Medvedev's Play for #1

TripleATeam

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
So since points have once again begun dropping, we're going to see volatility in the rankings we haven't seen in a while. Djokovic is less than 2300 points in the lead right now.

Medvedev is defending max points at Cincinnati, Shanghai, Paris, ATP Finals, and finals at both Canada and the USO. It's unlikely Medvedev can improve his performance there, so he'll be gunning for the #1 position before Canada.

The coming events from now to then: Dubai/Acapulco, Miami, Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, RG, Halle/Queens, Wimbledon, Hamburg, Olympics, Washington.

Djokovic is defending Dubai - 500, Miami - 90, MC - 180, Madrid - 1000, Rome - 1000, RG - 720, Wimbledon - 2000. Total: 5590
Medvedev is defending Miami - 90, MC - 360, Barcelona - 300, Madrid - 10, Rome - 10, RG - 10, Wimbledon - 90. Total: 870

Given their schedules, neither is playing Dubai. That makes Djokovic's lead <2050.
Forget about Miami for now.

Djokovic's schedule is MC and Belgrade after that, implying no Barcelona, and more than likely one of Madrid or Rome, not both. Let's say Djokovic wins Rome, losing Monte Carlo in the semi, and wins Serbia. In total, he will come out with 1000+500+360+250 = 2110 points, losing 70 points from before, making his lead <1950.

Now assume Medvedev gets the the QF of everything from MC-Wimbledon. It's optimistic given his previous years, but it's not ridiculous - the man's the world #2, so a QF isn't unexpected. That will give him 1510 points, roughly 400 points from #1.

That doesn't include Miami. If Medvedev wins Miami, that will give him another 400-1000 points to chip away from Djokovic's lead. If Medvedev wins Miami, becoming world #1 is a very real possibility. Even if Djokovic wins Miami and Medvedev loses before the final (+640 for Djokovic), that doesn't entirely stop Medvedev from being a threat. This will be very interesting to see play out in Miami and Monte Carlo.

Obviously the numbers here are very hand-wavy, since there's so many permutations of results right now, but the numbers I laid out are somewhat optimistic for Djokovic and somewhat middle-of-the-road for Medvedev. He can perform better or worse, but it's impossible to tell just yet.

EDIT: Forgot that only half points are being dropped. Adjusted to account for this.
 
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Omega_7000 said:
Medvedev becoming # 1 without winning a major will not be good for the sport...It'll start to look a lot like WTA where the # 1 ranking is for namesake with the big 2 winning all the majors.
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So the ATP will have finally descended to the level of the WTA except it will have 2-3 Serena equivalents instead of 1 and they're all better than Serena (or two out of three of them will be in terms of being a threat for Slams - Ralph and Joe).


Intriguing.

But where is the ATP's Naomi Osaka, the best player in the world man or woman who does the ATP a favour by not playing on their tour?
 
TripleATeam said:
The coming events from now to then: Dubai/Acapulco, Miami, Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, RG, Halle/Queens, Wimbledon, Hamburg, Olympics, Washington.

Djokovic is defending Dubai - 500, Miami - 90, MC - 180, Madrid - 1000, Rome - 1000, RG - 720, Wimbledon - 2000. Total: 5590
Medvedev is defending Miami - 90, MC - 360, Barcelona - 300, Madrid - 10, Rome - 10, RG - 10, Wimbledon - 90. Total: 870

Given their schedules, neither is playing Dubai. That makes Djokovic's lead <2050.
Forget about Miami for now.

Djokovic's schedule is MC and Belgrade after that, implying no Barcelona, and more than likely one of Madrid or Rome, not both. Let's say Djokovic wins Rome, losing Monte Carlo in the semi, and wins Serbia. In total, he will come out with 1000+500+360+250 = 2110 points, losing 70 points from before, making his lead <1950.

Now assume Medvedev gets the the QF of everything from MC-Wimbledon. It's optimistic given his previous years, but it's not ridiculous - the man's the world #2, so a QF isn't unexpected. That will give him 1510 points, roughly 400 points from #1.

That doesn't include Miami. If Medvedev wins Miami, that will give him another 400-1000 points to chip away from Djokovic's lead. If Medvedev wins Miami, becoming world #1 is a very real possibility. Even if Djokovic wins Miami and Medvedev loses before the final (+640 for Djokovic), that doesn't entirely stop Medvedev from being a threat. This will be very interesting to see play out in Miami and Monte Carlo.

Obviously the numbers here are very hand-wavy, since there's so many permutations of results right now, but the numbers I laid out are somewhat optimistic for Djokovic and somewhat middle-of-the-road for Medvedev. He can perform better or worse, but it's impossible to tell just yet.

EDIT: Forgot that only half points are being dropped. Adjusted to account for this.
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Turns out I was wrong about Dubai dropping (before March 8th), and Djokovic has only dropped 135 (/2 = 67) from IW/Miami, bringing him down from 12030 to 11963.

Medvedev, on the other hand, improved his previous Miami run and got 180 points for a Masters QF, bringing him to 10030 before MC.

