Murray now has the best chance of the top four to win the USO

Tammo said:
It is not about injuries, but his confidence level has dropped tremendously.
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(He's never looked confident at Cincy, and last year he didn't look confident at Canada/Cincy at all. It just takes him a while to adjust to hardcourts after Wimbledon [and after a long holiday]. He adapts quite quickly once the US Open starts)
 
If Andy doesn't suffer any injuries then he has to be considered a contender.

Although I would disagree about him being a candidate for early GS knockout - this year he's really stepped up his early round GS consistency and I expect him to get to the SF without too many difficulties. It's the other events after GS losses where he seems to have problems in early rounds.

The current top 4 players are far enough ahead of the field to take those final 4 GS spots without problems these days. The only caveat being Federer perhaps starting to wane, but he should still get to the SF.

I fancy Andy to get to the final, and sooner or later I reckon he'll cross the finishing line. But he really needs to do it either here or at the Aus Open.
 
I think it's between Djokovic and Murray.

Going by recent form, Roger and Rafa are both prone to getting blasted off the court by big hitters (you could say Murray too), Berdych/Soderling/Delpo and Isner can also cause problems for Rafa just like RG. When serves are on fire then anything can happen.

If Murray can stay healthy and try and finish matches early to conserve energy then he is well in with a shout, same for Novak if his shoulder holds up. The winner of the first SF on Super (bloody stupid) Saturday with the minimum of fuss will be at an advantage.
 
BULLZ1LLA said:
(Nadal has played 63 matches, Djokovic 60)
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Djokovic got further than Nadal in all those events except MC and RG.
Though they played a huge bulk of finals.....Djokovic has been more tired because he stayed the course till the last sunday or saturday.
 
Murray is at the moment the freshest both mentally and physically of all the top 4 players. This could give him the edge.
 
I don't see Berdych being a problem for anyone at the USO. He is retiring in best 2 of 3 matches. What makes anyone think it won't happen in best 3 of 5? Djoker has played too much tennis in the past few months and it showed in Cinci. Nadal is not mentally there right now and has some niggling injuries that will become even worse on the USO hardcourt. If Fed doesn't have to face Tsonga, Berdych, or another big hitter in the draw, this could easily become GS #17 for him. Plus, it looks like Tsonga and Berdych are hurt, too. And in best 3 of 5 neither Tsonga or Berdych will be able to stay in god mode for 3 sets like they can in best 2 of 3.
 
Djoko: still favorite if shoulder OK
Federer and Murray: best change to win against Djoko; don't count Federer out as he knows how to win GSlams
Nadal: out by semi's
Tsonga: long shot
Berdych: very long shot
Soderling: very long shot
Fish: very long shot
 
coloskier said:
I don't see Berdych being a problem for anyone at the USO. He is retiring in best 2 of 3 matches. What makes anyone think it won't happen in best 3 of 5? Djoker has played too much tennis in the past few months and it showed in Cinci. Nadal is not mentally there right now and has some niggling injuries that will become even worse on the USO hardcourt. If Fed doesn't have to face Tsonga, Berdych, or another big hitter in the draw, this could easily become GS #17 for him. Plus, it looks like Tsonga and Berdych are hurt, too. And in best 3 of 5 neither Tsonga or Berdych will be able to stay in god mode for 3 sets like they can in best 2 of 3.
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Didn't Djoko have almost a month off to prep for summer hardcourt season? I don't think he played anything since Wimby. Maybe he is practicing/training too hard or pressure of streak is too much, but he should have had time to rest.
 
TennisCJC said:
Djoko: still favorite if shoulder OK
Federer and Murray: best change to win against Djoko; don't count Federer out as he knows how to win GSlams
Nadal: out by semi's
Tsonga: long shot
Berdych: very long shot
Soderling: very long shot
Fish: very long shot
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(So if Federer is in Nadal's half, you still have Federer as a higher favorite than Nadal? :lol:)
 
Clarky21 said:
I know I do.
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If Federer and Nadal play each other anywhere but indoors Nadal will still win even now IMO. I can see why some would think Federer should win now, especialy on a fast hard court, but Federer is mentally incredibly weak when it comes to playing Nadal, always has been. Also as much of a mess as Nadal is righ tnow, Federer isnt exactly doing better at the moment. He is regularly getting badly outclassed, including in big slam matches in the last year or two, by ball bashers like Tsonga and Berdych who in his prime he would dress down with relative ease.
 
