Melesian Science Labs New Hard Court and Clay Court Rankings

Meles

Bionic Poster
Sorry yet to crack the code on grass because of number of data points likely takes about a three year window. The eye test reigns on grass.;)

I've been quite enamored of Ultimate Tennis Statists Recent Elo ratings (weighted to last three months or so) which have been fairly effective at identifying the top players at a given moment of time, but it does have issues. Mainly the giant upset of a top player by a lesser player. My favorite point/games stat is points won, but it can get quite off if a player has had easier opponents by luck of the draw. No way to combine an Elo rating of 2500 points with 56% points won.:sick: But why not rankings? This is just a simple average, but I feel it is a very effective tool. Take a look at the current rankings:
Name Hard Rank Average Recent Elo Rank Points Rank
Rafael Nadal 1 2 1 2 - Nadal gets #1 because Recent Elo is higher than Djokovic
Novak Djokovic 2 2 2 1
Roger Federer 3 3 3 3
Daniil Medvedev 4 4 4 4
Denis Shapovalov 5 10 9 11 - Shapo most impressive, but notice his average shows a big gap with the top 4
Kevin Anderson 6 11 8 14 - Anderson a thorn in Recent Elo's side, but at least his points won has his average down
Alexander Zverev 7 12 10 13
Alex De Minaur 8 12 17 6 - boosted by points won so we'll see if he can come good by clay season next year
Dominic Thiem 9 12 5 19
Kei Nishikori 10 13 15 10
Stefanos Tsitsipas 11 13 6 20 - Tsitsipas hurt by points performance
Jo Wilfried Tsonga 12 14 13 15
Gael Monfils 13 14 21 7 - Clownfils Recent Elo brings him down
Andrey Rublev 14 15 12 18
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 15 16 19 12
Roberto Bautista Agut 16 16 22 9
Stan Wawrinka 17 17 11 22
Pablo Carreno Busta 18 17 16 17
Grigor Dimitrov 19 17 18 16
Milos Raonic 20 17 26 8
Matteo Berrettini 21 21 7 35 - @Red Rick and @tennis_pro see Matteo put in his place by Melesian Science;)
John Isner 22 22 23 21
David Goffin 23 23 14 31 - Goffin just has never seemed to be at 14 and points stats bring him down like Matteo
Filip Krajinovic 24 26 27 25
Jan Lennard Struff 25 27 30 24
Nick Kyrgios 26 30 20 39
Andy Murray 27 31 32 29
Adrian Mannarino 28 34 34 33
Karen Khachanov 29 36 25 46
Hubert Hurkacz 30 37 38 36
Marin Cilic 31 38 28 47
Reilly Opelka 32 40 36 44
Tomas Berdych 33 40 52 28
Sam Querrey 34 42 29 54
Felix Auger Aliassime 35 43 37 48 -- this shows FAA is massively over ranked at least on hard courts
Fernando Verdasco 36 43 55 30
Jeremy Chardy 37 43 31 55
Egor Gerasimov 38 44 54 34
Nikoloz Basilashvili 39 46 39 52
Miomir Kecmanovic 40 48 64 32
John Millman 41 49 47 50
Borna Coric 42 50 50 49
Daniel Evans 43 51 58 43
Jordan Thompson 44 51 59 42
Radu Albot 45 53 49 56
Fabio Fognini 46 54 24 84
Lucas Pouille 47 55 35 75
Aljaz Bedene 48 56 43 68
Ugo Humbert 49 56 66 45
Richard Gasquet 50 56 45 67
Taylor Harry Fritz 51 58 42 74
Yoshihito Nishioka 52 59 44 73
Steve Johnson 53 60 62 58
Frances Tiafoe 54 61 57 64
Guido Pella 55 61 41 81
Gilles Simon 56 61 63 59
Philipp Kohlschreiber 57 61 71 51
Jannik Sinner 58 64 89 38
Andreas Seppi 59 66 68 63
Christian Garin 60 67 46 88
Cameron Norrie 61 68 75 61
Marton Fucsovics 62 69 77 60
Mikhail Kukushkin 63 69 51 87
Kyle Edmund 64 69 56 82
Dominik Koepfer 65 72 72 71
Vasek Pospisil 66 73 80 65
Hyeon Chung 67 73 48 98
Benoit Paire 68 74 53 94
Joao Sousa 69 77 67 86
Roberto Carballes Baena 70 82 73 90
Leonardo Mayer 71 82 78 85
Alexei Popyrin 72 86 76 95
Gregoire Barrere 73 88 86 89
Ricardas Berankis 74 95 91 99

