Murray vs Fed’s first 10 GS opponents

[Nadalgaenger]

So if we take Murray 2012-2016 as his highest level (somewhat debatable), how would the Muzz have done in hypothetical matchups against Fed’s first ten GS opponents?
Here’s my best estimate:
2003 W vs Philippousis W
2004 AO vs Safin (coin toss)
2004 W vs Roddick L
2004 USO vs Hewitt W
2005 W vs Roddick W (Muzz figures him out)
2005 USO vs Agassi (coin toss)
2006 AO vs Baghdatis W
2006 FO vs Nadal W
JK. L
2006 W vs Nadal W
2006 USO vs Roddick W

So that’s 6 likely wins. Let’s add one for the two coin tosses. So 7-3.

What do you think?

 

[Lew II]

Meanwhile Murray's first 10 opponents:

Federer
Federer
Djokovic
Federer
Djokovic
Djokovic
Djokovic
Djokovic
Djokovic
Djokovic

Brutal.

 

[Third Serve]

Are we just talking about finals? Because there are some semifinal and quarterfinal opponents who played much better than the final opponents.

Also, it should be noted that you can't really put someone at his highest level into every Slam. If you take Fed at his highest level and put him into 2003-2007, he would win more Slams than he actually did in real life (I know he'd win the other three Slams in 2003, possibly the French Open in 2004, and also AO 2005). The issue is that form fluctuates even in a player's peak years. A more logical choice (if a logical decision can be made in hypotheticals) would be to grab 2012-2016 Murray and literally place him into 2003-2007 in such a way that his 2012 season corresponds with 2003 and so on.

 

[NatF]

Probably beats tired Baghdatis but that's it.

 

[JaoSousa]

So if we take Murray 2012-2016 as his highest level (somewhat debatable), how would the Muzz have done in hypothetical matchups against Fed’s first ten GS opponents?
Here’s my best estimate:
2003 W vs Philippousis W
2004 AO vs Safin (coin toss)
2004 W vs Roddick L
2004 USO vs Hewitt W
2005 W vs Roddick W (Muzz figures him out)
2005 USO vs Agassi (coin toss)
2006 AO vs Baghdatis W
2006 FO vs Nadal W
JK. L
2006 W vs Nadal W
2006 USO vs Roddick W

So that’s 6 likely wins. Let’s add one for the two coin tosses. So 7-3.

What do you think?

Don't take USO 2004 as set in stone. Hewitt only played bad in the 3rd set. Federer was GOATing in the first, and the second was super close. If it was Murray, it would have gone 5.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

Are we just talking about finals? Because there are some semifinal and quarterfinal opponents who played much better than the final opponents.

Also, it should be noted that you can't really put someone at his highest level into every Slam. If you take Fed at his highest level and put him into 2003-2007, he would win more Slams than he actually did in real life (I know he'd win the other three Slams in 2003, possibly the French Open in 2004, and also AO 2005). The issue is that form fluctuates even in a player's peak years. A more logical choice (if a logical decision can be made in hypotheticals) would be to grab 2012-2016 Murray and literally place him into 2003-2007 in such a way that his 2012 season corresponds with 2003 and so on.

All excellent points

 

[Lew II]

Please add Gonzalez.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

 

[RS]

So if we take Murray 2012-2016 as his highest level (somewhat debatable), how would the Muzz have done in hypothetical matchups against Fed’s first ten GS opponents?
Here’s my best estimate:
2003 W vs Philippousis W
2004 AO vs Safin (coin toss)
2004 W vs Roddick L
2004 USO vs Hewitt W
2005 W vs Roddick W (Muzz figures him out)
2005 USO vs Agassi (coin toss)
2006 AO vs Baghdatis W
2006 FO vs Nadal W
JK. L
2006 W vs Nadal W
2006 USO vs Roddick W

So that’s 6 likely wins. Let’s add one for the two coin tosses. So 7-3.

What do you think?

