Minimum Expected performance of Top players at AO 2019

[Deleted member 763024]

Based on how they ended 2018, what is a performance level below which you'll consider a player's showing at the AO to be disappointing? (in terms of round reached)-

I'll start with a few

Roger Federer - Semi Final appearance

- He's defending champion and has a ton of points on the line. After the off-season and training block if his game isn't any better for the issues plaguing him in the second half of the year, I'd say that will be a big disappointment. It'll only get tougher as the year progresses and Roger needs a great start to the season to have any hope of being a slam contender the rest of the year.

Novak Djokovic - Finals appearance

- I mean this one is self-explanatory. If he has anything less than a finals showing at the AO, for the level he'd been playing at in 2018 save a couple of matches, I will say it's a disappointing showing. A slam win here is almost expected given he's the top among favorites.

A.Zverev - Semi Final appearance

- He's been to the quarters of slams before. The WTF title was a big boost to his confidence hopefully and a turning point with Lendl on board. If Sascha does not make the Semis, it'll be big blow to any talk of slam chances in 2019

Rafa Nadal - Quarter Finals

- Not sure about how his body feels coming off of surgery and a long layoff from the sport. The upside is that there are few expectations and thus pressure. The downside is that if Rafa does not do well yet again at the AO, it adds to his string of disappointments down under - a place he should do better given his play.

Murray/Wawa - 3rd Round

- Yeah they're coming off of injury breaks but we also expect some of the former glory to sparkle. 3rd round for someone of their caliber is a low bar. I'd be disappointed if they can't make it even that far.


Take it away. Give us your min expectations of certain players

 

[Red Rick]

Murray and Wawrinka might as well draw Djokovic and Nadal first.

I mean, there's things that are likely, but the only certain minimum is the 1st round.

- I'd say Djokovic is a huge favorite to win, and if he doesn't it's anyone's guess when he loses.
- Fed gets a semi at most I think, most likely result being a QF or semi.
- Nadal is 100% dependent on his health. The way I see it, very few people will beat him if he doesn't break down physically.
- Zverev can do Zverev things. If you think he's guaranteed to make the semi with his history, I got a few bridges to sell you
- Murray and Wawa will probably be playing decent, I'll say I don't expect either of them to lose to chumps, but neither will be favorites vs a top 10 player, unless Murray plays Isner

 

[Deleted member 763024]

Murray and Wawrinka might as well draw Djokovic and Nadal first.

I mean, there's things that are likely, but the only certain minimum is the 1st round.

- I'd say Djokovic is a huge favorite to win, and if he doesn't it's anyone's guess when he loses.
- Fed gets a semi at most I think, most likely result being a QF or semi.
- Nadal is 100% dependent on his health. The way I see it, very few people will beat him if he doesn't break down physically.
- Zverev can do Zverev things. If you think he's guaranteed to make the semi with his history, I got a few bridges to sell you
- Murray and Wawa will probably be playing decent, I'll say I don't expect either of them to lose to chumps, but neither will be favorites vs a top 10 player, unless Murray plays Isner

Not asking for predictions. Please see the first line in my post.

What according to you would be a *disappointment* for a certain player if they don't reach a certain round.

Disappointment as in - a chance missed, a regression, an achievable goal squandered, etc

 

[NBP]

Feds either losing in the 3R or reaching the final. He could easily lose early, no way is he a lock for a SF. Djokovic I could see losing a 5 set QF to a big hitter, like Wawrinka in 2014. Nadal I think if he’s healthy would reach at least the QF, and Zverev is anything from 1R to a title.

 

[Deleted member 763024]

I give up. Do folks even read posts or just react to titles?

My post clearly talks about what would be a level below which would be a disappointing showing for a player. Not sure where folks are getting the idea that I'm saying so and so player is a "lock for SF".

 

[Red Rick]

Not asking for predictions. Please see the first line in my post.

What according to you would be a *disappointment* for a certain player if they don't reach a certain round.

Disappointment as in - a chance missed, a regression, an achievable goal squandered, etc

Big 3. Any non win is a disappointment. Simply because they aim to win and at this point in their careers anything less matters **** all.

Murray and Wawrinka, probably a 3rd round, depending on the draw.

Zverev needs probably QF to feel like he's doing well.

 

[oldmanfan]

I give up. Do folks even read posts or just react to titles?

My post clearly talks about what would be a level below which would be a disappointing showing for a player. Not sure where folks are getting the idea that I'm saying so and so player is a "lock for SF".

Don't abandon ship OP !!one11!