This years is shaping up to be the most wide open in years, with Nadal slumping, Djoker playing great, but he has got to get tired mentally/physically at some point, Murray is always tired mentally at the slams, and Fed, well with the right draw it wouldn't surprise me to see him on the last Sunday, but that could be said for any of the top 4.
 
(Nadal slumping? Nadal struggled at last year's Canada and Cincy Masters too. This year he's played better actually, serving much much much better than last year. And he made the final of Wimbledon by beating Del Potro and Murray. And won Roland Garros before that. Where is the slump?)
 
TennisCJC said:
Didn't Djoko have almost a month off to prep for summer hardcourt season? I don't think he played anything since Wimby. Maybe he is practicing/training too hard or pressure of streak is too much, but he should have had time to rest.
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also thought they had a pretty decent break after wimbledon
 
BULLZ1LLA said:
(Nadal slumping? Nadal struggled at last year's Canada and Cincy Masters too. This year he's played better actually, serving much much much better than last year. And he made the final of Wimbledon by beating Del Potro and Murray. And won Roland Garros before that. Where is the slump?)
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C'mon mate - you can argue that Rafa is still a major threat at the USO (and for the record I'd agree with you) - but Rafa is clearly in a different place to where he was this time last year.

This time last year he wasn't the 2nd best player in the world.

This time last year he wasn't Wimbledon runner up.

This time last year he hadn't lost 5 straight finals to a Serbian guy.
 
batz said:
C'mon mate - you can argue that Rafa is still a major threat at the USO (and for the record I'd agree with you) - but Rafa is clearly in a different place to where he was this time last year.

This time last year he wasn't the 2nd best player in the world.

This time last year he wasn't Wimbledon runner up.

This time last year he hadn't lost 5 straight finals to a Serbian guy.
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(Nadal had lost 4 straight finals to Djokovic before Roland Garros, but Nadal won that. It really doesn't make a difference. And being ranked number 2 only takes the pressure off Nadal and places it on Djokovic, that's a good thing)
 
BULLZ1LLA said:
(Nadal slumping? Nadal struggled at last year's Canada and Cincy Masters too. This year he's played better actually, serving much much much better than last year. And he made the final of Wimbledon by beating Del Potro and Murray. And won Roland Garros before that. Where is the slump?)
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This time last year he hadn't lost every final he'd played against Djoker, he had won the last two slams, and last year he was building towards the US Open, this year he is limping to the US Open with a loss to Dodig?
 
jokinla said:
This time last year he hadn't lost every final he'd played against Djoker, he had won the last two slams, and last year he was building towards the US Open, this year he is limping to the US Open with a loss to Dodig?
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(I don't see the relevance. He served far better at Cincy this year than last year)
 
BULLZ1LLA said:
(I don't see the relevance. He served far better at Cincy this year than last year)
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didnt he lose earlier this year in the summer hardcourt swing than last year..? I thought last year he made semi's of Cincy.. but this year he fell earlier than this.

Anyone who isn't biased delusional can see plainly enough that Nadal is struggling with his confidence. He doesn't look like he's enjoying it this year. A year ago, he was geared up and ready to take the USO, riding a gigantic high of a summer..

This year, the FO probably feels more like a gift than a victory. He was lucky he didn't get Djokovic in the final, otherwise He would be runner up there as well.

Please try to be less delusional.. you're only making a fool of yourself.
 
I love Murray, man. I would dearly love to see him bring out his best game when it matters and prove his doubters wrong. But much as I enjoy the guy, in no way can he be considered the guy with the best chance out of the top four. He hasn't won a slam yet, and all of the others have. That's a huge confidence hill to climb.

But just like every other slam, I'll be cheering for him all the way.
 
Cup8489 said:
didnt he lose earlier this year in the summer hardcourt swing than last year..? I thought last year he made semi's of Cincy.. but this year he fell earlier than this.

