Medvedev's Play for #1

Tenacity

Hall of Fame
Certainly look great for Djoko now with Nadal and Med early exits?
As it seems it always comes down how he performs, even when he defends a lot of points, as he was/is still the most consistent player. I think if he manages to stay #1 past Wimbledon, he is keeping #1 spot whole season again. Medvedev defends so much after W, and I don't know who has consistency to pursue Djokovic. We'll see how it turns out. I'm hoping for a seventh YE#1 and breaking another record, would be epic. :cool:
 

Texas Tennis Fan

Professional
I agree that Wi is the key. If Djokovic wins that, he will have confidence to do well at other hardcourt tournaments and can get LOTS of points at the USO. And will be at 352 weeks and 7th Year end no. 1.

Nadal is still the biggest threat. Of course, he has to win RG to realistically have a chance.

These discussion with Medvedev taking over number one always looks unreasonable to me since he has done poorly in almost all clay court tournaments. And he is not so good on grass either. If he did gain some points at Rome, RG, and Wi and take over No. 1, it would likely be very brief since he has so many points to defend the rest of the year.
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
I agree that Wi is the key. If Djokovic wins that, he will have confidence to do well at other hardcourt tournaments and can get LOTS of points at the USO. And will be at 352 weeks and 7th Year end no. 1.

Nadal is still the biggest threat. Of course, he has to win RG to realistically have a chance.

These discussion with Medvedev taking over number one always looks unreasonable to me since he has done poorly in almost all clay court tournaments. And he is not so good on grass either. If he did gain some points at Rome, RG, and Wi and take over No. 1, it would likely be very brief since he has so many points to defend the rest of the year.
Oh yeah, the point of the thread isn't to see if Medvedev will end the year #1, just to see if he'll hit it at all.
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
After Madrid (assuming Nadal wins it):

Djokovic: 11463
Medvedev: 9780
Nadal: 10450

Defending in Rome, RG, grass warmups, Wimbledon:
Djokovic: 4200
Medvedev: 290
Nadal: 3720

Nadal cannot gain points until grass season. Assuming he only plays 2 grass tournaments, winning both Halle/Queens and Wimbledon, Nadal gets to 12230 points. That's the best case scenario. Without a 500, but with a Wimbledon win, he gets 11730. This will 100% outdo Djokovic, but Medvedev can still beat this total with good showings in Rome, RG, grass warmups, and Wimbledon. Nadal's not out of contention for #1 either, so Medvedev is in a 3 horse game.

With his poor showing in Madrid, Medvedev is showing that his goal of 1 win on each Madrid, Rome, and RG is not simple. The optimism of him potentially winning or going super deep isn't incredibly founded, it looks like. Let's aim for a Rome SF and RG QF. That's 700 points for him, putting him at 10480. Let's be optimistic on grass and say he wins Queens/Halle and makes the Wimbledon SF. That nets him 950 points and puts him at 11430, then he can improve his Washington final into a win for 11630. That is really high, but let's see what Nadal and Djokovic need to do to come out ahead in this scenario.

Nadal: Rome win, RG win, Wimbledon win. Alternatively: Rome win, RG win, Halle/Queens win, Wimbledon final, Washington SF.
Djokovic: Rome F, RG F, Halle/Queens win, Wimbledon win, Washington QF.

Not easy for either of them, but we'll know more after Rome. Right now I'd say chances for Medvedev to be #1 are slipping. In fact, if Djokovic fails to reach the Rome final and the RG final, Nadal becomes #1 after RG (assuming Nadal wins Madrid, Rome, and RG).
Adjust for Nadal losing Madrid:
Djokovic: 11463
Medvedev: 9780
Nadal: 9630

Defending in Rome, RG, grass warmups, Wimbledon:
Djokovic: 4200
Medvedev: 290
Nadal: 3720

Nadal cannot gain points until grass season. Assuming he only plays 2 grass tournaments, winning both Halle/Queens and Wimbledon, Nadal gets to 11410 points. That's the best case scenario. Without a 500, but with a Wimbledon win, he gets 10910. Both Djokovic and Medvedev can still beat this total with good showings in Rome, RG, grass warmups, and Wimbledon. Nadal's not out of contention for #1 either, so Medvedev is in a 3 horse game.

With his poor showing in Madrid, Medvedev is showing that his goal of 1 win on each Madrid, Rome, and RG is not simple. The optimism of him potentially winning or going super deep isn't incredibly founded, it looks like. Let's aim for a Rome SF and RG QF. That's 700 points for him, putting him at 10480. Let's be optimistic on grass and say he wins Queens/Halle and makes the Wimbledon SF. That nets him 950 points and puts him at 11430, then he can improve his Washington final into a win for 11630. That is really high, but let's see what Nadal and Djokovic need to do to come out ahead in this scenario.

Nadal: Rome win, RG win, Halle/Queens win, Wimbledon win, Washington F.
Djokovic: Rome F, RG F, Halle/Queens win, Wimbledon win, Washington QF.

Not easy for either of them, but we'll know more after Rome. Right now I'd say chances for Medvedev to be #1 are slipping. However, it does not look like Rafa can take #1 before Wimbledon, and even after he'd either need to win Wimbledon or he'd need to get to the final and play a grass warmup.