I will list my 'disappointment' mark at 1 round before where I think they should 'at least' reach, hence 'disappointment' bc they even failed 1 rounder shorter.

Here are mines:

1 Novak Djoković-QF
2 Rafael Nadal-4R
3 Roger Federer-QF
4 Alexander Zverev-4R
5 Juan Martín del Potro-4R
6 Kevin Anderson-4R
7 Marin Čilić-4R
8 Dominic Thiem-3R
9 Kei Nishikori-4R
10John Isner-3R
11Karen Khachanov-4R
12Borna Ćorić-3R
13Fabio Fognini-3R
14Kyle Edmund-4R
15Stefanos Tsitsipas-3R
16Daniil Medvedev-3R
17Diego Schwartzman-2R
18Milos Raonic-3R
19Grigor Dimitrov-4R
20Marco Cecchinato-2R
21Nikoloz Basilashvili-2R
22David Goffin-3R
23Pablo Carreño Busta-2R
24Roberto Bautista Agut-2R
25Hyeon Chung-3R
26Richard Gasquet-3R
27Denis Shapovalov-3R
28Fernando Verdasco-2R
29Gaël Monfils-3R
30Gilles Simon-3R
31Alex de Minaur-3R
32Lucas Pouille-2R (hasn't won an AO match )

Note: I expect each player to reach 1-round further than listed.

 

[r2473]

Pablo Carreño Busta-Champion

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

Defending their points to keep up their rankings

 

[GabeT]

If Nole is not going to win anything more than 2018 AO (ie reaching QF) is positive because of the points.

 

[Deleted member 763024]

Defending their points to keep up their rankings

Well in some cases even if they don’t defend all their points it may still bode well for a player’s season if they reach a certain stage. (Given how 2018 the ended for them)

I would love to see Roger win for example and defend all his points, but anything less than at least a semi’s showing would be a big step down in the way he was recovering towards the end of 2018.

That’s where the minimum notion comes in. Novak has a lot more upside as does Nadal, but how did their 2018 end? Novak’s on a big high and Nadal’s in surgery so that has to factor into what we expect of them.

 

[True Fanerer]

The changes I'd make as for what OP has.

-Drop Zverev to QF(Even though I have him as 4th favorite just because)
-Raise Rafa to SF
-Raise Murray & Stan to 4th round.

 

[upchuck]

Novak - Failing to win would be a disappointment for Novak. 2019 is a big year for him and will tell us everything we need to know about the likelihood he catches Federer at 20. It all begins here.

Nadal - A quarter-final performance would be good for Nadal, considering his injury issues and the public's expectations of him. Anything less would be disappointing.

Federer - Anything less than a quarter-final would be bad for Federer. A semi-final would be ideal though.

Zverev - The push up or shut up meter is running for Zverev. Failing to make the quarters, or losing to a clearly inferior player while there, would be a very bad result for him.

Del Potro - Considering his issues, making the third round would be nice. Failing to get that far would leave questions about how quickly he can get back to top form.

Anderson, Cilic, Thiem, Khachanov, Coric and Edmund all need to make the fourth round for the Open to be worth their while. Failure to get that far would be a bad result for some of them, suggesting they have backslid.

 

[MeatTornado]

Feds either losing in the 3R or reaching the final. He could easily lose early, no way is he a lock for a SF. Djokovic I could see losing a 5 set QF to a big hitter, like Wawrinka in 2014. Nadal I think if he’s healthy would reach at least the QF, and Zverev is anything from 1R to a title.

If Nadal is truly healthy, he's reaching the final. And the only one that could stop him from winning the whole thing is Djokovic.

 

[NBP]

I give up. Do folks even read posts or just react to titles?

My post clearly talks about what would be a level below which would be a disappointing showing for a player. Not sure where folks are getting the idea that I'm saying so and so player is a "lock for SF".

Apologies, I was skim-reading so I wasn't fully concentrating.

A disapoinment for Djokovic is not winning the whole thing. For Fed it's losing before the SF. For Nadal it's losing before the QF and for Zverev it's losing before the QF.

 

[Atennisone]

Novak - Pretty much has to win, unless he is outplayed by a next gen, he should win.

