Being the current #1 as your main argument is such a flawed argument I don't even know where to begin.
The fact is that Alcaraz has 3 more masters wins, 2 more slams wins and literally beat the #1 player twice on 2 different surfaces in the last few months in big tournaments. The only argument in Sinner's favor is that he's the #1 player by a computer ranking so he must be the better year round player as a result.
The reality, if we're talking the here and now, is that Alcaraz beat Sinner the last 2 times he played him. This isn't even taking career accomplishments into account which is heavily in Alcaraz's favor, a shorter career btw.
Here I’m going to clear up my take because I don’t think you really understand it.
Hm, I actually disagree; right now, Sinner is the bigger threat year round, while Alcaraz has a higher level in the Bo5 format due to his sheer relentless attacking force and physicality.
Sinner holding the #1 ranking while Alcaraz winning more Slams makes perfect sense within the framework through which I view their games.
Year round as in from the beginning of the year to the end of it, Sinner has a better chance of capturing more points every week. Which bears out in the fact that over the past 52 weeks, he has won the most points.
you’re also discounting the second part of what I wrote, which is actually a compliment to Carlitos: I would expect Carlos to win more Slams as he is a more impressive Bo5 player.
Well, let’s look at the facts supporting my take and the facts supporting your dismissal of my take: over the last 52 weeks, Sinner has 9525 points and Alcaraz 8580.
In
Grand Slams over the last 52 weeks, though, Sinner has 3700 points, and 2 top 5 wins. Alcaraz meanwhile has won 5120 points and Alcaraz amassed 4 top 5 wins.
So what statement do the facts support?
The year round piece of this is that from September to December, Sinner was absolutely hell on wheels great last year, winning Vienna and Beijing and breaking out, beating Medvedev twice and Carlos. He also went 3-0 in group stages and made the Final of the ATP Finals. That’s a total of 2000 points combined. He then won Rotterdam as well to begin 2024 and as a result is way ahead of Carlos outside of their Slam results.
Carlos by comparison struggled both indoors (losing to Safiullin and early in Shanghai) and in the Golden Swing in Rio this year with injury and poor form. And this seems to happen a lot - he has questionable early losses in Canada every year, and is never seemingly fully healthy for long.
I think Carlos is still a better bet for Slams than Sinner is but all evidence I have points to the idea that Sinner is going to win more points year round due to the HC bias of the tour and his general serve/return advantages giving him a high floor.