I'd say the chances for Nadal to take #1 before Cincinnati stand at 3%, Medvedev's chances are 15%, and Djokovic has maybe 83%. Medvedev just needs a couple solid runs to be in contention, but he's not shown that he has what it takes to make those runs.
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Adjust for Nadal losing Madrid:
Djokovic: 11463
Medvedev: 9780
Nadal: 9630

Defending in Rome, RG, grass warmups, Wimbledon:
Djokovic: 4200
Medvedev: 290
Nadal: 3720

Nadal cannot gain points until grass season. Assuming he only plays 2 grass tournaments, winning both Halle/Queens and Wimbledon, Nadal gets to 11410 points. That's the best case scenario. Without a 500, but with a Wimbledon win, he gets 10910. Both Djokovic and Medvedev can still beat this total with good showings in Rome, RG, grass warmups, and Wimbledon. Nadal's not out of contention for #1 either, so Medvedev is in a 3 horse game.

With his poor showing in Madrid, Medvedev is showing that his goal of 1 win on each Madrid, Rome, and RG is not simple. The optimism of him potentially winning or going super deep isn't incredibly founded, it looks like. Let's aim for a Rome SF and RG QF. That's 700 points for him, putting him at 10480. Let's be optimistic on grass and say he wins Queens/Halle and makes the Wimbledon SF. That nets him 950 points and puts him at 11430, then he can improve his Washington final into a win for 11630. That is really high, but let's see what Nadal and Djokovic need to do to come out ahead in this scenario.

Nadal: Rome win, RG win, Halle/Queens win, Wimbledon win, Washington F.
Djokovic: Rome F, RG F, Halle/Queens win, Wimbledon win, Washington QF.

Not easy for either of them, but we'll know more after Rome. Right now I'd say chances for Medvedev to be #1 are slipping. However, it does not look like Rafa can take #1 before Wimbledon, and even after he'd either need to win Wimbledon or he'd need to get to the final and play a grass warmup.

I'd say the chances for Nadal to take #1 before Cincinnati stand at 3%, Medvedev's chances are 15%, and Djokovic has maybe 83%. Medvedev just needs a couple solid runs to be in contention, but he's not shown that he has what it takes to make those runs.
Now that Rome has played out to completion, we know more or less where we stand.

After Rome:
Medvedev: 9780
Djokovic: 11063
Nadal: 9630

In terms of optimistic Medvedev predictions, let's again say the RG QF is possible. That gives him 350 points, putting him at 10130. With the same grass optimism (Queens/Halle win, Wimbledon SF), that puts him at 11080, and with a Washington win, that gives him 11280. To get out ahead of that, Djokovic needs a RG final, Wimbledon win, and a Halle/Queens performance. Nadal would still need even more than a Wimbledon win, so that's not incredibly likely, but neither is Medvedev making this run, considering that he's only had 1 win on clay this year.

A more realistic Medvedev prediction would be RG R16 (at best) for 170 points, a Queens/Halle F (also optimistic, but less so), and a Wimbledon QF. That's 170 + 120 + 270 = 560. That brings him up to 10340 points. That's ahead of Nadal if Nadal wins RG and gets to the Wimbledon final (without winning). He'll also be ahead of Djokovic if Djokovic doesn't win either RG or Wimbledon. If he wins either, Djokovic ends up ahead.

For Nadal to be #1, he needs to win Wimbledon and RG. If Nadal can't win both then he's got practically no chance at #1 before Canada. There's an outside chance with the grass 500 and Washington + a Wimbledon final, but it's unlikely Nadal plays so many 500s.

In essence, for Nadal to be #1 in the next few months, he needs to complete the Channel Slam. For Djokovic to stay #1, he needs to win one of the next 2 slams. Otherwise, Medvedev will become #1. And that all rests on Medvedev not doing super well at RG or on grass. If Medvedev can somehow pull together something at either slam, he might get #1 even if Nadal or Djokovic pull off a slam win or two.
 
Now that Rome has played out to completion, we know more or less where we stand.

After Rome:
Medvedev: 9780
Djokovic: 11063
Nadal: 9630

In terms of optimistic Medvedev predictions, let's again say the RG QF is possible. That gives him 350 points, putting him at 10130. With the same grass optimism (Queens/Halle win, Wimbledon SF), that puts him at 11080, and with a Washington win, that gives him 11280. To get out ahead of that, Djokovic needs a RG final, Wimbledon win, and a Halle/Queens performance. Nadal would still need even more than a Wimbledon win, so that's not incredibly likely, but neither is Medvedev making this run, considering that he's only had 1 win on clay this year.

A more realistic Medvedev prediction would be RG R16 (at best) for 170 points, a Queens/Halle F (also optimistic, but less so), and a Wimbledon QF. That's 170 + 120 + 270 = 560. That brings him up to 10340 points. That's ahead of Nadal if Nadal wins RG and gets to the Wimbledon final (without winning). He'll also be ahead of Djokovic if Djokovic doesn't win either RG or Wimbledon. If he wins either, Djokovic ends up ahead.

For Nadal to be #1, he needs to win Wimbledon and RG. If Nadal can't win both then he's got practically no chance at #1 before Canada. There's an outside chance with the grass 500 and Washington + a Wimbledon final, but it's unlikely Nadal plays so many 500s.

