Nadal after turning 20 vs Alcaraz after turning 20

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Carlos is already as jacked, fast and fit as he will ever be.

Realistically he has no margin to go up the same way Novak went from 2007 to 2011 or Nadal from 2005 to 2008 or Fed from 2001 to 2004.

For Nadal, most of his improvements were on serve and consistency, he was already very capable on all surfaces by 2005-2006, just not consistent and also very poor in BO5 on HCs. Carlos definitely looks more of the same material, will get better on serve and perhaps half a notch from the baseline like say 2008-2010 Murray compared to 2012-2013 Murray and also potentially fitter and more consistent in BO5, but I don't see where the "new level" lies to honestly.
Carlos is still not fit enough. He is not as jacked as he will ever be but I don't think it would be big deal.

Apart from serve, his main change would be shot tolerance. He would need to play level headed when he is feeling too enthusiastic. Patience and stamina would both improve in next 1/2 years.
 

StrongRule

Talk Tennis Guru
Alcaraz didnt win the FO because of Djokovic. We have to judge based of what we got.
Losing to peak Federer at Wimbledon, in a tight 4 set match (except for the first set) is not the same thing as totally collapsing after 2 sets against a 36 years old Djokovic at a slam at which the latter never looked unbeatable, leave alone dominant.

Saying that these two losses are somehow comparable and produce exactly the same excuse is just BS.
 
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DSH

Talk Tennis Guru
Dear lord this is why you guys get mocked on here for just looking at results and not digging even beyond the surface. Joker was mediocre to straight up bad in the F this year vs 06 Fed who was at the peak of his game. Joker may have 7 Wimbys but he sure as hell didn’t play like it. The dude had a negative ace to DF ratio and a negative winner to UFE ratio on a winner friendly surface like grass. That’s simply unacceptably bad.
Hurkacz should have dispatched the Serbian wolf in the fourth round but like the players of his generation, he failed in the decisive moments.
:(
 

DSH

Talk Tennis Guru
no the comparison was between a 24 year old Federer in wimbledon vs a 36 year old Djokovic in Wimbledon. As far as their overall records go, they are definitely in the same ballpark but if you compare specifically at these ages, I don't see any comparison.
Federer was almost 25 years old when he won that edition of Wimbledon; it's just a detail, by the way.
:D
 

Gary Duane

Talk Tennis Guru
Carlos at this time is not winning enough games on serve. Check out his stats on hard courts. Check the number of games he is winning by percentage returning and the number of games by percentage he is winning serving. He is not even in the top three. Young players peak very early in winning return games. So what is unlikely he is going to improve much more. This is going to force him to win an incredible number of games returning because he is going to be scrambling to win service games.

That's why those of us who have been watching tennis for a very long time realize that his service game needs to improve a lot. And I'm not saying he can't do that. But I am saying that until that happens he is not going to be dominating on hard courts. So rather than making predictions, just look at that one stat next year. If he climbs up close to 90% in service games he can easily be as good as many people are hoping - if he also gets lucky by not having injuries. But if that figure stays more like 85% then all of you need to reassess his future. Stay tuned.
 

ChaelAZ

G.O.A.T.
Alcz is on a par to track with Nadal and Federer, so it is a bright start. Potential is certainly there and him, Sinner, and a few others are the face of the ATP and what tennis needs to move from that Fedal Era with some quality sportsman and exciting play. Compare all you want, but in the end you can only really talk about what he has accomplished with any measure of things.

But again I see 'overrated' in a thread about 20 year olds running the tourneys right now, and doing so pretty dang well. Well deserved accomplishments and rated accordingly.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
I don’t really like comparisons but I’m not feeling a big 3 career for this guy. As much as he won Wimbledon, he’s been super unimpressive these days. Sinner moved him around like a hopeless rat 2 weeks ago, and Sinner is improving a lot. Alcaraz peaked early and is unlikely to improve much more. I think he gets around 8 slams or so
"Hopeless rat"? You don't like him much, I see. You really think he peaked merely aged 20? Very few players do that, the only exception I know of is Lleyton Hewitt.
 

FeroBango

Legend
"Hopeless rat"? You don't like him much, I see. You really think he peaked merely aged 20? Very few players do that, the only exception I know of is Lleyton Hewitt.
Raz attracts some visceral hatred here. "Hopeless rat, teeth hehe" ...

