Medvedev’s Unstoppable Run – Can He Dethrone Alcaraz at Indian Wells?

Alcaraz is the defending champion and looked sharp in his matches, but Medvedev’s relentless baseline game and improved court positioning could pose serious problems. Could this be Medvedev’s moment to turn the tables after last year’s final?

Let’s discuss—who are you backing in this potential showdown?
 

stules

Rookie
I think Medvedev could definitely challenge Alcaraz this time. His baseline game is solid, and he's been playing with a lot of confidence lately. Alcaraz is tough, but Medvedev’s consistency might just give him the edge.
 

ChrisJR3264

Hall of Fame
Meds game is coming around after a slow start. He literally said he took a lot of time off - understandable since he had a new born.

But alcaraz is playing at an unreal level. I’m not sure med or rune will be able to upset Carlos in the final.
 
Meds game is coming around after a slow start. He literally said he took a lot of time off - understandable since he had a new born.

But alcaraz is playing at an unreal level. I’m not sure med or rune will be able to upset Carlos in the final.

Med’s game has turned around because he’s converting game points on serve and return. He leads the tour in points played per return game, i.e., 7.1, but he wasn’t breaking earlier in the year. He’s also been holding g serve better and not blowing game points up 40-30 or AD.

Carlos right now is breaking at a ridiculous 37% of return games. If you don’t have a strong hold game, you have zero chance against him.
 

dking68

Legend
Meds game is coming around after a slow start. He literally said he took a lot of time off - understandable since he had a new born.

But alcaraz is playing at an unreal level. I’m not sure med or rune will be able to upset Carlos in the final.
None of them will. Draper is Carlos’s biggest hurdle
 

ChrisJR3264

Hall of Fame
In general he’s his biggest threat to the title
Not sure I agree with this.
Medvedev regaining form and confidence - is better than both. And rune in form is > Draper.

And even then I’m not sure any are taking down Carlos… but then again anything can happen. But these courts just suit Alcaraz game.
 

Dropshot777

Rookie
Alcaraz is the defending champion and looked sharp in his matches, but Medvedev’s relentless baseline game and improved court positioning could pose serious problems. Could this be Medvedev’s moment to turn the tables after last year’s final?

Let’s discuss—who are you backing in this potential showdown?
Draper will beat Medvedev. He's in amazing form. Now that sinner's gone, these tournaments will be way more competitive, and with alcaraz nowhere near as consistent as Jannik, people like draper will have some opportunities for some big titles.
 

ChrisJR3264

Hall of Fame
Draper will beat Medvedev. He's in amazing form. Now that sinner's gone, these tournaments will be way more competitive, and with alcaraz nowhere near as consistent as Jannik, people like draper will have some opportunities for some big titles.
These courts cater perfectly to Carlos. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t win this tournament.
 
Carlos Alcaraz STILL hasn't dropped a set :p
drU2G41.jpg
 
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ForehandCross

G.O.A.T.
I don't think it was a Schooling per se. Medvedev caught lightning in a bottle that day, and Alca was all over the place when it came to playing clutch.
Did you watch the match? It was not lightning in a bottle, it was systematically bullying Alcaraz for the way he plays and then Medvedev went one step ahead and started being aggressive himself. The person you are quoting is right, their match up is court dependent, on this slow court Alcaraz should win easily.

As Alcaraz grows older and Medvedev regresses even further, he should be coming on top on any court.
 

dking68

Legend
Not sure I agree with this.
Medvedev regaining form and confidence - is better than both. And rune in form is > Draper.

And even then I’m not sure any are taking down Carlos… but then again anything can happen. But these courts just suit Alcaraz game.
Draper has actually beaten Alcaraz properly in straight sets in Queens in 2024. Rune hasn’t had a proper win over Alcaraz.

Also Draper has made a major SF. Rune hasnt

Draper has actually been improving a lot these days and I trust his mental strength over Rune. But Draper is his biggest test. And if Alcaraz faces him at Wimbledon this year, he may upset him early.
 
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ChrisJR3264

Hall of Fame
Draper has actually beaten Alcaraz properly in straight sets in Queens in 2024. Rune hasn’t had a proper win over Alcaraz.

