My Deep Dive into Alcaraz's Best Surface

[Berrettini_Fan]

Alcaraz is unlike the Big 3 in that there is no clearly best surface for him. So using my tennis expertise, I have analyzed what should actually be Alcaraz's best surface.

Hard Courts: The problem with hard courts is that 90% of the tour is most competent on this surface. Alcaraz's best surface may very well be hard courts but it's hard to judge since it's also the favorite surface of his top rivals Sinner, Medvedev, Zvererev, and Djokovic. Therefore, any advantage Carlos may have on hard courts wouldn't be substantial simply due to depth of competition. Verdict: Not his best surface

Clay Courts: Posters on TTW keep saying clay will be the surface where Carlos dominates. But is there any evidence of this? IMO saying Clay is Carlos's best surface is merely based off the stereotype of Spaniards excelling on Clay. Thusfar, Alcaraz has not dominated clay to the degree of Rafa, Borg, or even Thomas Muster outside of RG. The only Clay Masters title he's won is at Madrid (also the only Clay Masters Final he's made). In contrast, he's won 2 different HC Masters (Indian Wells and Miami) and made the Finals of a third HC Masters (Cincinnati).

Furthermore, Clay exposes his weaknesses while mitigating his strengths. The longer rallies increase his unforced error rate due to his high-risk style. His drop shots are easier to track down. His not-great serve is slowed down further by the clay. His excellent return of serve is nullified by everyone else having better return of serve stats on clay. Verdict: Probably not his best surface

Grass Courts: So far, Alcaraz has won more grass court slams than on other surfaces. So it's easy to say this is his best surface. The counter-argument is that the competition on grass is the most shallow so perhaps it's just relatively easier for Carlos to dominate.

On the other hand, everything I said about Clay is the opposite here. Grass augments his strengths while mitigating his weaknesses. His serve goes from good to great due to the extra pace and unpredictable bounce. His high-risk style works better for the shorter rallies. His drop shots are tougher to track down on the slick surface. His excellent return of serve becomes more of an advantage where breaking serve is toughest. Verdict: Probably his best surface

 

[TheSlicer]

Agree, i have watched a lot from Carlos and though his Style can adapt to EVERY surface (even indoors, i think he Will end Up playing great there) his pure Game is not made for clay, and so far, his best peak level has been shown on grass, which highlights his touch shots and net game, something he is miles ahead from most of the tour, i just feel he has many more ways to win on grass, whereas on Clay or hard, sometimes its just too hard to reach the net and he has to. Basically overpower oponents, which is not easy depending on conditions and some oponents just like to stand on the baseline and retrieve hard shots, so yeah, so far, grass, and its quite obvious

 

[FeroBango]

Agree, i have watched a lot from Carlos and though his Style can adapt to EVERY surface (even indoors, i think he Will end Up playing great there) his pure Game is not made for clay, and so far, his best peak level has been shown on grass, which highlights his touch shots and net game, something he is miles ahead from most of the tour, i just feel he has many more ways to win on grass, whereas on Clay or hard, sometimes its just too hard to reach the net and he has to. Basically overpower oponents, which is not easy depending on conditions and some oponents just like to stand on the baseline and retrieve hard shots, so yeah, so far, grass, and its quite obvious

He is the reigning indoor grass slam champion after all.

 

[MeatTornado]

I agree with everything in the OP.

I was always hesitant to call grass his best because the sample size was too small before this year. But I also just didn't see the argument for clay being his best when it came with so many negatives for his game.

 

[Incognito]

Can’t choose between clay and grass. He moves equally well on both. His fh is also effective on both surfaces.

 

[tudwell]

I do think grass is his best surface at the moment but I also think you understate the advantages of clay a little bit. On fast surfaces he has a tendency to be rushed on the forehand side at times, something that's harder to do on clay and can help him keep his neutral/defensive errors lower (while still making attacking errors when he gets impatient). While grass does help amplify the serve, I don't think clay makes it a weakness at all. The kicker is his biggest strength and that's only boosted by the high bounce of clay, plus everyone's serve stats drop, so the gap between him and the field isn't as large. And while opponents may have a fraction of a second longer to track down the dropper on clay, players also tend to camp a bit further behind the baseline, especially when you factor in the heaviness of Carlos's forehand.

Also, Carlos seems perfectly capable of returning just about anywhere in the court, but he does seem most comfortable a bit further back taking a bigger cut at the ball – something that's safest, even somewhat rewarded, on clay while often being a vulnerability on hard and grass. So in some ways I think clay makes it easiest for him to play the game he wants to play, even if his incredibly broad toolkit makes him just as adept (or more adept) on other surfaces.

