Nadal’s goal in next few weeks: get to bottom half of 2021 US Open draw

Worked well for Djokovic in 2021 French Open when Nadal fell into top half of the draw (with Djoker), bad result for Nadal.

Similarly Novak would really want to meet (or slay?) Nadal in 2021 US Open semi-final instead of facing City Bus or Zev or (in form) Thiem - which can happen only if Rafa draws to top half. In that case, it’s extremely difficult for Nadal to win 2021 USO by overcome Djokovic in semi and then one elite young NextGen in Final.

So Nadal must get to bottom half of the draw to have any realistic chance winning 21 USO, either by doing well in Washington (500), Canada (1000), and Cincy (1000) overtaking Med as #2 seed, or pray for “luck of the draw”.

We shall see.
 
D

Deleted member 771911

Guest
It would be nice, but I think he has a better chance beating Nole in semis and a next genner in final. Or Anderson.
 

Thriller

Hall of Fame
Baby steps. I saw a picture of Fat Nadal apparently taken a few weeks ago. He no longer has the knees to handle that amount of chunk on hardcourts.
I seriously worry that getting to the USO might be an insurmountable challenge. We'll know more in Washington.
 
It would be nice, but I think he has a better chance beating Nole in semis and a next genner in final. Or Anderson.
Nadal hasn’t won *a set* off Djokovic on hard court for 8 years. What gives you confidence he can do it this time in either semi or final? So his best hope is for someone else (hopefully) taking out Djoker in semi and then he May has a shot again a young gun in final. That’s more realistic.

35 yrs old Anderson? He almost lost to Jack Socks in Newport. Also very lucky when Bublik did what he does best - self destruction after leading a set and a break up. No way Anderson reaching quarter final at 2021 USO.
 

GabeT

G.O.A.T.
Nadal couldn’t beat Novak at the FO and hasn’t won a set in HC in almost a decade. He was so affected by what happened at RG that he skipped Wimbledon despite reaching SFs the prior two tournaments. He probably needs to show his level and confidence have improved.
 
I don’t blame Rafa fans or casual observers having high hope for Nadal at 2021 USO. He is a 4-time champ after all.

Let alone TTW classic “4-3, 2-1 Bud”.
It’s a long time ago though. Even 2 years since 2019 us open is a long time. Rafa was in much better form, physical condition and mental state in 2019 compared to 2021. His serve, stamina and mental state are a real concern now.

The field is also much more competitive on hard courts with the next gen playing much better on it and obviously djoko in great form. The surface has also changed from decoturf to Laykold which is another blow to Rafa too. The ball won’t bounce as high for him and his FH topspin.

Even though it’s a small sample size whenever Rafa loses at RG it also does not bode well for the rest of the season. He’s 35 now and his body is obviously more worn down than djokers is with his style of play so I just think it’s going to be tough for him.

Yes, he’s a 4 time champion at us open so deserves respect and maybe he can do it one last time. I just think on balance the odds are against him unless he gets a very nice draw that opens up with the top guys losing early or way out of form.
 

weakera

Talk Tennis Guru
It’s a long time ago though. Even 2 years since 2019 us open is a long time. Rafa was in much better form, physical condition and mental state in 2019 compared to 2021. His serve, stamina and mental state are a real concern now.

The field is also much more competitive on hard courts with the next gen playing much better on it and obviously djoko in great form. The surface has also changed from decoturf to Laykold which is another blow to Rafa too. The ball won’t bounce as high for him and his FH topspin.

Even though it’s a small sample size whenever Rafa loses at RG it also does not bode well for the rest of the season. He’s 35 now and his body is obviously more worn down than djokers is with his style of play so I just think it’s going to be tough for him.

Yes, he’s a 4 time champion at us open so deserves respect and maybe he can do it one last time. I just think on balance the odds are against him unless he gets a very nice draw that opens up with the top guys losing early or way out of form.

You sound nervous.
 
