Medvedev's Play for #1

[jm1980]

With Djokovic's win today, he will have, after Wimbledon:

11113 points if he fails to reach the final
11313 points if he loses in the final
12113 points if he wins the title

Medvedev's points matrix after Wimbledon is:

	Halle 1R/2R/QF	Halle SF	Halle F	Halle W
Wim 1R/2R	10008​	10098​	10218​	10418​
Wim 3R	10053​	10143​	10263​	10463​
Wim 4R	10143​	10233​	10353​	10553​
Wim QF	10323​	10413​	10533​	10733​
Wim SF	10683​	10773​	10893​	11093​
Wim F	11163​	11243​	11363​	11563​
Wim W	11963​	12053​	12173​	12373​

If my calculations are correct, what this essentially means is, Halle's results are irrelevant. It all hinges on Wimbledon. Medvedev can take over #1 spot IF:

1. Medvedev reaches the final at Wimbledon and Djokovic loses before the final, or
2. Medvedev wins the title

 

[James P]

With Djokovic's win today, Djokovic will have, after Wimbledon:

11113 points if he fails to reach the final
11313 points if he loses in the final
12113 points if he wins the title

Medvedev's points matrix is:

	Halle 1R/2R/QF	Halle SF	Halle F	Halle W
Wim 1R/2R	10008​	10098​	10218​	10418​
Wim 3R	10053​	10143​	10263​	10463​
Wim 4R	10143​	10233​	10353​	10553​
Wim QF	10323​	10413​	10533​	10733​
Wim SF	10683​	10773​	10893​	11093​
Wim F	11163​	11243​	11363​	11563​
Wim W	11963​	12053​	12173​	12373​

If my calculations are correct, what this essentially means is, Halle's results are irrelevant. It all hinges on Wimbledon. Medvedev can take over #1 spot IF:

1. Medvedev reaches the final at Wimbledon and Djokovic loses before the final
2. Medvedev wins the final the final over Djokovic

I think a win, period, at Wimbledon is enough. It's a 2700 point swing. It's very unlikely, but if Medvedev beat Djokovic in the final, Halle points notwithstanding, it'd be 12,053 Medvedev, 11,313 Djokovic (add 1910 to Medvedev, subtract 800 for Djokovic). Basically that's "the play" at this point, pretty much the only play.

 

[jm1980]

I think a win, period, at Wimbledon is enough. It's a 2700 point swing. It's very unlikely, but if Medvedev beat Djokovic in the final, Halle points notwithstanding, it'd be 12,053 Medvedev, 11,313 Djokovic (add 1910 to Medvedev, subtract 800 for Djokovic). Basically that's "the play" at this point, pretty much the only play.

Correct. If Djokovic reaches the final, Medvedev will have to win the title.

But if Novak loses before the final, the Russian will take #1 with a final at Wimbledon.

What happens at Halle is irrelevant.

 

[James P]

Correct. If Djokovic reaches the final, Medvedev will have to win the title.

But if Novak loses before the final, the Russian will take #1 with a final at Wimbledon.

What happens at Halle is irrelevant.

I suppose it's always possible Federer could knock him out in the QFs. Pretty unlikely. Feels like a 75% chance or so that Djokovic makes the final, but stranger things have happened.

 

[Tennisbg]

Somehow I do not see Medvedev reaching the final of Wimbledon.

 

[jm1980]

Needless to say, the latest development isn't going to help Med's cause going forward.
If Djokovic really wants to keep the #1 ranking, he could take a WC into the singles draw in Mallorca. Reaching the SF there would force Medvedev to have to win Wimbledon in order to take the #1 from him

What this also means is Medvedev will have to reach the SF at Wimbledon to beat his rather mediocre 2019/20 campaign on clay and grass

2019/20: 360 (MC SF) + 300 (Barcelona F) + 10 (Madrid 1R) + 10 (Rome 1R) + 10 (RG 1R) + 180 (Queen's SF) + 90 (Wim 3R) = 960 points
2021: 90 (Madrid 3R) + 10 (Rome 1R) + 360 (RG QF) + 0 (Halle 1R) = 460 points (+ Wimbledon pending)

Additionally, since Med will get to keep half of his 180 SF points from 2019, this reduces Djokovic's net benefit from the latest COVID revision to the rankings to a mere 125 points:

