Nadal can still easily surpass/match Federer's Slam count
- Thread starter thomasferrett
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Zetty
Hall of Fame
What fun is that? Nadal should keep trying to break records to keep Fed on his toes, so should Novak. He's got plenty of time to do it. I mean look at how many slams Fed has won after 30. I say let the chase for greatness continue.
GabeT
Legend
Gotta love how posters jump from quantity to distribution of slams depending on what’s going on with their favorite player.
Nadal close to winning second CGS?
Never mind, slam counts are all that matter.
Nadal may catch up on Slam count?
Never mind, variety of slam wins is all that matters.
There's a reason why the French Open is the least glorious slam. It rewards running a lot and basically physically outlasting opponents most often than not.
GabeT
Legend
Actually you just made that up. And there’s a reason for THAT!
The slower the speed of a court, the less impact a single shot has, and thus the physicality of the sport (running, playing more low-risk shots - basically just putting the ball in) becomes the dominant factor. It's no longer about who hits better, but about who is more physical. Who can outlast.
GabeT
Legend
Lol. Sure.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Really? Because Nadal was no.2 and Djokovic was no.3.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Just because Federer has done it, doesn't mean they will to. I never understood this argument.
skip1969
Legend
Some people are always ridiculous.
Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
He can still surpass it in theory but it won't be easy. He might even do it in reality if he can rack up French Opens, but let's be honest, Federer will always be the better player on 2/3 surfaces and at 3/4 slams. He's way better indoors. He has more YE #1's (this one's close) and a lot more weeks at #1 (this one's not close and never will be).
But as you all know, the stats are not the primary reason I consider Federer to be the best player I've ever seen anyway.
But as you all know, the stats are not the primary reason I consider Federer to be the best player I've ever seen anyway.
fedtennisphan
Hall of Fame
It’s called wishful thinking. They’re in shell shock. Gotta keep saying that to save face.
What makes you so confident that he has +4 FO guaranteed ?
Have you thought of Djokovic possibly making a good comeback ? Murray ? Wawrinka ?
What about Thiem stepping up on his favourite surface ? Last year he was on clay roll and was stopped by the clay GOAT in the semi finals of the FO, but he is much younger than Nadal and he is becoming more experienced, improving his play while Nadal on the other side is slowly declining because of his age and his playing style.
Goffin could also step up the game, last year he was very close to winning against Nadal in Monte Carlo, until the moment the umpire screwed up with his bad call and Goffin went completely down mentaly.
And let's not also forget Chung and Zverev, especially Chung who can show great results on clay considering his playing style.
Have you thought of Djokovic possibly making a good comeback ? Murray ? Wawrinka ?
What about Thiem stepping up on his favourite surface ? Last year he was on clay roll and was stopped by the clay GOAT in the semi finals of the FO, but he is much younger than Nadal and he is becoming more experienced, improving his play while Nadal on the other side is slowly declining because of his age and his playing style.
Goffin could also step up the game, last year he was very close to winning against Nadal in Monte Carlo, until the moment the umpire screwed up with his bad call and Goffin went completely down mentaly.
And let's not also forget Chung and Zverev, especially Chung who can show great results on clay considering his playing style.
Zetty
Hall of Fame
Who said that? I said why not try. The chase is the fun part and Rafa and Novak are game for trying. They've made Fed consistently raise his game, which is what I want to see. End of story and this is from a Fed fan.
IowaGuy
Hall of Fame
MugOpponent
Hall of Fame
I think Nadal can get to 20. As long as the field is this injury riddled and lacking emerging stars, he has a great shot at Roland Garros and the US Open. 22 is probably the very best case scenario but I don't think it's going to happen.
Of course there's no guarantee that Federer stays put. In fact it's very difficult to conjure up who can stop him at Wimbledon this year. Kyrgios could be dangerous on grass. Maybe Djokovic is somehow on a good level at that time. Otherwise I see nothing other than bad health that could keep him from winning it.
Of course there's no guarantee that Federer stays put. In fact it's very difficult to conjure up who can stop him at Wimbledon this year. Kyrgios could be dangerous on grass. Maybe Djokovic is somehow on a good level at that time. Otherwise I see nothing other than bad health that could keep him from winning it.
Rafa the King
Hall of Fame
It ain't over yet but RG this year has become a must if he wants to keep the chase alive. If it's 20-17 after Wimbledon (or 20-18 but only in my dreams) then i'll believe again. Still, if he wins RG and USO again and ends #1 I'll be very much over the moon
There is absolutely no way in hell Nadal is sniffing another US Open. Anyone proclaiming Nadal is even relevant at the USO must be really high. He's played only 1 great fall hard court season (2013). His 2017 USO was a complete joke. 2010, Djokovic choked the final.
