Nadal 2005 and alcaraz 2022 season similarities

D

dominikk1985

Legend
Not saying alcaraz will definitely win french open but both are spanish, both dominated the clay season and both turned 19 just before the french open.

Wouldn't it be funny if alcaraz did the same as nadal did and win the french just after turning 19?
 
Since when do a 1st-round exit at a Masters, a 500 title and a W at a nontraditional Masters played at high altitude constitute dominance? By contrast Bull won all but 1 event (Valencia) he entered in the '05 CC season proper, with substantially stronger opponents (Fed, Gaudio and Coria) to boot.

And here's the clincher: Rafa won a dominant 65.1% (DC excluded) of his games on clay in '05, vs. a good but not great 58.3% so far for Carlos. In fact all of '05 Nadal's top opponents topped Alcaraz in GW% on dirt that year and cracked or flirted with the all-important 60% mark (again excluding DC and de facto exo WTC): 60.9% for Fred, 59.6% for Gaudio and 58.5% for Coria. All this hype around Alcaraz doesn't sound so warranted now, does it?

Now breaking that 60% ceiling isn't necessarily a must for an imminent FO title, but it does help a lot, with only 13 players - 12 if you round up for '03 Ferrero, but then there's Kodes who never topped 60% even for one CC season - pulling it off sans that historic feat in the year of their triumph. And Rod ('71 and '74), Chang ('95), Dre ('95, '02 and '03), Ferrero ('01) and Fred ('05) won an unrounded 60% or higher at least once in their career, which leaves us with all of 8 in the entire OE.

And get this: even among those 8 only '76 Panatta (57.9%) failed to crack the 60% mark even in his FO run (58.8%)... which is more than excusable because in the QF the Italian heartthrob pulled off arguably the biggest upset of the OE by handing the Ice-Borg his only loss at RG between 1974-81! That's what it takes to win RG, and how important the 60% benchmark is. And why 1993-94 Pistol (60.3% and 60.1% respectively) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Carlitos on clay!
 
Would be supermegaawesome! We've been waiting so long for real talent.

Nadal was just a baby, though. Federer had no competition. Zverev/ Tsitsipas > > > baby Nadal :laughing:
 
NonP said:
Since when do a 1st-round exit at a Masters, a 500 title and a W at a nontraditional Masters played at high altitude constitute dominance? By contrast Bull won all but 1 event (Valencia) he entered in the '05 CC season proper, with substantially stronger opponents (Fed, Gaudio and Coria) to boot.

And here's the clincher: Rafa won a dominant 65.1% (DC excluded) of his games on clay in '05, vs. a good but not great 58.3% so far for Carlos. In fact all of '05 Nadal's top opponents topped Alcaraz in GW% on dirt that year and cracked or flirted with the all-important 60% mark (again excluding DC and de facto exo WTC): 60.9% for Fred, 59.6% for Gaudio and 58.5% for Coria. All this hype around Alcaraz doesn't sound so warranted now, does it?

Now breaking that 60% ceiling isn't necessarily a must for an imminent FO title, but it does help a lot, with only 13 players - 12 if you round up for '03 Ferrero, but then there's Kodes who never topped 60% even for one CC season - pulling it off sans that historic feat in the year of their triumph. And Rod ('71 and '74), Chang ('95), Dre ('95, '02 and '03), Ferrero ('01) and Fred ('05) won an unrounded 60% or higher at least once in their career, which leaves us with all of 8 in the entire OE.

And get this: even among those 8 only '76 Panatta (57.9%) failed to crack the 60% mark even in his FO run (58.8%)... which is more than excusable because in the QF the Italian heartthrob pulled off arguably the biggest upset of the OE by handing the Ice-Borg his only loss at RG between 1974-81! That's what it takes to win RG, and how important the 60% benchmark is. And why 1993-94 Pistol (60.3% and 60.1% respectively) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Carlitos on clay!
Click to expand...

It's absolutely ridiculous how epic Nadal was.

1582369-33644755-2560-1440.jpg


Incredible that all this time has passed and he's still winning slams in epic fashion. What a king!
 
NonP said:
Since when do a 1st-round exit at a Masters, a 500 title and a W at a nontraditional Masters played at high altitude constitute dominance? By contrast Bull won all but 1 event (Valencia) he entered in the '05 CC season proper, with substantially stronger opponents (Fed, Gaudio and Coria) to boot.

