Meles
Bionic Poster
Sorry yet to crack the code on grass because of number of data points likely takes about a three year window. The eye test reigns on grass.
I've been quite enamored of Ultimate Tennis Statists Recent Elo ratings (weighted to last three months or so) which have been fairly effective at identifying the top players at a given moment of time, but it does have issues. Mainly the giant upset of a top player by a lesser player. My favorite point/games stat is points won, but it can get quite off if a player has had easier opponents by luck of the draw. No way to combine an Elo rating of 2500 points with 56% points won.
But why not rankings? This is just a simple average, but I feel it is a very effective tool. Take a look at the current rankings:
Name Hard Rank Average Recent Elo Rank Points Rank
Rafael Nadal 1 2 1 2 - Nadal gets #1 because Recent Elo is higher than Djokovic
Novak Djokovic 2 2 2 1
Roger Federer 3 3 3 3
Daniil Medvedev 4 4 4 4
Denis Shapovalov 5 10 9 11 - Shapo most impressive, but notice his average shows a big gap with the top 4
Kevin Anderson 6 11 8 14 - Anderson a thorn in Recent Elo's side, but at least his points won has his average down
Alexander Zverev 7 12 10 13
Alex De Minaur 8 12 17 6 - boosted by points won so we'll see if he can come good by clay season next year
Dominic Thiem 9 12 5 19
Kei Nishikori 10 13 15 10
Stefanos Tsitsipas 11 13 6 20 - Tsitsipas hurt by points performance
Jo Wilfried Tsonga 12 14 13 15
Gael Monfils 13 14 21 7 - Clownfils Recent Elo brings him down
Andrey Rublev 14 15 12 18
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 15 16 19 12
Roberto Bautista Agut 16 16 22 9
Stan Wawrinka 17 17 11 22
Pablo Carreno Busta 18 17 16 17
Grigor Dimitrov 19 17 18 16
Milos Raonic 20 17 26 8
Matteo Berrettini 21 21 7 35 - @Red Rick and @tennis_pro see Matteo put in his place by Melesian Science
John Isner 22 22 23 21
David Goffin 23 23 14 31 - Goffin just has never seemed to be at 14 and points stats bring him down like Matteo
Filip Krajinovic 24 26 27 25
Jan Lennard Struff 25 27 30 24
Nick Kyrgios 26 30 20 39
Andy Murray 27 31 32 29
Adrian Mannarino 28 34 34 33
Karen Khachanov 29 36 25 46
Hubert Hurkacz 30 37 38 36
Marin Cilic 31 38 28 47
Reilly Opelka 32 40 36 44
Tomas Berdych 33 40 52 28
Sam Querrey 34 42 29 54
Felix Auger Aliassime 35 43 37 48 -- this shows FAA is massively over ranked at least on hard courts
Fernando Verdasco 36 43 55 30
Jeremy Chardy 37 43 31 55
Egor Gerasimov 38 44 54 34
Nikoloz Basilashvili 39 46 39 52
Miomir Kecmanovic 40 48 64 32
John Millman 41 49 47 50
Borna Coric 42 50 50 49
Daniel Evans 43 51 58 43
Jordan Thompson 44 51 59 42
Radu Albot 45 53 49 56
Fabio Fognini 46 54 24 84
Lucas Pouille 47 55 35 75
Aljaz Bedene 48 56 43 68
Ugo Humbert 49 56 66 45
Richard Gasquet 50 56 45 67
Taylor Harry Fritz 51 58 42 74
Yoshihito Nishioka 52 59 44 73
Steve Johnson 53 60 62 58
Frances Tiafoe 54 61 57 64
Guido Pella 55 61 41 81
Gilles Simon 56 61 63 59
Philipp Kohlschreiber 57 61 71 51
Jannik Sinner 58 64 89 38
Andreas Seppi 59 66 68 63
Christian Garin 60 67 46 88
Cameron Norrie 61 68 75 61
Marton Fucsovics 62 69 77 60
Mikhail Kukushkin 63 69 51 87
Kyle Edmund 64 69 56 82
Dominik Koepfer 65 72 72 71
Vasek Pospisil 66 73 80 65
Hyeon Chung 67 73 48 98
Benoit Paire 68 74 53 94
Joao Sousa 69 77 67 86
Roberto Carballes Baena 70 82 73 90
Leonardo Mayer 71 82 78 85
Alexei Popyrin 72 86 76 95
Gregoire Barrere 73 88 86 89
Ricardas Berankis 74 95 91 99
Overall this just looks betterer than any single measure I've seen to date. I combine top 100 Recent Elo and top 100 Hard Court points won with this ranking. If player is not in top 100 of either they get filtered out, so just 74. Clay is next, but not so many surprises with clay.