They will atone for their past sins and speed up the surface. Federer is due too long. Nadal will go out at the hands of a power hitter before the QF.
FO, we will see if someone on the ATP has grown a pair of balls to challenge Nadal. It is hilarious though to think he can win 14 FO...LOL, no, in your dreams. The field will eventually catch up and even Nadal cannot avoid father time.
And after last year, I will be damned if Federer allows Nadal to stay at #1. There is no way in hell Nadal should finish a 5th year at #1. Fed will be smart to sit out the clay court season again, and go firing the rest of the way. If he takes Wimby and USO both, regardless of what Nadal does at FO, Fed will finish a 6th year at #1.
If this turns out to be, it is over for Nadal. He might remain relevant in 2019, but I will really be surprised if Nadal sniffs a grand slam again in 2020.
This year is the kill year for Fed. This fairy tale will have a happy ending.
They will atone for their past sins and speed up the surface. Federer is due too long. Nadal will go out at the hands of a power hitter before the QF.
FO, we will see if someone on the ATP has grown a pair of balls to challenge Nadal. It is hilarious though to think he can win 14 FO...LOL, no, in your dreams. The field will eventually catch up and even Nadal cannot avoid father time.
And after last year, I will be damned if Federer allows Nadal to stay at #1. There is no way in hell Nadal should finish a 5th year at #1. Fed will be smart to sit out the clay court season again, and go firing the rest of the way. If he takes Wimby and USO both, regardless of what Nadal does at FO, Fed will finish a 6th year at #1.
If this turns out to be, it is over for Nadal. He might remain relevant in 2019, but I will really be surprised if Nadal sniffs a grand slam again in 2020.
This year is the kill year for Fed. This fairy tale will have a happy ending.
MugOpponent
Hall of Fame
Nadal has won 3 US Opens since Fed last won a USO. You can ***** and moan about draws and opponents choking, the facts are Nadal won them. Fed had a cake draw at this AO and I could say Cilic choked it.( I don't actually believe the latter.)It still doesn't change the fact, Federer won it.
It's also rather funny to read that Nadal winning 14 FO is so amusing, when Federer went four years without a slam and put it together later on. No one has ever been as dominant at one event as Nadal is at Roland Garros. I don't think he'll win 14, but I think 12 is basically a lock with decent health and 13 isn't unrealistic.
mavsman149
Hall of Fame
He's obviously not in the same league but he is a 2 time Wimbledon champ, he's definitely a threat
Fiero425
Hall of Fame
It was made Borg a GOD in the tennis world until Sampras & Fedalovic! His name came up every time due to winning 6 FO's; 4 in a row!
Fiero425
Hall of Fame
I'm sure Rafa thought he had a chance to overcome Fed in the majors count, but the gutless tour has allowed "Gramps" to take 3 more majors the last year! Who would have thunk it? Certainly not me! I thought he was fortunate to get his pigeon in that '12 Wimbledon final, but even a couple weeks later fell to Murray in the Olympics on his "home court!"
D
Deleted member 77403
Guest
The problem here is Federer is a moving target, he is the massive fav for Wimbledon. If Federer keeps winning slams, Nadal will not be able to catch him, and currently it is Nadal who is carrying injury after injury. Last two events, he quit because of injury. RG is very physically demanding, to expect him to keep winning it for the next three years close to his 34-35 birthday is a little too much.
Nadal was four slams behind Federer after USO 2013, now, four and half years later, he is STILL four slams behind Federer, with more mileage, a body that has had more injuries - since USO 2013, Nadal injured his back in AO 2014, injured his wrists in RG 2016, injured his knees at WTF 2017, tore a muscle in AO 2018...he is only human, and his body has taken an absolute beating. The field may not be so great, but what can you do when your body starts failing you?
I don't think Federer has stopped winning slams, and it is unwise to assume it also, considering he has won three of the last five.
Nadal was four slams behind Federer after USO 2013, now, four and half years later, he is STILL four slams behind Federer, with more mileage, a body that has had more injuries - since USO 2013, Nadal injured his back in AO 2014, injured his wrists in RG 2016, injured his knees at WTF 2017, tore a muscle in AO 2018...he is only human, and his body has taken an absolute beating. The field may not be so great, but what can you do when your body starts failing you?
I don't think Federer has stopped winning slams, and it is unwise to assume it also, considering he has won three of the last five.
