MEP vs ET Match Prediction Thread

Shankmeister-Chubs

Shankmeister-Chubs

Rookie
For those of us who are enjoying the biggest online showdown between amateurs In the modern era, let's get our predictions on record!

I'll start with mine. I came into this a huge believer in Ben's game, but I'm starting to waiver in my convictions after seeing the trailer and picking up hints from the conversations shown. So although I've been rooting for a Ben sweep, my current prediction has swing towards a rough 3 days:

Ben vs Sean:. Sean wins 6:3, 4:6, 7:6
Ben will need to acclimate to ET's fast court. Sean will rise to the occasion and deal damage off of neutral balls with enough consistency to pull ahead. This is based solely on previous match footage and Sean and the commentators' words from the highlight video.

Ben vs Topher: Ben wins, 6:4, 6:1
Topher is a solid player with great fitness, so he should match well with Ben on paper. However, if your game plan is to sort of play a version of Ben's game, just more conventional or uptempo, you're in trouble against the master of that style. Unless Topher can raise his attacking game in terms of tactics and shot making, it will be a tough task.

Ben vs Scott. Scott wins 6:2, 6:4
As the best player in this group, this has to be a win by Scott, buy if Ben can grind Scott down a bit, this match can start to swing to Ben's side, especially if a 3rd set is played. Scott is too solid off the ground and his weapons too big and solid. Scott's serve may be the biggest Ben has faced in recent memory.

Ben vs. Ian. Ian wins 7:6 4:6, 6:3
Ben is a very tough opponent for Ian. With the huge advantage in match tempering with his constant competitive play, and a style lacking the pace that Ian's form likes to utilize, there will be a hill for Ian to climb. But Ian has been training for this match and studying Ben for months now, and has some solid weapons of his own, notably the serve and the net game. If Ian can keep an even keel in arguably his highest pressure match in years, he will come out on top.
 
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MEP loses to Sean and Topher, maybe wins against Scott and loses against Ian. I like MEP as a person but the hacky style without split stepping and hardly any weapons won't work against some of the better 4.0s and 4.5s.
 
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colabby said:
MEP loses to Sean and Topher, maybe wins against Scott and loses against Ian. I like MEP as a person, but the hacky style without split stepping and hardly any weapons won't work against some of the better 4.0s and 4.5s.
Click to expand...

It’s the conditions that are getting him. MEP beats 4.5s all the time in Atlanta, and don’t those Atlanta guys claim that an Atlanta 4.5 is 5.5 everywhere else? ;)

On a fast indoor hard court, a pusher needs to do more to keep the ball out of the strike zone — usually with low slice, but moon balls can work too. It’s too hard to play defense on a fast court if you are letting your opponent swing at balls in the middle of the strike zone, especially when temperature and humidity are low and there’s not as much fatigue risk for the offensive player.

On a hot, humid, outdoor court the bounce is taking off a lot more pace. That gives MEP more time to get to the ball, and also makes the offensive player work harder to put all the pace back on his own side. I would virtually guarantee Sean loses badly playing MEP on MEP’s home court.
 
All the above is true, but getting to the root of the matter, GSG is tall (6 feet). A shorter person would not have the reach to pull off the kind of defense he has. It is true he runs a lot, but that is also helped by the reach. Same with the angle and low height he gets on the serve - not possible with the geometry of shorter people. Many people consider 6 feet the ideal height for tennis.
 
sureshs said:
All the above is true, but getting to the root of the matter, GSG is tall (6 feet). A shorter person would not have the reach to pull off the kind of defense he has. It is true he runs a lot, but that is also helped by the reach. Same with the angle and low height he gets on the serve - not possible with the geometry of shorter people. Many people consider 6 feet the ideal height for tennis.
Click to expand...
You could be 5'6 and still pull off MEP's style with the same effectiveness. You can make up for the reach disadvantage by split stepping which will get you much quicker to the ball. Actually for the serve, you can get an even lower bounce if you're shorter, geometry helps you, why do you say otherwise.
 
time_fly said:
It’s the conditions that are getting him. MEP beats 4.5s all the time in Atlanta, and don’t those Atlanta guys claim that an Atlanta 4.5 is 5.5 everywhere else? ;)
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This is a case where UTR would be superior.
If he were playing a non-USTA park league down there they are sometimes .5 off but who knows.
 