And here's the clincher: Rafa won a dominant 65.1% (DC excluded) of his games on clay in '05, vs. a good but not great 58.3% so far for Carlos. In fact all of '05 Nadal's top opponents topped Alcaraz in GW% on dirt that year and cracked or flirted with the all-important 60% mark (again excluding DC and de facto exo WTC): 60.9% for Fred, 59.6% for Gaudio and 58.5% for Coria. All this hype around Alcaraz doesn't sound so warranted now, does it?

Now breaking that 60% ceiling isn't necessarily a must for an imminent FO title, but it does help a lot, with only 13 players - 12 if you round up for '03 Ferrero, but then there's Kodes who never topped 60% even for one CC season - pulling it off sans that historic feat in the year of their triumph. And Rod ('71 and '74), Chang ('95), Dre ('95, '02 and '03), Ferrero ('01) and Fred ('05) won an unrounded 60% or higher at least once in their career, which leaves us with all of 8 in the entire OE.

And get this: even among those 8 only '76 Panatta (57.9%) failed to crack the 60% mark even in his FO run (58.8%)... which is more than excusable because in the QF the Italian heartthrob pulled off arguably the biggest upset of the OE by handing the Ice-Borg his only loss at RG between 1974-81! That's what it takes to win RG, and how important the 60% benchmark is. And why 1993-94 Pistol (60.3% and 60.1% respectively) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Carlitos on clay!
Click to expand...


Thank you for this. The eye test obviously reveals that Nadal was substantially stronger in 2005 than Alcaraz is currently but it's nice to see the numbers that confirm it.

65.1% lol.... UNreal
 
NonP said:
Since when do a 1st-round exit at a Masters, a 500 title and a W at a nontraditional Masters played at high altitude constitute dominance? By contrast Bull won all but 1 event (Valencia) he entered in the '05 CC season proper, with substantially stronger opponents (Fed, Gaudio and Coria) to boot.

And here's the clincher: Rafa won a dominant 65.1% (DC excluded) of his games on clay in '05, vs. a good but not great 58.3% so far for Carlos. In fact all of '05 Nadal's top opponents topped Alcaraz in GW% on dirt that year and cracked or flirted with the all-important 60% mark (again excluding DC and de facto exo WTC): 60.9% for Fred, 59.6% for Gaudio and 58.5% for Coria. All this hype around Alcaraz doesn't sound so warranted now, does it?

Now breaking that 60% ceiling isn't necessarily a must for an imminent FO title, but it does help a lot, with only 13 players - 12 if you round up for '03 Ferrero, but then there's Kodes who never topped 60% even for one CC season - pulling it off sans that historic feat in the year of their triumph. And Rod ('71 and '74), Chang ('95), Dre ('95, '02 and '03), Ferrero ('01) and Fred ('05) won an unrounded 60% or higher at least once in their career, which leaves us with all of 8 in the entire OE.

And get this: even among those 8 only '76 Panatta (57.9%) failed to crack the 60% mark even in his FO run (58.8%)... which is more than excusable because in the QF the Italian heartthrob pulled off arguably the biggest upset of the OE by handing the Ice-Borg his only loss at RG between 1974-81! That's what it takes to win RG, and how important the 60% benchmark is. And why 1993-94 Pistol (60.3% and 60.1% respectively) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Carlitos on clay!
Click to expand...
So Alcaraz is nothing. I suspected it.
 
weakera said:
Thank you for this. The eye test obviously reveals that Nadal was substantially stronger in 2005 than Alcaraz is currently but it's nice to see the numbers that confirm it.

65.1% lol.... UNreal
Click to expand...

Your boy was basically ready to go from the get-go. Granted with just 57.9% in '04 he'd be no shoo-in for RG that year even if healthy, but I still remember Goran (who's actually an astute student of the game, despite his recent pro-Novak bluster) predicting great things for Bull after their meeting at '04 Estoril and maybe Rafa develops even faster with more matches under his belt. And if there's anyone who could hold it together throughout the WTF-fest that was the '04 FO final ("topped" only by the '20 USO F), it's Nadal.

Now he did take a step back in '06 with "only" 62.4%, his lowest in a championship year - it speaks volumes for his kingship that this "lowlight" would be a career highlight for almost everyone else - but he rebounded strongly with 66.0% in '07 when he began to play less like a traditional dirtballer upon realizing that upping his aggression and eating an occasional L here and there made more long-term sense than retrieving each and every ball and getting that 81-win record. And of course he followed it up with his historic '08 season, where he averaged 67.8% including a stupendous 75.7% at RG which is surpassed only by his '17 season with 67.9% and 76.8% respectively (and by Borg in '78 and '80, the only two 70% seasons of the OE).