Overall this just looks betterer than any single measure I've seen to date. I combine top 100 Recent Elo and top 100 Hard Court points won with this ranking. If player is not in top 100 of either they get filtered out, so just 74. Clay is next, but not so many surprises with clay.
@Gary Duane and @falstaff78 approved
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Clay rankings. Here I take a snap shot of Recent Elo at completion of Roland Garros because its three month heavily weighted window mainly includes clay:
Name Clay Rank Average Elo Rank Clay Points Rank
Rafael Nadal 1 1 1 1
Novak Djokovic 2 2 2 2
Roger Federer 3 3 3 3
Dominic Thiem 4 4 4 4
Stefanos Tsitsipas 5 6 6 5
Juan Martin Del Potro 6 8 7 9
Gael Monfils 7 11 13 8 - quite high, but he has the points
Alexander Zverev 8 15 9 20
Filip Krajinovic 9 17 18 16
Benoit Paire 10 17 22 12
Borna Coric 11 18 17 18
Matteo Berrettini 12 18 30 6 - here Berrettini is helped by points won
Kei Nishikori 13 19 8 29
Jan Lennard Struff 14 19 14 23
Stan Wawrinka 15 21 10 31 - Stan is always an anomoly
Casper Ruud 16 22 36 7 - Ruud on the radar due to his points won
Daniil Medvedev 17 23 12 34- Mad Lad put in his place on clay, his worst surface
Roberto Bautista Agut 18 24 21 26
Marin Cilic 19 24 23 25
Guido Pella 20 24 35 13
Fabio Fognini 21 25 11 39
David Goffin 22 26 25 27
Pablo Cuevas 23 27 43 11
Sam Querrey 24 30 50 10
Karen Khachanov 25 31 16 46
Christian Garin 26 32 28 36
Dusan Lajovic 27 33 42 24
David Ferrer 28 33 49 17
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 29 34 24 43
Philipp Kohlschreiber 30 35 31 38
Jo Wilfried Tsonga 31 35 32 37
Felix Auger Aliassime 32 37 26 47 - quite a few finals on clay, but this shows FAA very lucky to be 11 in ATP race coming into Wimbledon
Juan Ignacio Londero 33 39 55 22
Andrey Rublev 34 39 62 15
Albert Ramos 35 39 64 14
Leonardo Mayer 36 41 40 42
Pierre Hugues Herbert 37 42 33 50
Grigor Dimitrov 38 42 34 49
Laslo Djere 39 43 41 44
Jordan Thompson 40 44 53 35
Nicolas Jarry 41 45 57 32
Fernando Verdasco 42 48 27 69
Radu Albot 43 50 37 62
Roberto Carballes Baena 44 51 71 30
Nicolas Mahut 45 53 72 33
Salvatore Caruso 46 53 86 19
Pablo Carreno Busta 47 55 54 55
Yoshihito Nishioka 48 55 56 53
Taylor Harry Fritz 49 55 39 71
Nikoloz Basilashvili 50 56 44 67
Marton Fucsovics 51 57 51 63
Lorenzo Sonego 52 62 65 58
Frances Tiafoe 53 63 45 80
Hubert Hurkacz 54 63 47 78
Gilles Simon 55 63 73 52
Federico Delbonis 56 63 67 59
Jaume Munar 57 63 78 48
Richard Gasquet 58 64 52 76
John Millman 59 66 76 56
Marco Cecchinato 60 67 61 72
Aljaz Bedene 61 67 82 51
Jeremy Chardy 62 67 60 74
Martin Klizan 63 68 48 88
Henri Laaksonen 64 68 63 73
Damir Dzumhur 65 70 80 60
Lucas Pouille 66 71 59 82
Kyle Edmund 67 73 46 99
Hugo Dellien 68 75 84 65
Adrian Mannarino 69 77 74 79
Reilly Opelka 70 77 69 85
Corentin Moutet 71 80 98 61
Pablo Andujar 72 80 90 70
Joao Sousa 73 82 68 95
Mackenzie Mcdonald 74 83 66 100
Jiri Vesely 75 85 101 68
Feliciano Lopez 76 86 83 89
Steve Johnson 77 92 100 83
Robin Haase 78 93 92 94
Peter Gojowczyk 79 94 97 90

Unfortunately because of lack of matches these players completely filtered:
Kevin Anderson #N/A 5
John Isner #N/A 15
Milos Raonic #N/A 19
Nick Kyrgios #N/A 20
Tomas Berdych #N/A 29
Denis Shapovalov #N/A 38
Alex De Minaur #N/A 58
(the above all filtered because not enough points on clay, the number is Recent Elo post RG)
 
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Sport

G.O.A.T.
Clay rankings. Here I take a snap shot of Recent Elo at completion of Roland Garros because its three month heavily weighted window mainly includes clay:
Name Clay Rank Average Elo Rank Clay Points Rank
Rafael Nadal 1 1 1 1
Novak Djokovic 2 2 2 2
Roger Federer 3 3 3 3
Dominic Thiem 4 4 4 4
Excellent post, Meles. This is the reason why the unofficial ELO rating of Ultimate pro-Djokovic Tennis can never be as reliable as the officla ATP ranking.

Djokovic and Federer a higher recent ELO than Thiem on clay? Ridiculous. How many victories over Nadal do Federer and Djokovic have since 2017? How many RG semifinals and RG finals do they have since 2017? Thiem has more victories over Nadal and RG finals than Federerer and Djokovic together since 2017.

Thiem is the second best clay player in the world, with Djokovic being a close second. Federer a distant fourth.
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
Excellent post, Meles. This is the reason why the unofficial ELO rating of Ultimate pro-Djokovic Tennis can never be as reliable as the officla ATP ranking.

Djokovic and Federer a higher recent ELO than Thiem on clay? Ridiculous. How many victories over Nadal do Federer and Djokovic have since 2017? How many RG semifinals and RG finals do they have since 2017? Thiem has more victories over Nadal and RG finals than Federerer and Djokovic together since 2017.

Thiem is the second best clay player in the world, with Djokovic being a close second. Federer a distant fourth.
First and foremost, it's NOT ELO! It's just Elo, named after Arpad Elo.

But I'm curious as to how you believe Elo ratings are manipulated to favor Djokovic (or any other player). It's just numbers, dude. Specifically, Thiem's Elo is weighed down by several losses on clay to relatively weak players in the past 52 weeks. He's lost to Djere (Rio), Lajovic (MC), Verdasco (Rome), and Rublev (Hamburg). This is in addition to losses to Schwartzman (Buenos Aires), Djokovic (Madrid), and Nadal (RG).

It's also worth noting the closest the ATP has to a surface-based ranking is this:
https://www.atptour.com/en/performance-zone/win-loss-index/roll/clay/all/

cfaII7v.jpg


And there he is, behind Djokovic and Federer anyway
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Excellent post, Meles. This is the reason why the unofficial ELO rating of Ultimate pro-Djokovic Tennis can never be as reliable as the officla ATP ranking.

Djokovic and Federer a higher recent ELO than Thiem on clay? Ridiculous. How many victories over Nadal do Federer and Djokovic have since 2017? How many RG semifinals and RG finals do they have since 2017? Thiem has more victories over Nadal and RG finals than Federerer and Djokovic together since 2017.

