Nadal’s chances of winning the 2022 calendar year Grand Slam?

[recreationalplayer]

‘Nole removed himself from the AO by being an anti-vaxxer. (I’m not trying to get into a debate about the apparent miscommunication between the AO officials and the Australian government). And it appears the FO along with the French government will also not allow him to enter their tournament. Throughout the year should ‘Nole continue to refuse to receive a vaccination, in effect removing himself from Wimbledon and the USO as they will certainly follow suit, what are Nadal’s chances of winning the calendar year Grand Slam? And how ironic would that be?

 

[Deleted member 758560]

very high

 

[TheNachoMan]

very low

 

[Backspin1183]

At least 9% high.

 

[am1899]

No,

 

[darthrafa]

none
he will not join either sw19 or uo

 

[Nadal_King]

Extremely tough, chances right now 5%, if wins Rg 10% as main challenge is in 2nd half of slam season

 

[vanioMan]

As a Rafa fan I'd be happy even if AO is the only slam he wins that year. Though surely I'd like to see at least one more GS win, preferably Wimbledon

 

[Yugram]

Unlikely, but possible.

 

[mistik]

Unlikely i expect huge down fall just like AO 2009 win.This takes a lot out off him.

 

[ND-13]

The right question to ask is 'Is Djokovic allowed to play ?'

 

[Jokervich]

Reasonably high assuming Djokovic doesn't play any slams this year and Nadal doesn't get injured. Although I'm sure if he did get to the US Open having won RG and Wimbledon, he would lose due to a mixture of extreme pressure + mental and physical exhaustion like Djokovic did last year.

 

[Spencer Gore]

No chance.

 

[urban]

Wait and see. But at RG he should be favorite in any case, with or without Djokovic. He should stay completely fit, and plan his schedule on clay more cleverly than in the past, so that he can peak at RG. The new night matches at RG could be a bit tricky, because the topspin isn't working that well. But he still is 7-2 over Djoker at RG and 14 is a better number than 13.

 

[puppybutts]

i wouldn't be surprised if nadal never plays wimbledon again. grass makes players too injury prone

 

[martinezownsclay]

Nadal winning Wimbledon again would be a minor miracle so that is already enough to say virtually none. I would give him a slim shot at his second 3 slam year, which would be Australia, French, US Open- the French is fairly likely but not on lock like in the past. The U.S Open is not that likely, but given his track record there which is by far his 2nd best slam, he always has a shot.

 

[Genious at Work]

‘Nole removed himself from the AO by being an anti-vaxxer. (I’m not trying to get into a debate about the apparent miscommunication between the AO officials and the Australian government). And it appears the FO along with the French government will also not allow him to enter their tournament. Throughout the year should ‘Nole continue to refuse to receive a vaccination, in effect removing himself from Wimbledon and the USO as they will certainly follow suit, what are Nadal’s chances of winning the calendar year Grand Slam? And how ironic would that be?

No chances whatsoever. Also, Djokovic will soon "take" the vaccine in an undisclosed Serbian facility and get a shiny new certificate.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

I’m not joking that if Djokovic took the year off or is banned from all slams, seriously it could happen lmao. He’s the big favourite at the french and only Djokovic can test him or potentially beat him again. At Wimbledon he’s probably 2nd favourite behind Djokovic if he’s fit and healthy considering Fed is done, no Murray on grass like the past and the younger guys suck on that surface. Rafa has a great track record at us open as well so again if he’s in good shape he’d go close. Tennis fans should hope for Djokovic to comeback or this year could be just a 1 man show. Rafa doesn’t fear the younger guys on any surface as proven. They all still fear him.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Nadal winning Wimbledon again would be a minor miracle so that is already enough to say virtually none. I would give him a slim shot at his second 3 slam year, which would be Australia, French, US Open- the French is fairly likely but not on lock like in the past. The U.S Open is not that likely, but given his track record there which is by far his 2nd best slam, he always has a shot.

Nadal winning Wimbledon wouldn’t be a miracle. He proved in 2018 and 2019 he can still play well on grass again and only top performances by Djokovic and Federer stopped him. Now that Fed is semi retired and there is doubt around Djokovic, the younger guys suck on grass he’s at least 2nd favourite and potentially favourite if Djokovic wasn’t there for some reason. Basically Djokovic has to be there or Rafa will think he can win that again after so many years.

 

[D.Nalby12]

Zero

 

[weakera]

65%

 

[ArliHawk]

Nil. He’s not winning Wimbledon. I’d say French strong possibility and US Open a decent proposition. Depends on if his body holds up.

 

[junior74]

That's up to BullGoat and The Chosen One, I guess.

 

[bullfan]

I am not sure Nadal is convinced he can push his body that far anymore. If he couldn’t do it when he was younger, I doubt he is more confident now.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Nil. He’s not winning Wimbledon. I’d say French strong possibility and US Open a decent proposition. Depends on if his body holds up.

Who’s stopping him at Wimbledon bar Djokovic?

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

I am not sure Nadal is convinced he can push his body that far anymore. If he couldn’t do it when he was younger, I doubt he is more confident now.

All Rafa needs is Djokovic not in the tournament and he can push it is far as he wants.

 

[Daniel Andrade]

0

 

[Chanwan]

As a Rafa fan I'd be happy even if AO is the only slam he wins that year. Though surely I'd like to see at least one more GS win, preferably Wimbledon

Congrats on yesterday @vanioMan, you and Rafa deserve it.

On OP: The chance obviously depends on how many Djokovic is playing. Should Djokovic be out of all of them, the chances are still small though as it would both require Rafa to stay somewhat uninjured 3 more times this year and to cope with the mental pressure going for 4 in a row should he get the next 3. But it would be hilarious if the old injured bull got close to a CYGS at 36

One more this year would be massive for him. Doubt that many saw Rafa taking 2 in 2022 a month or two ago.