And as a further illustration of just how unreal that 65.1% is, Borg and Lendl are the only dirtballers in the entire OE who topped 65% even once. You also can throw in '92 Courier with 66.1% if you look at the CC season proper (so only Rome and RG for Jim). That's all of 4 players since '68, which should tell you just how absurd it is to compare Alcaraz and '05 or any championship Nadal, really.

Sudacafan said:
So Alcaraz is nothing. I suspected it.
Click to expand...

LOL, even as a jest that's too harsh on this 19-year-old kid. Just wanted to say '05 Fed, Gaudio or Coria could well be matching or besting Carlitos right now. 58.3% is good but usually ain't enough for the biggest prize unless you really up your game come Slam time a la '15 Stan.
 
NonP said:
Your boy was basically ready to go from the get-go. Granted with just 57.9% in '04 he'd be no shoo-in for RG that year even if healthy, but I still remember Goran (who's actually an astute student of the game, despite his recent pro-Novak bluster) predicting great things for Bull after their meeting at '04 Estoril and maybe Rafa develops even faster with more matches under his belt. And if there's anyone who could hold it together throughout the WTF-fest that was the '04 FO final ("topped" only by the '20 USO F), it's Nadal.

Now he did take a step back in '06 with "only" 62.4%, his lowest in a championship year - it speaks volumes for his kingship that this "lowlight" would be a career highlight for almost everyone else - but he rebounded strongly with 66.0% in '07 when he began to play less like a traditional dirtballer upon realizing that upping his aggression and eating an occasional L here and there made more long-term sense than retrieving each and every ball and getting that 81-win record. And of course he followed it up with his historic '08 season, where he averaged 67.8% including a stupendous 75.7% at RG which is surpassed only by his '17 season with 67.9% and 76.8% respectively (and by Borg in '78 and '80, the only two 70% seasons of the OE).

And as a further illustration of just how unreal that 65.1% is, Borg and Lendl are the only dirtballers in the entire OE who topped 65% even once. You also can throw in '92 Courier with 66.1% if you look at the CC season proper (so only Rome and RG for Jim). That's all of 4 players since '68, which should tell you just how absurd it is to compare Alcaraz and '05 or any championship Nadal, really.



LOL, even as a jest that's too harsh on this 19-year-old kid. Just wanted to say '05 Fed, Gaudio or Coria could well be matching or besting Carlitos right now. 58.3% is good but usually ain't enough for the biggest prize unless you really up your game come Slam time a la '15 Stan.
Click to expand...

A fascinating read sir 8-B(y)
 
MichaelNadal said:
It's absolutely ridiculous how epic Nadal was.

1582369-33644755-2560-1440.jpg


Incredible that all this time has passed and he's still winning slams in epic fashion. What a king!
Click to expand...
It is why he IS GOAT. Nobody has ever hit the heights of Nadal 2008-2010 as when he was playing in that period and fit (had a spell out in 2009) he was unbeatable on anything
 
dominikk1985 said:
Not saying alcaraz will definitely win french open but both are spanish, both dominated the clay season and both turned 19 just before the french open.

Wouldn't it be funny if alcaraz did the same as nadal did and win the french just after turning 19?
Click to expand...
Rafa would still be Younger...
 
NonP said:
Your boy was basically ready to go from the get-go. Granted with just 57.9% in '04 he'd be no shoo-in for RG that year even if healthy, but I still remember Goran (who's actually an astute student of the game, despite his recent pro-Novak bluster) predicting great things for Bull after their meeting at '04 Estoril and maybe Rafa develops even faster with more matches under his belt. And if there's anyone who could hold it together throughout the WTF-fest that was the '04 FO final ("topped" only by the '20 USO F), it's Nadal.

Now he did take a step back in '06 with "only" 62.4%, his lowest in a championship year - it speaks volumes for his kingship that this "lowlight" would be a career highlight for almost everyone else - but he rebounded strongly with 66.0% in '07 when he began to play less like a traditional dirtballer upon realizing that upping his aggression and eating an occasional L here and there made more long-term sense than retrieving each and every ball and getting that 81-win record. And of course he followed it up with his historic '08 season, where he averaged 67.8% including a stupendous 75.7% at RG which is surpassed only by his '17 season with 67.9% and 76.8% respectively (and by Borg in '78 and '80, the only two 70% seasons of the OE).