Djokovic: 45 (Miami) + 500 (Madrid) = 545 points
Medvedev: 180 (MC) + 150 (Barcelona) + 90 (Queen's) = 420 points

Wimbledon is probably still going to be Med's best chance. He will have a massive amount of points to defend in the NA HC season (Washington F + Canada F + Cincy title + USO F)

 

[mehdimike]

Needless to say, the latest development isn't going to help Med's cause going forward.
If Djokovic really wants to keep the #1 ranking, he could take a WC into the singles draw in Mallorca. Reaching the SF there would force Medvedev to have to win Wimbledon in order to take the #1 from him

What this also means is Medvedev will have to reach the SF at Wimbledon to beat his rather mediocre 2019/20 campaign on clay and grass

2019/20: 360 (MC SF) + 300 (Barcelona F) + 10 (Madrid 1R) + 10 (Rome 1R) + 10 (RG 1R) + 180 (Queen's SF) + 90 (Wim 3R) = 960 points
2021: 90 (Madrid 3R) + 10 (Rome 1R) + 360 (RG QF) + 0 (Halle 1R) = 460 points (+ Wimbledon pending)

Additionally, since Med will get to keep half of his 180 SF points from 2019, this reduces Djokovic's net benefit from the latest COVID revision to the rankings to a mere 125 points:

Djokovic: 45 (Miami) + 500 (Madrid) = 545 points
Medvedev: 180 (MC) + 150 (Barcelona) + 90 (Queen's) = 420 points

Wimbledon is probably still going to be Med's best chance. He will have a massive amount of points to defend in the NA HC season (Washington F + Canada F + Cincy title + USO F)

+ Paris + WTF

 

[NAS]

+ Paris + WTF

Shanghai also

 

[mehdimike]

Shanghai also

I thought it was canceled and after rechecking it seems that it's gonna be held

 

[NAS]

I thought it was canceled and after rechecking it seems that it's gonna be held

Med is defending 6700 points approx after Wimbledon

 

[Milanez82]

Djokovic isn't taking any WC to have a few weeks at no1

Its all about winning the Wimbledon.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Djokovic shouldn't lose the ranking to Medevedev anyway.

Only players with slams in last 52 should be eligible for no. 1.

Djokovic won 2 slams since January and if we count Wimbledon 2019, 3/4.

Meddy shouldn't be in the race itself. Focus on getting a slam first.

 

[TripleATeam]

Looking ahead, it now looks like only Wimbledon remains in sight, but 3 more tournaments could spell victory for Medvedev if he makes it. Washington, Canada, US Open.

He can gain +200 with a Washington win. +400 with a Canada win. Then he'd be defending a Cincinnati win, US Open final (where he could gain points), and wins at all the post-USO masters until the ATP Finals, which he's also defending maximum points at. Meaning if he isn't #1 by the US Open's end, he's very unlikely to be #1 after it.

Medvedev has exactly 4 possible chances at #1 left in the next while. First is after Wimbledon, next is after Washington, after that is after Canada, then after the US Open.

If Djokovic wins Wimbledon, Medvedev cannot get to #1 after Wimbledon, Washington, or Canada, and can only get #1 if he wins Washington or Canada, Cincinnati, and the US Open.

If Djokovic reaches only the final, if Medvedev wins Wimbledon, he becomes #1. Let's assume he only reaches the SF. Then the earliest he could become #1 is at the US Open with a win (or Djokovic losing extremely early).

If Djokovic doesn't reach the final, then Medvedev becomes #1 if he makes the final. Let's assume he only gets a SF for argument's sake. Then the earliest Medvedev could become #1 is in Canada with wins in both Washington and Canada.

 

[Milanez82]

Well now that it's a fact that Medvedev making a deep run at Halle was a ridiculous prediction, its safe to predict he isn't going anywhere deep at Wimbledon.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Medevedev is good. Tsitsipas has most wins and most pts in 2021.
What is the chance that he loses even no. 2 ranking now to Tsitsipas?

3400 pts to defend until next year for Tsitispas it seems.
7500 pts to defend until next year for Medevedev. Seems to be matter of time until Meddy is replaced at no. 2.

