Nadal "easy draw" in USO17 is a myth

Oceans

New User
His projected draw pre-tournament:

1R - Lajovic
2R - Daniel
3R - Gasquet
4R - Berdych/Fognini (Berdych def Nadal AO15, Fognini def Nadal USO15)
QF - Dimitrov/Goffin (Dimitrov 5 sets vs Nadal AO17, Goffin def Nadal WTF17)
SF - Federer
F - Cilic (Cilic def Nadal AO18)

An easy draw is one with favourable seeds pre-tournament.
Some players above were just not good enough to reach him.
 

Third Serve

Hall of Fame
Projected draw doesn't quite equate to the actual draw. A projected draw can usually tell us the general range of the strength of the draw (for example, if #3 player is projected to play the #1 in the semifinals, that tells us that the best possible opponent -- ranking-wise -- in that particular round is that #1 player) but actual draws often turn out to be different than on paper. Just have a look at this:


Note the edits.
 

Breakpointerer

Hall of Fame
Projected draw is different from the actual draw. Anyway, Nadal is the USO17 champ. That's the only thing that matters.
 
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Yugram

Hall of Fame
Nadal projected draw USO 2020

R1. Layhani
R2. Q
R3. LL
R4. Berankis
QF. Walkover
SF. Nishikori (retires after first set)
F. Artem Bahmet
Wasn’t Federer the last man to get walkover after the first set in a Slam SF? Lmao

Looks more like Federer’s projected draw.
 

DerekNoleFam1

Hall of Fame
Nadal projected draw USO 2020

R1. Layhani
R2. Q
R3. LL
R4. Berankis
QF. Walkover
SF. Nishikori (retires after first set)
F. Artem Bahmet
A shame Nole didn't win USO 16 when I look at that.
But who cares, it is in the record books now, and that is all that will be remembered.
 

Bender

G.O.A.T.
His projected draw pre-tournament:

1R - Lajovic
2R - Daniel
3R - Gasquet
4R - Berdych/Fognini (Berdych def Nadal AO15, Fognini def Nadal USO15)
QF - Dimitrov/Goffin (Dimitrov 5 sets vs Nadal AO17, Goffin def Nadal WTF17)
SF - Federer
F - Cilic (Cilic def Nadal AO18)

An easy draw is one with favourable seeds pre-tournament.
Some players above were just not good enough to reach him.
He had a projected tough draw, but that's not what he got. Which one you whine about depends on which camp you're in.

That said, the supposedly tough players capable of making life difficult for Rafa (Federer for example) never made it through. The only tough player that Nadal got was Delpo, who was likely winded after his performance against Thiem. If either one of those players had won the match in 3 or 4 sets then perhaps Nadal's SF would've been a bit tougher.

You could argue that Rafa's draw was deceptively tough despite his opponents' respective rankings (in a similar way in which Gonzalez can be considered a tougher opponent than Nadal was at the 2007 AO) since the likes of Federer got beaten by those guys that Rafa actually got, but since Rafa dispatched his latter round opponents quite easily I'm not sure such an argument can be made.

I guess you could also say that since Fed lost to lesser players Rafa would've beaten Fed but that doesn't make sense, since if Fed didn't lose to Delpo then Fed by definition would've been in better form and therefore would've given Nadal a match.

I nonetheless don't think his draw is particularly meme-worthy or asterisk-worthy. At the end of the day the supposed tough guys lost to Nadal's weak draw. The better players always make it to the next round, and at the 2017 USO, those tough draws weren't good enough. That isn't Nadal's fault and it certainly does not diminish his win.

The only time I would asterisk a win is if a series of players simply give the champion a walkover but that hasn't happened lately. Closest we got was Djokovic at the 2016 USO but he lost in the final anyway.
 

weakera

Legend
Ehhmm an in-form top 10 player in the final (who beat Nadal himself). Two top 20 players.

Not a super difficult draw but it murders 2017/2019 USO in difficulty.

