Middle States and Eastern 4.0 Sectionals Predictions

Ustatennis13

New User
I saw the southern 4.0 predictions thread so I figured with a couple of other sectionals coming up next weekend we can get some predictions in. I saw that the New Jersey team that was basically the same team that won Eastern and Middle States districts decided to drop out of Eastern sectionals and give it to the 2nd place team. Looks like they are putting all their focus in Middle States. I would figure with all teams at full strength it probably comes down to New Jersey and PATD to determine who wins it. As for Eastern, I think Long Island is looking pretty strong now with the top New Jersey team out of it. Anybody with any thoughts/predictions?
 

J_R_B

Hall of Fame
Middle States:

Philly and NJ both have very strong teams. If it comes down to these two teams, it's going to be very close. I think NJ has a small edge, if they have their top lineup available. NJ singles are better. Philly has one older guy (the MMA pro) and two HS kids playing singles. I had a guy on my team who was my #1 singles player who also plays for NJ, but is only their 3rd or 4th singles. He lost an 11-9 match tb to the #1 singles guy and beat one of the kids pretty handily, and he's not in the top 2 for NJ. The NJ #1 has played 7 matches across the Eastern NJ regionals and NJD districts and has lost 7 total games in those 7 matches with three double bagels (although in a couple, the other teams clearly stacked away from him and gave away S1...). Their S2 lost a match tb to the nationals remnants team's best player, but only after the first three courts had won and they clinched districts. He was up a set at the time.

Doubles are very evenly matched, but if NJ can sweep the singles courts, they will win at least one doubles. The best overall player on the NJ team typically plays doubles. He's 24-0 (including 6-0 in playoff matches) at 4.0 and 6-4 at 4.5, with one 4.5 loss in doubles where the opposing team used an illegal player (a 5.0-level 3-star recruit who hadn't turned 18 yet) and another in singles against a guy who was 3-1 including two singles wins at 4.5 nationals last year. He is a hammer who will be very tough to beat at 4.0. Unfortunately, his presumptive partner, who was a veteran of the 4.0 nationals team last year, was suspended as part of the 4.5 illegal player operation. If the two of them were still playing together, they would be an automatic doubles point. Regardless, they have the horses to find him another partner (and also compete on the two other courts). My prediction is that NJ will win 3-2 in that match.

Central is a team based out of Lebanon Valley College. They are a younger team, and typically pretty good. They can't be overlooked, but I don't think they quite have the horses to compete with the big boys at full strength. Delaware also looks pretty strong. Their captain is good at adding strong players from the Philly teams as a "second chance", so he'll have 4 guys from the second place districts team to use, but he'll be missing all of the 4 common players from the winner, who are 4 of their top doubles players. If those 4 players would play for DE instead of Philly (which won't happen since it includes the Philly captain, LOL), they would be the top contender to beat NJ, but as it stands, they're probably fighting for third with Central. I don't know much about the Allegheny team, although they typically aren't contenders, but who knows, they could be a surprise. The Eastern PA team is just there for the fun of it. That is a small district, and they have a very competitive league up there, but if they want to compete at sectionals, they would need to forsake the competitive league in favor of a district "superteam" that consolidates the best of the four teams into one, and they seem to prefer to have a competitive league season and treat sectionals as a tennis vacation, which is fine, but they're not going to win.

I'll call it NJ by a hair over Philly, with Allegheny as a potential monkey wrench since I don't know anything about their team.
 

silverwyvern4

Semi-Pro
What happened to the 5.0 Kid, is he a 5.0D now? Did the NJ 4.0 team get punished for the banned guy?
Middle States:

Philly and NJ both have very strong teams. If it comes down to these two teams, it's going to be very close. I think NJ has a small edge, if they have their top lineup available. NJ singles are better. Philly has one older guy (the MMA pro) and two HS kids playing singles. I had a guy on my team who was my #1 singles player who also plays for NJ, but is only their 3rd or 4th singles. He lost an 11-9 match tb to the #1 singles guy and beat one of the kids pretty handily, and he's not in the top 2 for NJ. The NJ #1 has played 7 matches across the Eastern NJ regionals and NJD districts and has lost 7 total games in those 7 matches with three double bagels (although in a couple, the other teams clearly stacked away from him and gave away S1...). Their S2 lost a match tb to the nationals remnants team's best player, but only after the first three courts had won and they clinched districts. He was up a set at the time.

Doubles are very evenly matched, but if NJ can sweep the singles courts, they will win at least one doubles. The best overall player on the NJ team typically plays doubles. He's 24-0 (including 6-0 in playoff matches) at 4.0 and 6-4 at 4.5, with one 4.5 loss in doubles where the opposing team used an illegal player (a 5.0-level 3-star recruit who hadn't turned 18 yet) and another in singles against a guy who was 3-1 including two singles wins at 4.5 nationals last year. He is a hammer who will be very tough to beat at 4.0. Unfortunately, his presumptive partner, who was a veteran of the 4.0 nationals team last year, was suspended as part of the 4.5 illegal player operation. If the two of them were still playing together, they would be an automatic doubles point. Regardless, they have the horses to find him another partner (and also compete on the two other courts). My prediction is that NJ will win 3-2 in that match.