Djokovic is defending MC - 180, Madrid - 1000, Rome - 1000, RG - 1200, Wimbledon - 2000. Total: 5380 (/2 = 2690)
Medvedev is defending MC - 360, Barcelona - 300, Madrid - 10, Rome - 10, RG - 10, Wimbledon - 90. Total: 780 (/2 = 390)

BEST CASE FOR MED:
For Djokovic, a conservative estimate places him in the MC SF, Belgrade F, and Rome QF. Rome/Madrid drops 500 points each, MC gains 180, and Belgrade nets 150. By RG start, Djokovic loses 670 points, putting him at 11293.

In this same situation, a strong showing from Medvedev would be MC F, Madrid SF, Rome SF - netting 1315 points, but losing 150 from Barcelona and putting him at 11185. With that kind of showing, Medvedev likely takes #1 at RG or Wimbledon.

AVERAGE CASE:
Djokovic is likely to reach at least 1 of those 2 finals (MC?), probably the quarterfinal in the other (Rome?), and he'll probably win Belgrade. That gives him +420 +250 -1000 = -330 points, putting him at 11633. Med would likely (let's still be optimistic) get a R16 in MC, SF in Madrid, QF in Rome, drops half in Barcelona. Gives him +190 points, putting him at 10220.

Let's say in RG Djokovic only makes the QF, losing 600 points (11033). Medvedev would need 814 points to get #1 between RG and Wimbledon, which means a semi and a quarter, or a final. It's not impossible and it's not incredibly unlikely given as we don't know how he'll be performing on clay/grass (we only have 2019 results for that).

It's looking like if Medvedev can scrounge up some good form, he'll have a shot. If Medvedev wins one of the clay warmups (not to mention a slam), he'll be #1 almost surely. Assume the final is Medvedev d. Djokovic in say Rome or Madrid, this gives Djokovic +100 points and Medvedev gets +990. The gap decreases from 1933 points to 1043 points. When you add in the amount that each stands to drop outside of that, the effective gap becomes 767 points in Medvedev's favor (without the hypothetical master's win, it's still 367 points in his favor).

There's a way there for Medvedev, but it depends on if he can make something happen on natural surfaces. He'll never see an opportunity like this again.
 
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TripleATeam said:
Turns out I was wrong about Dubai dropping for some reason, and Djokovic has only dropped 135 (/2 = 67) from IW/Miami, bringing him down from 12030 to 11963.

Medvedev, on the other hand, improved his previous Miami run and got 180 points for a Masters QF, bringing him to 10030 before MC. From what I can tell, it looks like MC won't be dropping half points like I expected, nor will Madrid or Wimbledon (Djokovic Rankings Breakdown - it looks like his MC, Madrid, and Wim are already dropping in 2022, even at full value?)

Djokovic is defending MC - 180, Madrid - 1000, Rome - 1000, RG - 1200, Wimbledon - 2000. Total: 5380 (/2 = 2690 OR possibly just 1100)
Medvedev is defending MC - 360, Barcelona - 300, Madrid - 10, Rome - 10, RG - 10, Wimbledon - 90. Total: 780 (/2 = 390 OR possibly just 10)

BEST CASE FOR MED:
Assuming the drop dates really do reflect that these tournaments will not be dropping (I'm not sure), this has drastic effects. The 1000 from Madrid for Djokovic will be maintained even though he's playing MC, Belgrade, and Rome. A conservative estimate places him in the MC SF, Belgrade F, and Rome QF. Rome drops 500 points, MC gains 180, and Belgrade nets 150. By RG start, Djokovic (conservatively) loses only 180 points, putting him at 11783.

In this same situation, a strong showing from Medvedev would be MC F, Madrid SF, Rome SF - netting 1315 points and putting him at 11335. That means if Djokovic doesn't reach the RG final, Medvedev could take #1 without even showing up. With a Djokovic final, Med would need a semi. Of course, even if Med would fail to take #1 here, he could do it at Wimbledon.

AVERAGE CASE:
Assuming that is how points will be dropping, Djokovic is likely to reach at least 1 of those 2 finals (MC?), probably the quarterfinal in the other (Rome?), and he'll probably win Belgrade. That gives him +420 +250 -500 = +170 points, putting him at 12133. Med would likely (let's still be optimistic) get a R16 in MC, SF in Madrid, QF in Rome. Gives him +340 points, putting him at 10370.

Let's say in RG Djokovic only makes the QF, losing 600 points (11533). Medvedev would need 1264 points to get #1 between RG and Wimbledon, which means either two semis, a final + R2 win, or a win. I don't think that's incredibly likely in Medvedev's case, but it is possible, especially if Djokovic underperforms in the clay warmups, we could see it.

Speaking in terms of likelihood (if my assumption about dropping is correct), unless Djokovic severely underperforms, Medvedev overperforms, or Medvedev somehow becomes a consistent clay/grass player (semifinal average), Medvedev isn't getting #1. It's possible, but not incredibly likely, especially with how Miami turned out.
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Is there a reason for them not to drop points for MC and etc?
 
Milanez82 said:
Is there a reason for them not to drop points for MC and etc?
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I have no clue, I'm just extrapolating what I saw from Dubai. Djokovic won Dubai on February 24th 2020, and the drop date for that (dropping 50% points) would have been over a month ago. But he didn't drop them - and on the website the drop date is in 2022. The other tournaments with drop dates in 2022 are IW, Miami (already halved), MC, Madrid, Wimbledon (not halved - like Dubai). So I really have no idea what that's about, I'd expect them to be dropped at 50%.
 
