Nadal can still easily surpass/match Federer's Slam count

[mightyjeditribble]

Thread has become derailed by another goat debate.

There's no objective goat status really, unless someone is so far head and shoulders above the others that discussion becomes irrelevant.

That being said, slam count is the closest we will ever get to a simple objective criterion for goat-hood.

With current slam count, it's very hard to argue for Rafa as goat.

If Rafa ends up with more slams, he has a legitimate claim to goat by at least one objective criterion. I say this as a Fed fan.

If they are tied, then it gets very interesting - for me it's clearly Fed, but maybe in the future people will consider number of "big titles", which ATP is advertising, as more important, on which Nadal might catch Fed more easily?

Anyway, the whole goat thing is overblown. I'll always prefer Fed's game to Nadal's, no matter who if anyone is goat.

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[Raz11]

Nadal went nearly 3 years without winning a slam prior to last year.

There is also a question about his health. He had to pull out if Brisbane and with his current muscle issue, can't rule out more injuries in the near future.

 

[D.Nalby12]

I think 20 is within Nadal' reach but can't imagine him winning 20+.

 

[Pheasant]

Here’s where I think that the Big 3’s slam count will end up. I am providing the best-case scenarios here. An injury to any of these 3, which is fairly likely at their age, could end their slam-winning days

Federer- I think that Fed has 1 slam left to end at 21. He might squeak out another AO or Wimby title. If somebody in 2008 would have predicted Fed to win a slam in 2018, he would have been laughed off of any forum. What Fed has done is truly remarkable.

Nadal- I think that Nadal can win 2 out of the next 3 FO and then add a hard court title to end at 19. Nadal is still head and shoulders above the field on clay. But time always catches up to ATG. I cannot see Nadal winning the FO from ages 35+. And I cannot see Nadal being healthy enough to win the next 3 consecutive FO titles.

Djokovic- I can see Djokovic winning 2 more hard court slams and 1 more Wimby title to end up at 15. But this assumes that his elbow is 100% fixed.

 

[Sentinel]

Rafa is 31 going on 32. He’s not winning 3-4 FO in a row.

So who else do your guys predict ?

 

[nikdom]

Can? Yes.

On paper he has the age advantage and is still playing good tennis.

Easily? No way.

Likelihood? Doubtful. But who knows. Nobody was predicting 20 slams for Roger either after 2014.

 

[Ray Mercer]

As soon as Rafa loses his stranglehold at the French he’s done.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

Who knows - I think Rafa is still good for two RG and only last year he won the US Open and was up a break in the 5th set in the Australian Open. He is still capable as long as he is healthy.

 

[THE FIGHTER]

Yes, all he needs is Murray’s plus Cilic’s major career totals and that’s it. Easily.

I prefer a stan and del potro combo myself. Only because they beat rafa in their wins.

 

[THE FIGHTER]

Please, stop. He is a soon to be 32 year old defensive baseliner. He has already far surpassed all expectations in the sports history with the longevity he has achieved. Expecting him to win 4 more majors is absurd in the extreme. He does not play tennis like Federer does, he will not last like Federer does.

Nadal played a more aggressive style of play at this years AO. He stilled crashed and burned early from injury. Imagine what shape he’d be in if he played his usual ultra defensive court positioning.

 

[BorisRogerFan]

No more slams for Rafa Christmas. Not even muddy RG.

 

[KINGROGER]

So who else do your guys predict ?

Thiem or some other young player. Rafa is going on 32 he’s not going to be able to play his normal clay game forever.

 

[maruzo]

4 more isn't a huge ask, especially when you auto-win at least 1 Slam (French) per year. So really, all Nadal needs to do is play another 4 years on tour (and he's only 31, let's not forget), and he'll have 4 more French Open's. Then all he needs to do is bag an additional Slam in one of those years, and he's surpassed 20 Slams.

What's the point? He won't have GOAT legitimacy because it's all on clay. I mean, it's not rocket science. Nadal just isn't as good as Fed in all aspects of the game. He's good, don't get me wrong. Just not Federer good.