Central is a team based out of Lebanon Valley College. They are a younger team, and typically pretty good. They can't be overlooked, but I don't think they quite have the horses to compete with the big boys at full strength. Delaware also looks pretty strong. Their captain is good at adding strong players from the Philly teams as a "second chance", so he'll have 4 guys from the second place districts team to use, but he'll be missing all of the 4 common players from the winner, who are 4 of their top doubles players. If those 4 players would play for DE instead of Philly (which won't happen since it includes the Philly captain, LOL), they would be the top contender to beat NJ, but as it stands, they're probably fighting for third with Central. I don't know much about the Allegheny team, although they typically aren't contenders, but who knows, they could be a surprise. The Eastern PA team is just there for the fun of it. That is a small district, and they have a very competitive league up there, but if they want to compete at sectionals, they would need to forsake the competitive league in favor of a district "superteam" that consolidates the best of the four teams into one, and they seem to prefer to have a competitive league season and treat sectionals as a tennis vacation, which is fine, but they're not going to win.

I'll call it NJ by a hair over Philly, with Allegheny as a potential monkey wrench since I don't know anything about their team.
 

J_R_B

Hall of Fame
What happened to the 5.0 Kid, is he a 5.0D now? Did the NJ 4.0 team get punished for the banned guy?
The entire 4.0 team did not get punished, except for losing the one key player who was involved. This happened in a 4.5 match, so it was unrelated to the 4.0 team. That player and the captain of the 4.5 team got suspended for a year. The kid is still listed as 4.0 S, but I assume he is suspended from the USTA as well and it's just not showing in the system. He's going to college next year, so I doubt he's interested in playing USTA (and if he does, he'll have to rate 5.0 S by the guidelines).
 

Ustatennis13

New User
Thanks for the detailed predictions! Sounds like NJ will be tough to beat just based on their singles studs. If you can almost guarantee a win at both singles slots and you gotta count they find at least one doubles court to win. Also that depth is crazy if their 3rd/4th best singles player can go toe to toe with the best singles player from Philly. Guess it will all come down to lineups and availability though. Should be a fun one to watch for!
 

J_R_B

Hall of Fame
Well, right now TennisLink shows a 4.5 team's roster for the NJD 4.0 team. So right now, they'll walk away with it!
Yeah, that's a nationals level 4.5 team. They will definitely crush 4.0 sectionals no problem. LOL. Even their lone "4.0" player is a 3-star HS kid who just hasn't committed to playing in college yet (he just rated 4.0, didn't register for a 4.0 team at all).

There's some issue going on with TennisLink (likely user error...). Jersey Boys is definitely in MS sectionals. They've already withdrawn from Eastern.
 

Ustatennis13

New User
Interesting. I have a few friends on the Philly team so I am rooting for them, but I assumed them vs NJ would be the match that decides it. Maybe AMD throws a wrench into those plans
 

silverwyvern4

Semi-Pro
Looking at TennisRecord, the AMD team as a higher rated top end than both NJ and Philly. Depending on who travels it could be interesting.
New Jersey players can probably play a Friday sectionals match during a lunch break from work. Allegheny has to drive all the way from Pittsburgh!
 

Ustatennis13

New User
New Jersey players can probably play a Friday sectionals match during a lunch break from work. Allegheny has to drive all the way from Pittsburgh!
Thats a great point. 1st match scheduled for the Allegheny team is at 9:30 am on Friday against the NJ team. That match will tell us a lot.
 

schmke

Legend
Think they finally fixed it. Now that they have the correct teams @schmke id love to hear your analysis
If it is based on the rosters and who has played during the year on each team, DE may be the favorite. But I believe @J_R_B has said they will lose players to other teams. So it is hard to handicap it without knowing who will play for which team, and it also throws any tendencies on line-ups out the window that my simulation considers.
 

Ustatennis13

New User
If it is based on the rosters and who has played during the year on each team, DE may be the favorite. But I believe @J_R_B has said they will lose players to other teams. So it is hard to handicap it without knowing who will play for which team, and it also throws any tendencies on line-ups out the window that my simulation considers.
Thanks for the response! And yeah that makes sense. Seems to be so many overlapping players in the middle states area since its so close together.
 

Maverick13

Semi-Pro
New Jersey players can probably play a Friday sectionals match during a lunch break from work. Allegheny has to drive all the way from Pittsburgh!
That is one of those most unfair things about sectionals. AMD has to travel 5+ hours and NJ (as well as Philly and others) get to go home for the night as well as have their full teams available.
 

silverwyvern4

Semi-Pro
That is one of those most unfair things about sectionals. AMD has to travel 5+ hours and NJ (as well as Philly and others) get to go home for the night as well as have their full teams available.
No one forced them to live in Pittsburgh! They should move to NJ, then they can play in Eastern section as well!
 