You sound nervous.
Not really. What’s nadal done really this year so far to make us Djokovic fans nervous? Like I said the pressure is on Rafa now too. Not just on djoko for CYGS and 21. He has to win again to go in front in the GOAT race. He’s for the first time in third place now so the heat is on. Let’s see if he’s up to the challenge?

Even if djoker doesn’t win it then as long as it’s not Fed or Rafa to win then it’s still been a dream year for Djokovic fans. Let’s see what the Spaniard got with the pressure on?

I think most of us can all agree Rafa has a smaller window left to add major titles than Novak. He’s a year old and just has more mileage and injuries on the body. Therefore, every slam is critical for Rafa now especially now djoko has caught him and currently surpassed him overall.
 
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weakera

Talk Tennis Guru
Not really. What’s nadal done really this year so far to make us Djokovic fans nervous? Like I said the pressure is on Rafa now too. Not just on djoko for CYGS and 21. He has to win again to go in front in the GOAT race. He’s for the first time in third place now so the heat is on. Let’s see if he’s up to the challenge?

Even if djoker doesn’t win it then as long as it’s not Fed or Rafa to win then it’s still been a dream year for Djokovic fans. Let’s see what the Spaniard got with the pressure on?

Who are you trying to convince here bud? :sneaky:
 
Not really. What’s nadal done really this year so far to make us Djokovic fans nervous? Like I said the pressure is on Rafa now too. Not just on djoko for CYGS and 21. He has to win again to go in front in the GOAT race. He’s for the first time in third place now so the heat is on. Let’s see if he’s up to the challenge?

Even if djoker doesn’t win it then as long as it’s not Fed or Rafa to win then it’s still been a dream year for Djokovic fans. Let’s see what the Spaniard got with the pressure on?
That is why it is also very important (or desirable) for Novak to see Rafa in semi instead of final from Novak’s point of view. Never a guarantee to win any match let alone a GS semi final so you want to face Rafa one step early in case of an upset by other young gun in semi.

Even for the unlikely event of Djokovic beaten by Nadal in semi, one has to think that is a long dog-fight and Nadal may very well do another 2021 Aussie Open City Bus v2.0 in final - losing steam in set 4 and 5. That way Novak can still claim having a great year in 2021 and Rafa completely empty handed.

That’s the point of my original post - Rafa better try his best to avoid Novak in USO semi, and get into bottom half of the draw to have a decent chance.
 
That is why it is also very important (or desirable) for Novak to see Rafa in semi instead of final from Novak’s point of view. Never a guarantee to win any match let alone a GS semi final so you want to face Rafa one step early in case of an upset by other young gun in semi.

Even for the unlikely event of Djokovic beaten by Nadal in semi, one has to think that is a long dog-fight and Nadal may very well do another 2021 Aussie Open City Bus v2.0 in final - losing steam in set 4 and 5. That way Novak can still claim having a great year in 2021 and Rafa completely empty handed.

That’s the point of my original post - Rafa better try his best to avoid Novak in USO semi, and get into bottom half of the draw to have a decent chance.
Yeah I can understand that logic. I just don’t see Rafa the big favourite over the next gen players. In my opinion avoiding Djokovic isn’t the only think Rafa has to worry about at this stage. There are a few players on hard courts who will fancy their chances against him now.
 

T007

Hall of Fame
Not really. What’s nadal done really this year so far to make us Djokovic fans nervous? Like I said the pressure is on Rafa now too. Not just on djoko for CYGS and 21. He has to win again to go in front in the GOAT race. He’s for the first time in third place now so the heat is on. Let’s see if he’s up to the challenge?

Even if djoker doesn’t win it then as long as it’s not Fed or Rafa to win then it’s still been a dream year for Djokovic fans. Let’s see what the Spaniard got with the pressure on?