 

[jm1980]

It all hinges on Wimbledon. Medvedev can take over #1 spot IF:

1. Medvedev reaches the final at Wimbledon and Djokovic loses before the final, or
2. Medvedev wins the title

As an addendum to the real-world scenarios above, if the latest revision to the COVID rankings hadn't been made (where players kept 50% of the points earned from Mar-Aug):

• Djokovic would have entered Wimbledon with 11545 points*, defending 2000
• Medvedev would have entered Wimbledon with 9610 points*, defending 90

Which basically means Djokovic would have been ahead of Medvedev by 25 points, and would have retained the #1 spot as long as he matched Medvedev's performance

*assuming neither of them sign up last minute for a grass court tournament the week before Wimbledon

The summary is:

Before March 15th round of COVID revisions	After revisions (Current system)
Medvedev reaches #1 if he outperforms Djokovic by 1 round at Wimbledon	Medvedev reaches #1 if he wins Wimbledon, OR makes the final and Djokovic loses before F

 

[TripleATeam]

Medevedev is good. Tsitsipas has most wins and most pts in 2021.
What is the chance that he loses even no. 2 ranking now to Tsitsipas?

3400 pts to defend until next year for Tsitispas it seems.
7500 pts to defend until next year for Medevedev. Seems to be matter of time until Meddy is replaced at no. 2.

Yeah, that's typically evident in the Race. Right now Medvedev is #6, so if things stay the way they are, Tsitsipas should become #2 at about the Paris Masters. If not, then definitely at the ATP Cup.

 

[jm1980]

Medvedev has taken a WC into Mallorca:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1405099419444391943

This doesn't change the calculations. His play for #1 remains unchanged, regardless of his results in Mallorca: either win Wimbledon, or make the final and hope Novak loses before the final

 

[nolefam_2024]

Medvedev has taken a WC into Mallorca:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1405099419444391943

This doesn't change the calculations. His play for #1 remains unchanged, regardless of his results in Mallorca: either win Wimbledon, or make the final and hope Novak loses before the final

Needs match practice. With this kind of scheduling the grass will not be here for long.
Guy loses 1 match and all of a sudden he has not played on grass at all.

 

[TripleATeam]

Looking ahead, it now looks like only Wimbledon remains in sight, but 3 more tournaments could spell victory for Medvedev if he makes it. Washington, Canada, US Open.

He can gain +200 with a Washington win. +400 with a Canada win. Then he'd be defending a Cincinnati win, US Open final (where he could gain points), and wins at all the post-USO masters until the ATP Finals, which he's also defending maximum points at. Meaning if he isn't #1 by the US Open's end, he's very unlikely to be #1 after it.

Medvedev has exactly 4 possible chances at #1 left in the next while. First is after Wimbledon, next is after Washington, after that is after Canada, then after the US Open.

If Djokovic wins Wimbledon, Medvedev cannot get to #1 after Wimbledon, Washington, or Canada, and can only get #1 if he wins Washington or Canada, Cincinnati, and the US Open.

If Djokovic reaches only the final, if Medvedev wins Wimbledon, he becomes #1. Let's assume he only reaches the SF. Then the earliest he could become #1 is at the US Open with a win (or Djokovic losing extremely early).

If Djokovic doesn't reach the final, then Medvedev becomes #1 if he makes the final. Let's assume he only gets a SF for argument's sake. Then the earliest Medvedev could become #1 is in Canada with wins in both Washington and Canada.

Unfortunately friends, it seems that the dream has died for Medvedev.

Djokovic finds himself with a guaranteed 11113 points, and Medvedev has stalled in Wimbledon with just 10370.

Medvedev can gain points in several tournaments, but he'll need to be incredibly consistent on hard courts to do so and Djokovic will need to be subpar.

For now, Medvedev doesn't look to have a realistic chance at #1 before the end of 2021. Thanks for keeping up with everything in regards to this!

 

[jm1980]

Unfortunately friends, it seems that the dream has died for Medvedev.

Djokovic finds himself with a guaranteed 11113 points, and Medvedev has stalled in Wimbledon with just 10370.

Medvedev can gain points in several tournaments, but he'll need to be incredibly consistent on hard courts to do so and Djokovic will need to be subpar.

For now, Medvedev doesn't look to have a realistic chance at #1 before the end of 2021. Thanks for keeping up with everything in regards to this!