Federer - Semi-final, should only lose to Novak or the tournament winner

Nadal - Quarter-final seems to be a requirement

Zverev - Needs at least a R4, not sure it'll happen though

Del Potro - R4 again,

 

[Subway Tennis]

Based on how they ended 2018, what is a performance level below which you'll consider a player's showing at the AO to be disappointing? (in terms of round reached)-

I'll start with a few

Roger Federer - Semi Final appearance

- He's defending champion and has a ton of points on the line. After the off-season and training block if his game isn't any better for the issues plaguing him in the second half of the year, I'd say that will be a big disappointment. It'll only get tougher as the year progresses and Roger needs a great start to the season to have any hope of being a slam contender the rest of the year.

Novak Djokovic - Finals appearance

- I mean this one is self-explanatory. If he has anything less than a finals showing at the AO, for the level he'd been playing at in 2018 save a couple of matches, I will say it's a disappointing showing. A slam win here is almost expected given he's the top among favorites.

A.Zverev - Semi Final appearance

- He's been to the quarters of slams before. The WTF title was a big boost to his confidence hopefully and a turning point with Lendl on board. If Sascha does not make the Semis, it'll be big blow to any talk of slam chances in 2019

Rafa Nadal - Quarter Finals

- Not sure about how his body feels coming off of surgery and a long layoff from the sport. The upside is that there are few expectations and thus pressure. The downside is that if Rafa does not do well yet again at the AO, it adds to his string of disappointments down under - a place he should do better given his play.

Murray/Wawa - 3rd Round

- Yeah they're coming off of injury breaks but we also expect some of the former glory to sparkle. 3rd round for someone of their caliber is a low bar. I'd be disappointed if they can't make it even that far.


Take it away. Give us your min expectations of certain players

Roger Federer - 3R

- I have zero expectations for Roger at this year's open. I wouldn't be disappointed or surprised if he loses early. He should reach 3rd round because he always gets a great early draw and will play in mostly night matches and the conditions really are perfectly suited to his type of tennis. He will be looked after, but is not a legitimate threat at major level in 2019 imo.

Novak Djokovic - F

- Novak's current level, his extraordinary history at this event, and his return to full fitness will mean that he will be in the final and most likely win the event.

A.Zverev - 4R-QTRF

- This is the year that Zverev makes his presence known at the majors, with a brilliant run to either the 4R or QTRF, setting the stage for his first consistent year at the majors. Along with success at the AO, he will go deep at 3 of the 4 majors (with a rest period at Wimbledon being the exception).

Rafa Nadal - SF

- Everything is against Rafa at the AO. He is fresh off surgery, and an enforced absence from the game through injury. It also his least preferred HC major in terms of conditions. With that said, my expectations for this post-2017 version of Rafa are so high that IF he is fit and can remain uninjured, I expect him to make SF at least

Andy Murray - 1st Round

- Andy is coming off an injury break, and he is traditionally a slow starter. He needs time to adjust to proper match fitness and matchplay level again, so my expectations are low for him here in Australia. With that said, he is a renowned diesel. If Andy starts well and can find his legs through April and the U.S. Hardcourt swing, look for him to be a factor in time for the heart of the season. The indication is he is giving himself every chance in terms of his fitness and conditioning work but there is no doubt it is going to take a lot of time.

Wawrinka - QTRF

- A fit Wawrinka should still be a consistent force at majors. After almost a full year back in the game, he is ready to return to only a slightly diminished version of the 4-5th best player in the men's game. If he is in form, he is the only player in the men's game besides Nadal on clay and Djokovic on HC where the draw has no impact on his ability to progress. I am not going to say he will definitely reach SF - if his form is off, he is vulnerable to outlier big servers like Anderson.

 

[Sport]

Roger Federer - Semi Final appearance



Rafa Nadal - Quarter Finals

Nope. Nadal losing in the quarterfinals is already ultra-dissapointing taking into account he has reached the SF in the last two GS he has played. On the other hand, Federer has lost BEFORE reaching the SF in the last 2 GS he has played, plus he is 37 years old.

Anyhow, it all depends on the draw. If Nadal has another draw from hell like USO 2018, even losing in the QF is normal. Federer also needs an easy draw in order to reach the SF.

Even Djokovic needs an easy/accessible draw to win the title. There is no way Djokovic is winning the title with this draw:

4R: Khachanov
QF: Zverev/Thiem
SF: Federer/Del Potro
F: Nadal

 

[Sport]

If Nadal is truly healthy, he's reaching the final. And the only one that could stop him from winning the whole thing is Djokovic.

It depends on the draw. Nadal was fully healthy at the US Open 2018, but ended up injured after so many long matches with Khachanov, Thiem and Del Potro. Had he been in Djokovic's draw with Millman and Nishikori, I think he would have reached the final and would have been fresh.