Fiero425
Hall of Fame
But he has to get to the final! Sooner or later, those matches leading up to it will start to get tough; esp. with that ridiculous way he likes to play the game! Players can't play indefinitely using those tactics of "outlasting" their opponent! Look at Ferrer & Berdynch who are the best conditioned athletes out there! The drop off is apparent with age! I keep hearing from the commentators what a great volley Rafa has, but the only time he seems to venture up there is when the point's already won! He could cut those points off and close out matches sooner if he had the mental fortitude to do so!
Chanwan
G.O.A.T.
impeccable logic and impeccable thread. Again. How did you get so wise?
A key point though is that Nadal has GOAT level ability on clay. He knows how to control the play on clay better than arguably anyone else in the history of the mens game, on clay he can protect his physical decline from being exploited. OTOH off clay he's nowhere near GOAT level, not even close, not even close, which is why he's forced to defend and run so much to be competitive. He took almost 4 hours to beat the journeymen-like Diego Scwhartzmann at this Aus Open. I still think on clay at the FO he'll win at least 1 more unless this year his physical decline really nosedives.But he has to get to the final! Sooner or later, those matches leading up to it will start to get tough; esp. with that ridiculous way he likes to play the game! Players can't play indefinitely using those tactics of "outlasting" their opponent! Look at Ferrer & Berdynch who are the best conditioned athletes out there! The drop off is apparent with age! I keep hearing from the commentators what a great volley Rafa has, but the only time he seems to venture up there is when the point's already won! He could cut those points off and close out matches sooner if he had the mental fortitude to do so!
Fiero425
Hall of Fame
Topping it all against Nadal is his inability to hold onto the #1 ranking for a sustained length of time! His body's breaking down so fast, he can't stay on the court longer than a year or so before needing to take time away from the tour! It the reason players like Kei & Milos will never get to that illustrious position! I don't blame them, but the way the game's played is really debilitating to anything short of perfection! If too short or too tall; that's a detriment! Being too muscle-bound like Nadal is also a reason the breakdowns are coming faster and more furious! Nole's held on the longest of late thru his stretch with a slim, slight build with nary an ounce of fat on him! Roger's game helps his durability; not having 30-40 stroke wars so he's better in the battles!
DRII
G.O.A.T.
you should leave the thought that your username is now rather redundant.
Nadal will turn 32 before he has the opportunity to win another slam.
anhtuanngo
Semi-Pro
zagor
Bionic Poster
His rivals are already married and it didn't really interfere all that much, I'm sure Nadal can multi-task. Physical burnout or injuries however, different situation entirely.
BeatlesFan
Talk Tennis Guru
That would only tie Roger, not surpass him. The whole suggestion of Rafa surpassing Fed when he'll be 32 when the next slam is contested is just laughable. It's little different than endless Nole fans saying in 2015, "he'll win 25 or 30 slams."
Tennisgods
Hall of Fame
All true. Different kind of pressure though; that’s why folks are right when they say he shouldn’t chase the GS record. The pressure will build as he starts to run out of time. It can do funny things to even the most clutch players. Like I said, every FO he fails to win will begin to feel like a huge missed chance to catch Fed.
I don’t think he’ll beat 20 but wouldn’t be shocked if he did.
Well apart from winning more matches at the FO than every other player in history bar one.
Fiero425
Hall of Fame
I still put Navratilova ahead of Court! Most of her titles were won in the pre-Open era with 11 majors "down under" when most players skipped it! No matter how many titles Williams wins, it's hard to put her up there with the iconic players of this or any era due to her apathy, coming and going from the tour to do other things which rubbed me the wrong way! Navratilova kept at it and surpassed all others in the Open era winning majors until she was almost 50 years old taking 59 GS titles! No sport will ever see her LIKE again!
DRII
G.O.A.T.
Nadal's mentality doesn't seem the same.
being a husband and father is something he won't multitask with something that requires so much IMO.
duaneeo
Hall of Fame
Talking sheer numbers here...the Twenties Club.
fedtennisphan
Hall of Fame
But he did have a rival that is 5 years older who he hoped would just get old and retire to make it easier for him. Sorry about his luck.
SLD76
G.O.A.T.
First of all I've been saying this about Fed and Nadal for years when Fed still on 17 slams
It was always laughable the Nadal GOAT talk considering all he had missing from his resume
Federer doing what he has done the past two years was just the cherry on top.
Newballs
Professional
Speaking of math...
+2 with a shirt like that.
FedHeadComposer
Rookie
Seems like if he was going to catch Fed, winning in Melbourne would have been a better strategy than losing. I'm not an expert, though.