It's also worth noting the Wimbledon result means Medvedev wouldn't have passed Djokovic even without the March 2021 revisions to the rankings, regardless of what happens to Novak from here on out.

Unfortunately the poster who crowned Medvedev the "virtual #1" after Wimbledon is not here to answer for his enormous jinx

 

[James P]

Shapo would have to beat Novak tomorrow to keep this thread alive, most likely. It's probably over. There'll be chances in 2022 if he can do well enough in the hardcourt season to maintain his ranking.

 

[tudwell]

What's the situation here with Novak not playing Canada or Cincy? I can't keep up with how the points drop anymore. According to Live Rankings, if Med wins Canada, he'll be at 10,620 points to Djokovic's 12,113. Djokovic won Cincinnati ("Cincinnati") last year, so I assume he'll lose at least, what, 500 points? Or will he now lose all of them? If he drops an entire thousand, then Med would be about 500 points behind should he triumph in Canada.

 

[James P]

What's the situation here with Novak not playing Canada or Cincy? I can't keep up with how the points drop anymore. According to Live Rankings, if Med wins Canada, he'll be at 10,620 points to Djokovic's 12,113. Djokovic won Cincinnati ("Cincinnati") last year, so I assume he'll lose at least, what, 500 points? Or will he now lose all of them? If he drops an entire thousand, then Med would be about 500 points behind should he triumph in Canada.

Basically has to win three consecutive tournaments, then he probably has a shot. Djokovic isn't defending much at the USO, so it's hard to say if that would 100% for sure be enough, but I think it would. Granted, winning all three is a massive order, especially for someone that has yet to win a major.

 

[Tennisfan339]

What's the situation here with Novak not playing Canada or Cincy? I can't keep up with how the points drop anymore. According to Live Rankings, if Med wins Canada, he'll be at 10,620 points to Djokovic's 12,113. Djokovic won Cincinnati ("Cincinnati") last year, so I assume he'll lose at least, what, 500 points? Or will he now lose all of them? If he drops an entire thousand, then Med would be about 500 points behind should he triumph in Canada.

Toronto is the last tournament with this system. Medvedev dropped 300 points (half from his final in 2019). If he loses in final he will regain these 300 points.

Yes, if Medvedev wins Canada the gap will be 1493 points.
All points are dropping in Cincinnati and both Djokovic/Medvedev are "defending champions". Djokovic won last year, Medvedev lost to Bautista in 2020 but kept his 1000 points from 2019. That means both players are dropping 1000 points in Cincinnati. So even if Medvedev wins both Toronto and Cincinnati, the difference will be 493 points.

Medvedev lost in Final in USO 2019 (1200 points), Djokovic has 180 points from his 4th round in 2019. In brief, Medvedev can be #1 IF
1) He wins Toronto, Cincinnati AND USO.
2) Djokovic loses in NY in QF or before the QF.

Even if all this happens (unlikely but possible), Medvedev would need to win everything until the end of the year if he wants to stay #1. He is defending 1000 points in Shanghaï (but he will lose them as the event has been cancelled), 250 in St-Petersbourg, 1000 in Paris and 1500 in the WTF. Djokovic will drop the 500 points from Tokyo but only has 1500 points to defend after USO (1000 from Paris-Bercy) Medvedev would need to win everything if he wants to take over, and expect a huge breadown from Djokovic AND Tstisipas.

Tsitsipas is "only" 2500 points behind Djokovic in the ATP Race. He has more chances to be #1 than Medvedev. If Tsitsipas wins the USO and has good results in Toronto/Cincinnati, he will have a good chance.

(Assuming the points from 2019 for the cancelled events (Shanghaï/Beijing/Tokyo/Basel) are dropping).

 

[N01E]

Djokovic will be at 11'113 before the USO and Medvedev can get to 10'620, but he is also defending 1k at Cincy and 1,2k at USO (compared to Novak's 180). The main threat to #1 right now is Stefanos (unfortunately) 2,4k in the race behind Novak and 1.6k in front of Medvedev. Daniil had his chances, but he's pretty much screwed right now. If we were to get a repeat of 2019 results (with Toronto win) then he'd get the #1 after Tokyo simply because of Novak dropping 500 there, but would lose it the next week after Shanghai. It's rather unlikely at the moment and if he would want to keep it then winning everything after USO is a must.

