My research on Djokovic - Wawrinka [includes videos]

[ST_spitzertelescope]

Having watched every point and reading many comments, I wanted to investigate a little further so I undertook some research of my own and present it along with a couple theories.

I'd first like to outline that I have focused specifically on the head to head - because in my opinion, this is ultimately what it is about. Djokovic might be playing incredibly, but it's about the match up. So with that said, wikipedia backs it up with some insight:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novak_Djokovic#Djokovic_vs._Wawrinka

In this intriguing matchup, Djokovic leads 17–4, but the two have contested numerous entertaining matches, including four five-setters at Grand Slam level.[203] Wawrinka and Djokovic have played three consecutive Australian Open years, each match going to five sets, and a five-setter in the US Open: in the 2013 Australian Open fourth round, which Djokovic won 12–10 in a fifth set; at the 2013 US Open semifinals, which Djokovic won 6–4 in a fifth set; and at the 2014 Australian Open quarterfinals, which Wawrinka won 9–7 in a close fifth set. Wawrinka's win broke Djokovic's impressive run of 14 consecutive semifinals in Grand Slam play, ended a 28-match winning streak, and prevented Djokovic from capturing a record fifth Australian Open crown.[204] Djokovic got revenge in the 2015 Australian Open, winning 6-0 in the fifth set, but again it went the distance.[205] At the 2015 French Open final, Wawrinka defeated Djokovic in four sets, denying him his first French Open victory and a personal career Grand Slam.

So to comment here - stan wasn't new to stopping long runs of djokovics wins, the one before stopped his 28-match streak, in fact.

I then looked at the head to head stats to find if there was anything interesting:
http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=D643&oId=W367
Quote from warinka's wiki:

Wawrinka considers clay his best surface and his serve and backhand his best shots.

Since we are talking about the french open, I have focused my attention on the clay.
Now the last clay match was Madrid in 2012:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_MyKuCq21k
French open highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzLC_CVvLdw

I found this video quite fascinating after seeing the final.

Here's what I picked up:

• Without doubt, warinka is stronger in terms of power off both wings
• djokovic's best chance of winning is upon a good serve and being immediately aggressive from the weak return
• Another way djokovic won the groundies was pushing wawrinka back with a good angle, stan stepping back and hitting a slow - higher bouncing ball which gave djokovic time on the ball to hit it hard. I think that's why he ran away against murray in the 5th set so easily as murrays pace really hit a slump
• Djokovic had just as much trouble on general groundies with wawrinka
• It was certainly a tight contest and going from the particular selected points they show, it looked as though a lot of the points depended on the quality of the serve
• There's a number of points which mirror that of the final as well, such as stan going wide with the backhand, keeping up with djokovics defence with ease, stans huge serving, so it's all really quite similar
• A difference I noticed was djokovics serve putting stan on the backfoot and actually stepping back quite far as a result on the rally, he won a number of points that way
• One of the ways djokovic was winning the rallies back in madrid was stepping in and hitting a backhand for a powerful, and tightly angled backhand, but as seen in the RG highlights he wasn't able to do this.
  Here is a direct comparison to illustrate:
  RG: https://youtu.be/JzLC_CVvLdw?t=2m15s
  M: https://youtu.be/U_MyKuCq21k?t=6m42s
  OK I realise he's hitting a backhand instead of a forehand, but the ball is in about the same place but he's able to hit a winner. Stan is even further back at madrid. He just couldn't get enough power.
• Another very worthy point is that stan hits the ball deep in the centre, djokovic then tries to compete with pace and then stan creates an unforced error as his shot is pushed just too far. He created this error numerous times in both matches.

Having thought about this, it would make sense the novak team watched that madrid match. Perhaps he and the team realised what he was up against [on this particular surface] and nole knew just how difficult it would be.

One revealing method is to watch the madrid video on 2x speed and you can see in far better clarity the methods both players use. If you press the cog icon and then click 'Speed' Normal > to '2', it then speeds it up a lot. As you'll notice, djokovic rarely wins the baseline rallies and its more about the serves than anything else. Djokovic does get some points from returns on the baseline that catch stan off-guard but there really isn't anything between them.

I'm starting to think that the main reason stans been loosing isn't his skill, it was his confidence and anyone watching those two videos I provided will be able to see that clearly.

Summary:
Stan has always been a huge battle for nole, they were playing back when they were 19 and 21 years of age, and stan even had a win over him back then.

I believe that since pro players often mention that you have to create your own pace on clay, that stan really excels in this and why nadal (powerful upper strength) has been so dominant on the surface. Nole just can't get enough power on his shots unlike stan.

Some people on the forum mention how stan is considered a bit on the larger side, but clearly that body mass goes into his favour, whereas nole is quick and slim, and he can get away with his strength on most surfaces being that the ball bounces better and carries on the momentum.

