Measuring Consistency of modern GOAT women

[BTURNER]

I include Court, Evert, Navratilova, Graf and Serena. There are several standards we often use to measure consistency. I take this in parts so no single post gets too long.

Career w/loss percentage is tricky because prior to the WTA, knowing what to include or exclude as an 'event' was dodgy. This impacts the results of Court for which there are two stats. The stats in the charts below come from Wiki and indirectly the WTA and Its the only time the WTA provides a Court stat on this page. . Beyond which I cannot find a surface breakdown for Court's career, very frustrating. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WTA_Tour_records#Matches_won_and_winning_percentages

1. Australia Margaret Court 593–56 91.17 (inclusive of amateur = 1,177-106, for a winning percentage of 91.74, Court's page)
2. United States Chris Evert 1,304–144 90.05
3. Germany Steffi Graf 900-115 88.67
4. United States Martina Navratilova 1,442–219 86.82
5. United States Serena Williams 627–112 84.84

Broken down by surface , I deleted entries of NON GOATS but left the numbering. For example Henin represents the missing #3 in clay.
Clay % * W–L
1. United States Chris Evert 94.28 312–20
2. West Germany Steffi Graf 90.10 273–30
6. United States Serena Williams 81.48 132–30
7. U.S Martina Navratilova 81.38 201–46

Hard % * W–L
1. West Germany Steffi Graf 90.30 335–36
2. United States Chris Evert 89.28 308–37
3. U.S. Martina Navratilova 87.69 342–48
4. United States Serena Williams 85.11 360–63

Grass % * W–L
1. United States Martina Navratilova 88.66 305–39
2. United States Serena Williams 88.37 76–10
3. United States Chris Evert 88.04 184–25
4. West Germany Steffi Graf 85.00 85–15

Carpet % * W–L
1. U.S. Martina Navratilova 89.82 512–58
2. West Germany Steffi Graf 89.15 189–23
3. United States Chris Evert 84.15 207–39

There is no reference to Serena at all in the top 10 on carpet, probably because she hasn't achieved the 40 match threshhold.

 

[BTURNER]

Career w/l percentage at majors, here at least we have some consistent data. Its a matter of how we interpret it.

1. Graf
entries:54, Ch,RU,1/2,1/4 = 22, 9, 8, 5 W/L 278 - 32 or 89.67%
Aussie=88%, RG=89%, W=91%, US=89.02%

2. Evert
entries:56, Ch,RU,1/2,1/4 = 18,16,18,2 W/L 298 - 38 or 88.69%
Aussie=85%, RG=92%, W=86%, US=89.38%

3. Court
entries:45, Ch,RU,1/2,1/4 = 24, 5, 7, 7 W/L 159 - 22 or 87.85%
Aussie=95%, RG=85%, W=85%, US=85%

4. Serena
entries:53, Ch,RU,1/2,1/4 = 17, 4, 3,13 W/L 246 - 36 or 87.23%
Aussie=87%, RG=82%, W=88%, US=88%

5. Navratilova
entries:67, Ch,RU,1/2,1/4 = 18,14,12, 9 W/L 304 - 52 or 85.39%
Aussie=83%, RG=82%, W=89%, US=83%

The highest % in a major is in bold

it is interesting to note that while graf has the highest w/l percentage at Wimbledon, she has the lowest of any of them on career grass events.

 

[Vanhool]

I think winning percentqge is a huge stat, so thank you. I'd be curious about winning percentages that only include premiers (or era equivalents) and slams. I think in her whole career, Serena has only played a handful of non premier events, so all her wins come from fields where most if the top 10 were there. I don't know if that's true of the others (or if all the top players attended lower tiered events anyway so it's a wash). I was a kid back in those days and watching, but not paying attention to that sort of thing, so I'm genuinely curious, not trolling.

 

[illusions30]

Interesting info. The very low win % of Steffi (relatively speaking) and the very high win % of Chris on grass are the biggest surprises for me. Nobody thinks of Chris as in the league of Steffi or Martina or several others on grass, yet her win % if a full 5% above Steffi's which is significant and surprising. I would probably demote Steffi to only #3 best grass courter ever behind Wills Moody (my #1) and Navratilova (#2) now seeing her low win % on grass. I wouldnt have originally had Chris even in my top 10 all time on grass, but now would probably find a spot for her at the bottom of the top 10 above someone like Goolagong who I originally probably would have had higher.