I agree that grass rewards his variety and touch more than anywhere else and helps amplify his advantages on movement and the return (and cover weakness on the serve, etc.) – but clay isn't too terribly far behind in my opinion.

 

[Tano]

Alcaraz is looking good on grass; he will win 9 Wimbledon titles.

 

[FeroBango]

Alcaraz is looking good on grass; he will win 9 Wimbledon titles.

Far-fetched but inshallah may that happen. I'd only be personally okay with him beating the Rog record.

 

[Tano]

Far-fetched but inshallah may that happen. I'd only be personally okay with him beating the Rog record.

Alcaraz will reach higher heights never seen at Wimbledon.

 

[FeroBango]

Alcaraz will reach higher heights never seen at Wimbledon.

I mean this is an unpopular opinion here, but I truly believe even in 2022, Alcaraz showed glimpses of a stupendous peak. His is already one of the highest peaks in general personally.

 

[Sport]

I'm surprised people reject hard just cause he lost both at the USO 2023 and the AO 2024.

What if he wins the next USO? He'd have 2 USO. And 2 USO > 1 RG.

The sample size is still too small and he has Slams on all surfaces. I'd rather wait a bit before attempting to foresee his most succesful surface.

 

[FeroBango]

I'm surprised people reject hard just cause he lost both at the USO 2023 and the AO 2024.

What if he wins the next USO? He'd have 2 USO. And 2 USO > 1 RG.

The sample size is still too small and he has Slams on all surfaces. I'd rather wait a bit before attempting to foresee his most succesful surface.

USO is where he broke through, mins you!

 

[Djumhur]

He will probably end up with 5 Wimbledons 3-4 RG and 3 HC slams. I think Sinner will win most of HC slams next 10 years

 

[Berrettini_Fan]

I'm surprised people reject hard just cause he lost both at the USO 2023 and the AO 2024.

What if he wins the next USO? He'd have 2 USO. And 2 USO > 1 RG.

The sample size is still too small and he has Slams on all surfaces. I'd rather wait a bit before attempting to foresee his most succesful surface.

My analysis isn't based on results alone but also on how much facets of his game are strengthened/weakened on each surface relative to the field. Sure, it is a small sample size so far and perhaps elements of his game will change over time. But most players by his age we have a good consensus on their best surfaces - including Big 3 - so I figured it would be interesting to analyze where he stands now. Plus I want to debunk the myth espoused so much on TTW that Clay will automatically be his best surface going forward.

 

[TheSlicer]

He is the reigning indoor grass slam champion after all.

Yeah but just because he got Lucky, sinner is much stronger on grass and indoors, i cant see anybody stopping him from CYGS Next year except injury

 

[FeroBango]

Yeah but just because he got Lucky, sinner is much stronger on grass and indoors, i cant see anybody stopping him from CYGS Next year except injury

Almost fell for it

 

[beltsman]

Alcaraz is unlike the Big 3 in that there is no clearly best surface for him. So using my tennis expertise, I have analyzed what should actually be Alcaraz's best surface.

Hard Courts: The problem with hard courts is that 90% of the tour is most competent on this surface. Alcaraz's best surface may very well be hard courts but it's hard to judge since it's also the favorite surface of his top rivals Sinner, Medvedev, Zvererev, and Djokovic. Therefore, any advantage Carlos may have on hard courts wouldn't be substantial simply due to depth of competition. Verdict: Not his best surface

Clay Courts: Posters on TTW keep saying clay will be the surface where Carlos dominates. But is there any evidence of this? IMO saying Clay is Carlos's best surface is merely based off the stereotype of Spaniards excelling on Clay. Thusfar, Alcaraz has not dominated clay to the degree of Rafa, Borg, or even Thomas Muster outside of RG. The only Clay Masters title he's won is at Madrid (also the only Clay Masters Final he's made). In contrast, he's won 2 different HC Masters (Indian Wells and Miami) and made the Finals of a third HC Masters (Cincinnati).

Furthermore, Clay exposes his weaknesses while mitigating his strengths. The longer rallies increase his unforced error rate due to his high-risk style. His drop shots are easier to track down. His not-great serve is slowed down further by the clay. His excellent return of serve is nullified by everyone else having better return of serve stats on clay. Verdict: Probably not his best surface

Grass Courts: So far, Alcaraz has won more grass court slams than on other surfaces. So it's easy to say this is his best surface. The counter-argument is that the competition on grass is the most shallow so perhaps it's just relatively easier for Carlos to dominate.

