Nadal - Djokovic H2H skewness... numbers

Is Nadal-Djokovic matches surface distribution skewed?

  • Yes, by big margine

  • Yes, a little bit

  • No

  • No, are you crazy

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Sport said:
It's not skewed.

1) 50% of their Slam meetings occured outside clay. If Djokovic were more all-around than Nadal, he should lead the H2H in Slams or at least have it tied.

2) They are tied 2-2 on grass.

3) Nadal leads Djokovic 2-1 at the US Open (hard).

4) If Novak had reached the AO 2009, AO 2014 and AO 2017 finals, he would have faced Nadal 3 extra times at the AO. Unfortunately, Djokovic is much less consistent at the AO than Nadal at RG. You are penalizing Nadal for being more consistent at RG than Novak at the AO, which makes no sense.

5) Clay is a valid surface. Nadal winning X number of matches on clay does not make the H2H in Slams less valid. I love Djokovic, but I can't stand the clay denialism "argument".
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1. Yeah. And the other 50% is on clay. Are 50% of the slams on clay? That is skewed.
2. OK?
3. OK?
4. And in your hypothetical, the H2H would still be clay-skewed. An extra 3 AO meetings would make the overall HC meetings 42%. HC represents 50% of the slams. 42% would still be on clay, even though clay represents a meager 25% of overall slams.

(and this is very short-sighted. Djokovic missed 3 AO finals. Yes. How many AO finals did Nadal miss? Seven!)

5. No one said they aren't valid. They certainly count. But they skew toward clay when clay when clay does not represent the majority (or even half) of the slam surfaces.
 
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Oh yall still going? :D Did the slam total change at all as a result of the bickering? 8-B

Shawn-Michaels-Sitting-Over-The-Rope-AWl138.jpg
 
D.Nalby12 said:
Nadal is something more than clay specialist - nobody is denying it. But in the end 13/20 Slams are on clay. He is not super versatile player like Fedovic - you've to admit it.
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And it matters outside of TTW? :love: What he's done at RG is the most impressive thing in tennis history, period. Yall can try to spin it as a negative as much as you want. 13FO's is beyond comprehension and he's done more than enough "off clay" as silly as that is in the first place.
 
D.Nalby12 said:
Nadal is something more than clay specialist - nobody is denying it. But in the end 13/20 Slams are on clay. He is not super versatile player like Fedovic - you've to admit it.
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If Djokovic is super versatile, why do his fans cry about surface distribution of H2H matches?
 
Winner said:
If Djokovic is super versatile, why do his fans cry about surface distribution of H2H matches?
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We don't cry... We just logically explain strange thing... ;)

Nadal can't have losing h2h if he overwhelmingly played on his favorite surface... Can't be more simple... No?

Imagine Nadal playing most his h2h matches indoor... LooL... Masacre...
 
Winner said:
Djokovic has 12/18 on hard. That's a higher percentage.
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Djokovic is sooooo much better and has 2 to 3x as many chances to win slams as the "clay specialist" and is still chasing him somehow :unsure:

beard said:
There are TWO hard court slams... Do you understand what we are talking about at all... Please go back to post #1, and read all again, but read slowly this time, lol...
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Exactly, so what's the problem? :-D #CatchUpThen #21-18ComingSoon boo :p

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beard said:
There are TWO hard court slams... Do you understand what we are talking about at all... Please go back to post #1, and read all again, but read slowly this time, lol...
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2 Hard court slams.
1 Clay court slam.

That's a hardcourt skew is it?

Djoker has 2 slams on favourite surface, Nadal has 1, and after a decade of utter dominance Djokovic is still chasing Rafa. How come?


beard said:
Imagine Nadal playing most his h2h matches indoor... LooL... Masacre...
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The last Nadal Djokovic match was played indoors, and it was a massacre. It was a mess. Crazy match. At some point, bakery products were crumbling around the court.
 
D.Nalby12 said:
Proves nothing more than being a clay specialist.

I would have preferred 3-4 other Slams at cost of his FOs.
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And I would prefer he keep his haters clutching irrelevant straws :love:

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There is nothing more mythical in tennis than Nadal at the FO and it remains to this day the biggest ask in tennis to try to even take a set off him at Chatrier. I wouldn't change that for the world :D
 
One could argue Djokovic has three hard court slams a year. The FO seemed to be pretty hard for him the last 15 years.
 
