Medvedev has posted the highest dominance ratio in a USO title run in the ATP era

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Top 10:

2021 Medvedev - 1.71
1998 Rafter - 1.66
2010 Nadal - 1.65
1993 Sampras - 1.64
2017 Nadal - 1.64
1991 Edberg - 1.62
2013 Nadal - 1.60
2006 Federer - 1.59
2003 Roddick - 1.57
2007 Federer - 1.54

(The lowest figure belongs unsurprisingly to 2016 Wawrinka at 1.19.)

What it tells us? Servebot pushdom is the future of percentage tennis, yes?

 

[Sudacafan]

Sorry for any inconveniences, but I don’t understand. I need to be educated in the dominance ratio science.

 

[The Blond Blur]

Medvedev has posted the highest dominance ratio in a USO title run in the ATP era

How long will this mythical record stand?

 

[Third Serve]

ned goat

 

[Moose Malloy]

are you using stats from the ATP? stats from the 90s are incorrect there(counting aces and doubles twice)

 

[Kralingen]

Nadal that’s a lot more impressive than I was expecting from him. All I can picture is a platter of high cholestorol food and the phrases “epic” and “GOATy AF”

Rafter and Sampras are even more surprising, I suppose they must have had incredible service games that tournament. Neither are renowned as great returners and Sampras actively tanked return games when up a break.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

are you using stats from the ATP? stats from the 90s are incorrect there(counting aces and doubles twice)

That's right but it seems DRs are likely slightly boosted as a result so the actual figures are a bit lower not higher and Medvedev's record still stands.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Sorry for any inconveniences, but I don’t understand. I need to be educated in the dominance ratio science.

DR = Own RPW divided by opponent RPW.
RPW = return points won %

 

[Kralingen]

One other key factor inherent to dominance ratio. Time spent (average # of shots) on own service games vs on opponent’s. Med has to have this optimized to a T.

Extremely quick service games, 5-6 seconds between points, high unreturned serve % leading to short points overall. contrasted with deep return position, low ace %, grinding push-bot points on his opponent’s service games. Probably 3-4x more time and effort spent on return games than on his own service games.

It’s perfectly designed to annoy opponents. I agree with your final conclusion btw.

 

[The Blond Blur]

ned goat

Nadal that’s a lot more impressive than I was expecting from him. All I can picture is a platter of high cholestorol food and the phrases “epic” and “GOATy AF”

Rafter and Sampras are even more surprising, I suppose they must have had incredible service games that tournament. Neither are renowned as great returners and Sampras actively tanked return games when up a break.

 

[Bartelby]

Medvedev had a weak draw, that's for sure.

 

[beltsman]

Wow Djokovic was totally dominated

 

[Third Serve]

In the interest of starting a heated discussion, where do Novak's runs rank in this respect?

 

[Bartelby]

Gotta love being dominated by a Russian!

Wow Djokovic was totally dominated

 

[travlerajm]

Medvedev had a weak draw, that's for sure.

When you have the highest hardcourt dominance ratio in slams of any current player over the last two years (yes even higher than Djokovic), it makes your draws look weaker than they actually are.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

Top 10:

2021 Medvedev - 1.71
1998 Rafter - 1.66
2010 Nadal - 1.65
1993 Sampras - 1.64
2017 Nadal - 1.64
1991 Edberg - 1.62
2013 Nadal - 1.60
2006 Federer - 1.59
2003 Roddick - 1.57
2007 Federer - 1.54

(The lowest figure belongs unsurprisingly to 2016 Wawrinka at 1.19.)

What it tells us? Servebot pushdom is the future of percentage tennis, yes?

But Hewitt so much better (according to resident TTW experts).

 

[Jonesy]

We already know Med is that good. Unfortunately the agenda here is another.

 

[ForehandCross]

We already know Med is that good. Unfortunately the agenda here is another.

Unfortunately I have also seen Djokovic fans saying Med got lucky and would not even make finals with Djokovic's draw.

For all the whining of same old same old, majority of each big 3 fan bases have refused to give Medvedev the credit he deserves.

Med would probably straight set Matteo. And get past Zverev in 4. Then beat Djokovic in a long match.