 

[Shank Volley]

You guys might be laughing at poor, deranged Tom now, but we'll see who's laughing when Kevin Anderson reaches the next four RG finals.

 

[ZiggyStardust]

You guys might be laughing at poor, deranged Tom now, but we'll see who's laughing when Kevin Anderson reaches the next four RG finals.

Ummmm, Kevin will be laughing?

Just because Nads fluked past him on hard courts doesn't mean he has a chance on clay.

 

[Shank Volley]

GabeT having a total meltdown and desperately looking for a new way to deride Federer is just the icing on top of a great two days. Welcome to the Vam©s Brigade, son. Here's a complimentary fairweather fan badge.

 

[Dolgopolov85]

We can all talk in circles about this... Federer and Nadal are both great, Fed won many of his majors in a weak era without nadal, novak, or murray... Fed has never been great on clay I remember Guga owning him at the French.. But lets not forget that Nadal has beaten Federer on grass on the biggest stage (2008). But Federer has the 20 slams! Who wins.. Yo no sé..

At this point, 8 of his 20 slams have come AFTER 2007. And of the 12 slams he won between 2003 and 2007, he beat Nadal/Djokovic in the final of 3 of them. That makes it 11, which is almost equal to Djokovic's total slam tally. The short point is if Fed just got lucky beating weak opponents, then he shouldn't have won so many from the commencement of the 'strong' era. That is all assuming I excuse Nadal for not getting to Fed on HC slams up to 2008 and I don't. It's like dissing Cilic as a slam final opponent. Well, if he is so weak, why couldn't Nadal beat him?

 

[Pagoo]

GabeT having a total meltdown and desperately looking for a new way to deride Federer is just the icing on top of a great two days. Welcome to the Vam©s Brigade, son. Here's a complimentary fairweather fan badge.

That guy has been in a world of pain since last year. Federer made a mockery of his thread (something about Djokovic doing better than Fedal in their thirties). He's now a shrill for Nadal. Hilarious stuff!

 

[zagor]

We can all talk in circles about this... Federer and Nadal are both great, Fed won many of his majors in a weak era without nadal, novak, or murray... Fed has never been great on clay I remember Guga owning him at the French.. But lets not forget that Nadal has beaten Federer on grass on the biggest stage (2008). But Federer has the 20 slams! Who wins.. Yo no sé..

That same Murray who's 1-9 in sets against Fed in slam finals (the favourite H2H stat to beat Fed with)? What on earth is he doing there with all due respect to Muzza (who I think is a fantastic player)?

If players repeteadly losing to Fed in slam finals makes an era weak then why is Murray a part of this argument?

 

[MichaelNadal]

Bc having the second most majors ever is such a tragedy who cares.

 

[Shank Volley]

That guy has been in a world of pain since last year. Federer made a mockery of his thread (something about Djokovic doing better than Fedal in their thirties). He's now a shrill for Nadal. Hilarious stuff!

Is there anything better than watching members of another fanbase being exposed as glory hunters? Well...maybe watching your favourite player win slams is a close second.

 

[Pagoo]

Is there anything better than watching members of another fanbase being exposed as glory hunters? Well...maybe watching your favourite player win slams is a close second.

Yup. It's funny. Tag-teaming.

 

[fedfan39]

There is absolutely no way to predict anyone's slam count.

Remember Jim Courier? He used to look close to unstoppable at AO and FO. He lost 2 slam finals in 1993, and he was just never dominant ever. He was still good for 2 more years but never sniffed a slam again.

When the train stops, it screeches to a halt. Never a gradual stop.

At their ages, each of Fed, Djokovic and Nadal might have won their last slam. Winning the next slam will only be harder from now on, including the great Nadal at the FO.

We shall see how the clay season shakes out, but I am personally hesitant in handing the FO trophy to Nadal. The maligned next gen. is one year older and wiser, and the collective resistance will only rise. We shall see.