The other slight surprise to me is Serena above Martina in clay win %. I always thought Serena was very inconsistent on clay, but Martina for many years was too. Which leads an interesting topic perhaps. Now that both have 2 RG titles who is the better clay courter- Martina or Serena? Given that Serena was probably cheated out of a French Open title by a cheating Justine Henin in 2003 I am included to perhaps go with Serena now that to my surprise I see her win % on clay is slightly above. Doesnt Serena also have more tier 1 and tier 2 equivalent titles on clay now?

 

[BTURNER]

Last I will list the 'upsets'( very loosely and probably incorrectly defined) at majors Its a simple list of occasions in which these women lost before the QF and a restatement of QF losses in majors. I'll put the seeding of the opponent when available. AT the Aussie and RG they did not seed as early or as often.

Court entries:45 7 QF Losses, 1 RD16, 1 Rd64
13 Aussies - 1 QF loss: '75 Navratilova (8th)
0 losses earlier
10 RG - 2 QF losses:'61 Haydon-Jones,63 V. Sukova
1 earlier loss: RD16 71 chanfreau
12 Wimb - 2 QF loss : '68 Tegart Dalton (7th), '61 Truman (6th)
1 earlier loss: RD64 '62 BJK (unseed)
10 US - 2 QF losses : '68 Bueno (5th), '75 Navratilova (3rd)
0 earlier losses
............................................................................................
Evert entries:56 2 QF losses, 2 RD 32 losses
6 Aussies - 0 QF losses
0 losses earlier
13 RG - 0 QF losses
1 earlier loss: RD32 '88 Sanchez Vicario (unseeded)
18 Wimb - 0 QF losses
1 earlier loss RD 32 ' 83 Jordan (unseeded)
19 US - 2 QF losses: 87 McNeil (11th), '89 Garrison (5th)
0 earlier losses
............................................................................................
Navratilova entries:67 9 QF losses, 5 RD16, 1 RD32, 2 RD64, 4 RD128 losses
10 Aussies - 1 QF loss: 89 Sukova (5th)
0 losses earlier
13 RG-3 QF loss: '73 Goolagong(4th),74 Mastoff (3rd)81 Hanika(6th)
3 earlier losses Rd 16 '88 Zvereva (13th),2 RD 128 losses:
'94 Oremans(unseeded) & 04 Dulko(unseeded)
23 Wimb - 3 QF loss:75 Court (5th),77 Stove (7th),91 Capriati (9th)
2 earlier loss: 73 RD 32 Hogan (unseed), 74 RD 128 Jauseovic (unseed)
21 US - 2 QF losses: '82 Shriver (7th),88 Garrison (11th),
4 RD16 loss: 74 Heldman(unseeded) 80 Mandlikova(9th) 90 MMaleeva(9th) 93 Sukova(12th)
2 RD 64 loss:'73 Burton(unseeded),92 Mag maleeva(10th)
1 RD 128 loss: 76 Newberry (unseeded)
...................................................................................................................................................................................................
Graf 54 entries 5 QF losses, 6 RD16, 3 RD32, 1 RD64, 2 RD128 losses
10 Aussies - 2 QF losses: 91 Novatna (10th), 99 Seles (10th)
3 earlier losses: 2 RD16 84 Turnbull (4th), 97 Coetzer (12TH), 83 RD64 Sayers-Smylie (unseed)
16 RG - 2 QF losses: 86 Mandlikova (5th),97 Coetzer (11th)
3 earlier losses: RD 16 Evert (2nd), RD32 Kodhe-Kilch (14th), 83 Mould(unseed)
14 Wimb 0 QF losses
4 earlier losses: 2 RD16 84 Durie (10th), 85 Shriver (5th), RD32 98 Zvereva (unseed), RD128 McNeil (unseed)
14 US 1 QF loss:92 Sanchez-Vicario (5th)
2 earlier losses: RD16 Schnyder (11th), RD128 Hanika (unseed)
....................................................................................................................................................................................................
Serena 53 entries 13 QF losses, 7 RD16, 6 RD32, 1 RD64, 1 RD128
13 Aussies - 3 QF losses:01 Hingis (top seed), 08 Jankovic (3rd seed), 13 Stevens (29),
5 earlier losses: 2 RD16 2000 Likhovtseva (16), 12 Makarova (unseed), 2 RD32 99 Testud (14th), 06 Hantuchova (17th),RD64 Venus (unseed)
12 RG - 5 QF loss:01 Capriati (4th),04 Capriati (7th),07 Henin (top),09 Kutnesova (7th), 10 Stosur (7th)
4 earlier loss: RD16 98 Sanchez-Vicario (4th), 2 RD32 99 Fernandez (unseed),08 Srebotnik (27th),RD128 Razzano (unseed)
14 Wimb - 2 QF losses:01 Capriati (4th),07 Henin (top),
4 earlier losses: 2 RD16 11 Bartoli (9th),13 Lisicki (23rd),2 RD32 98 Pascual (unseed), 05 Craybas (unseed)
14 US - 3 QF losses: 2000 Davenport (2nd),04 Capriati (8th), 07 Henin (top),
3 earlier losses: 2 RD16 05 Venus (10th), 06 Mauresmo (top), RD32 98 Spirlea (9th)