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PS, in the spirit of the original thread title, I bet MEP bounces back, Sean gets fatigued, and MEP narrowly wins the first match. I bet he loses the remaining matches, with Ian's match being the closest score.
 
I'm a big fan of Ian's, and frankly I'm more impressed with Ben's game than before all this started. BUT, I'm getting slightly irritated with Ian milking this like it's some sort of day time soap opera, reality TV, Texas chainsaw death match. As I understand it that matches have all been completed and so just announce the results already.
 
time_fly said:
PS, in the spirit of the original thread title, I bet MEP bounces back, Sean gets fatigued, and MEP narrowly wins the first match. I bet he loses the remaining matches, with Ian's match being the closest score.
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I somewhat agree with this. GSG won either 1 match(against Sean) or 0 matches. His worst score was likely against Ian, who has a good net game and overhead - key to playing pushers. If GSG had done better, it's unlikely that TennisTroll would have posted a six month old match of GSG losing (against BoA) after GSG got back from Wisconsin. </tinfoilhat>
 
sureshs said:
All the above is true, but getting to the root of the matter, GSG is tall (6 feet). A shorter person would not have the reach to pull off the kind of defense he has. It is true he runs a lot, but that is also helped by the reach. Same with the angle and low height he gets on the serve - not possible with the geometry of shorter people. Many people consider 6 feet the ideal height for tennis.
Click to expand...
Irrefutable points, @sureshs . I'm sure we're very close to the height to win percentage formula, and that will be a good day. Well, for tall people, at least. But, I'm still waiting for your match result predictions! You have the benefit of watching the first segment of the first match now!
 
chetrbox said:
I somewhat agree with this. GSG won either 1 match(against Sean) or 0 matches. His worst score was likely against Ian, who has a good net game and overhead - key to playing pushers. If GSG had done better, it's unlikely that TennisTroll would have posted a six month old match of GSG losing (against BoA) after GSG got back from Wisconsin. </tinfoilhat>
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That's some good tinfoil hat action! I really tried to read between the lines in the interview video, and the match highlights video. I'm still favoring Ben over Topher, but agree that scott and Ian probably roll over him.
 
GSG said:
I don't want to say any thing that will upend any predictions, so I will just say that the format for all the matches was 2 out of 3 full sets.
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I will have to adjust my predictions, since I assumed 3rd set tiebreaker! By the way, your first match has been super fun to watch so far!
 
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sureshs said:
All the above is true, but getting to the root of the matter, GSG is tall (6 feet). A shorter person would not have the reach to pull off the kind of defense he has. It is true he runs a lot, but that is also helped by the reach. Same with the angle and low height he gets on the serve - not possible with the geometry of shorter people. Many people consider 6 feet the ideal height for tennis.
Click to expand...

I am 6 feet tall as well and it’s a balanced height.
 
Dan R said:
I'm a big fan of Ian's, and frankly I'm more impressed with Ben's game than before all this started. BUT, I'm getting slightly irritated with Ian milking this like it's some sort of day time soap opera, reality TV, Texas chainsaw death match. As I understand it that matches have all been completed and so just announce the results already.
Click to expand...
Guys, this is the match prediction thread. There's another thread for all the comments about Ian's video strategy and marketing choices. I will say that often, businesses do things that make the most business sense based on data, and sometimes these choices do not match with every consumer's preference. That said...

PUT UP YOUR PREDICTIONS FOR US TO RIDICULE!!!
 
colabby said:
MEP loses to Sean and Topher, maybe wins against Scott and loses against Ian. I like MEP as a person but the hacky style without split stepping and hardly any weapons won't work against some of the better 4.0s and 4.5s.
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Scott is like a full NTRP level higher than Sean (not sure about Topher). There's no way MEP loses to Sean _and_ beats Scott.
 