Thiem is the second best clay player in the world, with Djokovic being a close second. Federer a distant fourth.
Well clay Elo has Thiem 3rd, but the reality is Thiem's clay points won in 2019 we're not spectacular. Federer hurt Thiem in Madrid taking him three sets. I'm more uncomfortable with Monfils....ok, you've convinced me. I shall alter my ranks for clay Elo. Hold on as I've got to build a data table with clay Elo post RG...no I shall do end of year to reflect July clay season in clay Elo.;)
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
First and foremost, it's NOT ELO! It's just Elo, named after Arpad Elo.

But I'm curious as to how you believe Elo ratings are manipulated to favor Djokovic (or any other player). It's just numbers, dude. Specifically, Thiem's Elo is weighed down by
1. Ultimate Tennis Statistics (a webpage made by Novak Djokovic fans) has a different Elo rating than the fans' webpage Tennis Abstract. So both of them cannot be correct, clearly one or both of them manipulate numbers.
2. Elo was originally conceived for chess, not tennis.
3. There is no such thing as an offical Elo rating for tennis, therefore there is no Elo in tennis. There is ATP ranking.
4. There is no way in hell Djokovic and specially Federer have a higher Elo rating than Thiem on clay.
 
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Sport

G.O.A.T.
First and foremost, it's NOT ELO! It's just Elo, named after Arpad Elo.

But I'm curious as to how you believe Elo ratings are manipulated to favor Djokovic (or any other player). It's just numbers, dude. Specifically, Thiem's Elo is weighed down by several losses on clay to relatively weak players in the past 52 weeks. He's lost to Djere (Rio), Lajovic (MC), Verdasco (Rome), and Rublev (Hamburg). This is in addition to losses to Schwartzman (Buenos Aires), Djokovic (Madrid), and Nadal (RG).

It's also worth noting the closest the ATP has to a surface-based ranking is this:
https://www.atptour.com/en/performance-zone/win-loss-index/roll/clay/all/

cfaII7v.jpg


And there he is, behind Djokovic and Federer anyway
And the 52 Weeks on clay ATP performance fails to distingish between the category of tournaments. Thiem has made two RG finals in a row, Federer zero. Grand Slam achievements >> achievements outside Slams. Even if we consider achievements in Masters 100, Federer has a higher % pèrcentage than Federer on clay because he plays far less than Thiem. Thiem has defeated multiple times Nadal these years, Federer was destroyed in 3 sets by Nadal at RG. Thiem also leads Djokovic 2-0 at RG since 2017. So based on current results (specially in Slams), Thiem is the second best clay player in the world.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
First and foremost, it's NOT ELO! It's just Elo, named after Arpad Elo.

But I'm curious as to how you believe Elo ratings are manipulated to favor Djokovic (or any other player). It's just numbers, dude. Specifically, Thiem's Elo is weighed down by several losses on clay to relatively weak players in the past 52 weeks. He's lost to Djere (Rio), Lajovic (MC), Verdasco (Rome), and Rublev (Hamburg). This is in addition to losses to Schwartzman (Buenos Aires), Djokovic (Madrid), and Nadal (RG).

It's also worth noting the closest the ATP has to a surface-based ranking is this:
https://www.atptour.com/en/performance-zone/win-loss-index/roll/clay/all/

cfaII7v.jpg


And there he is, behind Djokovic and Federer anyway
The only thing in Thiem's favor is RG stats over the years versus non-RG stats.

Thiem beat Schwartzman in final of Buenos Aires.;)

Believe me if all of these players started playing South American clay they would have more losses as well. Notes on each 2019 loss:
Djere (Rio) - Thiem was garbage in early 2019 and Djere did win Rio so not a hateful loss
Lajovic (MC) - a wind addled disaster and Federer probably loses if he played
Verdasco (Rome) - right after Federer/Djoko back to back in Madrid and also a poor matchup for Thiem much to my chagrin. Very damaging loss for Thiem as no more matches until RG.
Rublev (Hamburg) - Rublev is flying up the rankings and has some clay game so not sure this is a bad loss either
Schwartzman (Buenos Aires) - again Thiem won this
Djokovic (Madrid) - again post Fedopause
Nadal (RG) - heh he took a set this time. Plus I'm sure if Nadal had Nole for SF the tables probably would have been turned with Thiem vulturing a win over the survivor.;)

Unfortunately, clay results are affected by seeding so that is an advantage for Djokerer vs Thiem. My Thiem mission before clay season is to pass Federer by the end of Miami in rankings. Dropping off points until then Thiem is a scant 100 behind. Its a mighty task, but with Federer's light schedule Thiem has a ghost of a chance and that just gets him to top 4. 5-8 and he might have to play all three to win clay event.:sick:
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
1. Ultimate Tennis Statistics (a webpage made by Novak Djokovic fans) has a different Elo rating than the fan's webpage Tennis Abstract. So both of them cannot be correct, clearly one or both of them manipulate numbers.
2. Elo was originally conceived for chess, not tennis.
3. There is no such thing as an offical Elo rating for tennis, therefore there is no Elo in tennis. There is ATP ranking.
4. There is no way in hell Djokovic and specially Federer have a higher Elo rating than Thiem on clay.
LOL. There is no clay ranking is there? Elo is best tool and far superior to ranking. I'm using Recent Elo as half of this ranking. Suggest you check it out.;)
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
1. Ultimate Tennis Statistics (a webpage made by Novak Djokovic fans) has a different Elo rating than the fan's webpage Tennis Abstract. So both of them cannot be correct, clearly one or both of them manipulate numbers.
2. Elo was originally conceived for chess, not tennis.
3. There is no such thing as an offical Elo rating for tennis, therefore there is no Elo in tennis. There is ATP ranking.
4. There is no way in hell Djokovic and specially Federer have a higher Elo rating than Thiem on clay.
"In tennis, the Elo-based Universal Tennis Rating (UTR) rates players on a global scale, regardless of age, gender, or nationality. It is the official rating system of major organizations such as the Intercollegiate Tennis Association and World TeamTennis"
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
Excellent post, Meles. This is the reason why the unofficial ELO rating of Ultimate pro-Djokovic Tennis can never be as reliable as the officla ATP ranking.