In essence, for Nadal to be #1 in the next few months, he needs to complete the Channel Slam. For Djokovic to stay #1, he needs to win one of the next 2 slams. Otherwise, Medvedev will become #1. And that all rests on Medvedev not doing super well at RG or on grass. If Medvedev can somehow pull together something at either slam, he might get #1 even if Nadal or Djokovic pull off a slam win or two.
But post Wimbledon he is defending almost everything.

Canada F, Cincy W, USO F, Shanghai W, Paris W, YEC W

Highly unlikely that he ends YE#1

PS: Just wanted to confirm, these calculations are based on the new 50% point deduction rule right?
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
But post Wimbledon he is defending almost everything.

Canada F, Cincy W, USO F, Shanghai W, Paris W, YEC W

Highly unlikely that he ends YE#1

PS: Just wanted to confirm, these calculations are based on the new 50% point deduction rule right?
Yup! Of course, Medvedev is in no sure position to get year end #1 unless he surprises us at RG and Wimbledon. If he continues playing badly on the natural surfaces, he has no chance. This was intended to just talk about him hitting #1 for even a single week, breaking the #1 monopoly of the Big 4 since Federer's first week.

And yes, these numbers are based entirely around the 50% deduction. If it was 100%, then it'd be much harder to project the point totals that far ahead.
 

Texas Tennis Fan

Professional
Now that Rome has played out to completion, we know more or less where we stand.

After Rome:
Medvedev: 9780
Djokovic: 11063
Nadal: 9630

In terms of optimistic Medvedev predictions, let's again say the RG QF is possible. That gives him 350 points, putting him at 10130. With the same grass optimism (Queens/Halle win, Wimbledon SF), that puts him at 11080, and with a Washington win, that gives him 11280. To get out ahead of that, Djokovic needs a RG final, Wimbledon win, and a Halle/Queens performance. Nadal would still need even more than a Wimbledon win, so that's not incredibly likely, but neither is Medvedev making this run, considering that he's only had 1 win on clay this year.

A more realistic Medvedev prediction would be RG R16 (at best) for 170 points, a Queens/Halle F (also optimistic, but less so), and a Wimbledon QF. That's 170 + 120 + 270 = 560. That brings him up to 10340 points. That's ahead of Nadal if Nadal wins RG and gets to the Wimbledon final (without winning). He'll also be ahead of Djokovic if Djokovic doesn't win either RG or Wimbledon. If he wins either, Djokovic ends up ahead.

For Nadal to be #1, he needs to win Wimbledon and RG. If Nadal can't win both then he's got practically no chance at #1 before Canada. There's an outside chance with the grass 500 and Washington + a Wimbledon final, but it's unlikely Nadal plays so many 500s.

In essence, for Nadal to be #1 in the next few months, he needs to complete the Channel Slam. For Djokovic to stay #1, he needs to win one of the next 2 slams. Otherwise, Medvedev will become #1. And that all rests on Medvedev not doing super well at RG or on grass. If Medvedev can somehow pull together something at either slam, he might get #1 even if Nadal or Djokovic pull off a slam win or two.
All of this is true, of course, but Medvedev will not do well on clay until he becomes a lot more enamored of clay.

And if he takes number one it will be a brief stint unless he turns in an incredible hardcourt season after the Olympics because he had a gazillion points to defend.
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Now that Rome has played out to completion, we know more or less where we stand.

After Rome:
Medvedev: 9780
Djokovic: 11063
Nadal: 9630

In terms of optimistic Medvedev predictions, let's again say the RG QF is possible. That gives him 350 points, putting him at 10130. With the same grass optimism (Queens/Halle win, Wimbledon SF), that puts him at 11080, and with a Washington win, that gives him 11280. To get out ahead of that, Djokovic needs a RG final, Wimbledon win, and a Halle/Queens performance. Nadal would still need even more than a Wimbledon win, so that's not incredibly likely, but neither is Medvedev making this run, considering that he's only had 1 win on clay this year.

A more realistic Medvedev prediction would be RG R16 (at best) for 170 points, a Queens/Halle F (also optimistic, but less so), and a Wimbledon QF. That's 170 + 120 + 270 = 560. That brings him up to 10340 points. That's ahead of Nadal if Nadal wins RG and gets to the Wimbledon final (without winning). He'll also be ahead of Djokovic if Djokovic doesn't win either RG or Wimbledon. If he wins either, Djokovic ends up ahead.

For Nadal to be #1, he needs to win Wimbledon and RG. If Nadal can't win both then he's got practically no chance at #1 before Canada. There's an outside chance with the grass 500 and Washington + a Wimbledon final, but it's unlikely Nadal plays so many 500s.

In essence, for Nadal to be #1 in the next few months, he needs to complete the Channel Slam. For Djokovic to stay #1, he needs to win one of the next 2 slams. Otherwise, Medvedev will become #1. And that all rests on Medvedev not doing super well at RG or on grass. If Medvedev can somehow pull together something at either slam, he might get #1 even if Nadal or Djokovic pull off a slam win or two.
Turns out Belgrade 2 is a thing that I really didn't think Djokovic would be taking part in, but he looks set to win it. He's up against Alex Molcan, ranked 255 in the world, in the final. A loss would be tragic. So let's assume he wins (if he doesn't, you all know who jinxed him).

After Belgrade 2:
Medvedev: 9793
Djokovic: 11313
Nadal: 9630

We also know Djokovic has a very easy draw to the RG SF, where he faces Nadal. It's reasonable to assume Djokovic will not lose before the SF, but it's also reasonable to assume he will not make it past the SF.