Winner said:
2 Hard court slams.
1 Clay court slam.

That's a hardcourt skew is it?

Djoker has 2 slams on favourite surface, Nadal has 1, and after a decade of utter dominance Djokovic is still chasing Rafa. How come?



The last Nadal Djokovic match was played indoors, and it was a massacre. It was a mess. Crazy match. At some point, bakery products were crumbling around the court.
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You still don't understand this thread, or trolling... I guess it's later because rares are that stupid, so will stop here...

About last FO indoor... Yes, you even more proved how Nadal is really, really clay specialist after all... He can even overcome his indoor problem at clay...
 
beard said:
You still don't understand this thread, or trolling... I guess it's later because rares are that stupid, so will stop here...
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I understand this thread. It clearly points out that 50% of slams are on hard, 67% of masters are on hard, roughly 70% of the whole tour is on hard, which is Nole's preferred surface, and yet he still can't gain a significant edge over Rafa and even trails him in the most important tennis achievement.

About last FO indoor... Yes, you even more proved how Nadal is really, really clay specialist after all... He can even overcome his indoor problem at clay...
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Nadal's best two slams off clay: USO 4 titles, Wimbledon 2 = 6
Djokovic' two slams off hard: Wimbledon 5, FO 1 = 6
 
beard said:
Try googling "math + distribution"...

My last attempt to help you understand the topic...

Good luck poor thing... :)
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WTF...
This tournament is once a year, so Nadal and Djokovic should play same number of matches as they played at Rolland Garros, but they played only 5 matches (3:2 for Novak).
So, they need to play 2 more hard court matches to even distribution...
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Math and distribution seem to trouble you.
5 matches at WTF played + 2 demanded in your OP is 7. You call that even distribution with FO. FO has 8 matches. 7=8?
 
MichaelNadal said:
And I would prefer he keep his haters clutching irrelevant straws :love:

a57c17aad3e1c598c13273dbbb7e6865.gif


There is nothing more mythical in tennis than Nadal at the FO and it remains to this day the biggest ask in tennis to try to even take a set off him at Chatrier. I wouldn't change that for the world :D
Click to expand...

I don't think you've any point here. Even if Nadal goes undefeated for next 100 matches at FO what else it will prove other than him being Clay GOAT (something we already know) ?

He needs more Slams off clay to elevate his overall standing.
 
Winner said:
What beard sees in Fedal rivalry:
clay skew


What we see in Fedal rivalry.

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All I see is a thirsty Ultronian reaching beyond the pram as they have for the last 10 years :D

D.Nalby12 said:
I don't think you've any point here. Even if Nadal goes undefeated for next 100 matches at FO what else it will prove other than him being Clay GOAT (something we already know) ?

He needs more Slams off clay to elevate his overall standing.
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Clearly this is all beyond you :D He doesn't play for TTW trophies :-D
 
D.Nalby12 said:
I don't think you've any point here. Even if Nadal goes undefeated for next 100 matches at FO what else it will prove other than him being Clay GOAT (something we already know) ?

He needs more Slams off clay to elevate his overall standing.
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Does that mean Nole's AO win didn't elevate his overall pedigree?
 
Let me get this straight. The Nole fans, the kings of declaring that only real matches count regardless of circumstances and anything else is just fantasy & excuses, are complaining about a skewed H2H.

You hate to see it.
276560-roger-fed-laughing-700.jpg
 
Both sides of this thread are simultaneously making me nod in approval and cringe in disapproval. It's odd when you don't have a horse in the race.

but go nads
 
Guys, this one isn't that hard. The main reason for the surface "skew" is that Rafa is better on clay than anybody else in modern tennis history is on any surface. So if Novak (or anybody else) makes it to the end of a big clay tournament, chances are they will have to face Rafa.

Rafa is better on clay than Novak is on hardcourt. That's really all there is to it.
 
MeatTornado said:
Let me get this straight. The Nole fans, the kings of declaring that only real matches count regardless of circumstances and anything else is just fantasy & excuses, are complaining about a skewed H2H.