Sinner hasn't peaked yet because he's only 22 apparently, to answer your query of whether Carlos has peaked or not at 20. Make of that what you will.

It's in reality, more a case of obsessively tracking down Sinner's matches alone and getting to see Raz exclusively in matches against Sinner (4-4 professionally) and hoping that the fantasy of a rare Fed-Hewitt situation repeats itself again even if said players are absolutely nothing like those two.
 

JustMy2Cents

Hall of Fame
RogersCup-20060810-0497.jpg


Nadal had average 2006-07 season just post his 20th birthday. Average from peak big 3 level. At one point he went 9 months without winning a single title.
Let's see how Nadal fared post Rome 2005.

Roland Garros - W beating Federer
Queens club QF - L to Hewitt world number 13
Wimbledon F - L to Federer ( had one of the worst draw to final , 2 QF and 1 WC, tired Agassi, then world number 22, and world number 18 to reach the final.
Rogers cup 3R - L to Berdych world number 14
Cincy QF - L to Ferrero World number 31
US open QF - L to Youzhney World number 54
Stockholm 2R - L to Johansson World number freaking 690
Madrid QF - L to Berdych World number 11
TMC SF - L to Federer (only second time he lost to someone in top 10, both times to Federer)

Comes new year
Chennai SF - L to Mallisse world number 37
Sydney 1R - L to Guccione world number 107 retired
Australian open QF - L to Gonzalez world number 9 (third time he lost to someone in top 10)
Dubai - QF L to Youzhney world number 18

It was only at IW he got back to his form. This is a lot of muggery but Nadal is not ridiculed. It wasn't the strength of his era or Federer who made him lose this much. It was his own inexperience.


alcaraz-7cb59e0f840f0361cfe6884395970ab4.jpg

Now lets see Alcaraz after turning 20
Madrid 2023 - W
Rome 2023 - L to Marsozan world number 135
RG 2023 - L to Djokovic (REAL world number 1)
Queens club - W
Wimbledon - W beat 3 top 10 including world number 1 Djokovic , humiliated Medvedev
Rogers cup QF - L to Paul world number 14
Cincy F - L to Djokovic world number 2
US Open SF - L to Medvedev world number 3
China Open SF - L to Sinner world number 7
Shanghai 4R - L to Dimitrov world number 19.

We can see Alcaraz won a bunch of titles post turning 20. He even lost to quality players except Marsozan.

At the same age Nadal was mugging up after clay season. But there are threads about Alcaraz not being at big 3 level already. Why is Nadal discounted? Because he beat Federer a bunch of times in clay? Even outside of Federer Nadal lost to every single player mostly out of top 10.

Alcaraz has a chance to have a better 20th year than Nadal and Djokovic. We know Federer wasn't even close to these three at 20 years age.

There is no doubting this guy. He won Wimbledon already.
Rafa was diagnosed with his Mueller Weiss syndrome after the repeated injuries he was facing since his 1st GS and super successful 2005.

doctors said it meant the end of his pro career [all details in his biography and also in early interviews]

he has been 'managing' his condition ever since 2005... to date 2005 with 11 tourney wins remains his most successful season

may be you should factor that in or is it too 'inconvenient'??

leave alone the context of peak Fed as competition for Rafa and the arguments there of addressed so well by @The Blond Blur
RAFA was better sorry not sorry. Had it not been for Peakerer RAFA would have won 3 straight Wimbys. The 06 finalists would both beat the finalists from this year. And for as much crap as RAFA deservedly gets for his indoor season woes, he’s still been more successful than Tiny Carl. What it tells us?
exactly.

the lack of context is so glaring in the posts of OP:rolleyes:
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
RAFA was better sorry not sorry. Had it not been for Peakerer RAFA would have won 3 straight Wimbys. The 06 finalists would both beat the finalists from this year. And for as much crap as RAFA deservedly gets for his indoor season woes, he’s still been more successful than Tiny Carl. What it tells us?
Alcaraz turned 20 this season. This would be the equivalent of Nadal's 2006 season.

In 2006 Nadal won one title off of clay, and performed just as poorly on indoor hard.