Once again, let's assume Medvedev can pull off the following: RG QF, Queens/Halle W, Wimbledon SF, Washington W - putting him at 11293. To end above that, Djokovic just needs to match his performance in years past: a RG F, Wimbledon W. However, with the draw as it stands at RG, a final isn't incredibly likely. It's very optimistic to say Djokovic makes it past the semifinal. Still, not at all likely Medvedev pulls this off. Nadal would need a RG win, Wimbledon win, and some deep results at a 500. Not terribly likely.

In the realistic scenario for Medvedev in my previous post, the Djokovic math is the only one that changes - to have 10340 points, Djokovic needs to get the RG SF, then not win Wimbledon. If both of these happen and Medvedev pulls off that hard, but not impossible, series of tournaments, then Medvedev becomes #1.

Nadal's "soft" maximum for points is 10910 (RG + Wimbledon win, no 500s), which Djokovic cannot beat. However, if Nadal doesn't win Wimbledon (only final), that's only 10110. To stay ahead, Djokovic needs to make the RG SF and win Wimbledon. Generally speaking, if RG works out how we think it will, then Djokovic just needs to outdo Nadal at Wimbledon by over 83 points. Not impossible for Nadal to hit #1 at all.

Medvedev chances at #1 are probably around 5-15%, Nadal's chances are probably around 30-35%, Djokovic maintaining through Canada is likely around 50-60%. RG will be very illuminating.
 

Texas Tennis Fan

Professional
Turns out Belgrade 2 is a thing that I really didn't think Djokovic would be taking part in, but he looks set to win it. He's up against Alex Molcan, ranked 255 in the world, in the final. A loss would be tragic. So let's assume he wins (if he doesn't, you all know who jinxed him).

After Belgrade 2:
Medvedev: 9793
Djokovic: 11313
Nadal: 9630

We also know Djokovic has a very easy draw to the RG SF, where he faces Nadal. It's reasonable to assume Djokovic will not lose before the SF, but it's also reasonable to assume he will not make it past the SF.

Once again, let's assume Medvedev can pull off the following: RG QF, Queens/Halle W, Wimbledon SF, Washington W - putting him at 11293. To end above that, Djokovic just needs to match his performance in years past: a RG F, Wimbledon W. However, with the draw as it stands at RG, a final isn't incredibly likely. It's very optimistic to say Djokovic makes it past the semifinal. Still, not at all likely Medvedev pulls this off. Nadal would need a RG win, Wimbledon win, and some deep results at a 500. Not terribly likely.

In the realistic scenario for Medvedev in my previous post, the Djokovic math is the only one that changes - to have 10340 points, Djokovic needs to get the RG SF, then not win Wimbledon. If both of these happen and Medvedev pulls off that hard, but not impossible, series of tournaments, then Medvedev becomes #1.

Nadal's "soft" maximum for points is 10910 (RG + Wimbledon win, no 500s), which Djokovic cannot beat. However, if Nadal doesn't win Wimbledon (only final), that's only 10110. To stay ahead, Djokovic needs to make the RG SF and win Wimbledon. Generally speaking, if RG works out how we think it will, then Djokovic just needs to outdo Nadal at Wimbledon by over 83 points. Not impossible for Nadal to hit #1 at all.

Medvedev chances at #1 are probably around 5-15%, Nadal's chances are probably around 30-35%, Djokovic maintaining through Canada is likely around 50-60%. RG will be very illuminating.
If Djokovic is still No. 1 by Canada, he is likely No. 1 till the end of the year because he has so many fewer points to defend than Nadal and especially Medvedev.
 

Texas Tennis Fan

Professional
I think Medvedev may briefly hold no. 1 in the next few weeks if he plays well and goes deeper in RG and Wimbledon. However, I think Tsitsipas is far more likely to gain it and hold it longer say in September, 2022 because he already plays well on all surfaces. Who knows about Thiem and Zverev. It is also possible that Djokovic holds onto the No. 1 for longer than we think because these 4 players (add in Rublev, Sinner, and a few others) may split points allowing Djokovic to be at or near the top for 2-3 more years.
 

mehdimike

Hall of Fame
I think Medvedev may briefly hold no. 1 in the next few weeks if he plays well and goes deeper in RG and Wimbledon. However, I think Tsitsipas is far more likely to gain it and hold it longer say in September, 2022 because he already plays well on all surfaces. Who knows about Thiem and Zverev. It is also possible that Djokovic holds onto the No. 1 for longer than we think because these 4 players (add in Rublev, Sinner, and a few others) may split points allowing Djokovic to be at or near the top for 2-3 more years.
Please! Give me some hope that Rafa will become #1 at least once more:(
 

Texas Tennis Fan

Professional
Please! Give me some hope that Rafa will become #1 at least once more:(
I apologize! I didn't mean to overlook Nadal.

Nadal actually has a better chance of getting number one in the near future than Medvedev. He has the problem in that he cannot gain anything at RG and can gain 1280 points at Wimbledon if he wins but he has not gotten to the Finals at Wimbledon for more than 10 years. He does have an advantage since Federer is unlikely to go deep at Wimbledon IMO and Nadal could be on the opposite side of Djokovic and make the finals there where he is likely to lose, thus gaining 480 points. But this is not enough to overtake Djokovic if he goes deeply into the FO (and he has a nice draw to make the SFs) and Wimbledon. If Djokovic gets to the SF at RG and wins Wimbledon, he will be the No. 1 for the rest of the year and likely win YE No. 1 (which is calculated only on this years points, so differently from the weekly No. 1).

