Nadal at USO vs AO

Underdog

Underdog

Professional
2004: AO 3R v USO 2R

2005: AO 4R v USO 3R

2006: AO DNP v USO QF

2007: AO QF v USO 4R

2008: AO SF v USO SF

2009: AO W v USO SF

2010: AO QF (injury) v USO W

2011: AO QF (injury) v USO F (v Djokovic)

2012: AO F (v Djokovic) v USO DNP (injury)

2013 AO DNP (injury) v USO W

2014: AO F (injury) v USO DNP (injury)

2015: AO QF v USO 3R

2016: AO 1R v USO 4R

2017: AO F (v Federer) v USO W

2018: AO QF (injured) v USO SF (injured)

2019: AO F (v Djokovic) v USO 19 W

2020: AO QF v USO DNP (choice)

2021: AO QF v USO DNP (injury)

2022: AO W v USO 4R (injury)

It’s fairly generally accepted Nadal is greater at the USO than the AO, but could he have played better tennis at the AO? What do you take of this result comparison?
 
USO 10 a tiny bit better than AO 09
USO 13 a tiny bit better than AO 12
USO 17 a tiny bit better than AO 17
USO 11 a tiny bit bit better than AO 14 (without injury AO takes this tbh)
USO 19 a tiny bit better than AO 19

Missed USO in years like 12/20/21/14 were he could have contended in some. So USO it is for me.
 
RS said:
USO 10 a tiny bit better than AO 09
USO 13 a tiny bit better than AO 12
USO 17 a tiny bit better than AO 17
USO 19 a tiny bit better than AO 19
USO 11 moderately better than any other AO left

Missed USO in years like 12/20/21/14 were he could have contended in some. So USO it is for me.
Click to expand...
How?
 
Nadal's AO draws were tougher than USO draws in general. Is it because of his lack of preparation or something else I don't know. But in general he was playing high ranked players in AO.

Since start of the century, AO had some of the best matches in tennis. While USOpen has been turbulent. Most players get injured here not just Nadal.

From the big 3, fed was injured in 2013, 2017, 2019. He never skipped it but he was never fit. I would assume he wasn't fit in 2012 either.
Nole was injured in 2016 2017 2019. He was fully fit in all these years at AO, except 2017.

Now, Nadal won USO in 2017 2019 which are only two events where both fed and Nole were out of the picture. Without these two, Nadal would have more finals at AO, and just 1 more USOpen semis than AO.

Nadal is good enough to win vs Anderson and Medvedev in either AO or USO. But Anderson and Medvedev aren't good enough at AO as USO. So Nadal played better players at AO than at USO and the rest is just luck. Would he win AO 2014 if not injured ? I don't know. Would he win AO12 , maybe.

A big factor here is Federer. He made 1 USOpen final between 2009 and 2023. That's really poor. Federer was poor at USOpen. In the same time frame he made 4 finals at AO winning 3.
 
better at AO, just had easier freebies at USO in 17/19. His 09/12 forms at the AO are better than anything bar 2010 USO.
 
The gap in competition is pretty remarkable:

Matches played against top 5:
9 at AO (9.7% of career matches at the event)
7 at USO (8.9%)

Matches played against top 10:
20 at AO (21.5%)
12 at USO (15.2%)

Matches played against top 20:
34 at AO (36.6%)
16 at USO (20.3%)

In other words, he's played more top ten players at the Aussie than he has top twenty players at the USO – both in raw terms and proportionally. Of course he's also fared better against those top opponents at the US Open, so there is some justification for the argument that he's genuinely better there. But the significantly easier draws make it a bit tough to compare.
 
Last edited:
nachiket nolefam said:
Nadal's AO draws were tougher than USO draws in general. Is it because of his lack of preparation or something else I don't know. But in general he was playing high ranked players in AO.

Since start of the century, AO had some of the best matches in tennis. While USOpen has been turbulent. Most players get injured here not just Nadal.

From the big 3, fed was injured in 2013, 2017, 2019. He never skipped it but he was never fit. I would assume he wasn't fit in 2012 either.
Nole was injured in 2016 2017 2019. He was fully fit in all these years at AO, except 2017.

Now, Nadal won USO in 2017 2019 which are only two events where both fed and Nole were out of the picture. Without these two, Nadal would have more finals at AO, and just 1 more USOpen semis than AO.

Nadal is good enough to win vs Anderson and Medvedev in either AO or USO. But Anderson and Medvedev aren't good enough at AO as USO. So Nadal played better players at AO than at USO and the rest is just luck. Would he win AO 2014 if not injured ? I don't know. Would he win AO12 , maybe.

A big factor here is Federer. He made 1 USOpen final between 2009 and 2023. That's really poor. Federer was poor at USOpen. In the same time frame he made 4 finals at AO winning 3.
Click to expand...
Nice call.

Also, I have a theory about Fed. I was at the 2012 USO and also the 2018 USO. I think Fed has a terrible time dealing with humidity, due to his inability to sweat. And it got a lot worse as he got older. Nadal sweats like a maniac, which is a good thing. Sweating cools the body. Anyway, the temp wasn't too bad in 2012; high 70s, but 80% humidity. New York is weird like that. But I remember telling my wife that there was no way that Fed would keep his #1 ranking. He looked a bit off when we saw him at the tourney. Worse yet, 2018 was horrendous-- 93 degrees and about 70% humidity. This clearly had a MASSIVE impact on Fed's play. He looked horrendous. Even I struggled a bit with that heat there and I sweat a lot. I've played tennis in 97 degree heat wtih 50% humidity before. Humidity kills. And it appeared to hamper Fed in 2012 and destroy him in 2018. My wife was dying there, but had fun anyway. The Honey Deuce drinks helped somewhat to cool us off.
 