 

[Third Serve]

I think Med would still have won even with Novak's draw. In fact, I think he'd have handled the pre-final road much better than Djokovic did. I don't see him dropping so many random sets along the way.

Zverev would actually pose some problems, for sure, but I don't really see anything in the way Medvedev played throughout the tournament that would suggest a defeat for him. You see, Zverev had several dips in that match that I can only attribute to his poor mental fortitude, and as we've seen in other matches like last year's final, these aren't problems that only show up against someone with the "aura" of Djokovic.

 

[travlerajm]

I think Med would still have won even with Novak's draw. In fact, I think he'd have handled the pre-final road much better than Djokovic did. I don't see him dropping so many random sets along the way.

Zverev would actually pose some problems, for sure, but I don't really see anything in the way Medvedev played throughout the tournament that would suggest a defeat for him. You see, Zverev had several dips in that match that I can only attribute to his poor mental fortitude, and as we've seen in other matches like last year's final, these aren't problems that only show up against someone with the "aura" of Djokovic.

Also, Medvedev hasn’t lost to Zverev in nearly 3 years, unlike Djoker.

 

[Third Serve]

Also, Medvedev hasn’t lost to Zverev in nearly 3 years, unlike Djoker.

Yeah Med pretty much owns Zverev at this stage in their careers. Zed hasn't won any matches against him since his breakthrough in 2019 barring the one at the ATP Finals where it's universally agreed Med pretty much stank up the court in his time at the tournament.

 

[Tshooter]

 

[ForehandCross]

People are being stupid thinking Z would be able to stretch Med for long, Z in his power baselining mode might win the tournament after a very tough 50-50 battle with Med, and in that scenario Djokovic still gets straight setted in the final. Z power baselining is the highest peak on tour right now.


But, Z DID NOT play aggressively for like 4 sets of the semis. That will kill him against Med who can handle Z even in his aggressive Mode due to his insane defense and very well protected serve.
Given how Z actually played the tournament, Med would beat him in 4.

Then beat Djokovic in 4-5 who would be completely undercooked due to no warm up tournaments and no top opponents faced . Djokovic's shot tolerance was like 15% down than his usual self this year. Even while redlining against Berretini he was missing sitters.
Med would make him pay for that big time.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

In the interest of starting a heated discussion, where do Novak's runs rank in this respect?

1.42 1.46 1.41
Strong but not at the top for serve efficiency.

 

[Milehigh5280]

I think this partially reflects the easy path Medvedev had, but he is really damn good on hard courts. His game can be awkward, but it gets the job done. I can see him winning 4 or 5 hard court slams. And one thing I think that sets him apart from his fellow Next Gen, is that he doesn't seem to get in a mental funk. Compare him to Tsitsipas after their respective losses to Djokovic earlier in the year. Med has had pretty consistent results while Tsits has had abysmal results since the RG final.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Nadal that’s a lot more impressive than I was expecting from him. All I can picture is a platter of high cholestorol food and the phrases “epic” and “GOATy AF”

Rafter and Sampras are even more surprising, I suppose they must have had incredible service games that tournament. Neither are renowned as great returners and Sampras actively tanked return games when up a break.

The beauty of peak Sampras is him going full effort on return as he felt like it, along with the usual service lock. Combine that with a feeble draw (onlt top 10 player he faced was Chang) and it's a recipe for a huge DR. Rafter's figure is certainly unexpected, he must have been on fire all fortnight.

Nadal was very efficient on serve in the 2010/13 runs; only broken 5 and 4 times respectively and that's with Djokovic in the final; dropped serve twice/once (!) in six matches before the final. Whatever the draw, that reflects a strong level. 2017 Nadal somewhat sloppy in early rounds but rose to a decent level combined with a once-in-a-lifetime ultra-mug draw.

 

[Third Serve]

Rafter's figure is certainly unexpected, he must have been on fire all fortnight.

This was the tournament with that crazy winner-UFE stat in the final right?

 

[Kralingen]

@Third Serve @AnOctorokForDinner

Just had a look at Rafter’s 1998 draw, seriously wtf how did he pull that off?

It wasn’t like he had clay specialists and qualifiers like Medvedev/Nadal’s draw, Rafter had to play Goran, Pete, and then Philipoussis, aka 3 of the top 10/15 most efficient servers of all time.