I think that Nadal also has the best chance of unseating Djokovic for YE No. 1 unless Tsitsipas or Medvedev start winning slams (I think they may be a year or two away). Nadal has never won the YE No. 1 without winning two slams and I think that is unlikely at his age and with the change in court speed at the US Open.

I hope you feel better now!
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
I apologize! I didn't mean to overlook Nadal.

Nadal actually has a better chance of getting number one in the near future than Medvedev. He has the problem in that he cannot gain anything at RG and can gain 1280 points at Wimbledon if he wins but he has not gotten to the Finals at Wimbledon for more than 10 years. He does have an advantage since Federer is unlikely to go deep at Wimbledon IMO and Nadal could be on the opposite side of Djokovic and make the finals there where he is likely to lose, thus gaining 480 points. But this is not enough to overtake Djokovic if he goes deeply into the FO (and he has a nice draw to make the SFs) and Wimbledon. If Djokovic gets to the SF at RG and wins Wimbledon, he will be the No. 1 for the rest of the year and likely win YE No. 1 (which is calculated only on this years points, so differently from the weekly No. 1).

I think that Nadal also has the best chance of unseating Djokovic for YE No. 1 unless Tsitsipas or Medvedev start winning slams (I think they may be a year or two away). Nadal has never won the YE No. 1 without winning two slams and I think that is unlikely at his age and with the change in court speed at the US Open.

I hope you feel better now!

Thinking Novak will be staying number one for quite a while yet.
 

Texas Tennis Fan

Professional
If he plays well for the rest of the year with only one more clay tournament and a grass slam and then hard court with fewer points to defend, it is his for the taking (or keeping).
 

Texas Tennis Fan

Professional
Rafa needs to win RG and reach Wimb F to have a realistic chance of reaching #1! Highly unlikely to me!
Even then, I believe he is short even if Djokovic loses early in both slams. Djokovic has a lead of 1683 points over Nadal right now, so Nadal would have to win both slams to take over after Wimbledon unless he plays an additional tournament in between which is not happening.
 

mehdimike

Hall of Fame
Even then, I believe he is short even if Djokovic loses early in both slams. Djokovic has a lead of 1683 points over Nadal right now, so Nadal would have to win both slams to take over after Wimbledon unless he plays an additional tournament in between which is not happening.
Is it because of Covid rankings?! Otherwise it seems weird to me! He has had a fairly good clay season so far. Just one bad result at AO and he is screwed?!
 

Texas Tennis Fan

Professional
It is a good question. Both Djokovic and Nadal have benefited from the COVID rankings with last year Nadal benefiting more. Djokovic skipped Madrid and retained 500 points this year, so maybe he benefited a little more. It is harder for Nadal to make up distance in clay season because he usually does well then, so cannot gain much in the way of points. Djokovic has a great opportunity to stay no. 1 if he wins Wimbledon again because he has so many points to gain at US Open, Shanghai, and Indian Wells (assuming it is really played in October).

I do think this year it will be between Nadal and Djokovic for YE No. 1. Next year, I think the younger players might be in play for No. 1.
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Even then, I believe he is short even if Djokovic loses early in both slams. Djokovic has a lead of 1683 points over Nadal right now, so Nadal would have to win both slams to take over after Wimbledon unless he plays an additional tournament in between which is not happening.
Is it because of Covid rankings?! Otherwise it seems weird to me! He has had a fairly good clay season so far. Just one bad result at AO and he is screwed?!
I laid it out just above. If Nadal wins RG by taking out Djokovic in the semifinal, then Djokovic needs to outdo Rafa by 83 points at Wimbledon to stay #1. Otherwise Djokovic stays #1.

Also Nadal has a decent shot at YE#1 but not great. The fact is by this point in the season Nadal should be #1 or #2 in the race already. If he's not #1 in the race after RG (or at least ahead of Djokovic by some margin), it's difficult to see how he becomes YE#1. Nadal is not quite as strong a favorite as Novak is at Wimbledon, and even if he performs well on grass and outdoor HC, there's still the indoor season that doesn't really do Nadal any favors.

It's too early to talk about YE#1, but by Canada, Nadal can definitely take #1 if A. Djokovic doesn't outperform him at Wimbledon and B. if Medvedev doesn't perform significantly better than expected at RG, a grass 500, and Wimbledon.
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
Is it because of Covid rankings?! Otherwise it seems weird to me! He has had a fairly good clay season so far. Just one bad result at AO and he is screwed?!
Djokovic's net benefit from COVID rankings thus far is 2750 points (45 from 2019 Miami + 500 from 2019 Madrid + 180 from 2019 USO + 1000 from 2019 Paris + 525 [665-140] from 2020 ATP Cup + 500 from 2020 Dubai)

Nadal himself has 2500 points he shouldn't have thanks to COVID rankings (2000 from 2019 USO and 500 from 2020 Acapulco).