TripleATeam said:
I have no clue, I'm just extrapolating what I saw from Dubai. Djokovic won Dubai on February 24th 2020, and the drop date for that (dropping 50% points) would have been over a month ago. But he didn't drop them - and on the website the drop date is in 2022. The other tournaments with drop dates in 2022 are IW, Miami (already halved), MC, Madrid, Wimbledon (not halved - like Dubai). So I really have no idea what that's about, I'd expect them to be dropped at 50%.
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Till March 8th players keep 100% and after March 8th 50% of points previously earned. Simple as that. Originally the rankings were protected till March 8th, but after AO, ATP decided to extended it even further, although with only 50% of points protected.
 
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TripleATeam said:
I have no clue, I'm just extrapolating what I saw from Dubai. Djokovic won Dubai on February 24th 2020, and the drop date for that (dropping 50% points) would have been over a month ago. But he didn't drop them - and on the website the drop date is in 2022. The other tournaments with drop dates in 2022 are IW, Miami (already halved), MC, Madrid, Wimbledon (not halved - like Dubai). So I really have no idea what that's about, I'd expect them to be dropped at 50%.
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Djokovic's Dubai points will stay (at 100%) until 2022

His points from other Miami until Wimbledon will stay at 50% until 2022 as well -- the upcoming ones are still at 100% but will "drop" to 50% once the tournaments take place

Ogi44 said:
Till March 8th players keep 100% and after March 8th 50% of points previously earned. Simple as that. Originally the rankings were protected till March 8th, but after AO, ATP decided to extended it even further, although with only 50% of points protected.
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Pretty much this

More details here:
www.atptour.com

FedEx ATP Rankings Adjustments FAQ | ATP Tour | Tennis

www.atptour.com www.atptour.com
 
Ogi44 said:
Till March 8th players keep 100% and after March 8th 50% of points previously earned. Simple as that. Originally the rankings were protected till March 8th, but after AO, ATP decided to extended it even further, although with only 50% of points protected.
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jm1980 said:
Djokovic's Dubai points will stay (at 100%) until 2022

His points from other Miami until Wimbledon will stay at 50% until 2022 as well -- the upcoming ones are still at 100% but will "drop" to 50% once the tournaments take place


Pretty much this

More details here:
www.atptour.com

FedEx ATP Rankings Adjustments FAQ | ATP Tour | Tennis

www.atptour.com www.atptour.com
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Ah, thanks! I totally missed the part where they keep 100% before Match 8th. Will edit to fix that wrong info on my part!
 
TripleATeam said:
Turns out I was wrong about Dubai dropping (before March 8th), and Djokovic has only dropped 135 (/2 = 67) from IW/Miami, bringing him down from 12030 to 11963.

Medvedev, on the other hand, improved his previous Miami run and got 180 points for a Masters QF, bringing him to 10030 before MC.

Djokovic is defending MC - 180, Madrid - 1000, Rome - 1000, RG - 1200, Wimbledon - 2000. Total: 5380 (/2 = 2690)
Medvedev is defending MC - 360, Barcelona - 300, Madrid - 10, Rome - 10, RG - 10, Wimbledon - 90. Total: 780 (/2 = 390)

BEST CASE FOR MED:
For Djokovic, a conservative estimate places him in the MC SF, Belgrade F, and Rome QF. Rome/Madrid drops 500 points each, MC gains 180, and Belgrade nets 150. By RG start, Djokovic loses 670 points, putting him at 11293.

In this same situation, a strong showing from Medvedev would be MC F, Madrid SF, Rome SF - netting 1315 points, but losing 150 from Barcelona and putting him at 11185. With that kind of showing, Medvedev likely takes #1 at RG or Wimbledon.

AVERAGE CASE:
Djokovic is likely to reach at least 1 of those 2 finals (MC?), probably the quarterfinal in the other (Rome?), and he'll probably win Belgrade. That gives him +420 +250 -1000 = -330 points, putting him at 11633. Med would likely (let's still be optimistic) get a R16 in MC, SF in Madrid, QF in Rome, drops half in Barcelona. Gives him +190 points, putting him at 10220.

Let's say in RG Djokovic only makes the QF, losing 600 points (11033). Medvedev would need 814 points to get #1 between RG and Wimbledon, which means a semi and a quarter, or a final. It's not impossible and it's not incredibly unlikely given as we don't know how he'll be performing on clay/grass (we only have 2019 results for that).

It's looking like if Medvedev can scrounge up some good form, he'll have a shot. If Medvedev wins one of the clay warmups (not to mention a slam), he'll be #1 almost surely. Assume the final is Medvedev d. Djokovic in say Rome or Madrid, this gives Djokovic +100 points and Medvedev gets +990. The gap decreases from 1933 points to 1043 points. When you add in the amount that each stands to drop outside of that, the effective gap becomes 767 points in Medvedev's favor (without the hypothetical master's win, it's still 367 points in his favor).

There's a way there for Medvedev, but it depends on if he can make something happen on natural surfaces. He'll never see an opportunity like this again.
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MC won't be done for a week, so a quick pulse check. Let's say Djokovic gets a SF, so MC's impact is +270 for Djokovic, -180 for Medvedev. The gap widens to 11963 + 270 - 9850 = 2383.