From early on in the 39-point rally, stan made a huge statement by showing noles pace wouldn't affect him and it made an impact on his confidence. In that rally, you can see djokovic becomes cautious very early on - stepping back as he is ware of the angles and pace stan can create. From then on it was a case of grinding it out until stan hopefully ran out of steam.

Here's another (very similar) point comparison:
RG - murray https://youtu.be/0vLKPnIx3fI?t=2m3s
M - stan - https://youtu.be/JzLC_CVvLdw?t=2m11s
As you'll notice, all players are in very similar positions, but instead of nole hitting it down the line, he goes back to stan for a safety shot. The only way djokovic was going to win (in my opinion) was going for the lines, as shown in some of the points he achieved at madrid.

I'd be happy to know your thoughts on my theories and would be great to hear your own as well, especially if you can include some video footage as I find that particularly effective in outlining a point.

Thanks.

 

[Bhagi Katbamna]

Nice analysis. I think one has to think why Novak could not step in today. It was because Stan was hitting harder and deeper.

 

[Nathaniel_Near]

Excellent thoughts and analysis, and cogent. Very well put together! Thanks for your efforts here.

Fundamentally, Stan is very capable of swamping Djokovic with his superior strength and raw power off both wings. Djokovic loves to control from the centre and not cede ground from the baseline, but when he's forced to react he gets "stuck" in meaningless tactical patterns that don't really serve to get him out of the hole he starts digging himself into regarding court positioning. He couldn't hurt Stanimal nor control him. He can play him equally regarding ascendancy in rallies and then be more consistent and leak less errors but if Stanimal is engaged then generally the main thing Djokovic does is try to resist and wear Stan down.

The key for me isn't just Wawrinka swamping Djokovic with depth but he often doesn't use too much width. When Djokovic is forced to create his own angles deep from centre court, he often presses too hard. Djokovic feeds off width and trusts in his ability to create angles, redirect more precisely than his opponent and cover the open court better than his opponent.

Don't offer Djokovic so much width. It makes him uneasy and freezes his offence.

 

[Keizer]

Having watched every point and reading many comments, I wanted to investigate a little further so I undertook some research of my own and present it along with a couple theories.

I'd first like to outline that I have focused specifically on the head to head - because in my opinion, this is ultimately what it is about. Djokovic might be playing incredibly, but it's about the match up. So with that said, wikipedia backs it up with some insight:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novak_Djokovic#Djokovic_vs._Wawrinka


So to comment here - stan wasn't new to stopping long runs of djokovics wins, the one before stopped his 28-match streak, in fact.

I then looked at the head to head stats to find if there was anything interesting:
http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=D643&oId=W367
Quote from warinka's wiki:

Since we are talking about the french open, I have focused my attention on the clay.
Now the last clay match was Madrid in 2012:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_MyKuCq21k
French open highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzLC_CVvLdw

I found this video quite fascinating after seeing the final.

Here's what I picked up:

• Without doubt, warinka is stronger in terms of power off both wings
• djokovic's best chance of winning is upon a good serve and being immediately aggressive from the weak return
• Another way djokovic won the groundies was pushing wawrinka back with a good angle, stan stepping back and hitting a slow - higher bouncing ball which gave djokovic time on the ball to hit it hard. I think that's why he ran away against murray in the 5th set so easily as murrays pace really hit a slump
• Djokovic had just as much trouble on general groundies with wawrinka
• It was certainly a tight contest and going from the particular selected points they show, it looked as though a lot of the points depended on the quality of the serve
• There's a number of points which mirror that of the final as well, such as stan going wide with the backhand, keeping up with djokovics defence with ease, stans huge serving, so it's all really quite similar
• A difference I noticed was djokovics serve putting stan on the backfoot and actually stepping back quite far as a result on the rally, he won a number of points that way
• One of the ways djokovic was winning the rallies back in madrid was stepping in and hitting a backhand for a powerful, and tightly angled backhand, but as seen in the RG highlights he wasn't able to do this.
  Here is a direct comparison to illustrate:
  RG: https://youtu.be/JzLC_CVvLdw?t=2m15s
  M: https://youtu.be/U_MyKuCq21k?t=6m42s
  OK I realise he's hitting a backhand instead of a forehand, but the ball is in about the same place but he's able to hit a winner. Stan is even further back at madrid. He just couldn't get enough power.
• Another very worthy point is that stan hits the ball deep in the centre, djokovic then tries to compete with pace and then stan creates an unforced error as his shot is pushed just too far. He created this error numerous times in both matches.

Having thought about this, it would make sense the novak team watched that madrid match. Perhaps he and the team realised what he was up against [on this particular surface] and nole knew just how difficult it would be.