Problem is he would need to reach those finals and 2014 was a million miles away from a prime Murray. He would likely take some losses.

 

[Lew II]

2010-16 Murray went 10-0 in Slam finals and semifinals against non-Big3.

Federer played Big3 in just 2 of his first 11 slam finals.

Connect the dots

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Murray sure beats some of them but never as dominantly as Federer did. I don't think he'd straight-set anyone in this list except Baghs if it's peak Mur (Fred was struggling, ankle or something), and maybe Dickrod 05 again if it's peak Mur. But Fedr often met his toughest opponents pre-final cause the field was deep before 2006.

 

[Mainad]

Probably beats tired Baghdatis but that's it.

Why are you beating up on poor ol' Marcos?

 

[NatF]

Why are you beating up on poor ol' Marcus?

If you switched their draws then I'd back Marcos of course, Murray as always lucking out with Kiefer in the SF and not Nalbandian fresh off winning the YEC.

 

[Mainad]

If you switched their draws then I'd back Marcos of course, Murray as always lucking out with Kiefer in the SF and not Nalbandian fresh off winning the YEC.

Ah Nalbandian, now THERE was a player. If only Murray could have had HIS career.

 

[RelentlessAttack]

The other thing you’ve got to wonder, does he become the same type of consistent all surface threat without the big 3 to chase? They set a very aspirational bar for that whole generation, and we saw the gatekeeper types become very consistent against the field in their attempts to keep up with the big 3/4.

 

[metsman]

Let's see....

12/03 AO - loss to Agassi
12 RG - forget it
12 Wimby - Roddick could very well beat him, 50/50 match at best.
12 USO - hands full vs Nalbandin, then has to play Roddick then a final, forget it.
13 AO/04 AO - has to get through hewitt/nalbandian back to back, and then have enough gas left to play 2 more matches, what exactly is Murray's track record of opponents of that quality at AO? 2015 Berdych?
13 RG - ..
13 Wimby - No.
13 USO - not winning
14 - forget the whole thing
15 AO / 06 AO - could win this
15 RG - lol
15 Wimby - will give him benefit of doubt vs Nadal
15 USO - no
16 AO / 07 AO - Thoroughly mediocre in this tournament, no real confidence to put him over Gonzo
16 RG - no
16 Wimby - no
16 USO - no

Most likely outcome looks like 2-4, let's call it 3 majors...well look at that.

 

[Lew II]

Head to head:

vs Philippoussis 0-0
vs Safin 0-1
vs Roddick 8-3
vs Hewitt 1-0
vs Agassi 0-0
vs Baghdatis 5-3
vs Nadal 7-17
vs Gonzalez 1-2

Basing on h2hs he wins 2004 WI, 2004 UO, 2005 WI, 2006 AO, 2006 UO and has a shot at 2003 WI and 2005 UO.

 

[RS]

Let's see....

12/03 AO - loss to Agassi
12 RG - forget it
12 Wimby - Roddick could very well beat him, 50/50 match at best.
12 USO - hands full vs Nalbandin, then has to play Roddick then a final, forget it.
13 AO/04 AO - has to get through hewitt/nalbandian back to back, and then have enough gas left to play 2 more matches, what exactly is Murray's track record of opponents of that quality at AO? 2015 Berdych?
13 RG - ..
13 Wimby - No.
13 USO - not winning
14 - forget the whole thing
15 AO / 06 AO - could win this
15 RG - lol
15 Wimby - will give him benefit of doubt vs Nadal
15 USO - no
16 AO / 07 AO - Thoroughly mediocre in this tournament, no real confidence to put him over Gonzo
16 RG - no
16 Wimby - no
16 USO - no

Most likely outcome looks like 2-4, let's call it 3 majors...well look at that.

Nice breakdown but i think it is only being based on form in the finals and not before it.

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

He'd win all of them

 

[Nadalgaenger]

Let's see....