@GSG Ben, your play in the first video has made me even more nervous about my prediction. These matches are definitely hard to call. As is apparent because so many commenters here are apparently too gun-shy to make a call!

@curly_2350 The other thread became a commentary on coaching pricing, being a youtuber, etc. Yeah, some people threw in predictions. But this is the predictions thread. What's your call?
 
I just watched Sean vs GSG but the video ended at 5-4 for GSG. Does anyone know who won the match. I also think the players having to evaluate and comment on their match play is a huge distraction for the players and the viewers. Sean was beating himself up way too much. It seemed like he felt obligated to say something. I think just let them play is better.
 
Am I to understand that if one of the matches goes 3 sets, it will be posted in 5 episodes (1 being the highlights)?
Hope I can take the suspense.
 
I think most of us as fans mainly of the tennis would prefer just one camera straight gameplay ala tennis troll channel. But it's Ian's channel and he's trying to do the whole Days of Our Lives thing so of course it's up to him.

He did put up a poll yesterday that was Do you like the 10 min highlights or prefer just straight posting of the first set? and it had like 90% saying just post the match (and now the poll seems to have disappeared…) so maybe he will tone it down a bit.
 
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I think Ben wins 2 of the matches. Ian likely wins his match by having 3 guys beat up on @GSG first, then having a go at what's left, in addition to playing in the sterile environment of indoor/low roof/anti-lob.

I think there is ZERO chance Ian beats Ben outdoors in the elements.
 
sureshs said:
I searched for the top luxury hotels in Milwaukee and the rates are under $200 a night. Can they be 5 star? I usually don't stay in any place which charges less than $500 a night.
Click to expand...
I once visited Minneapolis in December, and was able to book the W for under $100 per night.
 
TennisDawg said:
I just watched Sean vs GSG but the video ended at 5-4 for GSG. Does anyone know who won the match. I also think the players having to evaluate and comment on their match play is a huge distraction for the players and the viewers. Sean was beating himself up way too much. It seemed like he felt obligated to say something. I think just let them play is better.
Click to expand...

Also those confessionals extend the length of the videos. I can understand it being done with Ian and kevin or Ira but to require it of everyone that plays adds another distraction which can affect the match. A lot of players aren't as comfortable with that as Ian or one of his coaches would be.
 
chazz said:
Also those confessionals extend the length of the videos. I can understand it being done with Ian and kevin or Ira but to require it of everyone that plays adds another distraction which can affect the match. A lot of players aren't as comfortable with that as Ian or one of his coaches would be.
Click to expand...
That may be true, but Ben has the gift of gab though, with the mentality of a bear trap, so I don't see him being negatively affected by this requirement. Each of the other guys have done the confessional stuff before and are back for more, so in sum, I don't think it's going to be a huge factor. And I really don't see this as padding, great content to see what's going through the mind of the player.
 
Shankmeister-Chubs said:
That may be true, but Ben has the gift of gab though, with the mentality of a bear trap, so I don't see him being negatively affected by this requirement. Each of the other guys have done the confessional stuff before and are back for more, so in sum, I don't think it's going to be a huge factor. And I really don't see this as padding, great content to see what's going through the mind of the player.
Click to expand...
Agree I didn’t learn anything from the commentary. It was mostly redundant. I do think Sean talked himself out of winning. I’m assuming GSG won.
 
time_fly said:
It’s the conditions that are getting him. MEP beats 4.5s all the time in Atlanta, and don’t those Atlanta guys claim that an Atlanta 4.5 is 5.5 everywhere else? ;)

On a fast indoor hard court, a pusher needs to do more to keep the ball out of the strike zone — usually with low slice, but moon balls can work too. It’s too hard to play defense on a fast court if you are letting your opponent swing at balls in the middle of the strike zone, especially when temperature and humidity are low and there’s not as much fatigue risk for the offensive player.

On a hot, humid, outdoor court the bounce is taking off a lot more pace. That gives MEP more time to get to the ball, and also makes the offensive player work harder to put all the pace back on his own side. I would virtually guarantee Sean loses badly playing MEP on MEP’s home court.
Click to expand...