I think most of us can all agree Rafa has a smaller window left to add major titles than Novak. He’s a year old and just has more mileage and injuries on the body. Therefore, every slam is critical for Rafa now especially now djoko has caught him and currently surpassed him overall.
So if djoker loses at NYC then his fans even want Fedal lose...I thinks thats not happening. We will defintely see 21 this year at USO,even if its not from djoker
 
So if djoker loses at NYC then his fans even want Fedal lose...I thinks thats not happening. We will defintely see 21 this year at USO,even if its not from djoker
Remember what Toni Nadal told media after Rafa’s lose to Novak after 2021 FO semi-final: he (I think here Toni meant both Rafa & himself actually) will/would feel a little better ONlY IF Novak losing to Stephen S. in the Final…

What does that tell you? I rather admire one’s honesty than some phony words, don’t you agree?

Essence of this original post is for Novak to take out Rafa in USO semi (based on their last 8 yrs hard court H2H record, it is hardly a stretch of imagination, right?). And for Rafa to realistically having a shoot at 5th USO title, he better avoid Novak in semi.
 
D

Deleted member 770948

Guest
OP, you said "Nadal must get to bottom half of the draw to have any realistic chance winning 21 USO".
That makes no sense.
Everybody knows Nadal has a realistic chance already.
He's a North American specialist, and has won the last 2 Canada Masters (and 5 overall), won Cincy, and won 2 of the last 3 US Opens prior to covid (and almost 3 of 3 because he retired in 2018 SF after beating Thiem in the best match of the US Open).
Nadal has won 4 US Opens despite not even playing 2012, 2014 and 2020.
Djokovic has had virtually no impact on Nadal's career in North America, in terms of the slams only 2011 US Open....
 
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Sunny014

Legend
Nadal is enjoying life eating a lot of fatty food and playing golf while his fans are busy dreaming of USOs and world records.

Nadal knows he cannot win anything outside the french now, so he is quite chill.

He is only targeting the french open 2022 and nothing else, after having won 20 slams he is quite content, he is just focused on winnig 1-2 more clay slams if possible, everything else is far beyond reach.
 
So if djoker loses at NYC then his fans even want Fedal lose...I thinks thats not happening. We will defintely see 21 this year at USO,even if its not from djoker
Well I disagree. As in my opinion the favourites after djoker are the next gen players and not Fedal. On current form that’s how I see it.
 

Sunny014

Legend
Whenever Nadal lost the french open his remainder of the year has been bad ....... and this is 2021 .... he isn't doing anything at the US open .... youngsters will beat him in the 4th round or Qfs before he can even think of meeting Novak.
 
Whenever Nadal lost the french open his remainder of the year has been bad ....... and this is 2021 .... he isn't doing anything at the US open .... youngsters will beat him in the 4th round or Qfs before he can even think of meeting Novak.
I agree with you on this. I do think Rafa fans are getting there hopes a bit too much on history not on the present situation,
 

Nadal_King

Hall of Fame
To avoid this site crashing it might be best to have djoker vs a next gen player instead. I think the site could crash forever if we get djokodal and I can only imagine the fan wars at that point haha.
It will be fun I love Us open atmosphere and since I became diehard tennis fan(around 2015) haven't really got a BIG matchup in Us open final apart from Djokovic- Federer 2015 so bring it on
 
It will be fun I love Us open atmosphere and since I became diehard tennis fan(around 2015) haven't really got a BIG matchup in Us open final apart from Djokovic- Federer 2015 so bring it on
Therefore, you’d rather nadal met Djokovic in the final rather than a next gen player? You want the ultimate battle for 21?
 

Nadal_King

Hall of Fame
It's impossible to have 2nd ranking but I guarantee us ooen will put rafa in bottom half as that would mean Djokovic vs Nadal/Medvedev ( both these will make for best matchup in final vs djokovic so will want that)
 
I am fine with that , somehow I feel nadal winning Us open beating Djokovic would be ultimate happiness which avoiding him won't give although I would be happy if Novak loses before final as I don't want CYGS not because nadal to avoid him
Fair enough man. That’s a cool honest answer. It’s good you can be honest you don’t want Novak to do the CYGS as you not a Djokovic fan. As you are a nadal fan that’s understandable you’d want someone else to win than Djokovic if Rafa went out early.