Djokovic will still be dropping 2600 points, and Medvedev will drop 210. That makes the difference -7, meaning 7 points in Medvedev's favor. The way to interpret that is "Djokovic needs to outperform his points by 7 points more than Medvedev does if he wants to remain #1 after Wimbledon." MC will be fairly important, so a final here could provide Djokovic with some breathing room. It's still tough to say given we haven't seen Med's form on clay, and this positive result could negatively impact his other tournaments.

It's possible that (following 14 day quarantine guidelines) Medvedev will be unable to play Barcelona. That cuts into his potential maximum he can gain during the clay season. I did, however, forget to mention the grass 250s and 500s being played, so it's possible Medvedev has more sources of points than I was expecting. This increases his chances quite a bit, as a deep run in just one can lead to a significant gain in points for him.
 
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TripleATeam said:
MC won't be done for a week, so a quick pulse check. Let's say Djokovic gets a SF, so MC's impact is +180 for Djokovic, -180 for Medvedev. The gap widens to 11963 + 180 - 9850 = 2293.

Djokovic will still be dropping 2600 points, and Medvedev will drop 210. That makes the difference -97, meaning 97 points in Medvedev's favor. The way to interpret that is "Djokovic needs to outperform his points by 97 points more than Medvedev does if he wants to remain #1 after Wimbledon." MC will be fairly important, so a final here could provide Djokovic with some breathing room. It's still tough to say given we haven't seen Med's form on clay, and this positive result could negatively impact his other tournaments.

It's possible that (following 14 day quarantine guidelines) Medvedev will be unable to play Barcelona. That cuts into his potential maximum he can gain during the clay season. I did, however, forget to mention the grass 250s and 500s being played, so it's possible Medvedev has more sources of points than I was expecting. This increases his chances quite a bit, as a deep run in just one can lead to a significant gain in points for him.
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Nice job, I remember us discussing same calculations you did for Nadal and Djokovic in the Fall of 2019. Yet I think clay season won’t play a huge role in Medvedev vs Djokovic rankings clash. If Medvedev wins Wimbledon, he is #1. If Medvedev doesn’t win Wimbledon, 99% that he won’t cross the line. If Nadal wins Wimbledon he’ll also be #1 most likey.
 
TripleATeam said:
MC won't be done for a week, so a quick pulse check. Let's say Djokovic gets a SF, so MC's impact is +180 for Djokovic, -180 for Medvedev. The gap widens to 11963 + 180 - 9850 = 2293.

Djokovic will still be dropping 2600 points, and Medvedev will drop 210. That makes the difference -97, meaning 97 points in Medvedev's favor. The way to interpret that is "Djokovic needs to outperform his points by 97 points more than Medvedev does if he wants to remain #1 after Wimbledon." MC will be fairly important, so a final here could provide Djokovic with some breathing room. It's still tough to say given we haven't seen Med's form on clay, and this positive result could negatively impact his other tournaments.

It's possible that (following 14 day quarantine guidelines) Medvedev will be unable to play Barcelona. That cuts into his potential maximum he can gain during the clay season. I did, however, forget to mention the grass 250s and 500s being played, so it's possible Medvedev has more sources of points than I was expecting. This increases his chances quite a bit, as a deep run in just one can lead to a significant gain in points for him.
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With Barcelona starting on Monday, Med will miss it. Depending if he is able to train next 2 weeks(think he has a court at his home?), we won't be seeing him before Madrid. With RG delay, if he is out 1st round he can still enter Stuttgart 250 which will prolly hold its date.
Djokovic beside MC(where final is more reasonable expectation) can gain another 250 in Belgrade.
Basically Djokovic run at MC will determine how long his no1 is secure.
And we know he has a good shot at defending Rome masters.
 
TripleATeam said:
MC won't be done for a week, so a quick pulse check. Let's say Djokovic gets a SF, so MC's impact is +180 for Djokovic, -180 for Medvedev. The gap widens to 11963 + 180 - 9850 = 2293.

Djokovic will still be dropping 2600 points, and Medvedev will drop 210. That makes the difference -97, meaning 97 points in Medvedev's favor. The way to interpret that is "Djokovic needs to outperform his points by 97 points more than Medvedev does if he wants to remain #1 after Wimbledon." MC will be fairly important, so a final here could provide Djokovic with some breathing room. It's still tough to say given we haven't seen Med's form on clay, and this positive result could negatively impact his other tournaments.

It's possible that (following 14 day quarantine guidelines) Medvedev will be unable to play Barcelona. That cuts into his potential maximum he can gain during the clay season. I did, however, forget to mention the grass 250s and 500s being played, so it's possible Medvedev has more sources of points than I was expecting. This increases his chances quite a bit, as a deep run in just one can lead to a significant gain in points for him.
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Why +180 for SF at MC? Performance in 2019 counts or it didn't reset cause it was cancelled last year?
 
RF-18 said:
Why +180 for SF at MC? Performance in 2019 counts or it didn't reset cause it was cancelled last year?
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Ah, I made a misstep. +270, since when I calculated the difference between Djokovic and Medvedev after Wimbledon, that's under the assumption that Djokovic retains retains 50% of his 2019 points at MC and Medvedev retains 50% of his semifinal there, meaning if Djokovic outperforms that, he only increases the gap by +360 - 90, or 270.

