Money Ball - Tennis Edition

[Gasolina]

Watching Money Ball led me to think maybe someone can do it for Tennis.

Say John Isner, his stats for 2012

Service Record Year-to-Date:
477 Aces
60 Double Faults
68% 1st Serve
75% 1st Serve Points Won
56% 2nd Serve Points Won
178 Break Points Faced
75% Break Points Saved
433 Service Games Played
90% Service Games Won
69% Service Points Won

A rough calculation of his service point % would be:
68% 1st Serve x 75% 1st Serves won = 51%
32% 2nd Serve x 56% 2nd Serves won = 18%

Totaling 69%

Say he completely ditches his 2nd serve and just does first serves....
100% 1st serve x 75% 1st Serves won = 75%

As for DF's, you might even say he'll cut it down since he's doing the same serve over and over again. Plus his mobility won't hinder him since he's not going to be chasing balls after his 2nd serve gets punished.

I thought it was just interesting for someone who has a high 1st serve conversion rate to just stick to it.

 

[nereis]

I like the way this is going, because this is the sort of thing that Sampras and Ivanisevic used to do; hit hard serves on both of their serves with very little difference between them.

The only thing that may lower his % wins on serve is:

1. Hitting two first serves may allow opponents to get into a grove with the pace (for example Federer could always track down Roddick's serves).

2. Seeing him hit two first serves may entice returners to go for broke more often, resulting in a more aggressive mentality on their part on return and could result in stronger returns.

3. The psychological aspect of hitting two first serves may result in him not going for as much or nearer the lines on the second serve, resulting in a medium paced serve (still 130mph though) in the middle of the box.

So to really make the most of it, he'll have to throw in enough changeups to keep the opponent guessing. In this respect, instead of going for the heater on the first and the kick on the second, he's randomising entirely.

 

[BorisBeckerFan]

Stats are one thing but this would require a lot more belief in oneself than most humans have. Since we are not just computers that would only rely on logic based on input with out an emotional component, the pressure of loosing the point if you miss would undoubtedly affect your second serve percentage.

 

[zam88]

i've often wondered if some metrics for tennis will change the way it is played at some point.


is a 2nd serve that's slower really a good choice? probably if you are nadal, but probably not if you are Isner or Raonic

 

[OldFedIsOld]

i've often wondered if some metrics for tennis will change the way it is played at some point.


is a 2nd serve that's slower really a good choice? probably if you are nadal, but probably not if you are Isner or Raonic

Isner and Raonic could still serve slower, but add more kick to their second serves and be more effective. The only reason that Nadal doesn't serve that fast is because he only wants to set up the point and not win it straight out(risky). I have to say Sampras' second serve is probably one of the greatest of all time, he could bust out a 110 down the middle or outwide, or kick it 6-7 feet under pressure.

 

[Gasolina]

Isner and Raonic could still serve slower, but add more kick to their second serves and be more effective. The only reason that Nadal doesn't serve that fast is because he only wants to set up the point and not win it straight out(risky). I have to say Sampras' second serve is probably one of the greatest of all time, he could bust out a 110 down the middle or outwide, or kick it 6-7 feet under pressure.

Sampras' was actually what I had in mind. Just stand near the middle of the court and choose to hit T or wide.

Not really sold on "psychological thing". Maybe it's because we have the mentality to "preserve" a point rather than win it. Look at basketball free throws. It doesn't matter if you miss the first, if you practice enough, you can make the 2nd free throw.

Raonic actually has a pretty bad 1st serve conversion %. But his service game conversion is near the top of the atp.

 

[BeHappy]

Well Sampras did it and it worked for him, he averaged 115mph second serves and would double fault around 15 times in a best of 5 set match.

He tended to make them when he needed them, hitting 120mph second serve aces on match point at Wimbledon 1999, and averaging 115mph in his USO QF 2001 against Agassi.
http://youtu.be/t3OFaNDTnP4?t=5m45s


BUT, it DIDN'T really work for Becker, at best he "broke even" in terns of his service winners/unforced errors ratio, and for Ivanisevic? He used to hit 700 double faults a year, it was crazy. This is what it looked like:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hECNfj5G_s


If you don't get that second serve in the box you lose the point. No one in history but Sampras has been able to handle that pressure.