(This is not a criticism to Djokovic, he was playing amazing at the US Open 2018 regardless of the draw, and fully deserved the victory).

 

[MeatTornado]

There is no way Djokovic is winning the title with this draw:

4R: Khachanov
QF: Zverev/Thiem
SF: Federer/Del Potro
F: Nadal

I'll take some of that action.

 

[HetTheGreaterer]

It depends on the draw. Nadal was fully healthy at the US Open 2018, but ended up injured after so many long matches with Khachanov, Thiem and Del Potro. Had he been in Djokovic's draw with Millman and Nishikori, I think he would have reached the final and would have been fresh.

(This is not a criticism to Djokovic, he was playing amazing at the US Open 2018 regardless of the draw, and fully deserved the victory).

Imo nadal was better at uso18 but burnt out by battles with zoning big hitters

 

[Dilexson]

Anything less than a semi would be a disappointment for Zed+Fedal.
In Novak's case anything but a win.

 

[smoledman]

I expect a shock early loss from Fredererererer.

 

[TheGhostOfAgassi]

I’ll be dissapointed if Gulbis isn’t in the RG draw

 

[maratha_warrior]

It depends on the draw. Nadal was fully healthy at the US Open 2018, but ended up injured after so many long matches with Khachanov, Thiem and Del Potro. Had he been in Djokovic's draw with Millman and Nishikori, I think he would have reached the final and would have been fresh.

(This is not a criticism to Djokovic, he was playing amazing at the US Open 2018 regardless of the draw, and fully deserved the victory).

So at least now you understand how hard the draws were for djokovic in 2010 ,11 & 13 US open .and hence his results in favour of Nadal at US Open h2h 2-1 .
This is not Nadals criticism he was too good in those finals ,but yeah draw matters .

 

[Enceladus]

Even Djokovic needs an easy/accessible draw to win the title. There is no way Djokovic is winning the title with this draw:

4R: Khachanov
QF: Zverev/Thiem
SF: Federer/Del Potro
F: Nadal

Djoker had a similarly difficult draw on this year's Wimbledon - and won the title:

3R - Edmund 4:6, 6:3, 6:2, 6:4 (2018 AO semifinalist)
4R - Khachanov 6:4, 6:2, 6:2 (maybe future star)
QF - Nishikori 6:3, 3:6, 6:2, 6:2 (2014 US Open finalist)
SF - Nadal 6:4, 3:6, 7:6(9), 3:6, 10:8 (17-time GS winner)
F - Anderson 6:2, 6:2, 7:6(3) (2017 US Open finalist)

By the way, Zverev can't encounter with Ultron in QF, because Sascha will be the fourth-seed player. And del Potro doesn't suit AO, he has only two QF participations.

 

[Lew II]

Djokovic - champion
Federer - champion
Nadal - champion

These guys play to win.

 

[Lew II]

Djokovic's minimum:

Title win beating Murray, Wawrinka, Del Potro, Federer and Nadal.

Below this, it's disappointing.

 

[Yugram]

Djokovic – Less than a title is dissapointment

Nadal – Less than a title is dissapointment

Federer – SF will be fine result considering how bad he was at GS last time

Zverev – QF just come on, Zveref in a slam SF is still a joke

Del Potro – 4R considering he was injured and never showed great results at AO

Anderson – QF

Thiem – QF

Cilic – SF considering he is the last year finalist

 

[Russeljones]

Grigor to.. oh wait, you said top players..

 

[Deleted member 763024]

Grigor to.. oh wait, you said top players..

Grigor will disappoint regardless of round reached.

 

[OldschoolKIaus]

Nadal - 1st round out - crying about fast courts and injuries

Djokovic - 2nd round out - crying about humidity and that he isn't as popular as Fedal

Federer - WINNING


lol

 

[DSH]

If Sascha does not make the Semis, it'll be big blow to any talk of slam chances in 2019

no, no and no.
sacha can reach the sf, finals and even win a major in 2019 even if he sucks again at the ao 2019.

 

[reaper]

If Sascha does not make the Semis, it'll be big blow to any talk of slam chances in 2019

no, no and no.
sacha can reach the sf, finals and even win a major in 2019 even if he sucks again at the ao 2019.

He can, but that would make it the 8th straight slam at which Zverev has underperformed compared to his ranking. A semi is a good breakthrough for him, anything less is probably a failure.

 

[Slightly D1]

I think Nadal will show signs that he is going to be very good during the summer but I don't feel comfortable betting against his body this early in the season. He will play it conservative and if anything bothers him I think there is a good chance he could withdraw.