Anyone who isn't biased delusional can see plainly enough that Nadal is struggling with his confidence. He doesn't look like he's enjoying it this year. A year ago, he was geared up and ready to take the USO, riding a gigantic high of a summer..

This year, the FO probably feels more like a gift than a victory. He was lucky he didn't get Djokovic in the final, otherwise He would be runner up there as well.

Please try to be less delusional.. you're only making a fool of yourself.
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Nadal made the quarters at Cinci last year,and made the semis at Roger's Cup.

Nadal should thank Federer profusely for allowing him to win a slam this year or else he would have gone slamless. I also agree with you about Nadal not looking like he's enjoying tennis this year. He looks like he would rather be anywhere else than on a tennis court. Bullzilla is a **** in deep,deep denial. There is no convincing him.
 
I think everyone in this thread is going to be pretty disappointed if (when) we end up with another Nadal vs. Djokovic final.
 
Here is my take:

Top favourites:
Federer: for his record at the Open and for his title drought which has to end sometime.
Murray: for his victory at Cinci and for his good record in majors this year.

Lesser favourites:
Djokovic, who is clearly exhausted (if not injured) physically and mentally.
Nadal's poor results on HC is no surprise, but last year he at least had confidence from Wimbledon and great claycourt season, which is not the case this year. He also had a favourable draw last year.

Outside favourites:
Fish, Tsonga

Dangerous floaters:
DelPo, Harrison, Isner,...
 
CDestroyer said:
Nadal is going out early. His confidence has been in the tank for months.
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(Familiar with the 2009 US Open by any chance? Shattered mentally due to family problems [and loss of Roland Garros] and stomach muscle so damaged that his average 1st serve was 107mph vs Del Potro and similarly slow throughout the event. Yet still reached the Semis [despite a difficult draw, defeating Gonzo and Monfils both rather easily], without even being stretched to 5 sets. US Open is perhaps Nadal's easiest slam when it comes to advancing through to the semis each year - sorry to disappoint)
 
BULLZ1LLA said:
(Familiar with the 2009 US Open by any chance? Shattered mentally due to family problems [and loss of Roland Garros] and stomach muscle so damaged that his average 1st serve was 107mph vs Del Potro and similarly slow throughout the event. Yet still reached the Semis [despite a difficult draw, defeating Gonzo and Monfils both rather easily], without even being stretched to 5 sets. US Open is perhaps Nadal's easiest slam when it comes to advancing through to the semis each year - sorry to disappoint)
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Nadal has been consistently destroying EVERYONE at the French for 6 of the last 7 years, at Wimbledon he has played 5 of the last 6 finals, and at the US Open he has made 3 semis, but somehow the US Open is the easiest slam for him to make the semis, okay.
 
BULLZ1LLA said:
(I don't see the relevance. He served far better at Cincy this year than last year)
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What would be irrelevant, would be if he DID serve better this year versus last, because last year he won everything, and this year he has lost everything, BUT he didn't serve better this year at Cincy, so your post would be where you won't find any relevance.
 
jokinla said:
Nadal has been consistently destroying EVERYONE at the French for 6 of the last 7 years, at Wimbledon he has played 5 of the last 6 finals, and at the US Open he has made 3 semis, but somehow the US Open is the easiest slam for him to make the semis, okay.
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(But right now, after being taken to 5 sets by Isner at Roland Garros, and struggling overall, I would put the US Open ahead of Roland Garros when it comes to easing through the early rounds.

jokinla said:
What would be irrelevant, would be if he DID serve better this year versus last, because last year he won everything, and this year he has lost everything, BUT he didn't serve better this year at Cincy, so your post would be where you won't find any relevance.
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Last year at Cincy was the worst Nadal had served since the 2009 stomach injury. This year, Nadal served FAR better at Cincy, at his 2010 US Open speed already)
 
BULLZ1LLA said:
(But right now, after being taken to 5 sets by Isner at Roland Garros, and struggling overall, I would put the US Open ahead of Roland Garros when it comes to easing through the early rounds.



Last year at Cincy was the worst Nadal had served since the 2009 stomach injury. This year, Nadal served FAR better at Cincy, at his 2010 US Open speed already)
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Do you have the stats to back up your claim that he served better this year at Cinci?
 