 

[kiki]

I always find exciting to rank those supertalented players whose record falls compared to their talent.people such as Hoad,Nastase and Mandlikova, while having their fair share of major titles, clearly should have done much better.Hoad was a serious case of injuries but that was not the case of the other two, and there maybe some others like Mecir or Jaeger whose problems with GS titles was just menthally, nothing else.

How can we separate greatness to greatness talent?

 

[BTURNER]

Interesting info. The very low win % of Steffi (relatively speaking) and the very high win % of Chris on grass are the biggest surprises for me. Nobody thinks of Chris as in the league of Steffi or Martina or several others on grass, yet her win % if a full 5% above Steffi's which is significant and surprising. I would probably demote Steffi to only #3 best grass courter ever behind Wills Moody (my #1) and Navratilova (#2) now seeing her low win % on grass. I wouldnt have originally had Chris even in my top 10 all time on grass, but now would probably find a spot for her at the bottom of the top 10 above someone like Goolagong who I originally probably would have had higher.

Evert got some luck at RG (relatively weak clay era), very lucky at US Open, to have it played on clay for three years, and average luck at the Aussie, but but the tennis gods handed her the shaft at Wimbledon. It was a horrible time to be a baseliner fighting for grass cred. these were the absolute toughest grasscourter years. Most of her career she was the second or at lowest third best grasscourter in the world. but look who was above?. King & Court through '73 when chris was still immature, King, then very briefly Goolagong through '76 while Chris was really gaining her grass legs, then that damn Czeck through 1978- 1987. Evert met her 8 times at Wimbledon, always in semis and finals. Put her at Eastbourne, Kooyong, or Sydney and she has a hell of a shot vs anyone, even Martina (Evert won 15 titles on grass, 5 were majors) but that damp grass and that big lefty hook serve killed Chris. If There was no Martina, You'd being seeing Evert's grass game in a whole different light. in the modern era, I put Martina, Graf, Court, Serena and King ahead but nobody else.

ise to me is Serena above Martina in clay win %. I always thought Serena was very inconsistent on clay, but Martina for many years was too. Which leads an interesting topic perhaps. Now that both have 2 RG titles who is the better clay courter- Martina or Serena? Given that Serena was probably cheated out of a French Open title by a cheating Justine Henin in 2003 I am included to perhaps go with Serena now that to my surprise I see her win % on clay is slightly above. Doesnt Serena also have more tier 1 and tier 2 equivalent titles on clay now?

I don't know but Martina won two and pushed her way into a 6 total finals beat Evert 3 times on clay. Serena's competition in her two finals was Venus and Sharapova and she reached the semis only once otherwise. the other difference is that Martina concentrated her success on Har-Tru, rather than green clay. I think Martina was better.

 

[Xavier G]

Great detailed info, BTURNER.

Court has great all-time stats and is clearly in the 'GOAT' discussion.

Chrissie might 'only' have three Wimbledon titles which looks low in today's light, but she also did win two AO on the green stuff, beat Martina in one final, had 2 Wimbledon victories at the semi-final stage over Martina and beat Nav in a great Eastbourne final, 1979. The girl could play on grass alright.

 

[boredone3456]

Chris had an 88% on grass compared to Graf with 85%? I get that is in part influenced by the fact that there was more grass in Everts day. But when you consider throughout her career she had to play several of the best ever on grass that says a lot. I think in her case "only three Wimbledon's" is anything but an insult...especially when her and court won the same number.

 

[BTURNER]

Chris had an 88% on grass compared to Graf with 85%? I get that is in part influenced by the fact that there was more grass in Everts day. But when you consider throughout her career she had to play several of the best ever on grass that says a lot. I think in her case "only three Wimbledon's" is anything but an insult...especially when her and court won the same number.

If you think about it, Evert was actually more consistent on grass than any other surface (excluding clay). She had one premature loss( before the semis) in that '83 Wimbledon. Now go count the others in big or small tournaments, you can even go back as far as 1972! Now ask yourself who has a winning record over her on grass. Well there's Martina & Court won 3 lost one, Its tied at 3 with BJK (thats all about King getting older) Its Evert 4-3 with Evonne, Its0-1 with Graf (that all about Evert getting old) 3-1 vs Mandlikova (all major meetings) Its approximately 7-4 w/Wade (all those wightman cup meetings excluded) I could go on but you get the point. Evert was literally the second best grasscourter throughout her career, with Martina supplanting King/Court at top banana. Its a lot of years there.