And as a further illustration of just how unreal that 65.1% is, Borg and Lendl are the only dirtballers in the entire OE who topped 65% even once. You also can throw in '92 Courier with 66.1% if you look at the CC season proper (so only Rome and RG for Jim). That's all of 4 players since '68, which should tell you just how absurd it is to compare Alcaraz and '05 or any championship Nadal, really.



LOL, even as a jest that's too harsh on this 19-year-old kid. Just wanted to say '05 Fed, Gaudio or Coria could well be matching or besting Carlitos right now. 58.3% is good but usually ain't enough for the biggest prize unless you really up your game come Slam time a la '15 Stan.
Click to expand...

It gets even more outrageous if you peer deeper.

On clay,

2005 Nadal
Points Dominance 1.41
Games Dominance 2.87
Break Points Ratio 1.52
Total Points Won 56.7%
Sets Won 86.3%

2022 Alcaraz
Points Dominance 1.23
Games Dominance 1.86
Break Points Ratio 1.30
Total Points Won 53.6%
Sets Won 75.6%

Alcaraz's numbers are lesser even than Nadal's two worst clay seasons statistically, 2021 and 2015.

Obviously what Alcaraz is doing at 19 is impressive nonetheless, but he is nowhere near planet Rafa. He is playing worse than Nadal's worst-ever versions of himself per the numbers.
 
Though we can add losing in 5 to backwards cap wearing top tenners at the Australian Open to the list of similarities between the two seasons. :unsure:
 
Almost losing to De Minaur on clay doesn't inspire confidence. I still believe his game is much better suited to HC's and I think he's more likely to have a shot at winning the USO rather than the French Open this year. Then again, there are a lot of withdrawals and injuries among the top guys recently and it's not a guarantee either of Djokodal will be in great form this FO, so if the clay competition is weak enough then this year might be more of a real possibility.
 
It's not impossible for Alcaraz to have a year as good as Rafa in 2005, but perhaps he wins the Us Open instead of the French Open
 
ADuck said:
Almost losing to De Minaur on clay doesn't inspire confidence. I still believe his game is much better suited to HC's and I think he's more likely to have a shot at winning the USO rather than the French Open this year. Then again, there are a lot of withdrawals and injuries among the top guys recently and it's not a guarantee either of Djokodal will be in great form this FO, so if the clay competition is weak enough then this year might be more of a real possibility.
Click to expand...
Honestly, if Alcaraz is in good form and receives a draw at the USO that is similar to 2021 Med's, then Carlos could win the USO. I'd like that to happen in all honesty.

I think the USO should be a safer bet because it's close to the end of the year and Djokodal could very well be gassed by then. Although this year might be differently since Nadal hasn't played a lot and neither has Djokovic.
 
NonP said:
Your boy was basically ready to go from the get-go. Granted with just 57.9% in '04 he'd be no shoo-in for RG that year even if healthy, but I still remember Goran (who's actually an astute student of the game, despite his recent pro-Novak bluster) predicting great things for Bull after their meeting at '04 Estoril and maybe Rafa develops even faster with more matches under his belt. And if there's anyone who could hold it together throughout the WTF-fest that was the '04 FO final ("topped" only by the '20 USO F), it's Nadal.

Now he did take a step back in '06 with "only" 62.4%, his lowest in a championship year - it speaks volumes for his kingship that this "lowlight" would be a career highlight for almost everyone else - but he rebounded strongly with 66.0% in '07 when he began to play less like a traditional dirtballer upon realizing that upping his aggression and eating an occasional L here and there made more long-term sense than retrieving each and every ball and getting that 81-win record. And of course he followed it up with his historic '08 season, where he averaged 67.8% including a stupendous 75.7% at RG which is surpassed only by his '17 season with 67.9% and 76.8% respectively (and by Borg in '78 and '80, the only two 70% seasons of the OE).

And as a further illustration of just how unreal that 65.1% is, Borg and Lendl are the only dirtballers in the entire OE who topped 65% even once. You also can throw in '92 Courier with 66.1% if you look at the CC season proper (so only Rome and RG for Jim). That's all of 4 players since '68, which should tell you just how absurd it is to compare Alcaraz and '05 or any championship Nadal, really.