I’m the same but opposite way around. I hope Djokovic completed the ultimate holy grail but if he falters then it will be ok and less damaging if a next gen win instead of fedal.
 

Nadal_King

Hall of Fame
Fair enough man. That’s a cool honest answer. It’s good you can be honest you don’t want Novak to do the CYGS as you not a Djokovic fan. As you are a nadal fan that’s understandable you’d want someone else to win than Djokovic if Rafa went out early.

I’m the same but opposite way around. I hope Djokovic completed the ultimate holy grail but if he falters then it will be ok and less damaging if a next gen win instead of fedal.
Fair deal but if it's Djokovic vs Nadal I think a win for us is just a relief from RG loss but for you guys will be cherry on The Cake( or maybe some other fruit as cake us already overloaded this year :D )
 

Jokervich

Hall of Fame
To avoid this site crashing it might be best to have djoker vs a next gen player instead. I think the site could crash forever if we get djokodal and I can only imagine the fan wars at that point haha.
They were constantly deleting threads after the RG semi between Djokovic and Nadal. I created 3 threads (all pretty normal threads, not designed to troll) and they were almost instantly deleted. Makes me want to set up my own tennis forum and allow all types of discussion, but I wouldn't know where to start with setting up my own internet forum. :p
 
They were constantly deleting threads after the RG semi between Djokovic and Nadal. I created 3 threads (all pretty normal threads, not designed to troll) and they were almost instantly deleted. Makes me want to set up my own tennis forum and allow all types of discussion, but I wouldn't know where to start with setting up my own internet forum. :p
Yeah you are correct. That match thread ended up a snakes pit. I couldn’t continue to comment in it as it got so toxic haha!
 

NAS

Hall of Fame
If he is playing all three events ( Washington, Canada and Cincinnati) before Us open, then he is going nowhere, what is the use of resting during Wimbledon then overplaying after
 

Nadal_King

Hall of Fame
If he is playing all three events ( Washington, Canada and Cincinnati) before Us open, then he is going nowhere, what is the use of resting during Wimbledon then overplaying after
Not 3 I think only 2 so obe of canada/cincy , I would say canada surface wise but match play Cincinnati as it's closer to us open
 
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Nadal_King

Hall of Fame
Yeah I feel he’ll skip cincy and just play Washington then Canada. Then he’ll rest for us open.
Yes it seems best option sunce cincy surface is too different to Us open although if he loses early in either Washington/canada then cincy he should play, ideally he should get 8-10 matches before us open so if sf/f runs he makes at Cananda/Washington then decent practice for the Open
 
Yes it seems best option sunce cincy surface is too different to Us open although if he loses early in either Washington/canada then cincy he should play, ideally he should get 8-10 matches before us open so if sf/f runs he makes at Cananda/Washington then decent practice for the Open
Yeah I agree with that.
 

TennisFan3

Talk Tennis Guru
Anyone know why has Nadal gained so much weight after F.O? One would think he would train and make some changes in his coaching/equipment etc, but it seems like the reverse and he's been chilling.
At this rate, it is more likely that he does not get to the 2nd week of the UsOpen than him winning it. F.O 2022 might be the more realistic target but obviously that will be harder than F.O 2021 with him aging.

IMO the biggest theme for the UsOpen is whether Medvedev can stop Novak from winning CYGS. I don't see anyone other than the Russian taking out the world #1. Happily the UsOpen won't screw over Medvedev like Wimbledon did.

It seems almost destined that Fed and Nadal both finish at 20 slam. It's been the perfect rivalry, contrasting styles and it would be poetic imagery for both of them to be mentioned together ALWAYS in tennis history - locked with same # of slams.
 
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