 

[Sentinel]

Thiem or some other young player. Rafa is going on 32 he’s not going to be able to play his normal clay game forever.

Yeah. @sureshs also says that same guy winning RG is not good for tennis.

Same guy always winning is not healthy for the sport

 

[Defcon]

He's a clay court specialist lucky to be born in an era when all other courts were slowed down and thus favored him. If USO/Wimby were fast I doubt Rafa ever wins them.

And there's no way he's going to last as long as Fed. He's already falling apart.

 

[fedtennisphan]

There is absolutely no way to predict anyone's slam count.

Remember Jim Courier? He used to look close to unstoppable at AO and FO. He lost 2 slam finals in 1993, and he was just never dominant ever. He was still good for 2 more years but never sniffed a slam again.

When the train stops, it screeches to a halt. Never a gradual stop.

At their ages, each of Fed, Djokovic and Nadal might have won their last slam. Winning the next slam will only be harder from now on, including the great Nadal at the FO.

We shall see how the clay season shakes out, but I am personally hesitant in handing the FO trophy to Nadal. The maligned next gen. is one year older and wiser, and the collective resistance will only rise. We shall see.

You are so correct. Fans of these players need to stop thinking GS title are going to come easy because the field is weak. Now that Federer has 20 GS titles, the ball is now in Nadal and Djokovic court. It’s hard to win GS titles if you’re injured or out of form.

 

[tennisaddict]

So, if Nole wins another FO and AO and another YEC will you accept he is, at least, the equivalent of Fed? Doubt it.

Thanks for the joke. So Djoker at 14 majors + 6 WTF is same as Fed at 20 majors + 6 WTF ? LOL !

 

[Rhino]

Federer can still easily surpass Federer's Slam count. Way more easily than Nadal can.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

EVEN if we say that Nadal doesn't win any other Slam apart from the French Open ever again, do you really see anyone stopping him from winning the French Open in the next 4 years? No? Well, in 4 years, 20 Slams will be in the bag, then. In 5 years, 21 in the bag. In 6 years, 22 - and so on.

The point is that Nadal is guaranteed to win at least one Slam every year. Federer has no such guarantee, so it's a lot more difficult for him to rack up Slams.

So, where is this going for you?

Why don't you sit back and enjoy your prediction come true as the years go by and Federer falls into oblivion while Nadal (or Djokovic) emerge from the shadows as the greatest tennis player of the open era?

 

[Denio93]

Murray LOL. Let's stop acting like he was ever a threat.

Murray is not coming back and djok should consider surgery himself. Fed skips clay court season if rafa is healthy and is fresh going into Wimbledon.

 

[BeatlesFan]

There is also a question about his health. He had to pull out if Brisbane and with his current muscle issue, can't rule out more injuries in the near future.

He didn't have any "muscle issue" when he pulled out of Brisbane. That supposedly developed during the Cilic match.

 

[Raz11]

He didn't have any "muscle issue" when he pulled out of Brisbane. That supposedly developed during the Cilic match.

I didn't say it was because of a "muscle issue", just that he had to pull out of Brisbane in general. There was still doubt whether he would even participate heading into AO and even throughout the tournament, I wasn't sure if he would even finish the tournament without getting injured which in the end he did.

 

[Wilander Fan]

Personally, I say he has one slam left in him if the stars align and alot of players kill each other off in his draw. The guy is a step slower and injuries tend to accumulate.

But so what if he doesnt win another. The guy has achieved real greatness in his sport no matter how you look at it.

 

[gifman]

.

 

[liam the shark]

I dont have time to reply to you all haha sorry.. but wow I was even giving Federer credit in my post and some of you (not all of you) just got butthurt. I like debating but when you reply all snarky like im some idiot.. come on.. this is a gentlemans sport so act like gentlemen kids

 

[SinjinCooper]

There's no objective goat status really, unless someone is so far head and shoulders above the others that discussion becomes irrelevant.

Well, here we are. Now what?