One revealing method is to watch the madrid video on 2x speed and you can see in far better clarity the methods both players use. If you press the cog icon and then click 'Speed' Normal > to '2', it then speeds it up a lot. As you'll notice, djokovic rarely wins the baseline rallies and its more about the serves than anything else. Djokovic does get some points from returns on the baseline that catch stan off-guard but there really isn't anything between them.

I'm starting to think that the main reason stans been loosing isn't his skill, it was his confidence and anyone watching those two videos I provided will be able to see that clearly.

Summary:
Stan has always been a huge battle for nole, they were playing back when they were 19 and 21 years of age, and stan even had a win over him back then.

I believe that since pro players often mention that you have to create your own pace on clay, that stan really excels in this and why nadal (powerful upper strength) has been so dominant on the surface. Nole just can't get enough power on his shots unlike stan.

Some people on the forum mention how stan is considered a bit on the larger side, but clearly that body mass goes into his favour, whereas nole is quick and slim, and he can get away with his strength on most surfaces being that the ball bounces better and carries on the momentum.

From early on in the 39-point rally, stan made a huge statement by showing noles pace wouldn't affect him and it made an impact on his confidence. In that rally, you can see djokovic becomes cautious very early on - stepping back as he is ware of the angles and pace stan can create. From then on it was a case of grinding it out until stan hopefully ran out of steam.

Here's another (very similar) point comparison:
RG - murray https://youtu.be/0vLKPnIx3fI?t=2m3s
M - stan - https://youtu.be/JzLC_CVvLdw?t=2m11s
As you'll notice, all players are in very similar positions, but instead of nole hitting it down the line, he goes back to stan for a safety shot. The only way djokovic was going to win (in my opinion) was going for the lines, as shown in some of the points he achieved at madrid.

I'd be happy to know your thoughts on my theories and would be great to hear your own as well, especially if you can include some video footage as I find that particularly effective in outlining a point.

Thanks.

Wawrinka weighs 179 lbs. Djokovic is 176 lbs. Wawrinka isn't as big as some people think, his mass is just likely concentrated in different places.

 

[Smasher08]

Wawrinka weighs 179 lbs. Djokovic is 176 lbs. Wawrinka isn't as big as some people think, his mass is just likely concentrated in different places.

They've got very different builds and body shapes. And although Djok is listed as an inch taller than Stan, it's always looked to me like it's more like two.

 

[reaper]

Wawrinka weighs 179 lbs. Djokovic is 176 lbs. Wawrinka isn't as big as some people think, his mass is just likely concentrated in different places.

The listed player weights are very consistent. I don't think they change from the time a player joins the tour until they retire.

 

[Zetty]

The listed player weights are very consistent. I don't think they change from the time a player joins the tour until they retire.

Yea Stan definitely looks closer to 190 or so.

 

[spinovic]

Nice work. Just to add my own two cents...

Clay is Stan's best surface, and that being the case, he moves better on clay than anywhere else. To me, that explains why an in-the-zone Stanimal can dispatch Djokovic with "relative" ease on clay, but the same form in Australia, where he's not quite as good and Djokovic is at his best, results in the match basically being a toss-up.

Lost amidst all the awe at Stan's overwhelming power is how well he defended. There were numerous occasions where he forced Djokovic to hit additional great shots to win points, or even extracted a few errors by making Novak play one more shot.

Additionally, the drop shot tactic that Djokovic used to such great effect for 14 days to fluster opponents was not nearly as effective against Wawrinka. Stan defended/played that particular shot as well as anyone who faced Djokovic at Roland Garros.

So on top of having to deal with the Stan's pace, Djokovic was having to come up with 2-5 more shots to put Stan away when he did get the initiative and one of his favorite and most effective tactics (drop shot) was a crapshoot against Stan.

Stan's power can make him a threat anywhere. But, the clay makes him even tougher to deal with because he moves great on clay and that, combined with the slower speed, makes him a formidable defender on the surface, in addition to his offense. On other surfaces, he's far easier to attack and move around. He doesn't move as well, nor does he have that little bit of extra time to load up on his groundstrokes.

People are criticizing Djokovic for not being more offensive, but I wonder in hindsight, if his best chance wouldn't have been to just dig in and try to run everything down in hopes of frustrating Wawrinka with his defense. Not giving ground on the baseline just resulted in 1) errors from Stan's pace and 2) teeing it up for Stan on the other end. Defending is a grueling way to live, but Djokovic is as good as anyone has ever been when he's not letting anything past him. I'm not saying he'd have won with that strategy, but maybe he could have frustrated Wawrinka with it and got him off his game.

 

[spinovic]

And, I agree. Regardless of official numbers, Stan looks thicker and shorter. Noticeably so on both.

 

[mmk]

Official numbers mean nothing. The other French Open champ this year is listed as 155 lbs, and that can't be close.