On the other hand, everything I said about Clay is the opposite here. Grass augments his strengths while mitigating his weaknesses. His serve goes from good to great due to the extra pace and unpredictable bounce. His high-risk style works better for the shorter rallies. His drop shots are tougher to track down on the slick surface. His excellent return of serve becomes more of an advantage where breaking serve is toughest. Verdict: Probably his best surface

1) Define "best." Best in relation to the current tour, or best absolute level?
2) Clay might allow his droppers to sit up, but droppers are also more effective on clay because the opponent plays much further back.

 

[Tallawah Tennis]

My analysis isn't based on results alone but also on how much facets of his game are strengthened/weakened on each surface relative to the field. Sure, it is a small sample size so far and perhaps elements of his game will change over time. But most players by his age we have a good consensus on their best surfaces - including Big 3 - so I figured it would be interesting to analyze where he stands now. Plus I want to debunk the myth espoused so much on TTW that Clay will automatically be his best surface going forward.

Thanks man. Good topic in the ocean of banality / trolling on this forum.
Carlitos' appeal for me includes the versatility he has shown, the all surface prowess. His ability to learn and adapt is superb, for example when he won Queens / Wimby back to back, and defended Wimby this year after winning the FO on clay without much of a warm up at Queens. He's excellent on clay, but I agree McEnroe's assessment that clay is not Carlitos' best surface. I love his game on grass in particular, so I'll vote for this surface as his best to date.
He has defended titles at a high level on all 3 surfaces too. Indian Wells /Madrid/ Wimby. Keen to see how he does on the hard courts for the remaining season.

 

[The Guru]

I get the argument for grass but you are looking at things very specifically to reach you conclusions. There are absolutely strengths in Alcaraz's game that are bolstered by clay and he does have some relative weaknesses on grass. I think when Carlos reaches his best form and has more stability in his game I think clay will be his best surface but I don't think it's unreasonable to make the claim that it's grass right now. I think the chasm of competition difference on the two surfaces has made a significant difference in the results thus far though.

 

[Backspin1183]

Can’t choose between clay and grass. He moves equally well on both. His fh is also effective on both surfaces.

With a lack of strong competitors on grass, I reckon Alcaraz is poised to reign supreme in grass-court tournaments for years to come, making it his best surface by default.

 

[ND-13]

Grass is prone to upsets. And Alcaraz goes for sleep every now and then in matches that could cost him

I think he may get 10-12 FO. He never seems to get tired and has a great 5 set record.

 

[jackson vile]

Time will tell, but he may be the best grass court player ever, especially if he just keeps up with the 136mph serves

 

[Incognito]

With a lack of strong competitors on grass, I reckon Alcaraz is poised to reign supreme in grass-court tournaments for years to come, making it his best surface by default.

Fed, Rafa, Murray, Roddick and djoke were the elite on grass in the previous era. Their peaks didnt coincide with each other.

Carlos is the Fed of his generation

 

[MichaelNadal]

Time will tell, but he may be the best grass court player ever, especially if he just keeps up with the 136mph serves

Wouldn't that be something

 

[NeutralFan]

1) Define "best." Best in relation to the current tour, or best absolute level?
2) Clay might allow his droppers to sit up, but droppers are also more effective on clay because the opponent plays much further back.

But droppers get more bite and uneven bounce on grass compared to clay and that's advantage, also his serve and returns are more of a weapon on grass and he has no trouble penetrating against opponents on grass , I have seen him struggling to penetrate when someone gives every ball back ( Djokovic first set RG, Z when he beat in 4) i would say Wimbledon is his favourite slam by miles.

 

[socallefty]

Djokovic doesn’t really have a weaker surface as his game translates well across all surfaces. He just won less on clay because Nadal is better than him on clay and elevates his game there. I think Alcaraz is going to be similar and not really have a surface that he is weaker on. He seems to move well on all surfaces which is really a key to playing well on all of them - also his game doesn‘t have a specific weakness for high bounce, low bounce, fast or slow surface. If a rival doesn’t pop up who is better on grass or clay, he will probably win at a similar rate on all surfaces.

 

[beltsman]

But droppers get more bite and uneven bounce on grass compared to clay and that's advantage, also his serve and returns are more of a weapon on grass and he has no trouble penetrating against opponents on grass , I have seen him struggling to penetrate when someone gives every ball back ( Djokovic first set RG, Z when he beat in 4) i would say Wimbledon is his favourite slam by miles.

Yes I agree with all that

 

[Ray Mercer]

Alcaraz also didn’t play basically any of the clay season and showed up and won the French. If he was 100% healthy he very likely would have absolutely dominated this clay season. He’s the best defender in the game, hits heavy topspin on the forehand and his touch/drop shot is money. The surface where he will likely struggle the most is fast hard which is almost extinct nowadays.