Djokovic and Federer a higher recent ELO than Thiem on clay? Ridiculous. How many victories over Nadal do Federer and Djokovic have since 2017? How many RG semifinals and RG finals do they have since 2017? Thiem has more victories over Nadal and RG finals than Federerer and Djokovic together since 2017.

Thiem is the second best clay player in the world, with Djokovic being a close second. Federer a distant fourth.

Actually the current Elo ratings on clay for ultimate tennis stats are Nadal > Djokovic > Thiem > Federer. Federer is a distanct 4th according to them so not sure where Meles got these. As for Thiem being #2 well, he has yet to win a clay Masters which is shocking given his clay prowess while Djokovic won one this year, made the final of another and made the SF of RG. Djokovic had more clay points this year so him being at #2 shouldn't be argued against much.
 
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Lleytonstation

Talk Tennis Guru
And the 52 Weeks on clay ATP performance fails to distingish between the category of tournaments. Thiem has made two RG finals in a row, Federer zero. Grand Slam achievements >> achievements outside Slams. Even if we consider achievements in Masters 100, Federer has a higher % pèrcentage than Federer on clay because he plays far less than Thiem. Thiem has defeated multiple times Nadal these years, Federer was destroyed in 3 sets by Nadal at RG. Thiem also leads Djokovic 2-0 at RG since 2017. So based on current results (specially in Slams), Thiem is the second best clay player in the world.
Thiem has some poor losses on clay which brings it down. However you are right, without weight of tourney having an impact, it really is pointless.

I am not a fan of Thiem, but he brings his best tennis at RG. Elo does not show this. Rankings does.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
Thiem has some poor losses on clay which brings it down. However you are right, without weight of tourney having an impact, it really is pointless.

I am not a fan of Thiem, but he brings his best tennis at RG. Elo does not show this. Rankings does.

But he's only won one set against Nadal at RG. Lol. Look I like Thiem but he underperforms in the other big clay tournaments and gets beaten by players he has no business losing to. Making 2 RG finals and a couple of SFs is great but he has nothing to show for those wins against Rafa in clay except Barcelona. Federer and Djokovic cashed in everytime they beat him in Masters except maybe Djokovic at 2016 Rome.
 

Lleytonstation

Talk Tennis Guru
But he's only won one set against Nadal at RG. Lol. Look I like Thiem but he underperforms in the other big clay tournaments and gets beaten by players he has no business losing to. Making 2 RG finals and a couple of SFs is great but he has nothing to show for those wins against Rafa in clay exceot Barcelona. Federer and Djokovic cashed in everytime they beat him in Masters except maybe Djokovic at 2016 Rome.
It really is sad, and hard to condone never winning a clay masters.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
It really is sad, and hard to condone never winning a clay masters.
Flip it the other way: Sampras won the 1994 Italian Open and that doesn't mean he was a great clay court player. Fed was and remains a great clay court player, but he ran into one unmovable obstacle, which nobody has conquered yet on that surface. No shame in endlessly losing to Nadal on clay, the entire tour has similarly suffered.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Actually the current Elo ratings on clay for ultimate tennis stats are Nadal > Djokovic > Thiem > Federer. Federer is a distanct 4th according to them so not sure where Meles got these. As for Thiem being #2 well, he has yet to win a clay Masters which is shocking given his clay prowess while Djokovic won one this year, made the final of another and made the SF of RG. Djokovic had more clay points this year so him being at #2 shouldn't be argued against much.
I was using Recent Elo Ranking snap shot right after RG, but I was thinking of putting in Clay Elo instead. But I've changed my mind. I think Recent Elo Ranking right after RG is the best rating to use. Federer was in splendid form after Miami so I don't mind his rating being boosted. That's what I want a very accurate reflection of Federer 2019 and not some ancient clay matches from 2015/2016.

Go here:

Then switch to Recent Elo Ranking. Then put year on 2019. And then put date on June 9, 2019.

Perhaps @Mileta Cekovic of Ultimate Tennis will be kind enough to post the details of the rating system as I'm pulling my hair out trying to even get a copy of text and can't link to it directly.:cry:

In short I like using Recent Elo because its heavily rated to recent performance which at June 9 consists of the maximum amount of clay. Also at RG and Masters level clay, hard court performance (serve efficiency) is a big factor. The clay Elo formula leaves a lot to be desired in the case of Federer's return in 2017.

Murray currently has a hard court Elo Ranking of 6 which is loony tunes. Recent Elo pegs him much better at just within top 30. I just like using Recent Elo when the stars align. For grass we probably could use Recent Elo right after Miami. It works very well right now when well into hard court season and should be great through Miami.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Flip it the other way: Sampras won the 1994 Italian Open and that doesn't mean he was a great clay court player. Fed was and remains a great clay court player, but he ran into one unmovable obstacle, which nobody has conquered yet on that surface. No shame in endlessly losing to Nadal on clay, the entire tour has similarly suffered.
There was quite a bit of wind at RG which also hurt Federer much more than Nadal. Federer2019 was a huge force on clay.
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
And the 52 Weeks on clay ATP performance fails to distingish between the category of tournaments. Thiem has made two RG finals in a row, Federer zero. Grand Slam achievements >> achievements outside Slams. Even if we consider achievements in Masters 100, Federer has a higher % pèrcentage than Federer on clay because he plays far less than Thiem. Thiem has defeated multiple times Nadal these years, Federer was destroyed in 3 sets by Nadal at RG. Thiem also leads Djokovic 2-0 at RG since 2017. So based on current results (specially in Slams), Thiem is the second best clay player in the world.
LOL, I love how you say "grand Slam achievements" are all that matters, but then turn around and say "Thiem has defeated Nadal multiple times these years" when he's been consistently destroyed by Nadal in their RG matches. But if other tournaments also matter, then Djokovic has also beaten Thiem "multiple times" on the surface these years.