Nadal lost to a 690th ranked WC (Johansson) in Stockholm and lost in the QF in Madrid. He then went 2-1 in a group with Blake, Robredo, and Davydenko, before losing to Fed in the SF of the YEC

2005 Madrid remains, to this day, Nadal's only title on indoor hard. From the QF on, he beat Stepanek, Ginepri, and Ljubicic to do it. Not exactly impressive
 
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Third Serve

Talk Tennis Guru
2006 Nadal vs. 2023 Alcaraz:

AO: Neither played
RG: Nadal clearly
W: Nadal by a small but noticeable margin
US Open: Alcaraz slightly

IW: Alcaraz
Miami: Alcaraz clearly
MC: Nadal (Alcaraz didn't play)
Rome: Nadal clearly
Hamburg / Madrid: Alcaraz (Nadal didn't play Hamburg due to fatigue from the five-set Rome final)
Canada: Maybe Nadal slightly but it's about even
Cincinnati: Alcaraz
Madrid Indoors / Shanghai (not exactly comparable tournaments, I realize, but they occupy the same time slot): Even
Paris: I guess technically Alcaraz since Nadal didn't play, but he lost in the opening round to Roman Safiullin so it's not like Nadal would do much worse if he played?)

YEC: Nadal

Ned takes the Slams and the YEC by virtue of his superiority on natural surfaces and for playing a good match in the YEC 2006 semifinal but Alcaraz was stronger in the Masters due to his hard court prowess. His underperformance at the US Open and in the fall season is very notable, though. He's a good player for age 20 but Nadal is a cut above.
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
W: Nadal by a small but noticeable margin
Nadal had to come back from two sets down sets to beat a 237th ranked qualifier in the second round, 67 36 76 75 64

Of course once he entered the final stages of Wimbledon, the surface had slowed down enough (as grass always does with wear) that he could more effectively employ his clay court game
 

The Blond Blur

G.O.A.T.
Alcaraz turned 20 this season. This would be the equivalent of Nadal's 2006 season.

In 2006 Nadal won one title off of clay, and performed just as poorly on indoor hard.

Nadal lost to a 690th ranked WC (Johansson) in Stockholm and lost in the QF in Madrid. He then went 2-1 in a group with Blake, Robredo, and Davydenko, before losing to Fed in the SF of the YEC

2005 Madrid remains, to this day, Nadal's only title on indoor hard. From the QF on, he beat Stepanek, Ginepri, and Ljubicic to do it. Not exactly impressive
I’m well aware it’d be RAFA’s 06 season. Even then he played at a higher level and had a better resume. By this point they had an equal number of schlems (though RAFA faced stiffer competition in his 2 title runs). But RAFA had made more GS Fs, mad more “big titles” 6 MS1000s to 4 (and RAFA got screwed by a horrendous line call in Miami that would have made it 7 to 4), titles overall (17 vs 12) etc.

The only thing keeping him from winning 3 straight Wimby titles from 06-08 was a peak/prime Fed who was light years better than the Joker who Tiny Carl got to play in this year’s F.

As far as their indoor resume is concerned, at least RAFA had won an indoor title by this point in their careers. And it was an MS1000 title back when they still played BO5 to boot. Lastly, RAFA put up a better fight in his YEC SF loss to God mode Fed than Carl did vs Joker.
 

Third Serve

Talk Tennis Guru
Nadal had to come back from two sets down sets to beat a 237th ranked qualifier in the second round, 67 36 76 75 64

Of course once he entered the final stages of Wimbledon, the surface had slowed down enough (as grass always does with wear) that he could more effectively employ his clay court game
On principle, I don't really factor the early rounds into consideration if significant improvement is made in the final rounds. I don't really care about, say, Federer struggling with Benneteau in 2012 or Djokovic with Anderson in 2015 when they both had solid semifinal and final performances. And of course I pay no attention to the fourth round at Djokovic's AO 2016 run when that masterclass of a semifinal happened. This is of course certainly true with Nadal who has struggled in the early rounds of Wimbledon for ages only to dramatically raise his level on second-week Wimbledon grass. In 2010, he also went down 2-0 against Petzschner but went on to take home the trophy after a straight-set final.

Here, Nadal played a great match in the SF and put in a good showing in the final, which is more than enough to make me forgive his early round woes.

