corner, thereby opening up the other side of the court. Nadal then has the option of hitting behind Fed or into the open court.

Also, in the earlier days of the rivalry, up until 2007/2008, Nadal had amazing flat backhand passing shots from anywhere in the court, even 15 feet behind the baseline, so Fed couldn't approach the net with consistent success. Fed could approach to the forehand but then Nadal would pull out the banana passing shot.

That's a good point that Federer is unable to end the point as easily against Nadal. And Federer is the type of offensive minded player who is seeking constantly to end the point. The mental frustration might be just as problematic as the physical exhaustion.

I also agree that Nadal used to hit his backhand DTL more early on in his career. But he basically stopped doing that from 08-11. But I think he is getting the message. I think he has started hitting his backhand DTL more this year. This NYT article seems to concur with me.

http://straightsets.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/07/the-secrets-of-nadals-success/

 

[moonballs]

One point I have been wanting to address is the match up between Federer and Nadal, and why it favors Nadal. Many analysts have pointed out that Nadal's high spinning lefty forehand jumps high into Federer's backhand, and that eventually breaks it down given the sheer difficulty of hitting the 1HBH above the shoulder.

I don't disagree with that. But I also think another big problem for Federer in this particular matchup, is that Federer's greatest strength -- to me its his extraordinary inside-out forehand -- is negated because it plays into Nadal's forehand. The inside-out forehand is Federer's most important shot in my opinion, the shot that he uses to dictate the match most. (note: Make no mistake, Federer's inside-in forehand is also brilliant, but that shot inherently is riskier because it goes over the highest part of the net.) Federer's diminished ability to find the inside-out forehand winner in a Nadal match, to me, seems to be a big issue.

Of course this is all theory-crafting, but I have always wondered why Federer doesn't hit his shots more towards the middle of the court and keep them deep. Wouldn't that take away Nadal's angles and put less pressure on Federer's backhand?

Agree with your analysis. To answer your question, IMO the purpose of running around the backhand to hit a inside out or inside in forehand is to sacrifice space first in order to take more space or time away from the opponent. Hitting the FH back down the middle doesn't do the same damage.

Note the FH vs BH match up "issue" is only on clay. It just happened Fed and Nadal met on clay many times in their prime. On hard court, Fed routinely dismantled players (including Nadal and those who had already dismantled Nadal in earlier rounds). This obviously goes without saying but for the h2h zealots nothing is out of question.

 

[objectivity]

Agree with your analysis. To answer your question, IMO the purpose of running around the backhand to hit a inside out or inside in forehand is to sacrifice space first in order to take more space or time away from the opponent. Hitting the FH back down the middle doesn't do the same damage.

Note the FH vs BH match up "issue" is only on clay. It just happened Fed and Nadal met on clay many times in their prime. On hard court, Fed routinely dismantled players (including Nadal and those who had already dismantled Nadal in earlier rounds). This obviously goes without saying but for the h2h zealots nothing is out of question.

i think this issue extends beyond the clay match-up. clay exacerbates the issue because 1) nadal's shots kick higher and 2) federer's pace is moderated. but the same problem of nadal's forehand negating federer's inside-out forehand persists.

note: i am really not picking a fight, nor dissing federer in any way. he is in my opinion, truly the greatest player in history.

 

[Anti-Fedal]

I disagree.

It seems to be more of a mental issue for Federer whenever he plays Nadal rather than a generic match-up issue. There has been a countless number of times that Fed was in a genuine winning position against Nadal (on all surfaces) and ended up blowing substantial leads. If anything, Nadal exposed how mentally fragile Federer is and how easily he can lose the plot in big match situations when a couple of points don't go his way.

 

[Russeljones]

Another interesting and original take on this brand new rivalry.

 

[torpantennis]

Nice analysis. I agree with the OP, that the biggest problem for Fed in the matchup is the Nadal FH nullifying Fed's I/O FH. This is also why the matches between the two were huge in 2006-2008, strength against strength!

I disagree with OP that deep shots in center would work. Nadal would then have enough time to run around and start hitting CC FHs. Depth is no problem for Nadal.

The matchup has turned out to be mental recently, due to Nadal nullifying all the Fed's typical weapons. Fed should IMO stop hitting any deep balls at all to Nadal. Rather, he should aim into the smart targets, i.e. into the side corners of the service boxes. This way Nadal is forced outside of his comfort zone. Nadal cannot hit a BH DTL from there. This is what Nole has done successfully for 2 years. Deep balls don't hurt Nadal since he's so used to being well back behind the baseline.

For smart targets, see:

http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=413112

 

[objectivity]

Nice analysis. I agree with the OP, that the biggest problem for Fed in the matchup is the Nadal FH nullifying Fed's I/O FH. This is also why the matches between the two were huge in 2006-2008, strength against strength!

I disagree with OP that deep shots in center would work. Nadal would then have enough time to run around and start hitting CC FHs. Depth is no problem for Nadal.