So the difference is not all that large just yet. But Djokovic could gain ~1600 additional COVID points from his 2020 RG and 2019 Wimbledon campaigns
 

mehdimike

Hall of Fame
Djokovic's net benefit from COVID rankings thus far is 2750 points (45 from 2019 Miami + 500 from 2019 Madrid + 180 from 2019 USO + 1000 from 2019 Paris + 525 [665-140] from 2020 ATP Cup + 500 from 2020 Dubai)

Nadal himself has 2500 points he shouldn't have thanks to COVID rankings (2000 from 2019 USO and 500 from 2020 Acapulco).

So the difference is not all that large just yet. But Djokovic could gain ~1600 additional COVID points from his 2020 RG and 2019 Wimbledon campaigns
Oh I forgot Wimb points are not gonna be totally dropped :rolleyes:
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Week 1 over at RG!

Some expected results (Djokovic and Nadal reach R4), some less expected (Medvedev reaching R4). Let's see where we stand!
Medvedev: 9963
Djokovic: 10713
Nadal: 8630

So far, Medvedev is the only one that's already gaining points at RG. The effective gap between the current #1 and Medvedev is less than 800 points. We now have a few scenarios, but let's entertain some extravagant ones.

1. Medvedev wins RG. If Medvedev wins RG, he becomes #1. Djokovic can only gain 600 points relative to his live total right now. Medvedev can reach 11783 with a win here, so that puts him above Djokovic's 11313. Instant #1.
2. Medvedev reaches RG final, losing to Djokovic. Djokovic then has 12113 points relative to Medvedev's 10883. A good performance at Wimbledon could push Medvedev over the top here, but overall Djokovic's lead would have been reduced by less than otherwise. This is a bad result for Medvedev's chances at #1.

I'm done with those scenarios, let's move on to what I consider likeliest. If Medvedev makes it through Garin, he faces Tsitsipas, who is likely the favorite against him. I'm fine with assuming an RG QF moving forward for Medvedev. Let's also assume Djokovic loses to Nadal (who wins the title), as we assumed previously.

Med: 10143
Djokovic: 10833
Nadal: 9630

If Medvedev can parlay that into some good results on grass - Halle/Queens final, Wimbledon QF - that puts him at 10533 points. Slightly behind Djokovic, but only if Djokovic can win Wimbledon. A couple other variations for Medvedev:

1. Halle/Queens win, Wimbledon SF - 11093 points. Djokovic cannot beat this.
2. Halle/Queens withdrawal, Wimbledon F - 11163 points. Djokovic cannot beat this, but any less than a F for Medvedev and Djokovic can best it by retaining his title.
3. Djokovic reaches only the Wimbledon final. Medvedev doesn't even need to play on grass, he ends up #1.
4. Djokovic plays Halle/Queens and wins, then only makes Wimbledon final. Medvedev would only need a Wimbledon QF and Halle/Queens final (or rough equivalent in terms of points over grass season to be #1)

Now for Nadal vs. Medvedev. If Nadal also wins Wimbledon, he gets up to 10910 points, maybe some more with a 500, but lets assume no 500 for now. Medvedev would then only need 768 points to get ahead. This is equal to a 500 W, Wimbledon SF or a Wimbledon F. That's a tough ask made even tougher if Nadal plays a 500 in the leadup. Safe to say if Nadal wins Wimbledon, he becomes #1. However, even if he loses in the final to anyone but Djokovic, Medvedev is pretty much guaranteed #1.

So rough outline if my assumptions hold true? If Djokodal win Wimbledon, whoever wins it between them will be #1 (probably). If Djokodal do not win Wimbledon, chances are Medvedev becomes #1.

Medvedev's chances at #1? Roughly equal to the bookmaker's odds on Wimbledon being won by the field, plus a little extra (if he wins against Garin). Just looked it up, that's roughly 42%. Novak's are ~44%, and Nadal's is ~14%. If Med loses the R16, his chances will go down some, as it'll be slightly easier to hold off Medvedev for Nadal and Djokovic, and in that case the chances are maybe 30%, 52%, 18%.
 
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mike danny

Bionic Poster
Appreciate OP for continuing to return to this thread and giving us updates on the situation. It’s actually a lot closer than I would have expected, looking at it.
Yeah and as fairytale-y as it sounded before, it's not super unrealistic anymore LOL.

I mean, the way Meddy is playing he might surprise people here and Djokovic is pretty much guaranteed to lose to Nadal in the semis so he won't make the final.
 

TennisIcon

Rookie
It’s basically confirmed its going to happen at one point. If not next week then definitely during Wimbledon. Medevedev is playing Halle and that already gives him a leg up on Djokovic. Even Djokovic winning Wimbeldon still isn’t enough to stop Medvedev now.
 

Beckerserve

Legend
So since points have once again begun dropping, we're going to see volatility in the rankings we haven't seen in a while. Djokovic is less than 2300 points in the lead right now.

Medvedev is defending max points at Cincinnati, Shanghai, Paris, ATP Finals, and finals at both Canada and the USO. It's unlikely Medvedev can improve his performance there, so he'll be gunning for the #1 position before Canada.

The coming events from now to then: Dubai/Acapulco, Miami, Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, RG, Halle/Queens, Wimbledon, Hamburg, Olympics, Washington.

Djokovic is defending Dubai - 500, Miami - 90, MC - 180, Madrid - 1000, Rome - 1000, RG - 720, Wimbledon - 2000. Total: 5590
Medvedev is defending Miami - 90, MC - 360, Barcelona - 300, Madrid - 10, Rome - 10, RG - 10, Wimbledon - 90. Total: 870

Given their schedules, neither is playing Dubai. That makes Djokovic's lead <2050.
Forget about Miami for now.