LOL, even as a jest that's too harsh on this 19-year-old kid. Just wanted to say '05 Fed, Gaudio or Coria could well be matching or besting Carlitos right now. 58.3% is good but usually ain't enough for the biggest prize unless you really up your game come Slam time a la '15 Stan.
Click to expand...

Sit down and take notes kids, class is in session.
 
NonP said:
Since when do a 1st-round exit at a Masters, a 500 title and a W at a nontraditional Masters played at high altitude constitute dominance? By contrast Bull won all but 1 event (Valencia) he entered in the '05 CC season proper, with substantially stronger opponents (Fed, Gaudio and Coria) to boot.

And here's the clincher: Rafa won a dominant 65.1% (DC excluded) of his games on clay in '05, vs. a good but not great 58.3% so far for Carlos. In fact all of '05 Nadal's top opponents topped Alcaraz in GW% on dirt that year and cracked or flirted with the all-important 60% mark (again excluding DC and de facto exo WTC): 60.9% for Fred, 59.6% for Gaudio and 58.5% for Coria. All this hype around Alcaraz doesn't sound so warranted now, does it?

Now breaking that 60% ceiling isn't necessarily a must for an imminent FO title, but it does help a lot, with only 13 players - 12 if you round up for '03 Ferrero, but then there's Kodes who never topped 60% even for one CC season - pulling it off sans that historic feat in the year of their triumph. And Rod ('71 and '74), Chang ('95), Dre ('95, '02 and '03), Ferrero ('01) and Fred ('05) won an unrounded 60% or higher at least once in their career, which leaves us with all of 8 in the entire OE.

And get this: even among those 8 only '76 Panatta (57.9%) failed to crack the 60% mark even in his FO run (58.8%)... which is more than excusable because in the QF the Italian heartthrob pulled off arguably the biggest upset of the OE by handing the Ice-Borg his only loss at RG between 1974-81! That's what it takes to win RG, and how important the 60% benchmark is. And why 1993-94 Pistol (60.3% and 60.1% respectively) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Carlitos on clay!
Click to expand...
You're right but let the kids have some fun
 
mike danny said:
Honestly, if Alcaraz is in good form and receives a draw at the USO that is similar to 2021 Med's, then Carlos could win the USO. I'd like that to happen in all honesty.

I think the USO should be a safer bet because it's close to the end of the year and Djokodal could very well be gassed by then. Although this year might be differently since Nadal hasn't played a lot and neither has Djokovic.
Click to expand...
Still think Medvedev wins it again.
 
NonP said:
Your boy was basically ready to go from the get-go. Granted with just 57.9% in '04 he'd be no shoo-in for RG that year even if healthy, but I still remember Goran (who's actually an astute student of the game, despite his recent pro-Novak bluster) predicting great things for Bull after their meeting at '04 Estoril and maybe Rafa develops even faster with more matches under his belt. And if there's anyone who could hold it together throughout the WTF-fest that was the '04 FO final ("topped" only by the '20 USO F), it's Nadal.

Now he did take a step back in '06 with "only" 62.4%, his lowest in a championship year - it speaks volumes for his kingship that this "lowlight" would be a career highlight for almost everyone else - but he rebounded strongly with 66.0% in '07 when he began to play less like a traditional dirtballer upon realizing that upping his aggression and eating an occasional L here and there made more long-term sense than retrieving each and every ball and getting that 81-win record. And of course he followed it up with his historic '08 season, where he averaged 67.8% including a stupendous 75.7% at RG which is surpassed only by his '17 season with 67.9% and 76.8% respectively (and by Borg in '78 and '80, the only two 70% seasons of the OE).

And as a further illustration of just how unreal that 65.1% is, Borg and Lendl are the only dirtballers in the entire OE who topped 65% even once. You also can throw in '92 Courier with 66.1% if you look at the CC season proper (so only Rome and RG for Jim). That's all of 4 players since '68, which should tell you just how absurd it is to compare Alcaraz and '05 or any championship Nadal, really.



LOL, even as a jest that's too harsh on this 19-year-old kid. Just wanted to say '05 Fed, Gaudio or Coria could well be matching or besting Carlitos right now. 58.3% is good but usually ain't enough for the biggest prize unless you really up your game come Slam time a la '15 Stan.
Click to expand...
Great analysis
 
Nadal's run was definitely more impressive, at least because MC and Rome finals were BO5. Also, Alcaraz skipping Rome doesn't look good.
 
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