Thanks for catching that error, though - 180 was wrong.
 
Yugram said:
Nice job, I remember us discussing same calculations you did for Nadal and Djokovic in the Fall of 2019. Yet I think clay season won’t play a huge role in Medvedev vs Djokovic rankings clash. If Medvedev wins Wimbledon, he is #1. If Medvedev doesn’t win Wimbledon, 99% that he won’t cross the line. If Nadal wins Wimbledon he’ll also be #1 most likey.
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Yeah, I agree that if Medvedev wins Wimbledon it's moot, but I also think that a couple of decent performances from him elsewhere gives him a fantastic shot.

For instance, say he's out of all remaining clay tourneys except RG. Let's also say Djokovic gains 250 points in Belgrade, 0 in Madrid, 100 in Rome, and 600 in RG (final), and wins Wimbledon. That's very optimistic, and gives him less than 1000 points of gap to Medvedev before Canada.

Now let's say Medvedev gets to the RG quarter (+350), Stuttgart final (+150), Halle semi (+180), Wimbledon QF (+350), and Washington win (+500). That gives him well over 1.4k points. Hell, he could skip RG and do those others and still get #1 even with that quite optimistic run for Djokovic.

(Aw dang, just checked my 2019 #1 thread and that was so much better made than this one... I should be ashamed...)
 
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TripleATeam said:
MC won't be done for a week, so a quick pulse check. Let's say Djokovic gets a SF, so MC's impact is +270 for Djokovic, -180 for Medvedev. The gap widens to 11963 + 270 - 9850 = 2383.

Djokovic will still be dropping 2600 points, and Medvedev will drop 210. That makes the difference -7, meaning 7 points in Medvedev's favor. The way to interpret that is "Djokovic needs to outperform his points by 7 points more than Medvedev does if he wants to remain #1 after Wimbledon." MC will be fairly important, so a final here could provide Djokovic with some breathing room. It's still tough to say given we haven't seen Med's form on clay, and this positive result could negatively impact his other tournaments.

It's possible that (following 14 day quarantine guidelines) Medvedev will be unable to play Barcelona. That cuts into his potential maximum he can gain during the clay season. I did, however, forget to mention the grass 250s and 500s being played, so it's possible Medvedev has more sources of points than I was expecting. This increases his chances quite a bit, as a deep run in just one can lead to a significant gain in points for him.
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After MC, we have 11873 - 9850 = 2023.

Djokovic is dropping 2600, Medvedev 210. If neither player outperforms their points from previous years, Medvedev will become #1 after Wimbledon. Djokovic's chances of outperforming his Madrid and Rome are very slim, given he'd need either a win or a final to do it. Medvedev can do it with just a single win at either venue.

With this it's clear - Medvedev is in pole position to become #1 at some point during the next 4 months.

Let's assume Djokovic plays everything M1000 level and up, plus Belgrade, and wins every match there (unlikely) except RG final (Nadal). That's no gain in points from Rome/Madrid, +250 from Belgrade, +0 from RG, +0 from Wimbledon. That means at most, Djokovic can end Wimbledon with 12213 points (assuming he doesn't play Stuttgart or Halle/Queens).

Now for Medvedev we assume he can't play Barcelona, but can play everything else he's signed up for. Madrid, Rome, RG, grass warmups, Wimbledon, Washington. Medvedev has 9850 points. To assure himself a #1, Medvedev probably needs at least 2363 points, but realistically speaking that will probably be less from Djokovic not winning Wimbledon and Rome/Madrid on top of that. But let's talk about 2363 points for now. Medvedev can get Madrid/Rome SFs, an RG QF, win Stuttgart, Halle F, Wimbledon QF, and Washington W, and then he gains 2490 points.

That path isn't impossible. It's difficult, but that's the upper bound of what Medvedev needs to achieve to get #1. Now let's assume Djokovic has a more realistic path in his future: Madrid SF, Rome F, RG SF, Wimbledon W - he'll end Wimbledon with 10743 points. Medvedev currently has 9850. To beat Djokovic (who still performs very well there), Medvedev needs just 894 points.

Medvedev could win 920 by doing: Madrid withdrawal, Rome QF, RG R16, Stuttgart withdrawal, Halle SF, Wimbledon R16, Washington W.
* Note that if he fails to get RG R16, he can still aim for Stuttgart and win there (at least a SF) with a weaker field.

Honestly, as long as Medvedev is fit to play by RG, he should be in a very good position to gain #1 if he chooses to play everything he's signed up for.
 
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TripleATeam said:
After MC, we have 11873 - 9850 = 2023.

Djokovic is dropping 2600, Medvedev 210. If neither player outperforms their points from previous years, Medvedev will become #1 after Wimbledon. Djokovic's chances of outperforming his Madrid and Rome are very slim, given he'd need either a win or a final to do it. Medvedev can do it with just a single win at either venue.

With this it's clear - Medvedev is in pole position to become #1 at some point during the next 4 months.