 

[NeutralFan]

No chance.

Very deep insight Mr.Gore

 

[NeutralFan]

Unlikely, but possible.

His heavy clay schedule makes him too tired till he reaches Wimbledon .

 

[martinezownsclay]

Nadal winning Wimbledon wouldn’t be a miracle. He proved in 2018 and 2019 he can still play well on grass again and only top performances by Djokovic and Federer stopped him. Now that Fed is semi retired and there is doubt around Djokovic, the younger guys suck on grass he’s at least 2nd favourite and potentially favourite if Djokovic wasn’t there for some reason. Basically Djokovic has to be there or Rafa will think he can win that again after so many years.

Who knows. I am not feeling it. Those two years were surrounded by a bunch of losses to dozens of rogue opponents. We will see, but I will be very surprised if it happens.

 

[Yugram]

His heavy clay schedule makes him too tired till he reaches Wimbledon .

We will see. Ask me in December and I’d tell winning AO is impossible, even though I’m a big believer. Sometimes unexplainable things happen.

 

[tsp_207]

He's a lock for RG so he'll be halfway there by June. But the toughest slam for him to win will be Wimbledon especially as he'll be susceptible to big servers in the early rounds on the fresh grass. And he'll most likely have to go through Djokovic later on where I don't see him coming through. Best hope is Djokovic gets knocked out early or isn't allowed to play (which is unlikely given England are getting rid of all covid restrictions and vaccine passports in the coming months).

 

[Nole_King]

If I were to schedule for Nadal, I would skip the upcoming hard court swing and go light in the clay run ups to FO in order to remain battle ready for French + Wimbledon. His body needs to be as fit as possible for him to take full advantage of potential absence of Novak.

 

[Spencer Gore]

Very deep insight Mr.Gore

What more do you need? He has absolutely no chance.

 

[Sampras-Bruguera 1993]

no he just needs to keep taking 6 months off and keep winning slams. He does better with long abscences as history as shown. Overplaying isn't it thing

 

[The Big Foe fan]

‘Nole removed himself from the AO by being an anti-vaxxer. (I’m not trying to get into a debate about the apparent miscommunication between the AO officials and the Australian government). And it appears the FO along with the French government will also not allow him to enter their tournament. Throughout the year should ‘Nole continue to refuse to receive a vaccination, in effect removing himself from Wimbledon and the USO as they will certainly follow suit, what are Nadal’s chances of winning the calendar year Grand Slam? And how ironic would that be?

Even RG is in question. Leave aside CYGS.

 

[Milanez82]

‘Nole removed himself from the AO by being an anti-vaxxer. (I’m not trying to get into a debate about the apparent miscommunication between the AO officials and the Australian government). And it appears the FO along with the French government will also not allow him to enter their tournament. Throughout the year should ‘Nole continue to refuse to receive a vaccination, in effect removing himself from Wimbledon and the USO as they will certainly follow suit, what are Nadal’s chances of winning the calendar year Grand Slam? And how ironic would that be?

He never had a chance nor ever will
That dream at best will end at Wimbledon.

 

[PilotPete]

1 in 4(6)x7![e(-pi)^2

 

[recreationalplayer]

i wouldn't be surprised if nadal never plays wimbledon again. grass makes players too injury prone

Never thought of grass surface causing more injuries than hard or clay but I'd guess he'll play if he wins FO.

 

[UnderratedSlam]

Zero point zero point... zero, point...

 

[titoelcolombiano]

I don't care # 21 was amazing and #22 in '22 would be a bonus

 

[Sander001]

He'll get to 47 quicker than you think

 

[aldeayeah]

Bringing up this kind of question before wimbledon is over is pointless.

 

[roysid]

‘Nole removed himself from the AO by being an anti-vaxxer. (I’m not trying to get into a debate about the apparent miscommunication between the AO officials and the Australian government). And it appears the FO along with the French government will also not allow him to enter their tournament. Throughout the year should ‘Nole continue to refuse to receive a vaccination, in effect removing himself from Wimbledon and the USO as they will certainly follow suit, what are Nadal’s chances of winning the calendar year Grand Slam? And how ironic would that be?

He is anyway favorite for Roland Garros.
But at wimbledon, things are not straightforward. Im assuming djokovic would play. But even without djokovic, others like Roger, kyrgios etc have a chance to beat him.

And at US Open also, lot many can beat him

 

[anarosevoli]

50% x 5% x 10% = 0.25 % = he needs to win the Australian Open 400 times for a CYGS

 

[Nadal - GOAT]

50% x 5% x 10% = 0.25 % = he needs to win the Australian Open 400 times for a CYGS

I like this calculation. though I would say 50%*10%*20% = 1% Chance. It is highly unlikely that his body will hold through the year. Hopefully he can win rolland garros and go 2 up.

 

[Bender]

Greater than zero percent, but not by much. I don't see him winning Wimbledon unless he gets a good draw and Djokovic can't enter.

RG is most likely, and USO is just about feasible--again, if he has a good draw, and especially if he wins RG and does decently in Canada.

I do think Djokovic will get vaccinated by RG.

 

[DIMI_D]

Nadal has confirmed Indian Wells 2022 participation not sure about Acapulco yet

 

[AO13]

It turns out that from being a "dark horse" with serious health problems, Nadal has turned into the main triumphant of the season so far, who also managed to break away from the pursuers in the historic race of TBS winners. Rafael is now 22 titles ahead of his fellow stars, Roger Federer of Switzerland and Novak Djokovic of Serbia, by two titles.

Very good and accurate first post, very good dig of a thread also, like an experienced user, keep it going Tomas.