@Gary Duane and @falstaff78 approved
I've been quite enamored of Ultimate Tennis Statists Recent Elo ratings (weighted to last three months or so) which have been fairly effective at identifying the top players at a given moment of time, but it does have issues. Mainly the giant upset of a top player by a lesser player. My favorite point/games stat is points won, but it can get quite off if a player has had easier opponents by luck of the draw. No way to combine an Elo rating of 2500 points with 56% points won.
Name Hard Rank Average Recent Elo Rank Points Rank
Rafael Nadal 1 2 1 2 - Nadal gets #1 because Recent Elo is higher than Djokovic
Novak Djokovic 2 2 2 1
Roger Federer 3 3 3 3
Daniil Medvedev 4 4 4 4
Denis Shapovalov 5 10 9 11 - Shapo most impressive, but notice his average shows a big gap with the top 4
Kevin Anderson 6 11 8 14 - Anderson a thorn in Recent Elo's side, but at least his points won has his average down
Alexander Zverev 7 12 10 13
Alex De Minaur 8 12 17 6 - boosted by points won so we'll see if he can come good by clay season next year
Dominic Thiem 9 12 5 19
Kei Nishikori 10 13 15 10
Stefanos Tsitsipas 11 13 6 20 - Tsitsipas hurt by points performance
Jo Wilfried Tsonga 12 14 13 15
Gael Monfils 13 14 21 7 - Clownfils Recent Elo brings him down
Andrey Rublev 14 15 12 18
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 15 16 19 12
Roberto Bautista Agut 16 16 22 9
Stan Wawrinka 17 17 11 22
Pablo Carreno Busta 18 17 16 17
Grigor Dimitrov 19 17 18 16
Milos Raonic 20 17 26 8
Matteo Berrettini 21 21 7 35 - @Red Rick and @tennis_pro see Matteo put in his place by Melesian Science
John Isner 22 22 23 21
David Goffin 23 23 14 31 - Goffin just has never seemed to be at 14 and points stats bring him down like Matteo
Filip Krajinovic 24 26 27 25
Jan Lennard Struff 25 27 30 24
Nick Kyrgios 26 30 20 39
Andy Murray 27 31 32 29
Adrian Mannarino 28 34 34 33
Karen Khachanov 29 36 25 46
Hubert Hurkacz 30 37 38 36
Marin Cilic 31 38 28 47
Reilly Opelka 32 40 36 44
Tomas Berdych 33 40 52 28
Sam Querrey 34 42 29 54
Felix Auger Aliassime 35 43 37 48 -- this shows FAA is massively over ranked at least on hard courts
Fernando Verdasco 36 43 55 30
Jeremy Chardy 37 43 31 55
Egor Gerasimov 38 44 54 34
Nikoloz Basilashvili 39 46 39 52
Miomir Kecmanovic 40 48 64 32
John Millman 41 49 47 50
Borna Coric 42 50 50 49
Daniel Evans 43 51 58 43
Jordan Thompson 44 51 59 42
Radu Albot 45 53 49 56
Fabio Fognini 46 54 24 84
Lucas Pouille 47 55 35 75
Aljaz Bedene 48 56 43 68
Ugo Humbert 49 56 66 45
Richard Gasquet 50 56 45 67
Taylor Harry Fritz 51 58 42 74
Yoshihito Nishioka 52 59 44 73
Steve Johnson 53 60 62 58
Frances Tiafoe 54 61 57 64
Guido Pella 55 61 41 81
Gilles Simon 56 61 63 59
Philipp Kohlschreiber 57 61 71 51
Jannik Sinner 58 64 89 38
Andreas Seppi 59 66 68 63
Christian Garin 60 67 46 88
Cameron Norrie 61 68 75 61
Marton Fucsovics 62 69 77 60
Mikhail Kukushkin 63 69 51 87
Kyle Edmund 64 69 56 82
Dominik Koepfer 65 72 72 71
Vasek Pospisil 66 73 80 65
Hyeon Chung 67 73 48 98
Benoit Paire 68 74 53 94
Joao Sousa 69 77 67 86
Roberto Carballes Baena 70 82 73 90
Leonardo Mayer 71 82 78 85
Alexei Popyrin 72 86 76 95
Gregoire Barrere 73 88 86 89
Ricardas Berankis 74 95 91 99
Overall this just looks betterer than any single measure I've seen to date. I combine top 100 Recent Elo and top 100 Hard Court points won with this ranking. If player is not in top 100 of either they get filtered out, so just 74. Clay is next, but not so many surprises with clay.
@Gary Duane and @falstaff78 approved