If he plays I think a minimum expectation is the QF and hopefully an appearance in the semi's. The rest really depends on who the opponent is.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

Andy Murray r16

 

[Roddick85]

Djokovic : It's his best slam, he's world #1, anything less than a final would be a disappointment.
Federer : Considering his form in the 2nd half of last year, making it to the 2nd week would be somewhat good. I honestly have no expectations for Federer at this point.
Nadal : He's returning from injury, so it doesn't really matter. For me, it's more about displaying decent form and staying healthy, regardless of how deep he goes.
Del Potro : See Nadal. Also even though he plays his best on HC, it seems the AO has never been a great tournament for Del Po.
Zverev : He needs to make the QF in convincing fashion and show he can be a factor in slams. I will admit that I'm not looking forward to this happening though (nothing personal but his game bores me).

And then for the other non-top players with an uncertain future :

Dimitrov : After an atrocious 2018, he needs to find himself again. The AO has been his best slam, so he needs to capitalize on that and bounce back. Hopefully the off season allowed him to re-work his game with Agassi. A QF appearence or better could help him find his confidence again.
Wawrinka : We saw some glimpses of old Stan last summer, but he could never really find his rhythm. Much like Dimitrov, the AO has been good to Stan. A 4th round or better would be nice, as long as he beats players he's supposed to, I think this would indicate progress. He lost matches to a lot of players he had absolutely no business losing to last year. It can't happen again this year.
Murray : Given his condition, I have no expectation for him. I would just like for him to be healthy again and being able to complete his matches, who cares when he loses.

 

[Sport]

Djoker had a similarly difficult draw on this year's Wimbledon - and won the title:

3R - Edmund 4:6, 6:3, 6:2, 6:4 (2018 AO semifinalist)
4R - Khachanov 6:4, 6:2, 6:2 (maybe future star)
QF - Nishikori 6:3, 3:6, 6:2, 6:2 (2014 US Open finalist)
SF - Nadal 6:4, 3:6, 7:6(9), 3:6, 10:8 (17-time GS winner)
F - Anderson 6:2, 6:2, 7:6(3) (2017 US Open finalist)

By the way, Zverev can't encounter with Ultron in QF, because Sascha will be the fourth-seed player. And del Potro doesn't suit AO, he has only two QF participations.

Nope. Khachanov is much better on hard courts than grass (even Nadal destroyed Khachanov 3-0 at Wimbledon 2017). And Delpo and Thiem (on hard courts) are much better than Nishikori and Edumund.

 

[True Fanerer]

Nope. Khachanov is much better on hard courts than grass (even Nadal destroyed Khachanov 3-0 at Wimbledon 2017). And Delpo and Thiem are much better than Nishikori and Millman.

Have to disagree here. He's made it further at Wimbledon than AO or UO and his win % is highest on grass. He may be better on HC, but I wouldn't say he was much better.

 

[Sport]

Have to disagree here. He's made it further at Wimbledon than AO or UO and his win % is highest on grass. He may be better on HC, but I wouldn't say he was much better.

Cause he was facing Nadal maybe? Much better if we look at how he has been absolutely unable to win one set against Nadal or Jokovic at Wimbledon.

 

[True Fanerer]

Cause he was facing Nadal maybe? Much better if we look at how he has been absolutely unable to win one set against Nadal or Jokovic at Wimbledon.

Well I think he's improved since Wimbledon. Right now I'd say he's better on HC just based on results. Of course he has a lot more opportunities on HC. I believe he will be the best of next gen at Wimbledon at some point. Grass is still held down by the old guard more so than any other surface.

 

[Zebrev]

Zverev semifinal

Djokovic final

Roger federer quarter final

Nadal 3rd round

 

[NoleFam]

Nope. Khachanov is much better on hard courts than grass (even Nadal destroyed Khachanov 3-0 at Wimbledon 2017). And Delpo and Thiem (on hard courts) are much better than Nishikori and Edumund.

How is this possibly true?

 

[Sudacafan]

Fedr
(It's been a while I am not reading this)

 

[Sport]

How is this possibly true?

Cause Thiem has a better serve and more weapons than Nishikori, who has no dangerous serve, forehand or backhand. Nishikori is only a tactical player who runs a lot and returns all the balls he can. He is pretty much like Ferrer in that sense.

Thiem destroyed Anderson in 3 straight sets at the US Open 2018 and was displaying a level of play I have never seen in Nishikori.

