Medvedev is MUCH better than Djokovic in Bo5 in hot conditions

Tennisfan339

Professional
85 degrees, hardly 50% of humidity and the sun will have disappeared at 4:30 pm. I wouldn't call it "hot" conditions. Conditions were much more extreme in Tokyo and Medvedev was also struggling if I recall correctly. The match against Nishikori started 4 hours earlier in comparison, he was bothered by the shadows but it won't be the case at 4:30.I doubt it'll be a determining factor.
 

travlerajm

G.O.A.T.
85 degrees, hardly 50% of humidity and the sun will have disappeared at 4:30 pm. I wouldn't call it "hot" conditions. Conditions were much more extreme in Tokyo and Medvedev was also struggling if I recall correctly. The match against Nishikori started 4 hours earlier in comparison, he was bothered by the shadows but it won't be the case at 4:30.I doubt it'll be a determining factor.
The data shows that 85 degrees is right in Med’s sweet spot.

It also shows that Djokovic isn’t quite Djokovic when the temperature is in the 80s.
 

topher

Hall of Fame
You have to factor in opponents as well, I should think. That could significantly bias things if Med was playing more scrubs in the heat.

Did you make it though, OP? If so, impressive and thanks for the effort.
 

Raul_SJ

G.O.A.T.
85 degrees, hardly 50% of humidity and the sun will have disappeared at 4:30 pm. I wouldn't call it "hot" conditions. Conditions were much more extreme in Tokyo
Tokyo match conditions were 86 degrees with 60% relative humidity. Tokyo was three sets, not five. And Med says he almost died in Tokyo.

If it goes five sets, advantage Djoker. Not particularly impressed with Med's fitness.

 

nachiket nolefam

Hall of Fame
Tokyo match conditions were 86 degrees with 60% relative humidity. Tokyo was three sets, not five. And Med says he almost died in Tokyo.

If it goes five sets, advantage Djoker. Not particularly impressed with Med's fitness.

looks like he is dying lol. He couldn't handle the heat. Fognini could have taken him out.
 

travlerajm

G.O.A.T.
You have to factor in opponents as well, I should think. That could significantly bias things if Med was playing more scrubs in the heat.

Did you make it though, OP? If so, impressive and thanks for the effort.
The sample size is 49 matches total, with 11 to 13 matches in each of the 4 bars. The difficulty of competition was about equal for both players, because the data are from the same tournaments for both players, and the temperature was about the same for both players when the players were playing the same round.


To put this chart into perspective, a Return Points Ratio of 1.5 in a slam tournament is about the level of a typical slam quarterfinalist.

A ratio of 2.2 is higher than 2006 Federer.
 

ND-13

Hall of Fame
This is what you do when you slice and dice the data until you see one way to bring up hope.

Unfortunately OP, Djokovic is a way better player than Med in BO5
 

travlerajm

G.O.A.T.
This is what you do when you slice and dice the data until you see one way to bring up hope.

Unfortunately OP, Djokovic is a way better player than Med in BO5
FYI, since I published the data, Vegas betting has been huge on Medvedev. 59% of all wagers to date on Med, per Sportsbooks Review.
 

Vamos Rafa Nadal

Hall of Fame
It will be around 88 degrees yet not incredibly humid. I think this will be perfect for Medvedev and gives him yet another advantage in the match. Will he be able to capitalize on it? I sure hope so!
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
Where did you pick up this data? How many matches did each play in 80+? Which ones? The sample is pretty small, so if Djoko played say 3 matches in 80+ and those were in the last week as a slam, whereas Medv. played 3-4 matches in the first week, then that pretty much nullifies the data. In other words: More context please
You have to factor in opponents as well, I should think. That could significantly bias things if Med was playing more scrubs in the heat.
Exactly

Edit: You answered this already, sorry
The sample size is 49 matches total, with 11 to 13 matches in each of the 4 bars. The difficulty of competition was about equal for both players, because the data are from the same tournaments for both players, and the temperature was about the same for both players when the players were playing the same round.


To put this chart into perspective, a Return Points Ratio of 1.5 in a slam tournament is about the level of a typical slam quarterfinalist.

A ratio of 2.2 is higher than 2006 Federer.
 
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Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
From what I’m reading Novak is a 70% favorite
That 60 % of the money is put on Medvedev doesn't mean Vegas and the market sees Med as the favorite. It merely means that they see Medvedev as less of an underdog than the initial odds have suggested he is. @travlerajm
In AO, it was about 90 F in quarters and semis, when Med destroyed Rublev and Tsits in straights.