Now, if he was still showing deep signs of struggle in the biggest matches, that would be more worrying. Or, you know, if he actually lost those early round matches.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
One thing to give to fedal was they both showed up in 2006 ( Nadal was 20 just like Raz now).

They played 6 matches. 1 time on grass 2 on hc and 3 on clay.

Nadal was good enough to maintain surface dominance and beat fed in Dubai hc to have 4-2 H2H for 2006 season. This was federer's peak season like Nole 2015. Still Nadal is 4-2.


Nole and Carlos met 4 times. 1 time on grass, once on clay and twice on HC. Nole has 3-1 advantage. Nole is dominating but not at his peak 2015 level.

So even though Rafa played peak Federer he is 4-2 up while Raz playing just below peak Nole is 1-3 down.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
So Carlos might be worse than Nadal at least based on last 2 years.

Although his best years are ahead of him. And so was Rafa's best years in 2006. And Carlos may be more durable than Nadal.
 

Azure

G.O.A.T.
So Carlos might be worse than Nadal at least based on last 2 years.

Although his best years are ahead of him. And so was Rafa's best years in 2006. And Carlos may be more durable than Nadal.
I think its beyond just numbers. Nadal at 20 had better shot tolerance than Alcaraz but Alcaraz has a very good net game which for some reason he hasn’t been exploiting of late. Nadal is the superior baseliner.
 

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
Carlos at this time is not winning enough games on serve. Check out his stats on hard courts. Check the number of games he is winning by percentage returning and the number of games by percentage he is winning serving. He is not even in the top three. Young players peak very early in winning return games. So what is unlikely he is going to improve much more. This is going to force him to win an incredible number of games returning because he is going to be scrambling to win service games.

That's why those of us who have been watching tennis for a very long time realize that his service game needs to improve a lot. And I'm not saying he can't do that. But I am saying that until that happens he is not going to be dominating on hard courts. So rather than making predictions, just look at that one stat next year. If he climbs up close to 90% in service games he can easily be as good as many people are hoping - if he also gets lucky by not having injuries. But if that figure stays more like 85% then all of you need to reassess his future. Stay tuned.
I actually think Alcaraz could make a big leap on return. His biggest weakness by far is inconsistency on the second serve return. He misses something like 19% of them (Med, the paragon of consistency, misses more like 10-11% I forget the exact numbers.) On the other hand, he wins a ton of points on second serve return when he lands the ball in play. The problem is he’s just a bit too loose and aggressive on that second ball. I think as he ages and grows in experience and maturity, he’ll temper that aggression. Obviously then his points-won-in-play will likely drop, but if he can minimize that drop as he raises his returns in play, it’ll be a net increase, and potentially a big one. And I don’t think there are any obvious technical limitations that would stop him from achieving this – unlike, say, Federer who just couldn’t find a way to attack second serves consistently with his conservative one hander. Carlos is already one of the best returners of first serve – if he were lacking there, I’d be pessimistic about future return success – but if he can just nudge up a little bit his second serve return performance, he could have a very high ceiling, even on hard courts. We’ll see if he can do so, though, and how long it takes if he does.

As for the serve, my best hope is a Nadal-like arc of slow, steady improvement. Obviously Rafa had lots of peaks and valleys along the way, but the long-term trend across his 20-year career was upward. I don’t expect Alcaraz to make any big leaps, but I do think he has scope to improve. There seems to me to be a big gap between his “ace” serve and his working serve. If he’s not going for the kill, he’s going a bit too conservative, right into his opponent’s swing zone. I think that’ll improve over the years. He has the pace, he has the placement when he does go for the corners – and I think over time his 70% serve will get better. And why wouldn’t it? The serve is the one shot a player totally controls and if you don’t get better at hitting your spots over a 20-year career, you’re doing something wrong. No idea where he ends up topping out – I can’t really imagine him winning 90% of serve games across a season with any regularity – but I think he hasn’t hit his ceiling.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
And now we have it. Just like Nadal, Alcaraz beats the competition at IW. Now in the final and with a huge momentum to win the trophy.

Just like Nadal, Alcaraz took many months to get back on track. Just like Nadal, Alcaraz didn't make a final for 6/7 months. But now he is in the final again.
 

dking68

Legend
And now we have it. Just like Nadal, Alcaraz beats the competition at IW. Now in the final and with a huge momentum to win the trophy.