12/03 AO - loss to Agassi
12 RG - forget it
12 Wimby - Roddick could very well beat him, 50/50 match at best.
12 USO - hands full vs Nalbandin, then has to play Roddick then a final, forget it.
13 AO/04 AO - has to get through hewitt/nalbandian back to back, and then have enough gas left to play 2 more matches, what exactly is Murray's track record of opponents of that quality at AO? 2015 Berdych?
13 RG - ..
13 Wimby - No.
13 USO - not winning
14 - forget the whole thing
15 AO / 06 AO - could win this
15 RG - lol
15 Wimby - will give him benefit of doubt vs Nadal
15 USO - no
16 AO / 07 AO - Thoroughly mediocre in this tournament, no real confidence to put him over Gonzo
16 RG - no
16 Wimby - no
16 USO - no

Most likely outcome looks like 2-4, let's call it 3 majors...well look at that.

Wait, so 2013 Murray straight sets one of the greatest players in history but when he faces 2005 Roddick he has no chance whatsoever?

 

[Nadalgaenger]

Head to head:

vs Philippoussis 0-0
vs Safin 0-1
vs Roddick 8-3
vs Hewitt 1-0
vs Agassi 0-0
vs Baghdatis 5-3
vs Nadal 7-17
vs Gonzalez 1-2

Basing on h2hs he wins 2004 WI, 2004 UO, 2005 WI, 2006 AO, 2006 UO and has a shot at 2003 WI and 2005 UO.

Philippoussis was basically a poor man’s Raonic. Murray ate Raonic for breakfast in 2016 F.

 

[Lew II]

Remember the best player after Federer in 2003-06 (Roddick) said that the level of tennis was too high for him in 2012.

"I remember in the 2012 Olympics, I played Novak 2nd round. I was unseeded but had won a couple weeks before and won two of the last three tournaments I played in so I was feeling great. I felt like Wimbledon was a place where I could still catch lightning in a bottle, make a bit of a run. Felt great in practice that week, went out 2nd round. Novak was someone who I had a decent record against at that point and he beat me like a drum. I was like a child on the court and I didn't play that bad. I lost two and two on grass. I walked off the court and thought I'm going to go out tomorrow and feel like I'm playing well. He just beat me like a drum and that was one of the first times where I thought this game is getting a little bit different than what I've been used to, these guys are from another planet right now. That one kind of hit home for me. The way he was playing in that moment was eye opening."

 

[Nadalgaenger]

Let's see....

12/03 AO - loss to Agassi
12 RG - forget it
12 Wimby - Roddick could very well beat him, 50/50 match at best.
12 USO - hands full vs Nalbandin, then has to play Roddick then a final, forget it.
13 AO/04 AO - has to get through hewitt/nalbandian back to back, and then have enough gas left to play 2 more matches, what exactly is Murray's track record of opponents of that quality at AO? 2015 Berdych?
13 RG - ..
13 Wimby - No.
13 USO - not winning
14 - forget the whole thing
15 AO / 06 AO - could win this
15 RG - lol
15 Wimby - will give him benefit of doubt vs Nadal
15 USO - no
16 AO / 07 AO - Thoroughly mediocre in this tournament, no real confidence to put him over Gonzo
16 RG - no
16 Wimby - no
16 USO - no

Most likely outcome looks like 2-4, let's call it 3 majors...well look at that.

So Murray has an 8-3 lifetime record vs. Roddick but in your analysis he loses EVERY matchup against him?
I’d take 2004 Roddick over Murray at W but that’s it. 2009 Roddick beat Murray there, but many acknowledge that as one of Roddick’s best career matches. 2009 Roddick really should have beaten Federer in final.

 

[zagor]

Problem is that there's no guarantee he reaches all of those slam finals, you have to navigate the draw. First 10 slam finals was peak Fed, the guy basically didn't lose before semis. Murray was never that consistent aside from AO and Wimbledon and at latter he lost to a worse Roddick than 2003/2004 versions.

