Murray's return game burying the needle

bjsnider

Hall of Fame
As this season has progressed, it's possible Murray has developed the greatest return game in the recorded history of the sport. Murray's offseason began after IW/Miami, and since then he's gotten better and better.

Currently, Murray is second on the tour in return games won at 37% (Nadal is first with 42%, but that's misleading as the sample size is much smaller). Never before in Murray's career has his return game been this productive. He was at 36% in 2011. Last year he was at 31%.

But then we look even deeper. Murray's hard court return game numbers are mind-boggling. He's winning 44% of those. If that's how the season ends, it would be the highest hard court return percentage ever recorded. Only three times before has any player won at least 40% of those games, and that was Chang (41%) in 1992, Agassi (40%)in 1995 and Djokovic (41%) in 2011 (this season Nadal and Del Potro could also do it, in smaller sample sizes).

Incidentally, Murray's 37% overall is deceptively low. One, for whatever reason, his return game was only 7th overall on clay this year, and he played a lot of clay matches, and two, he played more grass matches than anyone (12, undefeated on the surface), and the grass return numbers are low for everyone. Nadal and Djokovic didn't play many grass matches, and are not therefore having their averages lowered by those results.

I'm pointing this out in case anyone thinks Murray's results this year, especially since the end of RG, are due to lack of great competition. If that were true, Murray's stats would be about the same as any other season. That is clearly wrong:

Code:
Year    Per%  Rank

2006    33    3
2007    32    3
2008    29    6
2009    33    2
2010    30    5
2011    36    2
2012    31    4
2013    31    5
2014    32    4
2015    31    4
2016    37    2

In 2011, Murray's return game overall was nearly as good as this season, but his hold game was much worse (80% then, 85% now).

I'm not saying that, from beginning to end, in every match, this is the greatest return game ever. But, right now, and for the past few months, it may be. Murray hasn't been blown into a power vacuum, he's kicked down the door that leads to the top of the game by his own efforts to improve.
 

NatF

Bionic Poster
lotta wasted words and conclusions for bs stats lol

Also worth pointing out that out of 39 matches on HC, only 6 have been against top 10 players and just 14 versus the top 20. Compare that to Djokovic who has played 20 top 20 players and 12 top 10 players (out of 45 matches). Murray's been racking up the stats and wins against comparatively softer opponents.
 

Gary Duane

Talk Tennis Guru
The ATP's numbers for the Rio Olympics are really off as @Gary Duane has reported in the past. Murray's numbers and anyones who went deep are inflated.
It's a bit confusing right now because we have conflicting stats.

Normally Tennis Abstract is right on the money, and that is very close to the ATP in % of points won on serve and return. The problem with the ATP is that they don't have the right amount of points. There are either too many on serve or too many on return.

The gold standard on return points is around 46-47%, and Murray is around 44.6%, according to TA:

Its stats are on points

Serve: 67.1%
Return: 44.6%
All: 55.4%

I suspect an error there, but not a huge one. Murray should be winning around 60% of games. I can't check it without totaling games for every match, and I don't have the patience. That's the job of the ATP, which is absolutely screwing up this year.

TA could show games won, but choose not to. That data is there, so for that site it would just be a bit of programming.

If TA is right about % of points, Murray is doing very well returning this year. I don't think it is fair to say that this is only because of weaker competition. I don't buy the whole weak era argument, because it says that everyone is getting weaker. At the top?

Maybe...
 

Gary Duane

Talk Tennis Guru
As this season has progressed, it's possible Murray has developed the greatest return game in the recorded history of the sport. Murray's offseason began after IW/Miami, and since then he's gotten better and better.

Currently, Murray is second on the tour in return games won at 37% (Nadal is first with 42%, but that's misleading as the sample size is much smaller). Never before in Murray's career has his return game been this productive. He was at 36% in 2011. Last year he was at 31%.

But then we look even deeper. Murray's hard court return game numbers are mind-boggling. He's winning 44% of those. If that's how the season ends, it would be the highest hard court return percentage ever recorded. Only three times before has any player won at least 40% of those games, and that was Chang (41%) in 1992, Agassi (40%)in 1995 and Djokovic (41%) in 2011 (this season Nadal and Del Potro could also do it, in smaller sample sizes).

Incidentally, Murray's 37% overall is deceptively low. One, for whatever reason, his return game was only 7th overall on clay this year, and he played a lot of clay matches, and two, he played more grass matches than anyone (12, undefeated on the surface), and the grass return numbers are low for everyone. Nadal and Djokovic didn't play many grass matches, and are not therefore having their averages lowered by those results.

I'm pointing this out in case anyone thinks Murray's results this year, especially since the end of RG, are due to lack of great competition. If that were true, Murray's stats would be about the same as any other season. That is clearly wrong:

Code:
Year    Per%  Rank

2006    33    3
2007    32    3
2008    29    6
2009    33    2
2010    30    5
2011    36    2
2012    31    4
2013    31    5
2014    32    4
2015    31    4
2016    37    2

In 2011, Murray's return game overall was nearly as good as this season, but his hold game was much worse (80% then, 85% now).

I'm not saying that, from beginning to end, in every match, this is the greatest return game ever. But, right now, and for the past few months, it may be. Murray hasn't been blown into a power vacuum, he's kicked down the door that leads to the top of the game by his own efforts to improve.
Where are you getting these stats from? Not the ATP...
 
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