 

[James P]

Toronto is the last tournament with this system. Medvedev dropped 300 points (half from his final in 2019). If he loses in final he will regain these 300 points.

Yes, if Medvedev wins Canada the gap will be 1493 points.
All points are dropping in Cincinnati and both Djokovic/Medvedev are "defending champions". Djokovic won last year, Medvedev lost to Bautista in 2020 but kept his 1000 points from 2019. That means both players are dropping 1000 points in Cincinnati. So even if Medvedev wins both Toronto and Cincinnati, the difference will be 493 points.

Medvedev lost in Final in USO 2019 (1200 points), Djokovic has 180 points from his 4th round in 2019. In brief, Medvedev can be #1 IF
1) He wins Toronto, Cincinnati AND USO.
2) Djokovic loses in NY in QF or before the QF.

Even if all this happens (unlikely but possible), Medvedev would need to win everything until the end of the year if he wants to stay #1. He is defending 1000 points in Shanghaï (but he will lose them as the event has been cancelled), 250 in St-Petersbourg, 1000 in Paris and 1500 in the WTF. Djokovic will drop the 500 points from Tokyo but only has 1500 points to defend after USO (1000 from Paris-Bercy) Medvedev would need to win everything if he wants to take over, and expect a huge breadown from Djokovic AND Tstisipas.

Tsitsipas is "only" 2500 points behind Djokovic in the ATP Race. He has more chances to be #1 than Medvedev. If Tsitsipas wins the USO and has good results in Toronto/Cincinnati, he will have a good chance.

Yeah, this sounds right to me.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Why is Novak defending even a single point in USopen? They screwed him royally last year. Afaik, he has 0 pts to defend. Due to default he doesn't get half pts of 2019 as well.

 

[BGod]

It's pretty messed Medvedev could theoretically become #1 with just 1 Slam while Novak holds 3. Or be YE #1 without a Slam if Novak loses by QF at USO. Dark times indeed.

Just for the LULZ how in the hell would ATP post YE #1 with someone else with Novak having Calendar Slam?

Tsitsipas has a legit chance with USO Final and winning WTF.

 

[Texas Tennis Fan]

The points don't lie.

Djokovic is playing a lot fewer tournaments and so that may be the result, albeit unlikely.

 

[nolefam_2024]

People think djokovic will end the year at us open. I disagree. He is favorite at USOpen and he will want to win the tour final as well. Next gen have won tour final 3 year running. Time to put stop to that hopefully.

 

[BGod]

People think djokovic will end the year at us open. I disagree. He is favorite at USOpen and he will want to win the tour final as well. Next gen have won tour final 3 year running. Time to put stop to that hopefully.

Well I mean he's only played two Masters with 2 remaining (IW-PA) and played both Belgrade tournaments. He's currently tied with Sampras for YE and I'm sure he'll pay attention but if he completely the Calendar I expect him to focus on AO so might just play Vienna & WTF to not tire out.

 

[tudwell]

It's pretty messed Medvedev could theoretically become #1 with just 1 Slam while Novak holds 3. Or be YE #1 without a Slam if Novak loses by QF at USO. Dark times indeed.

Well, theoretically, Novak would have been number one even if he'd lost the 2011 Wimbledon final. Which meant Nadal would be the holder of 3 slams (2010 USO, 2011 FO and W) to Novak's 1 (2011 AO).

Thanks for all the responses everyone! I was kinda hoping Med might be able to sneak into the top spot for a couple weeks after Cincy before likely losing it again after the US Open, but that doesn't seem possible.

 

[daphne]

 

[onyxrose81]

The points don't lie.

Djokovic is playing a lot fewer tournaments and so that may be the result, albeit unlikely.

Yeah I’ve seen people say how unfair it would be. It would be hilarious but not unfair. It’s Math. There are other tournaments that give points throughout the year. Djokovic isn’t playing many of them. Slam points can only count for so much. This was always a possibility once the Big 3 started aging.

 

[James P]

Medvedev has never been closer to #1 than he is right now. A win tomorrow puts him within 1,000 points for the first time in his career. Two wins (Cincinnati title) will put him just under 500 points away from #1. It's still highly unlikely, but he's putting himself in decent position. Gonna have to win the USO, though.