 

[Shank Volley]

I dont have time to reply to you all haha sorry.. but wow I was even giving Federer credit in my post and some of you (not all of you) just got butthurt. I like debating but when you reply all snarky like im some idiot.. come on.. this is a gentlemans sport so act like gentlemen kids

Oh the irony of being called kids by someone whose mom still buys their clothes.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Well, here we are. Now what?

You read the rest of my post?

slam count is the closest we will ever get to a simple objective criterion for goat-hood.

"The closest we will ever get" was a bit ambiguous though. I should have said "the closest we have right now". Stats that people consider important will change over time. E.g. I'm not sure that slam count had the prominence it had before Sampras broke the record. ATP is trying to promote "Big Title" count etc., who knows whether that catches on.

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk

 

[Sport]

slam count don't matter

Nadal could win 20 more FO it still wouldn't matter

everybody knows he is Clay goat

what's his slam tally outside the FO.

6 majors
Fed's slam tally outside Wimbledon?

12

Of course the Grand Slam count matters. Federer would never be considered better than Nadal or Sampras if he had only won 5 Grand Slams.

There are two main objective criteria of goatness: 1) Grand Slam total 2) Career Grand Slam.

If Nadal ends up his career with more Grand Slams than Federer (which probably will never happen) he would be the GOAT, since he already has achieved the Career Grand Slam, showing all-surfaces adaptation in GS.

By the way, the fact that Federer has won more Majors outside Wimbledon than Nadal outside Roland Garros only indicates one thing: Federer is less dominant on grass than Nadal on clay. But it doesn't illustrate that his GS titles are more evenly distributed by surface, since Federer only has 1 GS on clay and Nadal has at least 2 GS on each surface (hard, grass or clay). So Nadal would be both the clay GOAT and the overall GOAT.

Nadal has won at least 2 GS titles on each surface (hard, grass and clay). Federer only has won 1 GS on clay. Therefore, Nadal has his GS titles more evenly distributed by surface than Federer. 2 GS on each surface >>>> 1 GS on each surface.

 

[Deleted member 756486]

Lol classic thread.

Still not sure where I stand on the slam race, Federer is the favorite but I could see Nadal winning RG for another 2-3 years providing he stays fit. I think this years Wimbledon and USO may be Federer's last real chance to extend his slam count. Federer is incredible but I can’t see him winning slams in 2019 that would be too much, the youngsters can’t suck forever.

 

[Fiero425]

Lol classic thread.

Still not sure where I stand on the slam race, Federer is the favorite but I could see Nadal winning RG for another 2-3 years providing he stays fit. I think this years Wimbledon and USO may be Federer's last real chance to extend his slam count. Federer is incredible but I can’t see him winning slams in 2019 that would be too much, the youngsters can’t suck forever.

You would think or hope, but look at it the last several years! Federer still owns most of the top players and even though Rafa just intermittently fit and good, he's still done more than this next Gen that has disappointed us so much until recently with Sasha! If he crash and burns at the FO early, we're back at the same point with Fedal running the show for the next couple years! I hope not for all our sakes!

 

[oldmanfan]

The problem here is Federer is a moving target, he is the massive fav for Wimbledon. If Federer keeps winning slams, Nadal will not be able to catch him, and currently it is Nadal who is carrying injury after injury. Last two events, he quit because of injury. RG is very physically demanding, to expect him to keep winning it for the next three years close to his 34-35 birthday is a little too much.

Nadal was four slams behind Federer after USO 2013, now, four and half years later, he is STILL four slams behind Federer, with more mileage, a body that has had more injuries - since USO 2013, Nadal injured his back in AO 2014, injured his wrists in RG 2016, injured his knees at WTF 2017, tore a muscle in AO 2018...he is only human, and his body has taken an absolute beating. The field may not be so great, but what can you do when your body starts failing you?

I don't think Federer has stopped winning slams, and it is unwise to assume it also, considering he has won three of the last five.

Good points. To add to the bold, Federer had 4GS before Nadal won his first at RG2005. Like you've said, the gap was still 4 in 2013. And 13 years (!) after the original 4GS gap, Fed still has 4GS more than Nadal.