But it dropped to about 60 F in final against Djok.
That's an interesting point I didn't know
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
OP/ @travlerajm
If we are to put any stock in your theory, then
1) it means that Medv. has the advantage early on and
2) that Djoko will have the weather advantage later in the match, when the temperature drops to 26 (79) at 7, 25 (77) at 8 and 24 (75) at 9.

Finally, I think there's a massive difference between playing in the sun and in the shadow. As far as I gather, the entire match will be played in the shadow. I.e. 80+ doesn't feel as hot as it does in say, Australia, Tokyo and so on because of the respective stadiums.
Your theory gives me a tiny bit of hope for Medvedev, but I still can't see him beat Djokovic tonight
 

weakera

G.O.A.T.
FYI, since I published the data, Vegas betting has been huge on Medvedev. 59% of all wagers to date on Med, per Sportsbooks Review.
This is because tournament metrics to date point to Medvedev being in significantly stronger form. But most people don't consider that a factor and expect Djokovic to come out guns blazing.
 

travlerajm

G.O.A.T.
Where did you pick up this data? How many matches did each play in 80+? Which ones? The sample is pretty small, so if Djoko played say 3 matches in 80+ and those were in the last week as a slam, whereas Medv. played 3-4 matches in the first week, then that pretty much nullifies the data. In other words: More context please

Exactly
Happy to provide some details:

Djok matches over 80F:

AO 20 4th
AO 20 semi

US 20 1st
US 20 2nd
US 20 3rd
US 20 4th

AO 21 Qtr

US 21 1st
US 21 3rd
US 21 4th
US 21 Qtr

Djok:
1st x 2
2nd x 1
3rd x 2
4th x 3
Qtr x 2
Semi x 1
Final x zero

Medvedev matches over 80F:

AO 20 2nd
AO 20 3rd

US 20 1st
US 20 2nd
US 20 3rd
US 20 4th
US 20 Qtr

AO 21 2nd
AO 21 Qtr
AO 21 Semi

US 21 1st
US 21 Qtr

Med:
1st x 2
2nd x 3
3rd x 2
4th x 1
Qtr x 3
Semi x 1
Final x zero
 

travlerajm

G.O.A.T.
This is because tournament metrics to date point to Medvedev being in significantly stronger form. But most people don't consider that a factor and expect Djokovic to come out guns blazing.
But bookies take that into account in setting odds, and aim for 50/50. 60% is big disparity and gives the bookies a huge liability.

I am saying that the betting pattern changed overnight, and almost everyone is going all in on Med in the last 8h.
 

travlerajm

G.O.A.T.
But bookies take that into account in setting odds, and aim for 50/50. 60% is big disparity and gives the bookies a huge liability.

I am saying that the betting pattern changed overnight, and almost everyone is going all in on Med in the last 8h.
Now up to 62% of wagers on Med! Still climbing
 

cortadew

New User
Generally 0 is the low end and 100 is the top end.

It's the same simplicity of the metric system you guys always brag about.
Fahrenheit was a very poorly-designed scale. Fahrenheit was created with the intent being "OK, so 0 is the coldest it's ever been around here—about as cold as this brine mixture I made to represent it—and the human body is naturally at 100. OK, based on that scale, water freezes at 32 and boils at 212, interesting... that'll probably be easier to replicate than human body temperature." It turned out his brine wasn't fully mixed and would stabilize at -3°, so eventually they had to recalibrate this based on water's freezing point instead. It reeks of bad craft, but he was the guy who invented the mercury thermometer, so that's why it caught on.
Celsius, on the other hand, was created with the intent being "0° is freezing, 100° is boiling, and both of these measurements are at one atmosphere of pressure." Fahrenheit never had that last part until it got a specific definition in relation to Celsius. It's a much better-designed standard that was much easier to accurately replicate.
 

MeatTornado

G.O.A.T.
Yeah, that's why even scientists use Celsius in your country. To make science even more harder because why not.
Measuring things on a scientific scale like for freezing point or boiling point makes more sense in celsius.

Measuring daily outdoor air temperature in Fahrenheit makes so much more sense it shouldn't even be debatable. It's roughly a 0 to 100 scale.
 

tudwell

Legend
Question: Is the rise in Medvedev’s dominance ratio on hot days mostly due to an increase in service points won? Or does he just play better in general?
 
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