You hate to see it.
276560-roger-fed-laughing-700.jpg
Click to expand...
Third Serve said:
Both sides of this thread are simultaneously making me nod in approval and cringe in disapproval. It's odd when you don't have a horse in the race.

but go nads
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#YallAreInvitedToTheCookout :p and to the opening of Velocicoaster in Jurassic World in Orlando :D Beers on me lol

 
daggerman said:
Guys, this one isn't that hard. The main reason for the surface "skew" is that Rafa is better on clay than anybody else in modern tennis history is on any surface. So if Novak (or anybody else) makes it to the end of a big clay tournament, chances are they will have to face Rafa.

Rafa is better on clay than Novak is on hardcourt. That's really all there is to it.
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Nadal being Clay GOAT is just half part of story. Other part is he has been horribly inconsistent outside of Clay through out his career. He avoided Fedovic many times by losing early to nobodies. That explains his h2h lead.
 
D.Nalby12 said:
Nadal being Clay GOAT is just half part of story. Other part is he has been horribly inconsistent outside of Clay through out his career. He avoided Fedovic many times by losing early to nobodies. That explains his h2h lead.
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And they avoided him by losing to nobodies too :p

f_USTA828806_20170910_DCX_1719.jpg

https%3A%2F%2Fhypebeast.com%2Fimage%2F2019%2F09%2Frafael-nadal-us-open-championship-info-001.jpg

giphy.gif
 
D.Nalby12 said:
Nadal being Clay GOAT is just half part of story. Other part is he has been horribly inconsistent outside of Clay through out his career. He avoided Fedovic many times by losing early to nobodies. That explains his h2h lead.
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"Horribly inconsistent" is an exaggeration. "Slightly less consistent than arguably the two best hard courters ever" is more accurate, and I do agree that plays some role. But I think Nadal's clay prowess plays a bigger role.
 
MichaelNadal said:
And they avoided him many times by losing to nobodies too :p

f_USTA828806_20170910_DCX_1719.jpg

https%3A%2F%2Fhypebeast.com%2Fimage%2F2019%2F09%2Frafael-nadal-us-open-championship-info-001.jpg
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Federer avoided (deliberately) Nadal in 2013 USO - that much I give you. But such instances are rare. Actually both faced Nadal 10+ times at FO itself proves my point. How many times Nadal faced Federer and Djokovic at W - 6 may be. That's how you build great h2h losing 100+ ranked nobodies at most prestigious Slams for 6 years in row. Once he started going deep again since 2018 - he has already got his arse handed twice by Fedovic at Wimbledon. He would face similar fate had he gone deep in 2012-17 period.
 
daggerman said:
"Horribly inconsistent" is an exaggeration. "Slightly less consistent than arguably the two best hard courters ever" is more accurate, and I do agree that plays some role. But I think Nadal's clay prowess plays a bigger role.
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Losing to 100+ rankers for 6 years in a row at Wimbledon definitely is horrible consistency in my view. Add to that countless Slams he skipped citing injuries to have better shot at FO. The list is Very long.
 
daggerman said:
"Horribly inconsistent" is an exaggeration. "Slightly less consistent than arguably the two best hard courters ever" is more accurate, and I do agree that plays some role. But I think Nadal's clay prowess plays a bigger role.
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Thank you lol, this. And they ought to be glad bc if Nadal was as good as Fedovic on HC they'd be even more furious :giggle: Wow, he's not as good as the 2 best HCers ever, ok cool!! He's damn sure closer than they are on clay, despite them being GREAT on clay. Therein lies the epicness :D
 
daggerman said:
Guys, this one isn't that hard. The main reason for the surface "skew" is that Rafa is better on clay than anybody else in modern tennis history is on any surface. So if Novak (or anybody else) makes it to the end of a big clay tournament, chances are they will have to face Rafa.

Rafa is better on clay than Novak is on hardcourt. That's really all there is to it.
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Agree as long as you add that he has a much lower level of competition there because he is the only high quality player he has chosen to focus on clay. Much, much harder competition on hardcourt because it is the most common court played at slams and Masters 1000s.
 