The problem for MEP is that he has lost frequently vs. tennis troll guys as well. 50 year old man, tennis troll, boss of atlanta, Div I wannabe all beat him.
Maybe USTA 4.5 isn't what it used to be.. Certainly the 4.5s featured on ET or even the guy on Intuitive tennis seem to be stronger 4.5s.. and so do the tennis troll guys.

Perhaps its that the 4.5 teams just slot some guy to lose - and try to win the rest of the matches as no one wants to play MEP because of the stamina factor. The Tennis Troll guys on the other hand know its going to be on video - so they come to play with a plan and win. Don't underestimate the gamesmanship of good USTA captains.
 
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GuyClinch said:
The problem for MEP is that he has lost frequently vs. tennis troll guys as well. 50 year old man, tennis troll, boss of atlanta, Div I wannabe all beat him.
Maybe USTA 4.5 isn't what it used to be.. Certainly the 4.5s featured on ET or even the guy on Intuitive tennis seem to be stronger 4.5s.. and so do the tennis troll guys.

Perhaps its that the 4.5 teams just slot some guy to lose - and try to win the rest of the matches as no one wants to play MEP because of the stamina factor. The Tennis Troll guys on the other hand know its going to be on video - so they come to play with a plan and win.
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I am not going to make excuses for any losses on TT channel. All were against excellent players. At the same time I will say that I treat USTA and other league matches differently than I do TT matches, in preparation, intensity, and strategy, and I think that's a big reason why my TT results don't really reflect my USTA performance.
 
Imagine how much money the ATP could save if they just held 1 tournament per year and put out each match in short sections every other day.
 
GuyClinch said:
The problem for MEP is that he has lost frequently vs. tennis troll guys as well. 50 year old man, tennis troll, boss of atlanta, Div I wannabe all beat him.
Maybe USTA 4.5 isn't what it used to be.. Certainly the 4.5s featured on ET or even the guy on Intuitive tennis seem to be stronger 4.5s.. and so do the tennis troll guys.

Perhaps its that the 4.5 teams just slot some guy to lose - and try to win the rest of the matches as no one wants to play MEP because of the stamina factor. The Tennis Troll guys on the other hand know its going to be on video - so they come to play with a plan and win. Don't underestimate the gamesmanship of good USTA captains.
Click to expand...

how is it 'a problem'? Like is @GSG not supposed to lose every now and then? What's strange about one 4.5 player beating another 4.5 player? And what is with the obsession that 50yr old player is somewhat deficient so a younger one at the same level should have no problem beating him? You never met 50yr dude that can run for 2hrs? Plus, with all due respect, recreational tennis at 4.5 level is not exactly olympic level activity effort wise......
GSG said:
I am not going to make excuses for any losses on TT channel. All were against excellent players. At the same time I will say that I treat USTA and other league matches differently than I do TT matches, in preparation, intensity, and strategy, and I think that's a big reason why my TT results don't really reflect my USTA performance.
Click to expand...
I really do not think you need to justify anything. Your league play record speaks for itself. I would prefer to think that your TT matches _do_ reflect your USTA ones - just perhaps the players you face on TT are on higher end of 4.5 (and beyond) scale so it is natural that you have somewhat less stellar record there. Nothing wrong with it.
 
jmnk said:
how is it 'a problem'? Like is @GSG not supposed to lose every now and then? What's strange about one 4.5 player beating another 4.5 player? And what is with the obsession that 50yr old player is somewhat deficient so a younger one at the same level should have no problem beating him? You never met 50yr dude that can run for 2hrs? Plus, with all due respect, recreational tennis at 4.5 level is not exactly olympic level activity effort wise......
Click to expand...

The problem is not for GSG - its for us handicapping the event. :p Judging by his stellar USTA record where he basically never loses he should easily dispatch nearly all the 4.5s. I was merely speculating on the reasons for the disparity. GSG is a good guy - he doesn't need you guys defending him for some perceived slights. Clearly his record at USTA 4.5 is stellar - and thus he is a very strong 4.5 by actual league play.

Perhaps he just takes it easy in the tennis troll matches.. and plays for fun - which I think he alluded too.
 
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