Its also good to remember that Graf's losses include two at the Aussie, and two at Wimbledon in '84, 85 when the girl could barely see over the grass. They put her on the courts aweful young. Grass is the surface where the adults can really bully!

 

[illusions30]

I don't know but Martina won two and pushed her way into a 6 total finals beat Evert 3 times on clay. Serena's competition in her two finals was Venus and Sharapova and she reached the semis only once otherwise. the other difference is that Martina concentrated her success on Har-Tru, rather than green clay. I think Martina was better.

Martina is probably better for now. I think if Serena wins a 3rd RG title that would give her the edge though. I also think she will win a 3rd RG title. I guess another question is if she wins a 4th to tie Henin, how she would compare to Henin overall on clay, and if that would push her over someone like Seles who has 3 titles at RG. I am not sure she will get 4 though. 3 I am almost certain she will at some point, but 4 is more dicey.

One thing to remember is Serena did lose to the eventual champion at RG a number of times, often in very close matches- 2003 semis to Henin, 2007 quarters to Henin, 2009 quarters to Kuznetsova. 2003 and 2009 she was winning the title for sure had she pulled out those very narrow losses. 2010 she lost after having a match point to Stosur, who didnt end up winning the title, but was playing the best tennis of the tournament until the final.

 

[illusions30]

I get that is in part influenced by the fact that there was more grass in Everts day. But when you consider throughout her career she had to play several of the best ever on grass that says a lot. I think in her case "only three Wimbledon's" is anything but an insult...especially when her and court won the same number.

I agree Evert's ability on grass is not accurately reflected with only 3 Wimbledons. 10 Wimbledon finals is an amazing achievement, and she lost 5 to Navratilova. I think she would have won alot of Wimbledons in the Court/King era. She was a nightmare matchup for those two women, especialy Court. King did well vs her at Wimbledon even in old age, so she probably would have been tougher for Chris, but she had an inconsistent career, not contending until her mid 20s, and many years impacted by bad knees (she went on a 11 slam winless streak in the middle of her prime, and didnt win her first slam until almost 25). She would also have loved the more slow bouncy grass courts of today as opposed to the old slick grass of her own, even if the Williams sisters would have been a very tough opponent for her even on those.

 

[CEvertFan]

Interesting info. The very low win % of Steffi (relatively speaking) and the very high win % of Chris on grass are the biggest surprises for me. Nobody thinks of Chris as in the league of Steffi or Martina or several others on grass, yet her win % if a full 5% above Steffi's which is significant and surprising. I would probably demote Steffi to only #3 best grass courter ever behind Wills Moody (my #1) and Navratilova (#2) now seeing her low win % on grass. I wouldnt have originally had Chris even in my top 10 all time on grass, but now would probably find a spot for her at the bottom of the top 10 above someone like Goolagong who I originally probably would have had higher.

The other slight surprise to me is Serena above Martina in clay win %. I always thought Serena was very inconsistent on clay, but Martina for many years was too. Which leads an interesting topic perhaps. Now that both have 2 RG titles who is the better clay courter- Martina or Serena? Given that Serena was probably cheated out of a French Open title by a cheating Justine Henin in 2003 I am included to perhaps go with Serena now that to my surprise I see her win % on clay is slightly above. Doesnt Serena also have more tier 1 and tier 2 equivalent titles on clay now?

Evert made 10 Wimbledon finals during her career which for a baseliner in her era is pretty amazing if you stop to think about it, but it's also why I never rate her above Navratilova because she couldn't win at least one of those 5 Wimbledon finals over Navratilova, where they happened to clash the most often, in the final, out of all the majors.

 

[illusions30]

Evert made 10 Wimbledon finals during her career which for a baseliner in her era is pretty amazing if you stop to think about it, but it's also why I never rate her above Navratilova because she couldn't win at least one of those 5 Wimbledon finals over Navratilova, where they happened to clash the most often, in the final, out of all the majors.

Evert did beat Navratilova at Wimbledon twice though- 1976 and 1980 semis. Are semi losses any less valuable than finals? I guess that is up to the individual, but in 1980 Navratilova was #1 seed and tournament favorite.