Winning 16GS over 13 years makes Nadal amazing.

Winning 20GS, and STILL keep the original 4GS gap from Nadal, makes Federer ridiculous!

To some Nadal fans, it may currently look like a breeze for Nadal to win 4-5GS more. But in 2015/16, I ALSO thought Djokovic would easily pass Nadal's 14, and have a decent chance to pass Fed's 17.
That changed quickly.
For all aspects of tennis, let's hope Djokovic gets back to a decent/great level soon, especially for fans like yourself.

To be fair, I think Nadal has a small chance to get to 21GS, but like you've said, Federer's tally is a moving target so 21GS may not be enough. As a Fedfan, Nadal's chase makes me nervous. MORE importantly, it keeps Federer focused and on his toes, thus continuing to present us with his awesome (IMO) brand of tennis.

Vamos!
Ajde!
Allez!
'MONNNN!
Let's gooooooooooo! @paranoidandroid

 

[pame]

Of course the Grand Slam count matters. Federer would never be considered better than Nadal or Sampras if he had only won 5 Grand Slams.

There are two main objective criteria of goatness: 1) Grand Slam total 2) Career Grand Slam.

If Nadal ends up his career with more Grand Slams than Federer (which probably will never happen) he would be the GOAT, since he already has achieved the Career Grand Slam, showing all-surfaces adaptation in GS.

By the way, the fact that Federer has won more Majors outside Wimbledon than Nadal outside Roland Garros only indicates one thing: Federer is less dominant on grass than Nadal on clay. But it doesn't illustrate that his GS titles are more evenly distributed by surface, since Federer only has 1 GS on clay and Nadal has at least 2 GS on each surface (hard, grass or clay). So Nadal would be both the clay GOAT and the overall GOAT.

Nadal has won at least 2 GS titles on each surface (hard, grass and clay). Federer only has won 1 GS on clay. Therefore, Nadal has his GS titles more evenly distributed by surface than Federer. 2 GS on each surface >>>> 1 GS on each surface.

Convenient of you to concentrate only on surfaces, and totally ignore the actual slam distribution of at least 5 titles at 3 different slams. I guess the cherry picking will never stop. And all the while stats on every stat site refer primarily to the slams themselves. With the slams as the - no pun intended - major criteria, it is possible to make some rational comparison that includes the Lavers of the world, who played their slams, 3 on grass and one on clay. If the criterion is surfaces, then no meaningful comparison is possible since both the AO and USO surfaces have changed over the years.

 

[Matterhorn]

Good points. To add to the bold, Federer had 4GS before Nadal won his first at RG2005. Like you've said, the gap was still 4 in 2013. And 13 years (!) after the original 4GS gap, Fed still has 4GS more than Nadal.

Winning 16GS over 13 years makes Nadal amazing.

Winning 20GS, and STILL keep the original 4GS gap from Nadal, makes Federer ridiculous!

To some Nadal fans, it may currently look like a breeze for Nadal to win 4-5GS more. But in 2015/16, I ALSO thought Djokovic would easily pass Nadal's 14, and have a decent chance to pass Fed's 17.
That changed quickly.
For all aspects of tennis, let's hope Djokovic gets back to a decent/great level soon, especially for fans like yourself.

To be fair, I think Nadal has a small chance to get to 21GS, but like you've said, Federer's tally is a moving target so 21GS may not be enough. As a Fedfan, Nadal's chase makes me nervous. MORE importantly, it keeps Federer focused and on his toes, thus continuing to present us with his awesome (IMO) brand of tennis.

Vamos!
Ajde!
Allez!
'MONNNN!
Let's gooooooooooo! @paranoidandroid

How could you forget the most famous one of 'em all...

Chum Jetze!

 

[Tennisgods]

Of course the Grand Slam count matters. Federer would never be considered better than Nadal or Sampras if he had only won 5 Grand Slams.

There are two main objective criteria of goatness: 1) Grand Slam total 2) Career Grand Slam.