 

[Ace of Aces]

Medvedev has never been closer to #1 than he is right now. A win tomorrow puts him within 1,000 points for the first time in his career. Two wins (Cincinnati title) will put him just under 500 points away from #1. It's still highly unlikely, but he's putting himself in decent position. Gonna have to win the USO, though.

Hope we see it in NY. Djokovic in a situation to either achieve the GYCS or lose the top spot in the world to Med would be one of the more exciting set-ups in a while.

 

[James P]

Hope we see it in NY. Djokovic in a situation to either achieve the GYCS or lose the top spot in the world to Med would be one of the more exciting set-ups in a while.

It's a bit of Daniil's hands because Djokovic is barely defending points at the USO. In a scenario where Medvedev wins Cincinnati and the USO, Djokovic could still retain #1 by making at least the SFs, I believe. So he'd have to lose in the QFs for that to pan out for Daniil.

 

[Milanez82]

Well Medvedev drops 640 points in Cincy so Novak now with 1133 lead and once Us Open points drop, Novak will have almost 2200 more points meaning his no 1 ranking is at least safe until Indian Wells no matter how he does

 

[BGod]

It's over for both Med & Tsitsipas now.

Med only had a chance with the USO Triple Crown (done only 3 times) and Tsitsipas had a chance with his SF in Canada and winning Cincy along with at least a Final at USO.

Both are done now. Indian Wells and Paris (where Novak will likely show) are not enough to overtake Novak even if he flubs in New York. 7th YE guaranteed.

 

[James P]

It's over for both Med & Tsitsipas now.

Med only had a chance with the USO Triple Crown (done only 3 times) and Tsitsipas had a chance with his SF in Canada and winning Cincy along with at least a Final at USO.

Both are done now. Indian Wells and Paris (where Novak will likely show) are not enough to overtake Novak even if he flubs in New York. 7th YE guaranteed.

I agree. Highly unlikely that we'll see another #1 until 2022 now. It was already unlikely, but now it's near impossible.

 

[BGod]

I agree. Highly unlikely that we'll see another #1 until 2022 now. It was already unlikely, but now it's near impossible.

The point cocktail for Med & Tsit sucks even more as a heap of those came in the first half of the season. So again Novak would be looking at losing #1 after Wimbledon at the earliest. Unless of course Tsitsipas or Med took those first 2 Slams but EVEN THEN!

 

[James P]

The point cocktail for Med & Tsit sucks even more as a heap of those came in the first half of the season. So again Novak would be looking at losing #1 after Wimbledon at the earliest. Unless of course Tsitsipas or Med took those first 2 Slams but EVEN THEN!

Really depends how well they keep pace with him through the second half of 2021. One of them wins the USO, for instance, plus there are 2 more masters and the ATP Finals to win, as well. Lots of points yet. Then the near impossible task of beating Djokovic at the AO in 2022. Yeah, it'll be hard to dethrone him even into 2022.

 

[Texas Tennis Fan]

It is definitely possible, for someone to beat out Djokovic by playing and winning more tournaments. The problems is that several young players are close to each other in level and so they split points making it hard to overcome Djokovic's slam wins. It looks more and more like Federer will win no more slams and Nadal, unless having another renaissance, will only be able to compete for the FO. That means that for the next 3 years or so, Djokovic will be the favorite or co-favorite for 3/4 slams if not 4/4.

I know people think I was crazy when I predicted Djokovic was going to have 500 weeks at No. 1, but it is not that far fetched. He will have 375 or so around the FO.

 

[BGod]

Really depends how well they keep pace with him through the second half of 2021. One of them wins the USO, for instance, plus there are 2 more masters and the ATP Finals to win, as well. Lots of points yet. Then the near impossible task of beating Djokovic at the AO in 2022. Yeah, it'll be hard to dethrone him even into 2022.

It's just asking too much for Murray like steamroll finish.

I think IF Novak completes the Calendar Slam he'll be more likely to lose AO and then who the hell knows might only win Wimbledon in 22. But I think that would create a 2012 scenario where he keeps his #1 rank until late where the USO changes the dynamic and gives it to whomever wins. A Zverev-Med-Tsit-Novak split is possible barring Nadal's resurgence.

 

[itrium84]

What would theoretical scenario be, for Novak to lose no1 by the end of the year?

 

[pj80]

What would theoretical scenario be, for Novak to lose no1 by the end of the year?