I feel it is almost a bit unfair to Evert to blame her for not beating Navratilova in a final there when comparing them overall as players in one sense though. Of course Navratilova is the better grass court player. However they met far more often in the Navratilova peak years than vice versa. Had they met in the Wimbledon finals in 1981, 1980 (based on the semifinal result), 1976 or 1977, Chris probably would have won all of those. Chris is much more consistent in reaching finals in general even when she isnt the best or her best than Martina was. Martina only beat Chris in a RG final once (in 4 attempts) and it was in one of Martina's 2 absolute peak years and a so so time in Chris's career and game.

 

[BTURNER]

Evert did beat Navratilova at Wimbledon twice though- 1976 and 1980 semis. Are semi losses any less valuable than finals? I guess that is up to the individual, but in 1980 Navratilova was #1 seed and tournament favorite.

I feel it is almost a bit unfair to Evert to blame her for not beating Navratilova in a final there when comparing them overall as players in one sense though. Of course Navratilova is the better grass court player. However they met far more often in the Navratilova peak years than vice versa. Had they met in the Wimbledon finals in 1981, 1980 (based on the semifinal result), 1976 or 1977, Chris probably would have won all of those. Chris is much more consistent in reaching finals in general even when she isnt the best or her best than Martina was. Martina only beat Chris in a RG final once (in 4 attempts) and it was in one of Martina's 2 absolute peak years and a so so time in Chris's career and game.

There is not a shadow of doubt in me that Evert's grass game improved immeasurably AFTER her wins at Wimbledon. From 1984-1987 she was far better than earlier and that period really reflects her peak grass play. The change from wood impacted her grass game more than any other surface. It gave her the power on her passes and groundies she had heretofore missed as volleyers enjoyed the greater sweetspot in modern rackets for better serving and volleying. It is also true that her extra work in the gym in '84& 85 showed up and gave her game a physicality that was missing before, thus a weightier serve, greater footspeed, and greater upper body strength to control and put away volleys and overheads. Martina was also a very different/ better grasscourter in 1983-87 than in 1978-79. It almost always took the bionic post '83 Martina to take Evert down . While Chris had most of her late career upsets on hard, indoor and yes even clay courts in the mid '80's, they did not really touch her grass game until '88!

I think what Evertfan is saying, is that Martina took down mature Evert on clay, but Evert never took down a mature Martina at Wimbledon. That 1980 Martina or even the 1982 Martina in Australia was NOTHING like the one to come, and that was the one she needed to beat either in the finals in '84 or 85 or in the semis of 87 or 88. It isn't the round that matters,

 

[Moose Malloy]

Chris had an 88% on grass compared to Graf with 85%? I get that is in part influenced by the fact that there was more grass in Everts day.

I think achieving a high win % with less events on grass is actually easier than a having a high win % with many events on grass, since you have a lot more chances to rack up losses with the latter scenario. Look at Fed and Sampras records on grass compared to Laver, etc.

Evert has the highest career winning percentage of all time, so I'm not sure why anyone would be that surprised at her being ranked higher than Graf in grass win %. When you make the semis of pretty much every major in your career and play 20 years, you will likely be near the top of any win % list on any surface. And Graf didn't really get close to Martina's year after year type domination on grass.

There is no reference to Serena at all in the top 10 on carpet, probably because she hasn't achieved the 40 match threshhold.

Carpet events don't exist anymore on either tour. Players were complaining about it being an unsafe surface.

 

[BTURNER]

Here is a far simpler equation for looking at the slams of these women ( excluding Court). I can't take credit for this or vouch for the numbers, because another person was inspired to do this math. I am just quoting it on this forum. Don't know why this person did not include Court.

Grand Slam W-F-SF-QF (total Slams) chronological order
Evert: 18-16-18-2 (56)
Navratilova: 18-14-12-9 (67)
Graf: 22-8-6-5 (54)
Serena: 23-10-7-14 (81)

Now let's convert those to point values, using 10 points for a Slam win, 5 for a final, 3 for a semifinal, and 1 for a quarterfinal and put them in numerical order. We get:

Evert: 316
Serena: 315
Navratilova: 295
Graf: 283


Now let's divide them by Slams played:

Evert: 5.6
Graf: 5.2
Navratilova: 4.4
Serena: 3.9

In other words, Evert comes out ahead in both categories, in terms of how deep she went in Slams. but we also have to put these stats in the context of their era. Evert and Navratilova played in a time when they would not be expected to play in all slams in the 70's, and other top ten player opponents were not nessisarily showing up consistently to compete against them, the way they were in Graf and Serena's day. The former two did not take all their opportunities at RG and Australia, and sometimes when they did, others did not. Graf and Serena had consistently deep fields at all these.