No, that's not how percentages work... If you play less then any losses get are also greatly magnified. By playing more, a loss has far less impact. If you are 4-1 and lose a match, you go from 80% to 67% (a 13% drop). But if you are 11-1 and lose a match, you go from 92% to 85% (a 7% drop).

But no matter how you slice it, 23-7 with losses to Djere, Lajovic, Verdasco, and Rublev is a very poor record for someone who's the apparent "second best" on a surface.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
I was using Recent Elo Ranking snap shot right after RG, but I was thinking of putting in Clay Elo instead. But I've changed my mind. I think Recent Elo Ranking right after RG is the best rating to use. Federer was in splendid form after Miami so I don't mind his rating being boosted. That's what I want a very accurate reflection of Federer 2019 and not some ancient clay matches from 2015/2016.

Go here:

Then switch to Recent Elo Ranking. Then put year on 2019. And then put date on June 9, 2019.

Perhaps @Mileta Cekovic of Ultimate Tennis will be kind enough to post the details of the rating system as I'm pulling my hair out trying to even get a copy of text and can't link to it directly.:cry:

In short I like using Recent Elo because its heavily rated to recent performance which at June 9 consists of the maximum amount of clay. Also at RG and Masters level clay, hard court performance (serve efficiency) is a big factor. The clay Elo formula leaves a lot to be desired in the case of Federer's return in 2017.

Murray currently has a hard court Elo Ranking of 6 which is loony tunes. Recent Elo pegs him much better at just within top 30. I just like using Recent Elo when the stars align. For grass we probably could use Recent Elo right after Miami. It works very well right now when well into hard court season and should be great through Miami.

Oh that's a rating on all surfaces then and not just clay. I do agree that recent Elo seems more accurate because the other ratings on there take in past performances it seems. I also wouldn't rate Murray "currently" at #6. I think there is a abstract on there that breaks down his formula.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
It really is sad, and hard to condone never winning a clay masters.
Please. Thiem is often burdened with low seeding on clay. And then hard to recover off of big Nadal match:
19/2018 QF Madrid Masters Clay Dominic Thiem Rafael Nadal 7-5 6-3
16/2018 QF Monte Carlo Masters Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 6-0 6-2
19/2017 QF Rome Masters Clay Dominic Thiem Rafael Nadal 6-4 6-3

Playing Nadal takes a lot out of a player. If Thiem was positioned on opposite side of draw from Nadal he'd do quite well:
18/2017 F Madrid Masters Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 7-6(8) 6-4
17/2017 F Barcelona Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 6-4 6-1
22/2019 F FO - RG Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 6-3 5-7 6-1 6-1 (post Djoko also an outrage with match finishing on Saturday, just a joke);)
22/2018 F FO - RG Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 6-4 6-3 6-2

And:
17/2019 SF Barcelona Clay Dominic Thiem Rafael Nadal 6-4 6-4

That is a lot of finals and Thiem would have been in many more if Nadal always on other side of draw.

20/2019 F Rome Masters Clay Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 6-0 4-6 6-1
19/2018 SF Rome Masters Clay Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 7-6(4) 6-3
18/2017 SF Madrid Masters Clay Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 6-2 6-4
18/2016 QF Rome Masters Clay Novak Djokovic Rafael Nadal 7-5 7-6(4)
21/2015 QF FO - RG Clay Novak Djokovic Rafael Nadal 7-5 6-3 6-1
15/2015 SF Monte Carlo Masters Clay Novak Djokovic Rafael Nadal 6-3 6-3
21/2014 F FO - RG Clay Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 3-6 7-5 6-2 6-4
19/2014 F Rome Masters Clay Novak Djokovic Rafael Nadal 4-6 6-3 6-3
21/2013 SF FO - RG Clay Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 6-4 3-6 6-1 6-7 9-7
16/2013 F Monte Carlo Masters Clay Novak Djokovic Rafael Nadal 6-2 7-6(1)
22/2012 F FO - RG Clay Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 6-4 6-3 2-6 7-5
20/2012 F Rome Masters Clay Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 7-5 6-3
16/2012 F Monte Carlo Masters Clay Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 6-3 6-1
20/2009 SF Madrid Masters Clay Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(9)
18/2009 F Rome Masters Clay Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 7-6(2) 6-2
16/2009 F Monte Carlo Masters Clay Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 6-3 2-6 6-1
10/2009 Spain v Serbia - DC WG - R1 Clay Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 6-4 6-4 6-1
22/2008 SF FO - RG Clay Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 6-4 6-2 7-6(3)
20/2008 SF Hamburg Clay Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 7-5 2-6 6-2
22/2007 SF FO - RG Clay Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 7-5 6-4 6-2
19/2007 QF Rome Masters Clay Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 6-2 6-3
22/2006 QF FO - RG Clay Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 6-4 6-4 0-0 Retired

The bottom line is Thiem has three quality wins over Nadal in a short window of three years and Djokovic has just 4 over 13 years.:sneaky: Thiem just held back by seeding.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
There was quite a bit of wind at RG which also hurt Federer much more than Nadal. Federer2019 was a huge force on clay.
Oh Meles, come on. Fed was a huge force on clay with this caveat: for a 37 year old. It's tough to be a huge force when you play three clay events and lose before the final in them all. ;) But he showed more varietythan anybody else out there and made clay court tennis fun to watch again, I'll give Roger that.
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
1. Ultimate Tennis Statistics (a webpage made by Novak Djokovic fans) has a different Elo rating than the fan's webpage Tennis Abstract. So both of them cannot be correct, clearly one or both of them manipulate numbers.
2. Elo was originally conceived for chess, not tennis.
3. There is no such thing as an offical Elo rating for tennis, therefore there is no Elo in tennis. There is ATP ranking.
4. There is no way in hell Djokovic and specially Federer have a higher Elo rating than Thiem on clay.
1. Both can be correct. It's just a difference in the timespan of matches taken into consideration, and the size of the data set.