The matchup has turned out to be mental recently, due to Nadal nullifying all the Fed's typical weapons. Fed should IMO stop hitting any deep balls at all to Nadal. Rather, he should aim into the smart targets, i.e. into the side corners of the service boxes. This way Nadal is forced outside of his comfort zone. Nadal cannot hit a BH DTL from there. This is what Nole has done successfully for 2 years. Deep balls don't hurt Nadal since he's so used to being well back behind the baseline.

For smart targets, see:

http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=413112

thanks! i agree with you. i think this "short ball" strategy is very good idea.

 

[moonballs]

i think this issue extends beyond the clay match-up. clay exacerbates the issue because 1) nadal's shots kick higher and 2) federer's pace is moderated. but the same problem of nadal's forehand negating federer's inside-out forehand persists.

note: i am really not picking a fight, nor dissing federer in any way. he is in my opinion, truly the greatest player in history.

In a sense you are right: one's strong wing against the others weak wing match up does exist all the time. I guess my point is on faster surfaces this particular match up is not quite enough of a factor to sway the match results. In 2010 WTF, Fed beat Nadal handily on a fast court. This was the year Nadal won three slams. In 2011 WTF, the way-past-prime Fed (people can vary their view on prime but 30 year old is an old age for tennis by most reasonable observers) beat Nadal in two sets including a bagel set. This was first year in a long time Fed didn't win a slam and only reached one slam final.

 

[tennis_hack]

Doesn't Federer's greatest strength (forehand) also go into Nadal's weakness (backhand)?

 

[objectivity]

Doesn't Federer's greatest strength (forehand) also go into Nadal's weakness (backhand)?

But that's my point -- I am arguing that Fed's greatest strength is specifically his inside-out forehand. And that's how he develops most of his winning positions.

 

[Netspirit]

Of course this is all theory-crafting, but I have always wondered why Federer doesn't hit his shots more towards the middle of the court and keep them deep. Wouldn't that take away Nadal's angles and put less pressure on Federer's backhand?

Nope. Federer was asked this very question.

His answer was (quoting from memory): "Nadal uses every opportunity to take control of the point and feasts on any ball hit without purpose - for example, to the middle of the court".

The only situation when a deep ball down the middle causes Nadal some trouble is on serve returns. Nadal, in an interview years after winning the USO 2010, when he was asked why he stopped hitting the serve flat and hard, said that that game pushed him out of his comfort zone - he likes to get an easier return and control the point with his forehand. When a hard & flat serve gets back equally fast so that Nadal has to pick it up from his shoelaces, it causes him major problems. This is what Djokovic does on most returns, essentially, and what Federer cannot do (because no 1HBH player can hit aggressive returns reliably and consistently).

 

[dominikk1985]

BTW why couldn't fed turn it around and try to pin nadals BH with his own FH?

Fed has a very spinny and big FH too and nadal has not a great BH either. so why isn't fed turning nadals tactics around and pin his BH?

 

[objectivity]

BTW why couldn't fed turn it around and try to pin nadals BH with his own FH?

Fed has a very spinny and big FH too and nadal has not a great BH either. so why isn't fed turning nadals tactics around and pin his BH?

That isn't the thesis of my original post. I wasn't talking about this FH to BH issue. I was talking about how nadal's FH negates Federer's inside out forehand.

But more precisely with regards to your question, I think it doesn't quite work as well for Federer to attack Nadal's backhand, because Nadal has a two hander. It just allows him to take high balls that much easier because he can use his right arm to "push back" the high ball, a luxury that Federer does not have.

Actually for the most part of say 1-1.5 sets against Nadal on clay, Federer is usually able to handle the shots to his backhand pretty well. But fatigue naturally sets in because the shot takes so much out of the right shoulder. And that's when Nadal really starts to punish him.

 

[sarmpas]

Nope. Federer was asked this very question.

His answer was (quoting from memory): "Nadal uses every opportunity to take control of the point and feasts on any ball hit without purpose - for example, to the middle of the court".

Which explains why Nadal relentlessly picks on the backhand knowing full well an almost always relatively shot will follow.

 

[torpantennis]

That isn't the thesis of my original post. I wasn't talking about this FH to BH issue. I was talking about how nadal's FH negates Federer's inside out forehand.

Yes, this is exactly the issue. Fed is an attacking player, that wants to dominate. And his whole domination from 2004 onwards is based on a single stroke, the best stroke of the history of the sport, his I/O FH. And there's only one person, and one stroke, that could ever nullify this, Nadal and his FH! Yet again, it's not that Nadal dominates Fed with his CC FH, rather, Nadal nullifies Fed's weapon with his CC FH.

Fed has just been too stubborn against Nadal, trying to dominate with the same I/O FH. This ain't ever happening. That's why he should change strategy, to develop another dominating weapon against Nadal. This could be the short angles, aiming to the smart targets, as I explained earlier. This is the strategy Nole uses to dominate Nadal. Why doesn't the guy try this, if he's so talented??