That’s absurd.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

This was the tournament with that crazy winner-UFE stat in the final right?

Yeah, TA has him at 38 winners 3 UEs lol. That's what you get in a s&v contest where one player is markedly better and does everything confidently. Philippoussis also has only 12 UEs in play which isn't much, problem is he also has 13 DFs. He was trying to blast big second serves, which didn't really work.

 

[travlerajm]

I think this partially reflects the easy path Medvedev had, but he is really damn good on hard courts. His game can be awkward, but it gets the job done. I can see him winning 4 or 5 hard court slams. And one thing I think that sets him apart from his fellow Next Gen, is that he doesn't seem to get in a mental funk. Compare him to Tsitsipas after their respective losses to Djokovic earlier in the year. Med has had pretty consistent results while Tsits has had abysmal results since the RG final.

In Tsitsipas’ defense, it’s because he sucks pretty bad on grass and on hardcourt, for a guy who’s supposed to be World #3.

 

[travlerajm]

The beauty of peak Sampras is him going full effort on return as he felt like it, along with the usual service lock. Combine that with a feeble draw (onlt top 10 player he faced was Chang) and it's a recipe for a huge DR. Rafter's figure is certainly unexpected, he must have been on fire all fortnight.

Nadal was very efficient on serve in the 2010/13 runs; only broken 5 and 4 times respectively and that's with Djokovic in the final; dropped serve twice/once (!) in six matches before the final. Whatever the draw, that reflects a strong level. 2017 Nadal somewhat sloppy in early rounds but rose to a decent level combined with a once-in-a-lifetime ultra-mug draw.

Guy’s like Rafter and Edberg were much better returners
than most people realize. Excellent volley skillz correlate more with good return of serve than the ability to hit big topspin groundstrokes, because in general you can’t use a topspin groundstroke on a first serve - you need to block it back. Same skill as stab volley.

 

[travlerajm]

@Third Serve @AnOctorokForDinner

Just had a look at Rafter’s 1998 draw, seriously wtf how did he pull that off?

It wasn’t like he had clay specialists and qualifiers like Medvedev/Nadal’s draw, Rafter had to play Goran, Pete, and then Philipoussis, aka 3 of the top 10/15 most efficient servers of all time.

That’s absurd.

Rafter pulling off back-to-back US Open titles under peak Pete’s watch is one of the most underrated achievements of the open era.

 

[Sudacafan]

When you have the highest hardcourt dominance ratio in slams of any current player over the last two years (yes even higher than Djokovic), it makes your draws look weaker than they actually are.

I suspect that Medvedev is your player.

 

[travlerajm]

I suspect that Medvedev is your player.

I have felt a strange sense of kinship with him since he came on tour, even before he was any good, because he is the only pro I’ve ever seen who has ugly strokes and annoying baseline strategy that resemble mine. I feel pride in his rise to the top.

 

[guga_fan]

People are being stupid thinking Z would be able to stretch Med for long, Z in his power baselining mode might win the tournament after a very tough 50-50 battle with Med, and in that scenario Djokovic still gets straight setted in the final. Z power baselining is the highest peak on tour right now.


But, Z DID NOT play aggressively for like 4 sets of the semis. That will kill him against Med who can handle Z even in his aggressive Mode due to his insane defense and very well protected serve.
Given how Z actually played the tournament, Med would beat him in 4.

Then beat Djokovic in 4-5 who would be completely undercooked due to no warm up tournaments and no top opponents faced . Djokovic's shot tolerance was like 15% down than his usual self this year. Even while redlining against Berretini he was missing sitters.
Med would make him pay for that big time.

Zverev level dipped in the 2nd set and the 5th, the latter probably related to mental exhaustion. Zverev took a set in the two last meetings against Medvedev, with the last one a very tight 3-setter, and he was in the run of his life. He might have lost, but it would definitely be a hard fought match.

 

[Clay lover]

Top 10:

2021 Medvedev - 1.71
1998 Rafter - 1.66
2010 Nadal - 1.65
1993 Sampras - 1.64
2017 Nadal - 1.64
1991 Edberg - 1.62
2013 Nadal - 1.60
2006 Federer - 1.59
2003 Roddick - 1.57
2007 Federer - 1.54

(The lowest figure belongs unsurprisingly to 2016 Wawrinka at 1.19.)