 

[Phonco]

I think I'll have to disagree with the notion of Wawrinkas movement being better on clay. Clay may be his best surface in terms of movement, but I don't think it is as profound as spinovic makes it out to be. Most likely, the slow speed and high bounce covers up Wawrinkas lack of explosive speed and lets him stay in the rally long enough with slices until he gets a nice shot he can thump with his groundstrokes.

Additionally, it doesn't help that Djokovic is not moving moving Stan around enough. I saw way too many shots down the middle of the court, often times short. He was letting Wawrinka dominate the rallies. Maybe Djokovic was trying to reduce angles for Wawrinka and force errors, which is fine, but I think Novak made a tactical error by not switching game plans when plan A was not working. It is similar to Novaks USO semi where he let Nishikori dictate the rallies the whole match and didn't adjust. He stayed with his plan and let Wawrinka just pile on the highlights.

Djokovics drop shot plan was good, it's just he overused it way too much. Don't let that 4th set skew the perception. If you compared the execution from the first two sets to the 4th, it was awful. You could see the height was way too high and the times he hit the drop shot was poor. Novaks shot selection and decision making was horrid in that set. He was probably trying to end the points early due to the fatigue from trying to extend/defensive rallies rather than going on the attack.

As great as Stan played, there were still a few kinks that I saw that could be exposed. One, Wawrinka is still very inconsistent. He still has these facepalm error patches that could have cost him the set(s). Luckily he regrouped pretty quickly, but it could have been very costly.

Two, for a guy with such huge groundstrokes, he has some subpar returns. He is one of the few pros I've seen that will consistently use a slice return down the middle, especially on the forehand side. I think he can get away with it on clay since the opponents return shot is slowed down enough for Wawrinka to respond, but it doesn't remove the fact that he is allowing his opponent to dictate. I can't help but feel like a player with a good net game or a player who is offensive or offensively clicking would burn him on those floaty slice returns. Djokovic might have been able to tilt Wawrinka a bit had he picked off those floaty returns and force Wawrinka to hit a return.

Don't take this as a knock against Wawrinka. Wawrinka hit some fantastic shots from ridiculous positions that really showcased how on fire he was that day. I'm not saying Djokovic would have won or anything, but I do think he could have done more to challenge and push Wawrinka.

 

[ST_spitzertelescope]

Nice work. Just to add my own two cents...

Clay is Stan's best surface, and that being the case, he moves better on clay than anywhere else. To me, that explains why an in-the-zone Stanimal can dispatch Djokovic with "relative" ease on clay, but the same form in Australia, where he's not quite as good and Djokovic is at his best, results in the match basically being a toss-up.

Lost amidst all the awe at Stan's overwhelming power is how well he defended. There were numerous occasions where he forced Djokovic to hit additional great shots to win points, or even extracted a few errors by making Novak play one more shot.

Additionally, the drop shot tactic that Djokovic used to such great effect for 14 days to fluster opponents was not nearly as effective against Wawrinka. Stan defended/played that particular shot as well as anyone who faced Djokovic at Roland Garros.

So on top of having to deal with the Stan's pace, Djokovic was having to come up with 2-5 more shots to put Stan away when he did get the initiative and one of his favorite and most effective tactics (drop shot) was a crapshoot against Stan.

Stan's power can make him a threat anywhere. But, the clay makes him even tougher to deal with because he moves great on clay and that, combined with the slower speed, makes him a formidable defender on the surface, in addition to his offense. On other surfaces, he's far easier to attack and move around. He doesn't move as well, nor does he have that little bit of extra time to load up on his groundstrokes.

People are criticizing Djokovic for not being more offensive, but I wonder in hindsight, if his best chance wouldn't have been to just dig in and try to run everything down in hopes of frustrating Wawrinka with his defense. Not giving ground on the baseline just resulted in 1) errors from Stan's pace and 2) teeing it up for Stan on the other end. Defending is a grueling way to live, but Djokovic is as good as anyone has ever been when he's not letting anything past him. I'm not saying he'd have won with that strategy, but maybe he could have frustrated Wawrinka with it and got him off his game.

Thanks. Another good post and good points. I was hoping it would go to a 5th but Stan just kept on. Perhaps Stan knew if it went to a 5th that Djokovic confidence might sway the momentum slightly. It was as if Stan was thinking it's a now or never.

I think it made a great story line though, because for the most part of the year - we all got lulled into a sense that he was down and out and there he came into the french like a sniper and just took everyone by surprise.

It's fascinating watching his matches prior to Djokovic knowing how much damage and success he was having on opponents.

To address your point about grinding it out - I saw gile Simon track down his hard hitting shots and it just gave Stan a better and harder hit for the next, so perhaps Djokovic knew that wouldn't work watching the previous players.

I also agree on the dropper - it was tragic seeing that time and time again. And Djokovic lobs kept going out - presumably because Stan was good at smashing them.