Djokovic's schedule is MC and Belgrade after that, implying no Barcelona, and more than likely one of Madrid or Rome, not both. Let's say Djokovic wins Rome, losing Monte Carlo in the semi, and wins Serbia. In total, he will come out with 1000+500+360+250 = 2110 points, losing 70 points from before, making his lead <1950.

Now assume Medvedev gets the the QF of everything from MC-Wimbledon. It's optimistic given his previous years, but it's not ridiculous - the man's the world #2, so a QF isn't unexpected. That will give him 1510 points, roughly 400 points from #1.

That doesn't include Miami. If Medvedev wins Miami, that will give him another 400-1000 points to chip away from Djokovic's lead. If Medvedev wins Miami, becoming world #1 is a very real possibility. Even if Djokovic wins Miami and Medvedev loses before the final (+640 for Djokovic), that doesn't entirely stop Medvedev from being a threat. This will be very interesting to see play out in Miami and Monte Carlo.

Obviously the numbers here are very hand-wavy, since there's so many permutations of results right now, but the numbers I laid out are somewhat optimistic for Djokovic and somewhat middle-of-the-road for Medvedev. He can perform better or worse, but it's impossible to tell just yet.

EDIT: Forgot that only half points are being dropped. Adjusted to account for this.
No.1 ranking is an irrelevance. Medvedev getting it would prove the point.
 

Texas Tennis Fan

Professional
No.1 ranking is an irrelevance. Medvedev getting it would prove the point.
Beckerserve, you seem to be bipolar lately. And you don't understand what the word "prove" means. I understand you want to de-emphasize the No.1 since Nadal is more than 100 weeks behind Djokovic and Federer, but I'd encourage you not to say such outlandish statements as you just did. If you had said, Medvedev holding No.1 doesn't mean much, I could agree.

I am surprise that Medvedev has done as well as he has. He is showing that he can be an all-court player like the Big 3 and Tsitsipas. Good for him.
 

Beckerserve

Legend
Beckerserve, you seem to be bipolar lately. And you don't understand what the word "prove" means. I understand you want to de-emphasize the No.1 since Nadal is more than 100 weeks behind Djokovic and Federer, but I'd encourage you not to say such outlandish statements as you just did. If you had said, Medvedev holding No.1 doesn't mean much, I could agree.

I am surprise that Medvedev has done as well as he has. He is showing that he can be an all-court player like the Big 3 and Tsitsipas. Good for him.
Isnt that what i said? The no.1 ranking is irrelevant. I.e wont mean much when Medvedev gets it?
 

Texas Tennis Fan

Professional
No, that is not what you said. You dismissed holding the No. 1 ranking altogether rather than saying more precisely that Medvedev holding it for a few weeks is not that important.

We know your tricks, my Friend :)
 

aman92

Legend
Basically assuming Nadal wins RG and Medvevev bows out in the QF.. Djokovic needs to win Wimby to retain no 1..however i think the way Med is playing, he might just sneak past Tsitsipas to reach RG semi or even final.. That's enough to get him No 1 right?
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Basically assuming Nadal wins RG and Medvevev bows out in the QF.. Djokovic needs to win Wimby to retain no 1..however i think the way Med is playing, he might just sneak past Tsitsipas to reach RG semi or even final.. That's enough to get him No 1 right?
Medvedev SF at RG wouldn't get him to #1 if Djokovic also makes the semis. A Medvedev final would make him #1, though, if Djokovic goes out in the semifinals. A semifinal would make it so he just needs to make the Wimbledon R4 or Halle/Queens SF to become #1, though.
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
Medvedev SF at RG wouldn't get him to #1 if Djokovic also makes the semis. A Medvedev final would make him #1, though, if Djokovic goes out in the semifinals. A semifinal would make it so he just needs to make the Wimbledon R4 or Halle/Queens SF to become #1, though.

Wow, this is a scarily realistic possibility. Possumvedev has breezed into the quarters after claiming to despise clay; faces a guy he owns 6-1 H2H and then potentially Zverev.
Djokovic has Nadal to navigate somehow
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
My math was slightly off earlier. I will be updating to correct this, all under the assumption that Djokovic loses in the SF against Nadal, who wins RG.

Ways Medvedev can become #1:
0. If Djokovic makes the Wimbledon SF and only reaches a 500 final, Medvedev would automatically be #1 post-Wimbledon.
1. If Djokovic makes the Wimbledon SF but wins a 500, Medvedev would need the Wimbledon R16.
2. If Djokovic only makes the Wimbledon final, Medvedev would just need to reach the Wimbledon R32 or the Halle/Queens SF.
3. If Djokovic wins Halle/Queens then loses the Wimbledon final, Medvedev would need a Wimbledon SF.
4. If Djokovic wins Wimbledon, Medvedev would need a Wimbledon SF and the Halle/Queens final.
5. If Djokovic wins Wimbledon and Halle/Queens, Medvedev would need a Wimbledon final and a Halle/Queens final.

In effect this doesn't change much from what I said before. If Djokovic loses Wimbledon, Medvedev is practically guaranteed #1 after Wimbledon (unless Djokovic makes a deep run at Halle/Queens too). If Djokovic wins Wimbledon, it seems just a little too much for Medvedev to do, I think.