 

[NoleFam]

Cause Thiem has a better serve and more weapons than Nishikori, who has no dangerous serve, forehand or backhand. Nishikori is only a tactical player who runs a lot and returns all the balls he can. He is pretty much like Ferrer in that sense.

Thiem destroyed Anderson in 3 straight sets at the US Open 2018 and was displaying a level of play I have never seen in Nishikori.

He has a better serve but Thiem does not have his timing on hardcourt. Look at their records on the surface. Nishikori is not like Ferrer because he is more aggressive off the ground. It's incorrect to say he is not dangerous on his ground strokes.

Thiem played great against Anderson but Nishikori has been to the USO final, 2 SFs and 3 AO QFs. That's not even mentioning his superior Masters record. Nishikori is clearly superior on hardcourt.

 

[PMChambers]

Anything but.... Would be under expectation
Djok - Final
Nadal - Final
Federer - SF
Zer - QF
Thiem - QF
Del Potro – 4R
Anderson – QF
Cilic – WF

 

[TripleATeam]

Of course for everyone, it's a disappointment not to win the whole thing, but in my mind the tournament will be a failure for the player if they fail to get to the following round:

Djokovic - Win. He's playing at his favorite slam as the #1 after winning the last 2 slams consecutively. Anything less than a win here will be deemed a failure. However, he is gaining significant points and even just a final will net him enough to remain #1 until at least Canada, assuming a decent year.

Nadal - QF. Admittedly, Nadal's trying to win this one too, but this is more warm up for the one he's the favorite for. He needs to shake off that rust, get into the swing of things, and keep himself from being injured. Less than a QF here and he's less likely to dominate the clay season, where he gets most of his points.

Federer - SF. At 37 years old, I give Federer a pass if he can't win this thing for the 3rd time in a row. However, he is the reigning champ, 6 time winner, and has a lot to lose if he keeps going out early. If he wants to continue being a threat at majors, he needs to show why he is one. A QF and R4 at the last 2 slams would ideally be the outliers, not the status quo.

Zverev - SF. If this 21 (nearly 22) year old can't get to the final 4 and justify his seeding for the first time ever even after winning the WTF and getting a major confidence boost, Zverev ought to be ashamed. If he isn't improving quickly then it's a disappointment. And he's been a disappointment for a while now. A R4 showing guarantees him the #3 spot after the tournament, but he'll want more than that.

Del Potro - R4. With a R3 showing last year and yet another injury late last season, losing in the 4th round would be a great sign that he's recovering quickly and that he can still play tennis at a big level. Admittedly, even R3 could be okay, but less than heartening.

Anderson - R4. With a R1 showing last year, I really can't picture many ways but up to go for our friend Kevin. It would be nice to justify his top 8 seeding, and with the performances he's had in the last 3 majors, I could see a R4. Less would be disappointing and I feel he can probably do better. My expectations aren't too high for him, though.

Cilic - QF. As last year's finalist, a slam winner, and top 8 seed, I'll say less than QF will be disappointing, especially when compared to how far he got last year.

Thiem - R4. Given the fact he's reached the 4th round the last 2 years and he seems to have really improved on the hard courts since then, I believe Thiem should be able to get to the last 16. Past that would just be bonus. He's looking to break out on RG anyhow.

Nishikori - R4. He's had a good 6 years of R4 and QF at the AO before his absence in 2018. Why not continue it? Seeing as he's averaged a QF appearance in the last 3 slams, it would be disheartening not to make it, especially as a top 8 seed by the time it rolls around. However, it'll only be disappointing if he fails to make the round of 16 in my opinion.

Isner - R3. He's been uncharacteristically good in majors for the last 3 slams, but I wouldn't bet on the streak continuing. Isner isn't really top 10 material, but he's got the results. Will they last? Probably not. He'll be out of the top 10 as soon as Miami comes around. But either way, he's top 25 material, so losing before R3 will be bad.

Khachanov - R4. As an up-and-comer, as well as the new rival to Zverev from the Next Gen, he'll need to justify it with at least making the last 16. Past that, tough to tell, but his guy looks like a top 10 player (probably also top 8). I could see him making the last 8, but failing to make the last 16 will be a bit underwhelming after seeing what he can do.

 

[BGod]

I hope Shap makes quarters. Stan & Andy have seeding issues. Wawrinka could make quarters with the right draw. I don't see Zverev past quarters and I do think both Fed & Novak are all but guaranteed to at least make semifinal.

 

[King No1e]

Pablo Carreño Busta-Champion

Printed Circuit Board GOAT