Let's assume Djokovic plays everything M1000 level and up, plus Belgrade, and wins every match there (unlikely) except RG final (Nadal). That's no gain in points from Rome/Madrid, +250 from Belgrade, +0 from RG, +0 from Wimbledon. That means at most, Djokovic can end Wimbledon with 12213 points (assuming he doesn't play Stuttgart or Halle/Queens).

Now for Medvedev we assume he can't play Barcelona, but can play everything else he's signed up for. Madrid, Rome, RG, grass warmups, Wimbledon, Washington. Medvedev has 9850 points. To assure himself a #1, Medvedev probably needs at least 2363 points, but realistically speaking that will probably be less from Djokovic not winning Wimbledon and Rome/Madrid on top of that. But let's talk about 2363 points for now. Medvedev can get Madrid/Rome SFs, an RG QF, win Stuttgart, Halle F, Wimbledon QF, and Washington W, and then he gains 2490 points.

That path isn't impossible. It's difficult, but that's the upper bound of what Medvedev needs to achieve to get #1. Now let's assume Djokovic has a more realistic path in his future: Madrid SF, Rome F, RG SF, Wimbledon W - he'll end Wimbledon with 10633 points. Medvedev currently has 9850. To beat Djokovic (who still performs very well there), Medvedev needs just 813 points.

Medvedev could win 815 by doing: Madrid withdrawal, Rome R16, RG R16, Stuttgart R32, Halle R16, Wimbledon R16, Washington F.

Honestly, as long as Medvedev is fit to play by RG, he should be in a very good position to gain #1 if he chooses to play everything he's signed up for.
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Wow. Crazy to be honest, gutted he didn't win Miami still that was an easy easy win if not for junk baller
 
Nice work @TripleATeam ! I've not been able to keep up with the COVID rankings – keep forgetting what counts and how much it's weighted, etc. So thanks for throwing all this together. Kind of nuts how close Medvedev is to number one. And here everyone was saying COVID rankings were gonna keep Novak afloat indefinitely, but they could be the reason he drops to number two shortly.
 
TripleATeam said:
After MC, we have 11873 - 9850 = 2023.

Djokovic is dropping 2600, Medvedev 210. If neither player outperforms their points from previous years, Medvedev will become #1 after Wimbledon. Djokovic's chances of outperforming his Madrid and Rome are very slim, given he'd need either a win or a final to do it. Medvedev can do it with just a single win at either venue.

With this it's clear - Medvedev is in pole position to become #1 at some point during the next 4 months.

Let's assume Djokovic plays everything M1000 level and up, plus Belgrade, and wins every match there (unlikely) except RG final (Nadal). That's no gain in points from Rome/Madrid, +250 from Belgrade, +0 from RG, +0 from Wimbledon. That means at most, Djokovic can end Wimbledon with 12213 points (assuming he doesn't play Stuttgart or Halle/Queens).

Now for Medvedev we assume he can't play Barcelona, but can play everything else he's signed up for. Madrid, Rome, RG, grass warmups, Wimbledon, Washington. Medvedev has 9850 points. To assure himself a #1, Medvedev probably needs at least 2363 points, but realistically speaking that will probably be less from Djokovic not winning Wimbledon and Rome/Madrid on top of that. But let's talk about 2363 points for now. Medvedev can get Madrid/Rome SFs, an RG QF, win Stuttgart, Halle F, Wimbledon QF, and Washington W, and then he gains 2490 points.

That path isn't impossible. It's difficult, but that's the upper bound of what Medvedev needs to achieve to get #1. Now let's assume Djokovic has a more realistic path in his future: Madrid SF, Rome F, RG SF, Wimbledon W - he'll end Wimbledon with 10633 points. Medvedev currently has 9850. To beat Djokovic (who still performs very well there), Medvedev needs just 813 points.

Medvedev could win 815 by doing: Madrid withdrawal, Rome R16, RG R16, Stuttgart R32, Halle R16, Wimbledon R16, Washington F.

Honestly, as long as Medvedev is fit to play by RG, he should be in a very good position to gain #1 if he chooses to play everything he's signed up for.
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I'll go just by regular rankings, not the race one.
Madrid SF (350) Rome SF (350) an RG QF (350) win Stuttgart (240) Halle F (120, not sure if he can keep points from Halle AND Queens, would still probably play Queens) Wimbledon QF (120), and Washington W (200) would give him 1860 points. The gap between Novak and him right now is 1933 (2023 after MC and at least 2183 after Belgrade/Barcelona). Novak can lose up to 1600 points on clay and 1000 on grass. Had Daniil won Miami Djokovic would have been screwed, but now has a little room to work with (only gets better for him after grass at least). Wimbledon title defence is the main goal for him and if he managed to do achieve it then Belgrade title and M1000 title (this one is tricky) would most likely be enough, but it's in Medvedev's hands now.

Shouldn't Novak also be at 10493 after Wimbledon in the realistic scenario (11963 -90 MC, -500 MD, -400 R, -480 RG)? Belgrade final would bring it up to 10643. Playing 3 grass tournaments is unlikely given the RG (wouldn't he be too late to get a WC after reaching RG R16?).
 