He will likely not play after USO and Med has a lot to defend at USO and after. So Tsits has prolly better shot at over taking him than Med....but I could be wrong. Maybe zverev can put himself in the contention for number 1? But he is roughly 3k points behind if he wins Cincy

 

[One]

What would theoretical scenario be, for Novak to lose no1 by the end of the year?

Look at the race. Novak will prolly skip IW, and Tsitsi is less than 2k points behind. So it can be close if Novak doesnt win USO.

 

[Texas Tennis Fan]

He will likely not play after USO and Med has a lot to defend at USO and after. So Tsits has prolly better shot at over taking him than Med....but I could be wrong. Maybe zverev can put himself in the contention for number 1? But he is roughly 3k points behind if he wins Cincy

It clearly depends on the USO which is a major point total and is the one slam Djokovic has not won a lot of points at the last two times it was played (injury and DQ). If Djokovic can get to the final or win, then he will be in the driver's seat as he will have beaten out Medvedev in points form the US Open and Medvedev loses 1000 points at Shanghai and 1,500 at the YECs. Tsitsipas just doesn't seem as consistent on hard courts and will have trouble accumulating enough points if Djokovic does well at the USO. I don't see Djokovic completely shutting down after the US Open unless he has an almost insurmountable lead. Point-wise he could gain a lot at Indian Wells, but I think it is more likely he plays Paris and then YECs.

 

[TripleATeam]

What would theoretical scenario be, for Novak to lose no1 by the end of the year?

Lose #1 by end of year or at? Djokovic is dropping 3350 points during the rest of the year. Most notable right now is Paris. By November 1 he will have dropped all but 400 of those points (2950). Stef is dropping 1380 by the same time, meaning Djokovic's current lead whittles down to 1193 points. If Stefanos can outperform Novak by 1193 points before the ATP Finals, Tsitsipas will hit #1. Novak can take it back (if it happens) with a better performance (than 400 points) in Turin.

Lose YE#1? There's many possibilities where that happens, to be honest. But it does rely on a sudden run of form for someone while everyone else sucks. Let's say Tsitsipas for sake of argument. Djokovic leads the Race by 1835 points. Let's even assume that Djokovic wins the USO (which isn't guaranteed, but I want to show how easy it could be for Tsitsipas to take YE#1 if Djokovic doesn't win it), while Tsitsipas gets the final (+800 gap to Djokovic, bringing it up to 2635).

Let's say Djokovic doesn't play anything lower than 1000, Tsitsipas plays anything realistic. Tsitsipas would play a September 250, IW, Vienna, Paris, ATP Finals. Djokovic would play just IW, Paris, ATP Finals. Assume Djokovic gets QFs in everything else (loss in SF at ATP Finals). 760 points for him, gap is up to 3395. If Tsitsipas plays everything and wins, he needs to be near-perfect (2-3 losses or less) to beat that. So even in CYGS, it's not assured, but all but.

Other scenarios:

Spoiler: Djokovic doesn't win USO, Tsitsipas does

Best case scenario in this situation? Djokovic got a final. Race gap is down to 1035. There's so many ways for Tsitsipas to close that gap, I can't list them all. It would be practically 50-50 on who ends as YE#1 in that situation, assuming Djokovic is willing to fight for it.

Spoiler: Djokovic doesn't win USO, neither does Tsitsipas

Say Djokovic loses in SF to Medvedev, Medvedev beats Tsitsipas in final -> Gap is down to 1355. I'd give Djokovic 60-40 chances on being #1 in that situation, barring injury.

Spoiler: Neither plays USO or both lose in same round

USO is a wash, gap is 1835. Again assuming Djokovic can perform at least 760 points in the back end of the season, that means the minimum Stefanos could be looking to beat is 2595. That's either winning the ATP finals again (plus good results elsewhere), or winning at least one of the masters, which also assumes that Medvedev is (for some reason) not a threat. 80-20 to Djokovic.

Any of these YE#1 scenarios can extend to Medvedev, but you'd need to add about 1000 points to the gap to adjust for Medvedev's lack of points. As for the potential snagging of #1 during any point this year? Unlikely unless Djokovic loses the USO and Medvedev wins it, but he'd be aiming for right after Indian Wells. It would necessitate winning the USO and Indian Wells though.