Texas Tennis Fan said:
Agree as long as you add that he has a much lower level of competition there because he is the only high quality player he has chosen to focus on clay. Much, much harder competition on hardcourt because it is the most common court played at slams and Masters 1000s.
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that's one point of view, but let's have a look at another one:

which nations dominate top 100?
which surface is dominating in these countries?
any chance top EU and South American players grow and compete on clay? if yes, how do they all of a sudden become HC specialists and forget how to play on clay?
 
That is easy and I have stated before. Because they change their game by having a better hardcourt serve, less topspin, place where they stand for return of serve, and probably a hundred other nuances that make them more of a hardcourt player. Just because one starts as a clay court player doesn't mean you stay there. And Nadal makes tweaks to his game when he is on other surfaces too, but his game is still a clay court game.

Nadal is great, but it helps that he has little quality competition.
 
Texas Tennis Fan said:
That is easy and I have stated before. Because they change their game by having a better hardcourt serve, less topspin, place where they stand for return of serve, and probably a hundred other nuances that make them more of a hardcourt player. Just because one starts as a clay court player doesn't mean you stay there. And Nadal makes tweaks to his game when he is on other surfaces too, but his game is still a clay court game.

Nadal is great, but it helps that he has little quality competition.
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so you're saying that we are facing a weak era?
 
Texas Tennis Fan said:
I am aware that all the players have a lot of clay background. However, I disagree that Nadal is a natural clay courter. He could have developed a much stronger serve for example or chosen to stand closer to the back line to return serves which is a more offensive position and better for hardcourt and grass. My suggestion is that if I taylor my game to ideally fit RG that it is at the cost of not doing as well at other slams and other hardcourt tournaments. Has he done well? Absolutely! He is one of the greatest of all time. Would he have done better if he had focused more on the things he needed to to be stronger on hardcourt and grass. I believe so. Obviously this is speculative. But maybe he would have 25 slams now with only 9 or 10 at RG, but more at the other slams.
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Wow, ok. I guess we'll never agree, on this at least. If you think that the best clay court player ever (and by a large margin) is not a natural clay courter, there is nothing I can say there.

I remember some interview to Toni on spanish tv, where he explained the origin of Nadal's unique forehand motion. He said something on the lines of him being precocious and playing older players, he would reach the ball often short before the second bounce and it was the way he managed to return those low balls.

He has tried to develop a better serve. He has improved that lately, but he's no Kyrgios. They have worked a lot on that to gain a marginal increase.

Standing back isn't good for clay per se; it's good for Nadal. He needs a big swing, so standing closer to the baseline doesn't give him enough time for the whole motion. That's why Djokovic's game hurts him so much, Novak plays very very deep very regularly, even from defensive positions (there are also other things, like the backhand down the line, short angles etc).
 
MadariKatu said:
Wow, ok. I guess we'll never agree, on this at least. If you think that the best clay court player ever (and by a large margin) is not a natural clay courter, there is nothing I can say there.

I remember some interview to Toni on spanish tv, where he explained the origin of Nadal's unique forehand motion. He said something on the lines of him being precocious and playing older players, he would reach the ball often short before the second bounce and it was the way he managed to return those low balls.

He has tried to develop a better serve. He has improved that lately, but he's no Kyrgios. They have worked a lot on that to gain a marginal increase.

Standing back isn't good for clay per se; it's good for Nadal. He needs a big swing, so standing closer to the baseline doesn't give him enough time for the whole motion. That's why Djokovic's game hurts him so much, Novak plays very very deep very regularly, even from defensive positions (there are also other things, like the backhand down the line, short angles etc).
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You just confirmed my point. He is 'natural' only in the sense that he developed those motions, became comfortable with them, and then has stuck with them. He obviously has tremendous talent like all the Big 3 and top 100 players have, but he developed his skills in the direction of the clay court and did not deviate. I think you as a Nadal fan agree that Nadal doesn't deviate very much from anything. Players develop their strokes, their tendencies, their preferences which may be somewhat influenced by their talent, but is mainly choice.

Look at the biggest choice that the Nadal's made, making him a left-hander over being a right-hander. So no, Nadal is not a natural clay-courter or a left-hander; he was trained to be what he is.
 
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