2. So what? It's been adopted by several different sports to measure the relative strength of players, with great accuracy. The mathematics behind Elo ratings don't suddenly stop working outside of chess.

3. And? Just because there isn't an official rating, it doesn't mean an unofficial one can't be calculated. The ATP ranking has its own set of problems - you can play in a load of weak clay tournaments and add cheap points to your total. Which is exactly what many players do. Dusan Lajovic has more ATP points on clay than Federer by doing this. But do you really believe he would beat Fed if they played each other?

4. This just shows your complete ignorance on how Elo ratings works. Specifically, Elo punishes you for losses to weak players. And Thiem has had plenty of those in the last 52 weeks. Djokovic has only lost to Nadal, Thiem, and Medvedev. Thiem has lost to Djere, Lajovic, Verdasco, Rublev, Schwartzman, Djokovic, and Nadal. This is a surefire way to make your Elo drop like a stone.

Fed also doesn't have a higher Elo than Thiem on clay. Fed's about 100 points behind Thiem according to Ultimate Tennis Statistics
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
LOL, I love how you say "grand Slam achievements" are all that matters, but then turn around and say "Thiem has defeated Nadal multiple times these years" when he's been consistently destroyed by Nadal in their RG matches. But if other tournaments also matter, then Djokovic has also beaten Thiem "multiple times" on the surface these years.

No, that's not how percentages work... If you play less then any losses get are also greatly magnified. By playing more, a loss has far less impact. If you are 4-1 and lose a match, you go from 80% to 67% (a 13% drop). But if you are 11-1 and lose a match, you go from 92% to 85% (a 7% drop).

But no matter how you slice it, 23-7 with losses to Djere, Lajovic, Verdasco, and Rublev is a very poor record for someone who's the apparent "second best" on a surface.
What a joke.:sneaky:

22/2019 SF FO - RG Clay Dominic Thiem Novak Djokovic 6-2 3-6 7-5 5-7 7-5 - Djoko propped up by match being spread over three days, and that 3rd day a complete travesty.
19/2019 SF Madrid Masters Clay Novak Djokovic Dominic Thiem 7-6(2) 7-6(4) - ye hah Djoko barely beats Thiem after Federer encounter at fast Madrid with this new serve game.
16/2018 R16 Monte Carlo Masters Clay Dominic Thiem Novak Djokovic 6-7(2) 6-2 6-3
21/2017 QF FO - RG Clay Dominic Thiem Novak Djokovic 7-6(5) 6-3 6-0

Djokovic is not the 2nd best player on clay, he's just got the seeding advantage right now.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Oh Meles, come on. Fed was a huge force on clay with this caveat: for a 37 year old. It's tough to be a huge force when you play three clay events and lose before the final in them all. ;) But he showed more varietythan anybody else out there and made clay court tennis fun to watch again, I'll give Roger that.
Such a fraudulent fan.:cry: Fed was a great force on clay this year and has owned Nadal off of it, so he'd do far better in calm conditions where he could safely play with maximum aggression.
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
What a joke.:sneaky:

22/2019 SF FO - RG Clay Dominic Thiem Novak Djokovic 6-2 3-6 7-5 5-7 7-5 - Djoko propped up by match being spread over three days, and that 3rd day a complete travesty.
19/2019 SF Madrid Masters Clay Novak Djokovic Dominic Thiem 7-6(2) 7-6(4) - ye hah Djoko barely beats Thiem after Federer encounter at fast Madrid with this new serve game.
16/2018 R16 Monte Carlo Masters Clay Dominic Thiem Novak Djokovic 6-7(2) 6-2 6-3
21/2017 QF FO - RG Clay Dominic Thiem Novak Djokovic 7-6(5) 6-3 6-0

Djokovic is not the 2nd best player on clay, he's just got the seeding advantage right now.
While I'd agree that Thiem is better than Djokovic on clay right now based on my subjective opinion, it doesn't change the objective reality of Thiem's bad losses to randos pushing down his Elo.

It goes to show that these numbers and stats can give you a general idea of what's going on, but they don't actually tell the whole story ;)
 
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Meles

Bionic Poster
Thiem has some poor losses on clay which brings it down. However you are right, without weight of tourney having an impact, it really is pointless.

I am not a fan of Thiem, but he brings his best tennis at RG. Elo does not show this. Rankings does.
Ultimate tennis weights Elo based on tourament with Clay Masters just at 85% versus RG.;)
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
While I'd agree that Thiem is better than Djokovic right now based on my subjective opinion, it doesn't change the fact the objective reality of Thiem's bad losses to randos on clay pushing down his Elo.

It goes to show that these numbers and stats can give you a general idea of what's going on, but they don't actually tell the whole story ;)
Well in a post above I do go through the 2019 losses and they are not as bad as you make them.

Verdasco victory in Rome2019 was crippling for Thiem because he did not want to enter Lyon again (necessary in 2018 because he came into clay season off of fractured ankle at IW and needed to find form.) So Thiem came in quite cold to RG and it cost him with a lot of four set matches and then the ridiculous schedule at the end with Djoko and the conditions and the fraud tournament director bleeding him as well (match should have finished Friday without question.)