N01E said:
I'll go just by regular rankings, not the race one.
Madrid SF (350) Rome SF (350) an RG QF (350) win Stuttgart (240) Halle F (120, not sure if he can keep points from Halle AND Queens, would still probably play Queens) Wimbledon QF (120), and Washington W (200) would give him 1860 points. The gap between Novak and him right now is 1933 (2023 after MC and at least 2183 after Belgrade/Barcelona). Novak can lose up to 1600 points on clay and 1000 on grass. Had Daniil won Miami Djokovic would have been screwed, but now has a little room to work with (only gets better for him after grass at least). Wimbledon title defence is the main goal for him and if he managed to do achieve it then Belgrade title and M1000 title (this one is tricky) would most likely be enough, but it's in Medvedev's hands now.

Shouldn't Novak also be at 10493 after Wimbledon in the realistic scenario (11963 -90 MC, -500 MD, -400 R, -480 RG)? Belgrade final would bring it up to 10643. Playing 3 grass tournaments is unlikely given the RG (wouldn't he be too late to get a WC after reaching RG R16?).
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Yeah, 10493 is right. Not sure where 10633 came from. I was assuming Belgrade win, so 10743 was what I was trying to get. Thanks, not sure how I lost 110 points in the fray (I think I was assuming slam finals are 1280, not 1200- plus something else) and definitely forgot to include a couple things. Thanks for the info, the post should be better now. I do think he can keep both Halle/Queens points if I'm not mistaken, though.

At this point I'd definitely agree, Miami would have made this a done deal for Medvedev, and Djokovic is lucky there. He'll be hitting himself over MC if Daniil starts putting together runs of form on clay and grass, and the 2 big questions are 1. Is Medvedev going to play any of the clay warmups? and 2. Will he perform at RG/Wimbledon? It's out of Djokovic's hands (unless he puts together an insane performance).

What's truly baffling to me is the idea that Djokovic gets SF or worse at Rome and Madrid, then wins RG and Wimbledon. He'll hold 3/4 slams and be at 11673 points. If Medvedev can get Madrid QF, Rome QF, RG SF, Wimbledon SF, and Washington W, then Medvedev will be #1 even if Djokovic holds 3/4 slams. Wild.
 
TripleATeam said:
Yeah, 10493 is right. Not sure where 10633 came from. I was assuming Belgrade win, so 10743 was what I was trying to get. Thanks, not sure how I lost 110 points in the fray (I think I was assuming slam finals are 1280, not 1200- plus something else) and definitely forgot to include a couple things. Thanks for the info, the post should be better now. I do think he can keep both Halle/Queens points if I'm not mistaken, though.

At this point I'd definitely agree, Miami would have made this a done deal for Medvedev, and Djokovic is lucky there. He'll be hitting himself over MC if Daniil starts putting together runs of form on clay and grass, and the 2 big questions are 1. Is Medvedev going to play any of the clay warmups? and 2. Will he perform at RG/Wimbledon? It's out of Djokovic's hands (unless he puts together an insane performance).

What's truly baffling to me is the idea that Djokovic gets SF or worse at Rome and Madrid, then wins RG and Wimbledon. He'll hold 3/4 slams and be at 11673 points. If Medvedev can get Madrid QF, Rome QF, RG SF, Wimbledon SF, and Washington W, then Medvedev will be #1 even if Djokovic holds 3/4 slams. Wild.
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The strangest part would be the player with no slams actually being #1 in that scenario instead any of the other guys holding the other slam (though Medvedev will go back to #3 now). Had Nadal won Wimbledon 2011 final he'd been #2 while holding 3 GS titles. In the last scenario Medvedev ends up with 3840 points from slams, which would have "only" 440 less than Novak in 2014, 390 more than Roddick, 100 more than Ferrero in 2003 twice as many as Rios had when he became #1.
 
TripleATeam said:
Turns out I was wrong about Dubai dropping (before March 8th), and Djokovic has only dropped 135 (/2 = 67) from IW/Miami, bringing him down from 12030 to 11963.

Medvedev, on the other hand, improved his previous Miami run and got 180 points for a Masters QF, bringing him to 10030 before MC.

Djokovic is defending MC - 180, Madrid - 1000, Rome - 1000, RG - 1200, Wimbledon - 2000. Total: 5380 (/2 = 2690)
Medvedev is defending MC - 360, Barcelona - 300, Madrid - 10, Rome - 10, RG - 10, Wimbledon - 90. Total: 780 (/2 = 390)

BEST CASE FOR MED:
For Djokovic, a conservative estimate places him in the MC SF, Belgrade F, and Rome QF. Rome/Madrid drops 500 points each, MC gains 180, and Belgrade nets 150. By RG start, Djokovic loses 670 points, putting him at 11293.

In this same situation, a strong showing from Medvedev would be MC F, Madrid SF, Rome SF - netting 1315 points, but losing 150 from Barcelona and putting him at 11185. With that kind of showing, Medvedev likely takes #1 at RG or Wimbledon.

AVERAGE CASE:
Djokovic is likely to reach at least 1 of those 2 finals (MC?), probably the quarterfinal in the other (Rome?), and he'll probably win Belgrade. That gives him +420 +250 -1000 = -330 points, putting him at 11633. Med would likely (let's still be optimistic) get a R16 in MC, SF in Madrid, QF in Rome, drops half in Barcelona. Gives him +190 points, putting him at 10220.