 

[zagor]

To add, remove Fed and who knows how good/confident Roddick would have been. I mean, I'd heavily favour Murray over 2005 Wimbledon Roddick for example but that was after A-Rod tried to overhaul his game to challenge Fed, lost his confidence and become a grinder with a big serve. It's a ripple effect.

Also, for a potential 7 slam winner (ATG territory) Murray went down too meekly in many of his slam final losses, even taking into consideration the opposition.

 

[metsman]

Wait, so 2013 Murray straight sets one of the greatest players in history but when he faces 2005 Roddick he has no chance whatsoever?

2004.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

Problem is that there's no guarantee he reaches all of those slam finals, you have to navigate the draw. First 10 slam finals was peak Fed, the guy basically didn't lose before semis. Murray was never that consistent aside from AO and Wimbledon and at latter he lost to a worse Roddick than 2003/2004 versions.

I completely agree. I’m sure he crashes out before at least a couple of these hypothetical finals.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

2004.

Fair enough. ARod looked awesome for the first two sets for sure. I gave him the win there, but it would have been a tight match.

 

[NatF]

To add, remove Fed and who knows how good/confident Roddick would have been. I mean, I'd heavily favour Murray over 2005 Wimbledon Roddick for example but that was after A-Rod tried to overhaul his game to challenge Fed, lost his confidence and become a grinder with a big serve. It's a ripple effect.

Also, for a potential 7 slam winner (ATG territory) Murray went down too meekly in many of his slam final losses, even taking into consideration the opposition.

Basically this.

 

[KINGROGER]

2004-2007

2004
AO - win
RG - win
W - win
USO -

2005
AO - win
RG - loss
W - win
USO - win

2006 -
AO - win
RG - loss
W - win
USO - win

2007
AO - win
RG - loss
W - loss
USO - win

I count 12/16 slams with 04 CYGS and only losses to nadal.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Probably beats tired Baghdatis but that's it.

Yeah, I stopped reading when I got to the ridiculous "coin toss" verdict against Safin. Marat beats any version of Murray ever at the AO or USO in 2004. Hewitt also would almost certainly beaten him at the USO in 2004. It's just someone who never saw any of these former #1 players on court and believes the anti-Fed propaganda that Fed "feasted on a weak era." How could any #1 player be "weak?" Nadal also feasted on plenty of weak players in slam finals:

Puerta
Berdych
Ferrer
Anderson
Thiem (and until he starts winning slams, he's weak)
Medvedev

And all those guys are weaker than any version of Safin or Hewitt and weaker than most versions of Roddick.

 

[Third Serve]

Yeah, I stopped reading when I got to the ridiculous "coin toss" verdict against Safin. Marat beats any version of Murray ever at the AO or USO in 2004. Hewitt also would almost certainly beaten him at the USO in 2004. It's just someone who never saw any of these former #1 players on court and believes the anti-Fed propaganda that Fed "feasted on a weak era." How could any #1 player be "weak?" Nadal also feasted on plenty of weak players in slam finals:

Puerta
Berdych
Ferrer
Anderson
Thiem (and until he starts winning slams, he's weak)
Medvedev

And all those guys are weaker than any version of Safin or Hewitt and weaker than most versions of Roddick.

Safin was super tired in that AO 2004 match, though.

 

[KINGROGER]

LMAO Murray has beat stronger players than Safin at AO... Tsonga, Berdych, 2013 Fed (number 2 in world, Wimbledon champ) etc.

 

[Third Serve]

ROFLMAO Murray has beat stronger players than Safin at AO... Tsonga, Berdych, 2013 Fed (number 2 in world, Wimbledon champ) etc.

ftfy

 

[NatF]

Safin was super tired in that AO 2004 match, though.

Murray might be just as tired going through Hewitt, Nalbandian and Ferrero. I'd back Safin of the QF/SF over basically any Murray at the AO though.