The math against Nadal changes also, but in summary it's this - if Nadal wins Wimbledon, Medvedev will either have had to win Halle/Queens + Wimbledon semi or reached the Wimbledon final.
 
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topher

Hall of Fame
My math was slightly off earlier. I will be updating to correct this, all under the assumption that Djokovic loses in the SF against Nadal, who wins RG.

Ways Medvedev can become #1:
0. If Djokovic makes the Wimbledon SF and only reaches a 500 final, Medvedev would automatically be #1 post-Wimbledon.
1. If Djokovic makes the Wimbledon SF but wins a 500, Medvedev would need the Wimbledon R16.
2. If Djokovic only makes the Wimbledon final, Medvedev would just need to reach the Wimbledon R32 or the Halle/Queens SF.
3. If Djokovic wins Halle/Queens then loses the Wimbledon final, Medvedev would need a Wimbledon SF.
4. If Djokovic wins Wimbledon, Medvedev would need a Wimbledon SF and the Halle/Queens final.
5. If Djokovic wins Wimbledon and Halle/Queens, Medvedev would need a Wimbledon final and a Halle/Queens final.

In effect this doesn't change much from what I said before. If Djokovic loses Wimbledon, Medvedev is practically guaranteed #1 after Wimbledon (unless Djokovic makes a deep run at Halle/Queens too). If Djokovic wins Wimbledon, it seems just a little too much for Medvedev to do, I think.

The math against Nadal changes also, but in summary it's this - if Nadal wins Wimbledon, Medvedev will either have had to win Halle/Queens + Wimbledon semi or reached the Wimbledon final.

I’m sure if Rafa wins Wimbledon the last thing he’d be upset about would be Med getting #1, I know I’d happily take that.

As an aside, the winner of the Zverev/Tstitsipas semifinal will be the new world #4, displacing Thiem.
 

Street

Semi-Pro
How does djokovic losing or winning the final of RG influence the possible outcomes after wimbledon?
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
How does djokovic losing or winning the final of RG influence the possible outcomes after wimbledon?
Djokovic wins:

~1015 points difference heading into Wimby - Medvedev would basically have to reach the final to overtake Djokovic, regardless of what Novak does. If Djokovic reaches the final himself, Med would have to win.

Djokovic loses:

~215 points difference heading into Wimby - Medvedev could overtake Djokovic with a QF result if Djokovic fails to reach the final

The one thing complicating these calculations is Medvedev plays Halle, where he could gain 320 points (or lose 90). A title in Halle would give the Russian more in control of the race to #1
 
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TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Well... now?
How does djokovic losing or winning the final of RG influence the possible outcomes after wimbledon?
I was creating some outcomes, but I felt like the fact that the final is within 48 hours and is worth 800 points was too significant to map out entirely in both cases.

Let's assume that Djokovic will not play Queens/Halle.

Djokovic loses the RG final:
Djokovic SF or less: Medvedev needs an extra 306 points to pass Djokovic. Winning Halle/Queens is sufficient, as is a Wimbledon QF.
Djokovic F: Medvedev needs 506 points to pass Djokovic. Needs to win Halle/Queens and make the Wimbledon QF to do it. (or Wimbledon SF)
Djokovic W: Medvedev needs 1306 points to pass Djokovic. Needs both a Wimbledon final and a Halle/Queens W.

Djokovic wins the RG final:
Djokovic SF or less: Medvedev needs a Wimbledon final, plus at least a SF in Halle/Queens.
Djokovic F: Needs to win Wimbledon.
Djokovic W: Impossible.

With Halle/Queens for Djokovic, the permutations start getting a little out of hand and I'd rather not do that until a RG result is finalized.
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
I was creating some outcomes, but I felt like the fact that the final is within 48 hours and is worth 800 points was too significant to map out entirely in both cases.

Let's assume that Djokovic will not play Queens/Halle.

Djokovic loses the RG final:
Djokovic SF or less: Medvedev needs an extra 306 points to pass Djokovic. Winning Halle/Queens is sufficient, as is a Wimbledon QF.
Djokovic F: Medvedev needs 506 points to pass Djokovic. Needs to win Halle/Queens and make the Wimbledon QF to do it. (or Wimbledon SF)
Djokovic W: Medvedev needs 1306 points to pass Djokovic. Needs both a Wimbledon final and a Halle/Queens W.

Djokovic wins the RG final:
Djokovic SF or less: Medvedev needs a Wimbledon final, plus at least a SF in Halle/Queens.
Djokovic F: Needs to win Wimbledon.
Djokovic W: Impossible.

With Halle/Queens for Djokovic, the permutations start getting a little out of hand and I'd rather not do that until a RG result is finalized.
It's too late for Djokovic to enter Queen's/Halle anyway

He'll prepare for grass in Mallorca (but most likely won't play the ATP tournament there)
 

Milanez82

Hall of Fame
It's too late for Djokovic to enter Queen's/Halle anyway

He'll prepare for grass in Mallorca (but most likely won't play the ATP tournament there)
He already announced he will prepare there and Musseti will travel together with him to Wimbledon on a private flight implying he will be his guest and training partner
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Well, so much for that LOL.

If Medvedev does become no.1, I want Novak to go all Serena on his ass and say:

"Yeah, he deserves it, I mean he's won Paris and Marseille" before he bursts into laughing. :-D
 
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