Just like Nadal, Alcaraz took many months to get back on track. Just like Nadal, Alcaraz didn't make a final for 6/7 months. But now he is in the final again.
Sinner will win Miami. No target on his back. But number 2 won’t be achieved for now
 

DSH

Talk Tennis Guru
Losing to peak Federer at Wimbledon, in a tight 4 set match (except for the first set) is not the same thing as totally collapsing after 2 sets against a 36 years old Djokovic at a slam at which the latter never looked unbeatable, leave alone dominant.

Saying that these two losses are somehow comparable and produce exactly the same excuse is just BS.
Alcaraz gave away a GS title due to his nervousness and the expectations that overwhelmed him at the most inopportune moment against a player as experienced as Djokovic.
:confused:
 

DSH

Talk Tennis Guru
And now we have it. Just like Nadal, Alcaraz beats the competition at IW. Now in the final and with a huge momentum to win the trophy.

Just like Nadal, Alcaraz took many months to get back on track. Just like Nadal, Alcaraz didn't make a final for 6/7 months. But now he is in the final again.
Alcaraz has the potential to be the biggest winner in the history of the IW and Madrid tournaments.
:cool:
 

CHillTennis

Hall of Fame
Back in 2006, Nadal was losing to Berdych 1.0.

Now in 2024, Alcaraz is losing to Berdych 2.0.

What does this tell us?:unsure:
 

CHillTennis

Hall of Fame
RogersCup-20060810-0497.jpg


Nadal had average 2006-07 season just post his 20th birthday. Average from peak big 3 level. At one point he went 9 months without winning a single title.
Let's see how Nadal fared post Rome 2005.

Roland Garros - W beating Federer
Queens club QF - L to Hewitt world number 13
Wimbledon F - L to Federer ( had one of the worst draw to final , 2 QF and 1 WC, tired Agassi, then world number 22, and world number 18 to reach the final.
Rogers cup 3R - L to Berdych world number 14
Cincy QF - L to Ferrero World number 31
US open QF - L to Youzhney World number 54
Stockholm 2R - L to Johansson World number freaking 690
Madrid QF - L to Berdych World number 11
TMC SF - L to Federer (only second time he lost to someone in top 10, both times to Federer)

Comes new year
Chennai SF - L to Mallisse world number 37
Sydney 1R - L to Guccione world number 107 retired
Australian open QF - L to Gonzalez world number 9 (third time he lost to someone in top 10)
Dubai - QF L to Youzhney world number 18

It was only at IW he got back to his form. This is a lot of muggery but Nadal is not ridiculed. It wasn't the strength of his era or Federer who made him lose this much. It was his own inexperience.


alcaraz-7cb59e0f840f0361cfe6884395970ab4.jpg

Now lets see Alcaraz after turning 20
Madrid 2023 - W
Rome 2023 - L to Marsozan world number 135
RG 2023 - L to Djokovic (REAL world number 1)
Queens club - W
Wimbledon - W beat 3 top 10 including world number 1 Djokovic , humiliated Medvedev
Rogers cup QF - L to Paul world number 14
Cincy F - L to Djokovic world number 2
US Open SF - L to Medvedev world number 3
China Open SF - L to Sinner world number 7
Shanghai 4R - L to Dimitrov world number 19.

We can see Alcaraz won a bunch of titles post turning 20. He even lost to quality players except Marsozan.

At the same age Nadal was mugging up after clay season. But there are threads about Alcaraz not being at big 3 level already. Why is Nadal discounted? Because he beat Federer a bunch of times in clay? Even outside of Federer Nadal lost to every single player mostly out of top 10.

Alcaraz has a chance to have a better 20th year than Nadal and Djokovic. We know Federer wasn't even close to these three at 20 years age.

There is no doubting this guy. He won Wimbledon already.
How many times did Nadal lose to a player over the age of 30 in 2006 or 2007?

Also, Joachim Johansson had beaten Andy Roddick on his way to reaching the semi-finals of the US Open in 2004.

Bringing up his ranking of 690 is pointless, because the guy was basically retired in 2007.

He was a hell of a great player and was in the top 10 in the world back in '05.
 
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