Also Draper has made a major SF. Rune hasnt

Draper has actually been improving a lot these days and I trust his mental strength over Rune. But Draper is his biggest test. And if Alcaraz faces him at Wimbledon this year, he may upset him early.
Rune did beat Djoko for a M1000 though.
Med beat alc in a GS semifinal in 4.

Draper is an upcoming talent. No denying. But from an accomplishment stand point, both have won more.
And I wanted to see him do well against alcaraz at AO but he did get bounced.
Drapers USO SF was a reflection of a lucky draw, similar to Ruuds back in 2022.

Your argument is based off projection. But rune has more upside than Draper. Better mover. Better fitness too. Rune has slid a bit since rome of 2023 but many forget he was dealing with some back injuries he played through - even in Turin finals.
 

ChaelAZ

G.O.A.T.
Most player would have some baggage in the 2/6 H2H, but I don't think that is as bad for Meddy. But there is also a reason he is 2/6 against Alcaraz, so odds are not in his favor.

But in the words of Han Solo for Meddy...."never tell me the odds".
 

dking68

Legend
Rune did beat Djoko for a M1000 though.
Med beat alc in a GS semifinal in 4.

Draper is an upcoming talent. No denying. But from an accomplishment stand point, both have won more.
And I wanted to see him do well against alcaraz at AO but he did get bounced.
Drapers USO SF was a reflection of a lucky draw, similar to Ruuds back in 2022.

Your argument is based off projection. But rune has more upside than Draper. Better mover. Better fitness too. Rune has slid a bit since rome of 2023 but many forget he was dealing with some back injuries he played through - even in Turin finals.
:-D:-D:-D. Draper got by 3 5 setters easily at AO this year. Rune starts to cramp at the end of one 5 set match
 

placebo

Rookie
Rune did beat Djoko for a M1000 though.
Med beat alc in a GS semifinal in 4.

Draper is an upcoming talent. No denying. But from an accomplishment stand point, both have won more.
And I wanted to see him do well against alcaraz at AO but he did get bounced.
Drapers USO SF was a reflection of a lucky draw, similar to Ruuds back in 2022.

Your argument is based off projection. But rune has more upside than Draper. Better mover. Better fitness too. Rune has slid a bit since rome of 2023 but many forget he was dealing with some back injuries he played through - even in Turin finals.
I think the fact that Rune has made it to the semifinals of 3 of the last 4 masters (Cincinnati, Paris, IW) is underrated as well. He is quietly making a comeback.
 

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
Did you watch the match?
Yeah man, I did. I had to wake up at a time which was completely shítty for my schedule that day, but I still watched it from beginning to the end.
It was not lightning in a bottle, it was systematically bullying Alcaraz for the way he plays and then Medvedev went one step ahead and started being aggressive himself.
It was Medvedev's highest level in a match since his famous USO F win over Djoko, especially off the ground. He was zoning in the Alca match in a way we've not seen from him since then or before that, going back to the tail end of 2021.

However, Alcaraz's mental walkover in set 2 after losing set 1, where he was the better player; played a major role in deciding the outcome of this match too. It wasn't until the 3rd set, that Alca woke up & decided to fight, and even then he was way too erratic, missing short putaway shots.

Medvedev became aggressive & started to take control of many rallies from the beginning, but again, their matchup is poised in the favour of Carlitos even when Meddy is aggressive, so ofc I'd expect him to do better than to find bottom of the net or stands when Meddy was asking to be broken back at 5-3 in set 4.
The person you are quoting is right, their match up is court dependent, on this slow court Alcaraz should win easily.
Their matchup is not court dependent, Alcaraz has a general matchup advantage everywhere over Medvedev. Otherwise, how'd you explain the Turin & Wimbledon matches going the way of Alca, where the conditions are low bouncing and/or fast.
As Alcaraz grows older and Medvedev regresses even further, he should be coming on top on any court.
Medvedev is one of my favourite players and I'd want him to win something big on HC this year. He's been so unlucky to run into Alcaraz or d0p€r Sinner last year, again & again, for every big HC run of his.
If the d0p€r had been caught right at the beginning of his d0p!ng run(probably somewhere around August 2023), Medvedev would've won AO, USO & Miami last year.
 
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