What it tells us? Servebot pushdom is the future of percentage tennis, yes?

Servebot pushdom. Perfect description of his game.

 

[NatF]

Top 10:

2021 Medvedev - 1.71
1998 Rafter - 1.66
2010 Nadal - 1.65
1993 Sampras - 1.64
2017 Nadal - 1.64
1991 Edberg - 1.62
2013 Nadal - 1.60
2006 Federer - 1.59
2003 Roddick - 1.57
2007 Federer - 1.54

(The lowest figure belongs unsurprisingly to 2016 Wawrinka at 1.19.)

What it tells us? Servebot pushdom is the future of percentage tennis, yes?

Tells us that his draw was a joke lol.

 

[Nadal_Django]

Weak era opponent.

 

[aldeayeah]

Some soft draws in that list I reckon.

 

[Sudacafan]

I have felt a strange sense of kinship with him since he came on tour, even before he was any good, because he is the only pro I’ve ever seen who has ugly strokes and annoying baseline strategy that resemble mine. I feel pride in his rise to the top.

You must hate Federer.

 

[Nadal_Django]

Imagine peak 2004-05 Hewitt's DR in 2021 USO.

 

[Roddickulous1]

Rafter pulling off back-to-back US Open titles under peak Pete’s watch is one of the most underrated achievements of the open era.

Nothing against Rafter but he didn't face Pete in 97 and Pete got a leg injury midway during their 98 match so certainly not anywhere near peak form. Pete was clearly limited towards the latter stages of that match.

 

[travlerajm]

Nothing against Rafter but he didn't face Pete in 97 and Pete got a leg injury midway during their 98 match so certainly not anywhere near peak form. Pete was clearly limited towards the latter stages of that match.

That’s like saying Medvedev doesn’t deserve his title because he didn’t have to face 2006 Fed, 2010 Nadal, or 2011 Djokovic.
Rafter was the best US Open player in the world for a two-year period, and the draw didn’t have anything to do with it.

 

[mike danny]

1.42 1.46 1.41
Strong but not at the top for serve efficiency.

What about Fed's 5 runs?

 

[D.Nalby12]

Unbelievable stuff. May be it's because of quality of opponents faced. Yet averaging DR of 1.71 over 7 Bo5 matches is remarkable. May be Med' peak level is more impressive than we thought.

 

[weakera]

Top 10:

2021 Medvedev - 1.71
1998 Rafter - 1.66
2010 Nadal - 1.65
1993 Sampras - 1.64
2017 Nadal - 1.64
1991 Edberg - 1.62
2013 Nadal - 1.60
2006 Federer - 1.59
2003 Roddick - 1.57
2007 Federer - 1.54

(The lowest figure belongs unsurprisingly to 2016 Wawrinka at 1.19.)

What it tells us? Servebot pushdom is the future of percentage tennis, yes?

"Clay specialist"

 

[Roddickulous1]

That’s like saying Medvedev doesn’t deserve his title because he didn’t have to face 2006 Fed, 2010 Nadal, or 2011 Djokovic.
Rafter was the best US Open player in the world for a two-year period, and the draw didn’t have anything to do with it.

Not really. You're creating a strawman argument here. Nobody said anything about Rafter not deserving his titles.

You mentioned he won them "under peak Pete's watch" when Pete literally had zero to do with his first title run and Pete got injured during their 98 SF so you can hardly say he was in peak form.

 

[travlerajm]

Not really. You're creating a strawman argument here. Nobody said anything about Rafter not deserving his titles.

You mentioned he won them "under peak Pete's watch" when Pete literally had zero to do with his first title run and Pete got injured during their 98 SF so you can hardly say he was in peak form.

Under Pete’s watch was accurate. He was watching on TV while Rafter won back-to-back US Open titles during his 6-year reign as #1.

 

[RF-18]

Tells us that his draw was a joke lol.

His draw wasn't too good but it takes a great player to post up such numbers.

 

[RF-18]

"Clay specialist"

Very clay heavy career but he certainly has the ability play on other surfaces aswell. Better than Muster and Kuerten definitely.