If Nadal ends up his career with more Grand Slams than Federer (which probably will never happen) he would be the GOAT, since he already has achieved the Career Grand Slam, showing all-surfaces adaptation in GS.

By the way, the fact that Federer has won more Majors outside Wimbledon than Nadal outside Roland Garros only indicates one thing: Federer is less dominant on grass than Nadal on clay. But it doesn't illustrate that his GS titles are more evenly distributed by surface, since Federer only has 1 GS on clay and Nadal has at least 2 GS on each surface (hard, grass or clay). So Nadal would be both the clay GOAT and the overall GOAT.

Nadal has won at least 2 GS titles on each surface (hard, grass and clay). Federer only has won 1 GS on clay. Therefore, Nadal has his GS titles more evenly distributed by surface than Federer. 2 GS on each surface >>>> 1 GS on each surface.

You can look at this another way though.

Fed has 8 Wimbledon’s. Record.
6 AO, joint record. 5 USO, joint record in Open Era.

Nadal only has a record number of titles at RG. By a huge margin, but still only one record.

 

[HetTheGreaterer]

Nadal will surpass federer in bald area of head

 

[StrongRule]

There is absolutely no way in hell Nadal is sniffing another US Open. Anyone proclaiming Nadal is even relevant at the USO must be really high. He's played only 1 great fall hard court season (2013). His 2017 USO was a complete joke. 2010, Djokovic choked the final.

They will atone for their past sins and speed up the surface. Federer is due too long. Nadal will go out at the hands of a power hitter before the QF.

FO, we will see if someone on the ATP has grown a pair of balls to challenge Nadal. It is hilarious though to think he can win 14 FO...LOL, no, in your dreams. The field will eventually catch up and even Nadal cannot avoid father time.

And after last year, I will be damned if Federer allows Nadal to stay at #1. There is no way in hell Nadal should finish a 5th year at #1. Fed will be smart to sit out the clay court season again, and go firing the rest of the way. If he takes Wimby and USO both, regardless of what Nadal does at FO, Fed will finish a 6th year at #1.

If this turns out to be, it is over for Nadal. He might remain relevant in 2019, but I will really be surprised if Nadal sniffs a grand slam again in 2020.

This year is the kill year for Fed. This fairy tale will have a happy ending.

So funny to read this now. The part about Djokovic choking USO 2010 final is hilarious.

 

[StrongRule]

Right now this whole thread looks funny to be honest. How fast things might change. I still don't think Nadal will surpass Federer's slam record, but this year showed why records should never be considered safe.

 

[Tiki-Taka]

There is absolutely no way in hell Nadal is sniffing another US Open. Anyone proclaiming Nadal is even relevant at the USO must be really high. He's played only 1 great fall hard court season (2013). His 2017 USO was a complete joke. 2010, Djokovic choked the final.

They will atone for their past sins and speed up the surface. Federer is due too long. Nadal will go out at the hands of a power hitter before the QF.

FO, we will see if someone on the ATP has grown a pair of balls to challenge Nadal. It is hilarious though to think he can win 14 FO...LOL, no, in your dreams. The field will eventually catch up and even Nadal cannot avoid father time.

And after last year, I will be damned if Federer allows Nadal to stay at #1. There is no way in hell Nadal should finish a 5th year at #1. Fed will be smart to sit out the clay court season again, and go firing the rest of the way. If he takes Wimby and USO both, regardless of what Nadal does at FO, Fed will finish a 6th year at #1.

If this turns out to be, it is over for Nadal. He might remain relevant in 2019, but I will really be surprised if Nadal sniffs a grand slam again in 2020.

This year is the kill year for Fed. This fairy tale will have a happy ending.

Interesting looking back now.

So what is left for Nadal to surprise you on every matter - be in contention for a Slam in 2020. And should he manage to defend Roland Garros, he would also be only one away from "14 FO... LOL, no, in your dreams".

Such a magnificent competitor...

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

Two more chlems Ralph. Make the wackos move the goalposts to another planet.