Pheasant said:
Nice call.

Also, I have a theory about Fed. I was at the 2012 USO and also the 2018 USO. I think Fed has a terrible time dealing with humidity, due to his inability to sweat. And it got a lot worse as he got older. Nadal sweats like a maniac, which is a good thing. Sweating cools the body. Anyway, the temp wasn't too bad in 2012; high 70s, but 80% humidity. New York is weird like that. But I remember telling my wife that there was no way that Fed would keep his #1 ranking. He looked a bit off when we saw him at the tourney. Worse yet, 2018 was horrendous-- 93 degrees and about 70% humidity. This clearly had a MASSIVE impact on Fed's play. He looked horrendous. Even I struggled a bit with that heat there and I sweat a lot. I've played tennis in 97 degree heat wtih 50% humidity before. Humidity kills. And it appeared to hamper Fed in 2012 and destroy him in 2018. My wife was dying there, but had fun anyway. The Honey Deuce drinks helped somewhat to cool us off.
Click to expand...
If that is true then it's even more incredible that Federer won 5 straight usopens.
 
tudwell said:
The gap in competition is pretty remarkable:

Matches played against top 5:
9 at AO (9.7% of career matches at the event)
7 at USO (8.9%)

Matches played against top 10:
20 at AO (21.5%)
12 at USO (15.2%)

Matches played against top 20:
34 at AO (36.6%)
16 at USO (20.3%)

In other words, he's played more top ten players at the Aussie than he has top twenty players at the USO – both in raw terms and proportionally. Of course he's also fared better against those top opponents at the US Open, so there is some justification for the argument that he's genuinely better there. But the significantly easier draws makes it a bit tough to compare.
Click to expand...
This is some quality analysis, unlike some cherry picking nonsense
 
BorgTheGOAT said:
AO 12 is better than USO 13. Going to five with peak Djoko at his pet slam trumps beating a mediocre version of Djo at a slam where he was always vulnerable to losses. On top Nadal had the semi against Federer.
Click to expand...
I think Nadal being much better at the USO than AO is greatly exaggerated. I'm pretty sure he would've won AO in 2017 as well without having to face a top 25 player.
 
nachiket nolefam said:
Nadal's AO draws were tougher than USO draws in general. Is it because of his lack of preparation or something else I don't know. But in general he was playing high ranked players in AO.

Since start of the century, AO had some of the best matches in tennis. While USOpen has been turbulent. Most players get injured here not just Nadal.

From the big 3, fed was injured in 2013, 2017, 2019. He never skipped it but he was never fit. I would assume he wasn't fit in 2012 either.
Nole was injured in 2016 2017 2019. He was fully fit in all these years at AO, except 2017.

Now, Nadal won USO in 2017 2019 which are only two events where both fed and Nole were out of the picture. Without these two, Nadal would have more finals at AO, and just 1 more USOpen semis than AO.

Nadal is good enough to win vs Anderson and Medvedev in either AO or USO. But Anderson and Medvedev aren't good enough at AO as USO. So Nadal played better players at AO than at USO and the rest is just luck. Would he win AO 2014 if not injured ? I don't know. Would he win AO12 , maybe.

A big factor here is Federer. He made 1 USOpen final between 2009 and 2023. That's really poor. Federer was poor at USOpen. In the same time frame he made 4 finals at AO winning 3.
Click to expand...
AO being early compared to USO and speeding up the surface in 2017 sure helped matters.
 
tudwell said:
The gap in competition is pretty remarkable:

Matches played against top 5:
9 at AO (9.7% of career matches at the event)
7 at USO (8.9%)

Matches played against top 10:
20 at AO (21.5%)
12 at USO (15.2%)

Matches played against top 20:
34 at AO (36.6%)
16 at USO (20.3%)

In other words, he's played more top ten players at the Aussie than he has top twenty players at the USO – both in raw terms and proportionally. Of course he's also fared better against those top opponents at the US Open, so there is some justification for the argument that he's genuinely better there. But the significantly easier draws make it a bit tough to compare.
Click to expand...
I remember reading that Nadal has less matches against top 5, top 10 and top 20 at the USO than even Stan.
 
mike danny said:
I think Nadal being much better at the USO than AO is greatly exaggerated. I'm pretty sure he would've won AO in 2017 as well without having to face a top 25 player.
Click to expand...
He isn’t. Nadal’s game is best suited for slow courts and while there has been a lot of variance in court speed at both tournaments over the years, on average, USO is still the faster HC slam. Nadal played 5 finals at the USO and 6 at the AO. He won the AO before the USO but simply has a better conversion rate at the latter. Prime Djokovic twice, a good Federer and a GOATING Stan where he himself was partly hampered by injuries (before people coming after me, Stan deserved the win and would likely have won anyways). Had he gotten Med and Kevin Anderson instead of Stan and Fed at the AO title counts were reversed.
 
mike danny said:
I remember reading that Nadal has less matches against top 5, top 10 and top 20 at the USO than even Stan.
Click to expand...
Yeesh. Yeah, just looked it up on the ATP site. Stan has:

10 matches against top 5 opponents (16.4% of all matches)
15 matches against top 10 opponents (24.6%)
20 matches against top 20 opponents (32.8%)
 
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