I do think the AO is Murray's best chance to grab slams, he certainly has a shot in years like 04/06/07, most forget how listless he's been at the USO since 2012 so I don't give much chances of winning multiple there. Obviously with his consistency he has a shot at Wimbledon most years but he's not the odds on favourite by any means like Fed was.

 

[Third Serve]

Murray might be just as tired going through Hewitt, Nalbandian and Ferrero. I'd back Safin of the QF/SF over basically any Murray at the AO though.

I do think the AO is Murray's best chance to grab slams, he certainly has a shot in years like 04/06/07, most forget how listless he's been at the USO since 2012 so I don't give much chances of winning multiple there. Obviously with his consistency he has a shot at Wimbledon most years but he's not the odds on favourite by any means like Fed was.

I mean, I can certainly see that happening. But Safin in the QF/SF wasn't the same guy who played in the final. I think it's a lot more likely that Murray loses to somebody like Nalbandian in earlier rounds. But Safin? No way.

Same for USO 2004, I guess. Hewitt was playing some crap tennis in sets 1 and 3, which should be more than enough for Murray to gain a lead. The big obstacle that tournament would have to be Agassi in the QF, though. If Murray gets through that match (and I have doubts that he would), he would likely win the tournament as well.

 

[ibbi]

I think peak 2012 Murray/13 Murray probably beats Philippousis.

Probably beats Safin because Safin was gassed I think by the time he reached that final, plus he plays the sort of way I think would drive Marat nuts.

I think he has minimal chance against 2004 Roddick.

Toss a coin on the Hewitt one. Murray's not going to play aggressively enough to blow Lleyton away the way that Roger did, so who knows what would have happened.

Can probably beat 2005 Roddick as he played most of his semi final on the Saturday.

Don't like his chances that much against Agassi, even if the AA was running on fumes by that point, if he pushed peak Rog that close then I'm sure Andy would struggle (even if Andy maybe thrives in the adverse conditions a bit more than Federer doe... Used to)

Baghdatis another totally out on his feet opponent, though his record against him is hardly spotless, so who knows. In 2012 they played a hell of a match at Wimbledon and that was Baggsy long past his best, Murray rarely had it easy with him, but given the circumstances of this final I'd probably give him the edge.

No chance against Nadal at Roland Garros, at Wimbledon... I mean Rafa beat him there in 2011, now granted Nadal's game had evolved by that point to perhaps be a more efficient grass court player than the very raw version in 2006. It'd be close, I think. I think it's a real shame we never got to see that peak first Lendl era Andy match up with Rafa. Would have been something to see after the 3 straight slam defeats in 2011.

Maybe give him an edge against Roddick in New York, but not much of one. Baby Muzz knocked his ass out of Wimbledon that year, so I'm sure peak Knight of the realm could edge him at the US Open. To me I just always go back to their 09 Wimbledon encounter when I think of this rivalry, and how much better Roddick was when it mattered most.

As massively impressed as I was by Murray in 2012/13, and as leaps and bounds better as he was than he had been previously (or was after) I still do think there was a hint of illusion about some of the biggest stuff he achieved (Would be very interested to see how he fared against Del Potro in the 2012 Olympic semi or 2013 Wimbledon semi. They only played one match during peak Murray period, and Delpo won it pretty handily in the end). Anyway, I probably have him at 6-4 or 5-5 here.

 

[NatF]

I mean, I can certainly see that happening. But Safin in the QF/SF wasn't the same guy who played in the final. I think it's a lot more likely that Murray loses to somebody like Nalbandian in earlier rounds. But Safin? No way.

Same for USO 2004, I guess. Hewitt was playing some crap tennis in sets 1 and 3, which should be more than enough for Murray to gain a lead. The big obstacle that tournament would have to be Agassi in the QF, though. If Murray gets through that match (and I have doubts that he would), he would likely win the tournament as well.

I was basically agreeing with you, Safin was dead in the final but Murray might be exhausted too if he struggles to navigate through a tough few rounds.

