Medvedev is MUCH better than Djokovic in Bo5 in hot conditions
- Thread starter travlerajm
- Start date
bluetrain4
G.O.A.T.
Still, he's never beat Novak in best of 5.
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
27CCan you translate that temperature limit to common-sense normal Celsius degrees?
ghostofMecir
Hall of Fame
Good data here but Med isn’t going to win. He might win a set and that’s it.
Tennisfan339
Professional
85 degrees, hardly 50% of humidity and the sun will have disappeared at 4:30 pm. I wouldn't call it "hot" conditions. Conditions were much more extreme in Tokyo and Medvedev was also struggling if I recall correctly. The match against Nishikori started 4 hours earlier in comparison, he was bothered by the shadows but it won't be the case at 4:30.I doubt it'll be a determining factor.
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
The data shows that 85 degrees is right in Med’s sweet spot.
It also shows that Djokovic isn’t quite Djokovic when the temperature is in the 80s.
Mediterranean Might
Professional
Medvedev much better than Djokovic in Bo5 anything??
Raul_SJ
G.O.A.T.
Tokyo match conditions were 86 degrees with 60% relative humidity. Tokyo was three sets, not five. And Med says he almost died in Tokyo.
If it goes five sets, advantage Djoker. Not particularly impressed with Med's fitness.
1990's Graphite
Hall of Fame
When mgr/I, short rackets, wristbands, gorilla tape, screen measurements are spent, start general pro player threads
nolefam_2024
G.O.A.T.
Much better nothing. He got demolished in AO.
nolefam_2024
G.O.A.T.
looks like he is dying lol. He couldn't handle the heat. Fognini could have taken him out.Tokyo match conditions were 86 degrees with 60% relative humidity. Tokyo was three sets, not five. And Med says he almost died in Tokyo.
If it goes five sets, advantage Djoker. Not particularly impressed with Med's fitness.
Raul_SJ
G.O.A.T.
How many five set matches has Med even played?
Our Djoker is king of five set matches.
nolefam_2024
G.O.A.T.
Fognini was struggling too. And we know that guy has mentality of a chump.
nolefam_2024
G.O.A.T.
26-29 Celsius. It's hot but not blazing.
Bubcay
Legend
Humidity? That seems to affect both of them more. Apparently, there is always a bit of a breeze at Arthur Ashe too, so that should help.
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
In AO, it was about 90 F in quarters and semis, when Med destroyed Rublev and Tsits in straights.
But it dropped to about 60 F in final against Djok.
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
The sample size is 49 matches total, with 11 to 13 matches in each of the 4 bars. The difficulty of competition was about equal for both players, because the data are from the same tournaments for both players, and the temperature was about the same for both players when the players were playing the same round.
To put this chart into perspective, a Return Points Ratio of 1.5 in a slam tournament is about the level of a typical slam quarterfinalist.
A ratio of 2.2 is higher than 2006 Federer.
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
FYI, since I published the data, Vegas betting has been huge on Medvedev. 59% of all wagers to date on Med, per Sportsbooks Review.
stingstang
Professional
The heat at the last Miami crushed med so bad he was struggling to walk!
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
Fahrenheit makes so much more sense than Celsius it's not even funny.Can you translate that temperature limit to common-sense normal Celsius degrees?
V
Vamos Rafa Nadal
Guest
It will be around 88 degrees yet not incredibly humid. I think this will be perfect for Medvedev and gives him yet another advantage in the match. Will he be able to capitalize on it? I sure hope so!
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
Heavy betting on Med continues, now 60% of all wagers.
Chanwan
G.O.A.T.
Where did you pick up this data? How many matches did each play in 80+? Which ones? The sample is pretty small, so if Djoko played say 3 matches in 80+ and those were in the last week as a slam, whereas Medv. played 3-4 matches in the first week, then that pretty much nullifies the data. In other words: More context please
Exactly
Edit: You answered this already, sorry
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GabeT
G.O.A.T.
From what I’m reading Novak is a 70% favorite
Chanwan
G.O.A.T.
Med's 2-7 in best of five - vs. Djoko's 35-10 or 23-5 since the start of 2011
Chanwan
G.O.A.T.
That 60 % of the money is put on Medvedev doesn't mean Vegas and the market sees Med as the favorite. It merely means that they see Medvedev as less of an underdog than the initial odds have suggested he is. @travlerajm
That's an interesting point I didn't know
Thats just because the odds for Med a realy great value (3.25). 60% is actualy not that much actually so nothing to see here.