In any event I'm content to have him at 4. We all know it was very close in clay level between Thiem, Fed, and Djoko. This new ranking system is about the entire field and in no way is it intended for some Big 3/4 on clay circle jerk.;)
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
@Red Rick I'm sure is quite interested and Murray's ranking being recovered to 30. This thing has a short tail, but you can't do much more. See Murray's ranking if anyone wants to complain about 29 which is probably a fair shake for a rapidly moving target. Same issue applies to those in steep decline or incline like some of the young players. This does a pretty sound job.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
What a joke.:sneaky:

22/2019 SF FO - RG Clay Dominic Thiem Novak Djokovic 6-2 3-6 7-5 5-7 7-5 - Djoko propped up by match being spread over three days, and that 3rd day a complete travesty.
19/2019 SF Madrid Masters Clay Novak Djokovic Dominic Thiem 7-6(2) 7-6(4) - ye hah Djoko barely beats Thiem after Federer encounter at fast Madrid with this new serve game.
16/2018 R16 Monte Carlo Masters Clay Dominic Thiem Novak Djokovic 6-7(2) 6-2 6-3
21/2017 QF FO - RG Clay Dominic Thiem Novak Djokovic 7-6(5) 6-3 6-0

Djokovic is not the 2nd best player on clay, he's just got the seeding advantage right now.

So the stomping that happened before Thiem himself clubbed Djokovic in 2017 and the RG match the year before don't count? They're tied in the head to head. Shot for shot they are close right now but one is way more accomplished than the other and outperformed him even this year in a year where Thiem should be better.
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
The bottom line is Thiem has three quality wins over Nadal in a short window of three years and Djokovic has just 4 over 13 years.:sneaky: Thiem just held back by seeding.
Thiem has also played Nadal a lot more regularly than Djokovic did, and he's played worse versions of Nadal than Djokovic did. Despite all of this, Djokovic and Thiem's success rate against Nadal on clay are quite close (around 30%)
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
So the stomping that happened before Thiem himself clubbed Djokovic in 2017 and the RG match the year before don't count? They're tied in the head to head. Shot for shot they are close right now but one is way more accomplished than the other and outperformed him even this year in a year where Thiem should be better.
Well that was a post Nadal clubbing and the Zverev treated Nole like a baby seal in the final of Rome; no that doesn't count. :sneaky:

Also RG 2016 was the worst travesty of all of them because Thiem was absolutely drained by Goffin in the previous match with no day off before Djoko. Djoko at least had the same schedule (can't say that about the 2019 final), but the hapless berd-brain rolled over easily like a dutiful pigeon leaving Nole markedly fresher against the tour newby Thiem. Thiem has a penchant for often finishing very strong at events if he's not gassed. I'd liked to have seen that a fairer fight given Thiem's 17 BPs that year against Nole in Miami. It will be fun having Thiem in with Federe and Nole at WTF this year.:D
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Three matches, none at a slam, don't make up for other losses.
What? Here is the whole record on clay:
Thiem is 4-7 vs Nadal on clay in 4 years (4-8 if not throwing out the 2014 encounter)
Federer lol - 2-14? over 15 years --> Thiem probably would have hit him in 40 matches
Djoko - 7-17 over 14 years --> two of those wins very suspect from 2015 and Thiem much higherer encounter rate and better record.

Thiem has the best record of any clay courter against Nadal. And its going to be clobbering time in 2020. :sneaky:
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Thiem has also played Nadal a lot more regularly than Djokovic did, and he's played worse versions of Nadal than Djokovic did. Despite all of this, Djokovic and Thiem's success rate against Nadal on clay are quite close (around 30%)
Three of Thiem's wins were against a high quality Nadal who got hided. Thiem did not play Nadal in 2015 like Djokovic did for two wins in 2015. The Buenos Aires Thiem win over Nadal in 2016 take it you must.:cry:

Nole played Nadal with a 1 year age gap. We've not quite seen peak Thiem yet and he would have gotten more victories (2008 and 2012 accepted of course) if they played prime to prime and peak to peak. Nadal's clay stats from 2017-2019 really don't take a back seat to all but his two peak years. You can imagine things all you want, but Thiem is better at beating Nadal than Djokovic. Plus Thiem is strongerer at RG.;) With no Nadal around Nole probably takes 2012-2014 RG. Thiem 2017-2019 and counting if he falls short against Nadal again at RG in 2020. Clay Dominator.;)
 

Lleytonstation

Talk Tennis Guru
What? Here is the whole record on clay:
Thiem is 4-7 vs Nadal on clay in 4 years (4-8 if not throwing out the 2014 encounter)
Federer lol - 2-14? over 15 years --> Thiem probably would have hit him in 40 matches
Djoko - 7-17 over 14 years --> two of those wins very suspect from 2015 and Thiem much higherer encounter rate and better record.

Thiem has the best record of any clay courter against Nadal. And its going to be clobbering time in 2020. :sneaky:
We will see, but don't see it changing against him at RG. While Rafa is the bar for clay, it does not make all other opponents meaningless...
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
What is far more interesting then Big 3 trolls salivating over Medvedev and his place on hard courts or Thiem on clay is the rest of the rankings:
Denis Shapovalov 5 10 9 11 - Shapo most impressive, but notice his average shows a big gap with the top 4
Kevin Anderson 6 11 8 14 - Anderson a thorn in Recent Elo's side, but at least his points won has his average down
Alexander Zverev 7 12 10 13
Alex De Minaur 8 12 17 6 - boosted by points won so we'll see if he can come good by clay season next year
Dominic Thiem 9 12 5 19
Kei Nishikori 10 13 15 10
Stefanos Tsitsipas 11 13 6 20 - Tsitsipas hurt by points performance
Jo Wilfried Tsonga 12 14 13 15
Gael Monfils 13 14 21 7 - Clownfils Recent Elo brings him down
Andrey Rublev 14 15 12 18

That is a lot of NextGen likely to rise into or near the top ten in 2019 and don't bet the farm on pigeon power with Monfils, Tsonga, and Nishikori holding the pitch fork. :sick: Murray is the only one I see breaking up the party. I think the Kandyman days of generosity may be fading like Isner. Delpo probably has a long road back like before given his time off. Hard court fun just going to get betterer in the 2nd year of the Diamond Age.