Hewitt wasn't bad in set one besides some untimely doubles, he just got steamrolled by a GOAT'ing Fed, Murray would give Hewitt way more chances to get into rallies - when Fed played like a human being in set 2 Hewitt was actually quite good. Regardless I don't see Murray beating Agassi in the QF anyway.

 

[Lew II]

Murray's 2010-16 Grand Slam score against non-Big3 --> 131-7 (94.9%)

 

[skypadq]

Murray's 2010-16 Grand Slam score against non-Big3 --> 131-7 (94.9%)

wow .... only 7 loss in 7 year span ?
amazing ...

 

[RS]

Murray's 2010-16 Grand Slam score against non-Big3 --> 131-7 (94.9%)

2010 RG
2010 USO
2012 RG
2013 USO
2014 Wim
2015 USO
2016 USO
So 131-7 which is actually scary.

 

[NatF]

I count 6 losses right?
2010 RG
2010 USO
2012 RG
2014 Wim
2015 USO
2016 USO

It's a little deceiving as he wasn't winning any slams in 2014 Big3 or not Big3 for a start...

 

[mike danny]

First, it really depends on the forms Murray is in.

For example, I don't think 2016 AO Murray beats 2007 AO Gonzalez or even 2004 AO Safin.

Then, you also have to take into account that at the USO, Murray was pretty much done after 2012. I don't think he is beating any of those guys at the USO. And even in 2012 we have no guarantee he would beat 2004 USO Agassi. Was really fortunate that Cilic choked in 2012.

At RG, forget it. He might win it in 2004, but even that is not 100% likely.

And finally, you have to be sure that he reaches all those finals to begin with.

 

[RS]

It's a little deceiving as he wasn't winning any slams in 2014 Big3 or not Big3 for a start...

Take out 2014 then still massive.

 

[NatF]

It really depends on the forms Murray is in.

For example, I don't think 2016 AO Murray beats 2007 AO Gonzalez or even 2004 AO Safin.

Then, you also have to take into account that at the USO, Murray was pretty much done after 2012. I don't think he is beating any of those guys at the USO. And even in 2012 we have no guarantee he would beat 2004 USO Agassi. Was really fortunate that Cilic choked in 2012.

At RG, forget it. He might win it in 2004, but even that is not 100% likely.

And finally, you have to be sure that he reaches all those finals to begin with.

lol no, in Fed's place he loses to Kuerten.

 

[Lew II]

I count 6 losses right?
2010 RG
2010 USO
2012 RG
2014 Wim
2015 USO
2016 USO

2013 UO to Wawrinka

Losses were to Wawrinka, Ferrer, Dimitrov, Berdych, Nishikori, Anderson, so ZERO losses in 7 years to players who have never been top5.

 

[mike danny]

lol no, in Fed's place he loses to Kuerten.

Ah, yes, hence the not 100% likely.

 

[RS]

2013 UO to Wawrinka

Losses were to Berdych, Wawrinka, Ferrer, Dimitrov, Wawrinka, Wawrinka, Nishikori... so ZERO losses in 7 years to players who have never been top5.

My bad. Murray back/hip was gone then though.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

Murray's 2010-16 Grand Slam score against non-Big3 --> 131-7 (94.9%)

Powerful evidence. How does this compare to Big 3’s record against non Murray/Big 3 field?

 

[NatF]

Take out 2014 then still massive.

Impressive consistency for sure. Not like he beat players of in-form Roddick/Hewitt/Agassi/Nadal's caliber often enough to think he sweeps them like he did Tsonga and Berdych - those guys can actually match him on HC and grass.

I don't think Murray was necessarily much better in slams in those years than say 2009 (aside from 12-13) where he fell to non-Big3 opponents playing great tennis. IMO tennis became more top heavy afterwards and he rarely met tough opponents before the SF.

Inb4 Lew trolls us with his win/loss outside of Big4 stats.