Chanwan
G.O.A.T.
OP/ @travlerajm
If we are to put any stock in your theory, then
1) it means that Medv. has the advantage early on and
2) that Djoko will have the weather advantage later in the match, when the temperature drops to 26 (79) at 7, 25 (77) at 8 and 24 (75) at 9.
Finally, I think there's a massive difference between playing in the sun and in the shadow. As far as I gather, the entire match will be played in the shadow. I.e. 80+ doesn't feel as hot as it does in say, Australia, Tokyo and so on because of the respective stadiums.
Your theory gives me a tiny bit of hope for Medvedev, but I still can't see him beat Djokovic tonight
If we are to put any stock in your theory, then
1) it means that Medv. has the advantage early on and
2) that Djoko will have the weather advantage later in the match, when the temperature drops to 26 (79) at 7, 25 (77) at 8 and 24 (75) at 9.
Finally, I think there's a massive difference between playing in the sun and in the shadow. As far as I gather, the entire match will be played in the shadow. I.e. 80+ doesn't feel as hot as it does in say, Australia, Tokyo and so on because of the respective stadiums.
Your theory gives me a tiny bit of hope for Medvedev, but I still can't see him beat Djokovic tonight
S
Slicehand
Guest
OP you cannot be serious!
weakera
Talk Tennis Guru
This is because tournament metrics to date point to Medvedev being in significantly stronger form. But most people don't consider that a factor and expect Djokovic to come out guns blazing.
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
Happy to provide some details:
Djok matches over 80F:
AO 20 4th
AO 20 semi
US 20 1st
US 20 2nd
US 20 3rd
US 20 4th
AO 21 Qtr
US 21 1st
US 21 3rd
US 21 4th
US 21 Qtr
Djok:
1st x 2
2nd x 1
3rd x 2
4th x 3
Qtr x 2
Semi x 1
Final x zero
Medvedev matches over 80F:
AO 20 2nd
AO 20 3rd
US 20 1st
US 20 2nd
US 20 3rd
US 20 4th
US 20 Qtr
AO 21 2nd
AO 21 Qtr
AO 21 Semi
US 21 1st
US 21 Qtr
Med:
1st x 2
2nd x 3
3rd x 2
4th x 1
Qtr x 3
Semi x 1
Final x zero
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
But bookies take that into account in setting odds, and aim for 50/50. 60% is big disparity and gives the bookies a huge liability.
I am saying that the betting pattern changed overnight, and almost everyone is going all in on Med in the last 8h.
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
Now up to 62% of wagers on Med! Still climbing
Tenacity
Hall of Fame
Yeah, that's why even scientists use Celsius in your country. To make science even more harder because why not.
No it doesn't
norcal
Legend
Can you translate that temperature limit to common-sense normal Celsius degrees?
Here you go:
Talk Tennis Europe - English
tt.tennis-warehouse.com
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
Generally 0 is the low end and 100 is the top end.
It's the same simplicity of the metric system you guys always brag about.
Fahrenheit was a very poorly-designed scale. Fahrenheit was created with the intent being "OK, so 0 is the coldest it's ever been around here—about as cold as this brine mixture I made to represent it—and the human body is naturally at 100. OK, based on that scale, water freezes at 32 and boils at 212, interesting... that'll probably be easier to replicate than human body temperature." It turned out his brine wasn't fully mixed and would stabilize at -3°, so eventually they had to recalibrate this based on water's freezing point instead. It reeks of bad craft, but he was the guy who invented the mercury thermometer, so that's why it caught on.
Celsius, on the other hand, was created with the intent being "0° is freezing, 100° is boiling, and both of these measurements are at one atmosphere of pressure." Fahrenheit never had that last part until it got a specific definition in relation to Celsius. It's a much better-designed standard that was much easier to accurately replicate.
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
Measuring things on a scientific scale like for freezing point or boiling point makes more sense in celsius.
Measuring daily outdoor air temperature in Fahrenheit makes so much more sense it shouldn't even be debatable. It's roughly a 0 to 100 scale.
Lleytonstation
Talk Tennis Guru
If he dies tonight, blood is on your hands
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
HEAVY betting on Med this morning continues:
Now up to 63% of all wagers on Medvedev!
Now up to 63% of all wagers on Medvedev!
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
65% and climbing!
Born_to_slice
Legend
Yep Medvedev is as fresh as a daisy. Good luck Novak.
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