For Clay less to disgust:
Stefanos Tsitsipas 5 6 6 5
Juan Martin Del Potro 6 8 7 9
Gael Monfils 7 11 13 8 - quite high, but he has the points
Alexander Zverev 8 15 9 20
Filip Krajinovic 9 17 18 16
Benoit Paire 10 17 22 12
Borna Coric 11 18 17 18
Matteo Berrettini 12 18 30 6 - here Berrettini is helped by points won
Kei Nishikori 13 19 8 29
Jan Lennard Struff 14 19 14 23
Stan Wawrinka 15 21 10 31 - Stan is always an anomoly
Casper Ruud 16 22 36 7 - Ruud on the radar due to his points won
Daniil Medvedev 17 23 12 34- Mad Lad put in his place on clay, his worst surface

Despite some wanting to have a hissy fit over Thiem not showing up as 2 when we all know 2, 3, and 4 are very close. Its interesting to note that Tsitsipas comes in at 5 and again I'd not bet the farm on Delpo and Monfils for 2020 clay, but I would bet on the return of Zedzilla 2.0 still at 8. (Long, long overdue with the train wreck of 2019 at Masters events). Again here I like Mad Lad knocked down two or three pegs on clay. Nishikori probably in the ball park, but not a threat at RG. Paire due to fade. The rest in that group are players I've found to be very interesting prospects or players of interest over the last few years. It will be interesting to see what they do plus perhaps Ymer and Fokina (not ranked) from Milan.

I do like this combined clay ranking very much.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
We will see, but don't see it changing against him at RG. While Rafa is the bar for clay, it does not make all other opponents meaningless...
Well what of the rest of the pack in the post above? We can all have a slam down drag out about the very top when Euro clay is nearly upon us.:D

I think with Wawrinka still showing signs of coming on and maybe just maybe Clayray. That is one hellacious eight on clay.o_O Last year was not bad with that nice Tsitsipas v Wawa match. Weaken Nadal a little bit and it just gets crazy.:love:

Plus maybe Coric wakes up who has great record vs Nadal, Zverev, and Thiem.
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
Well that was a post Nadal clubbing and the Zverev treated Nole like a baby seal in the final of Rome; no that doesn't count. :sneaky:

Also RG 2016 was the worst travesty of all of them because Thiem was absolutely drained by Goffin in the previous match with no day off before Djoko. Djoko at least had the same schedule (can't say that about the 2019 final), but the hapless berd-brain rolled over easily like a dutiful pigeon leaving Nole markedly fresher against the tour newby Thiem. Thiem has a penchant for often finishing very strong at events if he's not gassed. I'd liked to have seen that a fairer fight given Thiem's 17 BPs that year against Nole in Miami. It will be fun having Thiem in with Federe and Nole at WTF this year.:D

Fair enough about 2017 Rome but if you are counting 2017 RG, then you have to count that match as well since they happened within two weeks of each other.

Djokovic was on fire in that 2016 RG match. There was nothing Thiem could do against that version. It was 4 sets for Thiem against Goffin so it wasn't that hard for him to recover, especially for a 22 year old. Yes WTF should be interesting without a doubt.
 

James P

G.O.A.T.
If you read the abstract on their elo formula, it does factor in the tournament, but more importantly it factors in the opponent. Just an FYI, they also factor in the round of the tournament and whether it's BO3 or BO5.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Fair enough about 2017 Rome but if you are counting 2017 RG, then you have to count that match as well since they happened within two weeks of each other.

Djokovic was on fire in that 2016 RG match. There was nothing Thiem could do against that version. It was 4 sets for Thiem against Goffin so it wasn't that hard for him to recover, especially for a 22 year old. Yes WTF should be interesting without a doubt.
Baaaaaaahhh. You obviously did not see the Thiem-Gofin match to make such a ridiculous statement. No days off between matches was also huge factor and you know it, especially for a fairly new player to tour.

Your 2017 statement makes no sense either. Either Djokovic was playing well or he was a house of cards and cleaned up on a tired Thiem after Madrid and Rome capped off with a great Nadal match. That’s about as legitimate as Federer’s 2009 Nadal Madrid triumph. :sneaky:
 

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
Baaaaaaahhh. You obviously did not see the Thiem-Gofin match to make such a ridiculous statement. No days off between matches was also huge factor and you know it, especially for a fairly new player to tour.

Your 2017 statement makes no sense either. Either Djokovic was playing well or he was a house of cards and cleaned up on a tired Thiem after Madrid and Rome capped off with a great Nadal match. That’s about as legitimate as Federer’s 2009 Nadal Madrid triumph. :sneaky:

Neither had a day off and played 4 consecutive days. Still, recovery for a 22 and a half year old is quicker than it is for a 29 year old. Djokovic played insane that day in the SF regardless that it was the 4th consecutive day. Watching the match, I didn't get the sense that Thiem was tired, although I'm sure neither of them were fresh, but he was outplayed.

Saying the 2017 RG match was a great win and the 2017 Rome was not doesn't make sense either though. Both were terrible in the matches they lost. If you count one then you might as well count the other.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Neither had a day off and played 4 consecutive days. Still, recovery for a 22 and a half year old is quicker than it is for a 29 year old. Djokovic played insane that day in the SF regardless that it was the 4th consecutive day. Watching the match, I didn't get the sense that Thiem was tired, although I'm sure neither of them were fresh, but he was outplayed.

Saying the 2017 RG match was a great win and the 2017 Rome was not doesn't make sense either though. Both were terrible in the matches they lost. If you count one then you might as well count the other.
This isn't a Novak pity party and you fail with the facts again to make your case.

If peak Stamina for Athlete is Thiem's age then why did Nole fail and fail and fail in his early years in slams? :unsure: The reality:
"It is well accepted that peak performance as an endurance athlete seems to occur somewhere between 25 to 35 years of age1 – a theory easily demonstrated with results from any major competition"

Been drinking fraudulent kool-aid?
 
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