Let's say in RG Djokovic only makes the QF, losing 600 points (11033). Medvedev would need 814 points to get #1 between RG and Wimbledon, which means a semi and a quarter, or a final. It's not impossible and it's not incredibly unlikely given as we don't know how he'll be performing on clay/grass (we only have 2019 results for that).

It's looking like if Medvedev can scrounge up some good form, he'll have a shot. If Medvedev wins one of the clay warmups (not to mention a slam), he'll be #1 almost surely. Assume the final is Medvedev d. Djokovic in say Rome or Madrid, this gives Djokovic +100 points and Medvedev gets +990. The gap decreases from 1933 points to 1043 points. When you add in the amount that each stands to drop outside of that, the effective gap becomes 767 points in Medvedev's favor (without the hypothetical master's win, it's still 367 points in his favor).

There's a way there for Medvedev, but it depends on if he can make something happen on natural surfaces. He'll never see an opportunity like this again.
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It looks so sure Med gonna take away #1 spot despite being slamless Lol. No way Djokovic can retain so many points on clay.
 
mehdimike said:
Is there any chance for Rafa to become #1 before RG?!
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Nadal defends: 360 MC, 360 Madrid, 1000 Rome, 180 Barcelona. Assume he wins all. Gains 1600 points, which puts him at 11270.

11270 is enough to be #1 (if Djokovic wins Rome or Madrid, it becomes impossible), but it assumes a perfect (or near perfect) clay season. To maintain #1, then, he would need to retain his Wimbledon points and do well enough to keep the late HC season from dropping his ranking.

Admittedly possible, especially after RG, where Djokovic needs to win Wimbledon to really hold #1. If he doesn't, that's where Nadal and Medvedev can swoop in to grab it. After Rome, I'll include Nadal if it looks like it'll be close with him as well. It's important to consider all the factors.
 
N01E said:
The strangest part would be the player with no slams actually being #1 in that scenario instead any of the other guys holding the other slam (though Medvedev will go back to #3 now). Had Nadal won Wimbledon 2011 final he'd been #2 while holding 3 GS titles. In the last scenario Medvedev ends up with 3840 points from slams, which would have "only" 440 less than Novak in 2014, 390 more than Roddick, 100 more than Ferrero in 2003 twice as many as Rios had when he became #1.
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Marcelo Rios says hi and sends you his regards, straight from the time when Pistol Pete was keeping his enemies at bay
 
After Madrid (assuming Nadal wins it):

Djokovic: 11463
Medvedev: 9780
Nadal: 10450

Defending in Rome, RG, grass warmups, Wimbledon:
Djokovic: 4200
Medvedev: 290
Nadal: 3720

Nadal cannot gain points until grass season. Assuming he only plays 2 grass tournaments, winning both Halle/Queens and Wimbledon, Nadal gets to 12230 points. That's the best case scenario. Without a 500, but with a Wimbledon win, he gets 11730. This will 100% outdo Djokovic, but Medvedev can still beat this total with good showings in Rome, RG, grass warmups, and Wimbledon. Nadal's not out of contention for #1 either, so Medvedev is in a 3 horse game.

With his poor showing in Madrid, Medvedev is showing that his goal of 1 win on each Madrid, Rome, and RG is not simple. The optimism of him potentially winning or going super deep isn't incredibly founded, it looks like. Let's aim for a Rome SF and RG QF. That's 700 points for him, putting him at 10480. Let's be optimistic on grass and say he wins Queens/Halle and makes the Wimbledon SF. That nets him 950 points and puts him at 11430, then he can improve his Washington final into a win for 11630. That is really high, but let's see what Nadal and Djokovic need to do to come out ahead in this scenario.

Nadal: Rome win, RG win, Wimbledon win. Alternatively: Rome win, RG win, Halle/Queens win, Wimbledon final, Washington SF.
Djokovic: Rome F, RG F, Halle/Queens win, Wimbledon win, Washington QF.

Not easy for either of them, but we'll know more after Rome. Right now I'd say chances for Medvedev to be #1 are slipping. In fact, if Djokovic fails to reach the Rome final and the RG final, Nadal becomes #1 after RG (assuming Nadal wins Madrid, Rome, and RG).
 
Medvedev at this stage (clay) is #1 - round 1 that is.

The only 2 players that will be fighting over #1 this year are Nadl and Djok. EOD
 
Medvedev isn't going deep anywhere realistically, as evidenced by his own expectations
Nadal and Djokovic playing Washington isn't even in any scenario, they aren't desperate for no1, slams and Olympics are the focus

Nadal hasn't played last 3 warm ups for Wimbledon so unless he goes deep on RG, he isn't playing this year either

Djokovic hardly ever plays a grass warm up and is unlikely this year as well
Djokovic might boost his points in Belgrade 2
 
daphne said:
Medvedev at this stage (clay) is #1 - round 1 that is.

The only 2 players that will be fighting over #1 this year are Nadl and Djok. EOD
Click to expand...

That’s just not true. Medvedev is close enough to the both of them where literally #1 could happen anytime in the next six months. I‘m not saying its a guarantee but all he has to do to contend for #1 is continue his good form on the hard courts. The only issue is with all those points he’s defending in the summer hard court season. That could hurt him if he can’t replicate that run but to say he has no chance is just ridiculously premature.
 
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