BULLZ1LLA said:
(Familiar with the 2009 US Open by any chance? Shattered mentally due to family problems [and loss of Roland Garros] and stomach muscle so damaged that his average 1st serve was 107mph vs Del Potro and similarly slow throughout the event. Yet still reached the Semis [despite a difficult draw, defeating Gonzo and Monfils both rather easily], without even being stretched to 5 sets. US Open is perhaps Nadal's easiest slam when it comes to advancing through to the semis each year - sorry to disappoint)
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I would love to agree with you but in 2009 and 2010, Rafa made quarter and semi before the USO, not the same as opening round and quarter. I'm still hoping he will roar back at USO of course but I know his current level of confidence is not what it was in the last few years, even in 2009 because in 2009 he got defeated by his knee not by 1 particular opponent pounding him and progressively eroding his self-belief. It affects his confidence in a completely different manner, which is why I find it hard to anticipate the near future right now because it's obvious he's experiencing something mentally that he has never gone through before. When has Rafa ever lost 2 finals on clay in straight sets? When has he lost 5 finals to the same guy in slams and masters? It's unprecedented in his career and it's still not clear what will happen next. Hopefully, he'll put all that behind him and come back strong but I still think the situation is quite different from what it was in 2009 and 2010 (and even 2007 when he lost W in a tough 5 setter).
 
BULLZ1LLA said:
(But right now, after being taken to 5 sets by Isner at Roland Garros, and struggling overall, I would put the US Open ahead of Roland Garros when it comes to easing through the early rounds.



Last year at Cincy was the worst Nadal had served since the 2009 stomach injury. This year, Nadal served FAR better at Cincy, at his 2010 US Open speed already)
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Congratulations, you get that he is struggling this year, thus being pushed to 5 at the French, where he usually cruises, but to say that because of this one 5 setter, that now the US Open is suddenly easier for him, is ********, especially since we haven't even seen his performance at this years Open, which I'm fairly certain won't end with him raising the trophy, and if it does, it won't be surprising if there is a 5 setter in there somewhere.
And as to this bogus claim about his serve, explain to me how this superior serve, netted him a loss to Dodig, and two hard fought wins in Cincy, versus last year, where his serve is what won him the Open?
 
BULLZ1LLA said:
(Familiar with the 2009 US Open by any chance? Shattered mentally due to family problems [and loss of Roland Garros] and stomach muscle so damaged that his average 1st serve was 107mph vs Del Potro and similarly slow throughout the event. Yet still reached the Semis [despite a difficult draw, defeating Gonzo and Monfils both rather easily], without even being stretched to 5 sets. US Open is perhaps Nadal's easiest slam when it comes to advancing through to the semis each year - sorry to disappoint)
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We will see twink.
 
jokinla said:
What would be irrelevant, would be if he DID serve better this year versus last, because last year he won everything, and this year he has lost everything, BUT he didn't serve better this year at Cincy, so your post would be where you won't find any relevance.
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That is one of the major factors why Nadal won the Open. The serve took everyone by suprise. His opponents were shocked that they got aced by him.
 
Clarky21 said:
Nadal made the quarters at Cinci last year,and made the semis at Roger's Cup.

Nadal should thank Federer profusely for allowing him to win a slam this year or else he would have gone slamless. I also agree with you about Nadal not looking like he's enjoying tennis this year. He looks like he would rather be anywhere else than on a tennis court. Bullzilla is a **** in deep,deep denial. There is no convincing him.
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Nadal needs to send Fed a very expensive gift for saving his year.
 
glazkovss said:
Here is my take:

Top favourites:
Federer: for his record at the Open and for his title drought which has to end sometime.
Murray: for his victory at Cinci and for his good record in majors this year.

Lesser favourites:
Djokovic, who is clearly exhausted (if not injured) physically and mentally.
Nadal's poor results on HC is no surprise, but last year he at least had confidence from Wimbledon and great claycourt season, which is not the case this year. He also had a favourable draw last year.

Outside favourites:
Fish, Tsonga

Dangerous floaters:
DelPo, Harrison, Isner,...
Click to expand...

How can Federer be the favorite? He's only won one tourney this year, and that was a 250. The fav's IMO are Djokovic and Murray.
 
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