J_R_B

Hall of Fame
If it is based on the rosters and who has played during the year on each team, DE may be the favorite. But I believe @J_R_B has said they will lose players to other teams. So it is hard to handicap it without knowing who will play for which team, and it also throws any tendencies on line-ups out the window that my simulation considers.
Yeah, just assume the 4 common players with Philly (NR, KR, JB, JC) will all play for Philly and not DE. There shouldn't be any overlap between DE and NJ.
 

J_R_B

Hall of Fame
Yeah, it looks like AMD's team is also the backbone of a team that came in second in their 4.5 league. This is why I said they are a wild card, because I don't know anything about them. NJ had pretty close to their top lineup.

Both overlap players between PATD and DE who played the first match played for PATD. One of the others is the PATD captain, and the 4th is the captain's partner, so expect both of them to play for PATD as well.
 

schmke

Legend
Yeah, it looks like AMD's team is also the backbone of a team that came in second in their 4.5 league. This is why I said they are a wild card, because I don't know anything about them. NJ had pretty close to their top lineup.

Both overlap players between PATD and DE who played the first match played for PATD. One of the others is the PATD captain, and the 4th is the captain's partner, so expect both of them to play for PATD as well.
First three matches all courts as expected except for two with small upsets. And one of those was NJ making it a 3-2 loss instead of 4-1, so AMD played a strong line-up.
 

schmke

Legend
On paper, AMD was probably the #2 team behind DD, but with DD players playing on other teams, AMD could be the best team there. PATD was probably #3.
 

schmke

Legend
AMD/PATD went pretty much as expected. AMD came to play, and hasn't even played their best player, perhaps because he is an A and may be at risk.
 

schmke

Legend
AMD has played mostly their top players. PATD tried to play against that with three of their five lowest rated players. Line-ups matter.
 

Ustatennis13

New User
Jersey with a clunker in their afternoon match. Won both singles matches, had some very questionable doubles pairing and it cost them. AMD seems to have a clear road unless Delaware stops them
 

schmke

Legend
Does 0-2 New Jersey still have a shot if they win their last 3 matches?
My simulation gives them a 0.1% chance. With AMD and DD both 2-0, while yes they have to play each other so one will get a loss, having them both end up with two losses is pretty unlikely.
 

schmke

Legend
Going in to the event, my simulation said AMD or DD, close to a coin flip, then PATD, CPD, NJD, EPD.

Now, it still says AMD/DD coin flip, CPD, PATD, NJD, EPD.
 

schmke

Legend
CPD just beat AMD. Things getting interesting now...
You are right! But if AMD beats DD head to head, they will be likely tied at 4-1 and it come down to tie-breakers. DD likely has the advantage here.

My post a minute ago did not include the CPD win over AMD, not posted yet.
 

Ustatennis13

New User
Any of the AMD guys close to getting strikes? According to tennis record their top 3 guys are all 4.0A and two of them won both of their matches yesterday pretty easily.
 

J_R_B

Hall of Fame
You are right! But if AMD beats DD head to head, they will be likely tied at 4-1 and it come down to tie-breakers. DD likely has the advantage here.

My post a minute ago did not include the CPD win over AMD, not posted yet.
Do they? AMD got an extra court vs PATD compared to DD and their loss was just 3-2. DD's court record looks good because they have already played EPD. AMD need to ensure they get 5-0 vs EPD then NJ plays DE now. If DE wins and gets extra courts vs NJ, they're still definitely ahead even with a loss, but if they go 3-2 when AMD goes 5-0 then the courts will be 15-5 vs 14-6, which would mean AMD would win with a 3-2 victory since the 2nd tb is head-to-head.
 

schmke

Legend
Do they? AMD got an extra court vs PATD compared to DD and their loss was just 3-2. DD's court record looks good because they have already played EPD. AMD need to ensure they get 5-0 vs EPD then NJ plays DE now. If DE wins and gets extra courts vs NJ, they're still definitely ahead even with a loss, but if they go 3-2 when AMD goes 5-0 then the courts will be 15-5 vs 14-6, which would mean AMD would win with a 3-2 victory since the 2nd tb is head-to-head.
So right now, AMD is 3-1 / 14-6 while DD is 3-0 / 12-3. DD gets NJD this afternoon and then they have their head-to-head.

If DD wins 3-2 they'll be 4-0 / 15-5 and then the winner of AMD/DD will punch their ticket to Nationals as an AMD 3-2 would have them tied, and then the head to head win would advance them. If DD can beat NJD 4-1 then they can lose 3-2 to AMD and still take first place.
 
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