Medvedev's Play for #1

[Visionary]

Let's hope that Meddy's left hand that he's just hurt on the camera is fine for the USO.

 

[itrium84]

Lose #1 by end of year or at? Djokovic is dropping 3350 points during the rest of the year. Most notable right now is Paris. By November 1 he will have dropped all but 400 of those points (2950). Stef is dropping 1380 by the same time, meaning Djokovic's current lead whittles down to 1193 points. If Stefanos can outperform Novak by 1193 points before the ATP Finals, Tsitsipas will hit #1. Novak can take it back (if it happens) with a better performance (than 400 points) in Turin.

Lose YE#1? There's many possibilities where that happens, to be honest. But it does rely on a sudden run of form for someone while everyone else sucks. Let's say Tsitsipas for sake of argument. Djokovic leads the Race by 1835 points. Let's even assume that Djokovic wins the USO (which isn't guaranteed, but I want to show how easy it could be for Tsitsipas to take YE#1 if Djokovic doesn't win it), while Tsitsipas gets the final (+800 gap to Djokovic, bringing it up to 2635).

Let's say Djokovic doesn't play anything lower than 1000, Tsitsipas plays anything realistic. Tsitsipas would play a September 250, IW, Vienna, Paris, ATP Finals. Djokovic would play just IW, Paris, ATP Finals. Assume Djokovic gets QFs in everything else (loss in SF at ATP Finals). 760 points for him, gap is up to 3395. If Tsitsipas plays everything and wins, he needs to be near-perfect (2-3 losses or less) to beat that. So even in CYGS, it's not assured, but all but.

Other scenarios:

Spoiler: Djokovic doesn't win USO, Tsitsipas does

Best case scenario in this situation? Djokovic got a final. Race gap is down to 1035. There's so many ways for Tsitsipas to close that gap, I can't list them all. It would be practically 50-50 on who ends as YE#1 in that situation, assuming Djokovic is willing to fight for it.

Spoiler: Djokovic doesn't win USO, neither does Tsitsipas

Say Djokovic loses in SF to Medvedev, Medvedev beats Tsitsipas in final -> Gap is down to 1355. I'd give Djokovic 60-40 chances on being #1 in that situation, barring injury.

Spoiler: Neither plays USO or both lose in same round

USO is a wash, gap is 1835. Again assuming Djokovic can perform at least 760 points in the back end of the season, that means the minimum Stefanos could be looking to beat is 2595. That's either winning the ATP finals again (plus good results elsewhere), or winning at least one of the masters, which also assumes that Medvedev is (for some reason) not a threat. 80-20 to Djokovic.

Any of these YE#1 scenarios can extend to Medvedev, but you'd need to add about 1000 points to the gap to adjust for Medvedev's lack of points. As for the potential snagging of #1 during any point this year? Unlikely unless Djokovic loses the USO and Medvedev wins it, but he'd be aiming for right after Indian Wells. It would necessitate winning the USO and Indian Wells though.

Thank you so much for this elaborate answer, I was just too lazy to investigate myself. Novak is still far away from YEn1, he must go deep in all big tournaments and even that doesn't guarantee his 7th in case of Tsitsy making crazy run like Med did last year.

 

[James P]

Winning the ATP Race does not imply taking #1 ATP Ranking this year, so there's more to it than just coming up with a scenario where Tsitsipas (or Medvedev) have more Race points by season's end. We are still stuck with this crappy covid ranking system until next year's Roger's Cup.

 

[TripleATeam]

Winning the ATP Race does not imply taking #1 ATP Ranking this year, so there's more to it than just coming up with a scenario where Tsitsipas (or Medvedev) have more Race points by season's end. We are still stuck with this crappy covid ranking system until next year's Roger's Cup.

Is that so? I thought YE#1 was determined by this year's race? Are you sure?

A few articles disagree, they claim the Race will determine YE#1, regardless of rankings.

 

[James P]

Is that so? I thought YE#1 was determined by this year's race? Are you sure?

We're talking about the play for #1 ranking here. There's a possibility that YE#1 is awarded to the #2 ranking because of their Race positioning (I actually just don't know if that's how it will play out), but you still wouldn't be ranked #1 by being #1 in the ATP Race. Not necessarily.

 

[TripleATeam]

We're talking about the play for #1 ranking here. There's a possibility that YE#1 is awarded to the #2 ranking because of their Race positioning (I actually just don't know if that's how it will play out), but you still wouldn't be ranked #1 by being #1 in the ATP Race. Not necessarily.

The question I was answering was asking about YE#1 though. I answered both the YE and instantaneous #1 questions, if you see I measured points dropped for week-by-week rankings and YE by Race.

 

[TripleATeam]

Well, it happened. Almost exactly a year later.

 

[mike danny]

Well, it happened. Almost exactly a year later.

Don't consider him the best player in the world by any stretch.

 

[TripleATeam]

Don't consider him the best player in the world by any stretch.

Yeah, me neither. Not the way I wanted it to happen. Maybe if Novak still had some AO points and then lost it, but the fact Novak's missing a major's worth of points make it a little less in my eyes. Still, he did it.

 

[mike danny]

Yeah, me neither. Not the way I wanted it to happen. Maybe if Novak still had some AO points and then lost it, but the fact Novak's missing a major's worth of points make it a little less in my eyes. Still, he did it.

Yeah, but not really by winning. He's lost his last tournaments that he's played.

And turns out he's not even the best HC player in the world.

 

[Mainad]

When was the last time a player reached the #1 ranking without already winning any titles that season?

 

[Sabrina]

When was the last time a player reached the #1 ranking without already winning any titles that season?

Maybe in early 2018 when Rafa regained no.1 from Federer (he didn't win a title until clay season that year)?