"Who beat Nadal himself" after Nadal succumbed to injury and retired? Lol

"Federer himself" was beaten by Del Potro in '17 (AGAIN) and we all saw what Rogi is capable of against Anderson,





And I love that you're pumping Berdy up with his incredible top-20 distinction lol, what a tough QF-SF with Tomas and the mighty Chung
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
"Who beat Nadal himself" after Nadal succumbed to injury and retired? Lol

"Federer himself" was beaten by Del Potro in '17 (AGAIN) and we all saw what Rogi is capable of against Anderson,





And I love that you're pumping Berdy up with his incredible top-20 distinction lol, what a tough QF-SF with Tomas and the mighty Chung
The might Chung who straight setted Djokovic XD

Nadal no top 20 players. Federer 2 top 20 players. I rest my case.
 

weakera

Legend
Fun fact about Hyeon Chung the legendary semi finalist, he is the lowest ranked semi finalist of the decade other than two instances,

Grigor Dimitrov when he conquered Federer at USO 19,
Marco Cecchinato when he conquered Nole at RG 18.

Next closest is Kyle Edmund, the fourth semi finalist at AO 18 (LOL)
 

blablavla

Hall of Fame
Fun fact about Hyeon Chung the legendary semi finalist, he is the lowest ranked semi finalist of the decade other than two instances,

Grigor Dimitrov when he conquered Federer at USO 19,
Marco Cecchinato when he conquered Nole at RG 18.

Next closest is Kyle Edmund, the fourth semi finalist at AO 18 (LOL)
do you recall who was defeated by Cilic?
or do you really believe that Federer was supposed to refuse playing the final because Nadal lost before the final?
 

weakera

Legend
do you recall who was defeated by Cilic?
or do you really believe that Federer was supposed to refuse playing the final because Nadal lost before the final?
Cilic did a great job of Nadal retiring after a 2-1 lead.

Do you recall who was defeated by Del Potro and Anderson?






Also too freaking hilarious that Nadal faced Chung and Cilic back to back at USO 2019 in the third and fourth round LOL
 

Oceans

New User
If rankings are important, USO17 would be an outlier and stats like 'Slams won defeating a top 2 player' hold significant value. It's either rankings or the eye test.
 

Tennis_Hands

Bionic Poster
Cilic did a great job of Nadal retiring after a 2-1 lead.

Do you recall who was defeated by Del Potro and Anderson?






Also too freaking hilarious that Nadal faced Chung and Cilic back to back at USO 2019 in the third and fourth round LOL
Chung had a ranking of 170 in that tournament, lol, what a joke you are.

 

weakera

Legend
Nadal retired after a 0-2 deficit in the fifth, not after a 2-1 lead.
After holding a 2-1 lead.

But no, I get it, CHUNG-CILIC is a super tough SF and F, but it's also a super easy 3R and 4R one year later lol

And DEL POTRO-ANDERSON is super easy, except for when they're knocking Federer out of grand slams lol
 

blablavla

Hall of Fame
After holding a 2-1 lead.

But no, I get it, CHUNG-CILIC is a super tough SF and F, but it's also a super easy 3R and 4R one year later lol

And DEL POTRO-ANDERSON is super easy, except for when they're knocking Federer out of grand slams lol
guys in top form vs sidelined copies of themselves?
18 months later when the guys didn't play due to injuries?
and their ranking reflected this fall and lack of matchplay experience?

you must be a genius.
 

weakera

Legend
Chung had a ranking of 170 in that tournament, lol, what a joke you are.

Yeah, but in 2018 he was somehow a super tough opponent. He beat Djokovic who was in the middle of his great grand slam run of 2R-QF-QF-A-4R-QF. Just a year later though he transformed into a pigeon after he gave Federer that fantastic battle,

 

Breakpointerer

Hall of Fame
After holding a 2-1 lead.

But no, I get it, CHUNG-CILIC is a super tough SF and F, but it's also a super easy 3R and 4R one year later lol

And DEL POTRO-ANDERSON is super easy, except for when they're knocking Federer out of grand slams lol
Nobody's saying that AO'18 was a tough slam. Just that overall it was a bit better than the USO. It doesn't matter either way, both fully deserved their wins.
 

weakera

Legend
guys in top form vs sidelined copies of themselves?
18 months later when the guys didn't play due to injuries?
and their ranking reflected this fall and lack of matchplay experience?

you must be a genius.

The fact that you're incapable of identifying the double standard you're employing is hilarious. You my friend are definitely the genius.

Just remember, Chung-Cilic is a tougher SF-F than 3R-4R. And Anderson and Del Potro are mugs, unless they're knocking Federer out of grand slams. Then they're quality opponents again.
 

Tennis_Hands

Bionic Poster
Yeah, but in 2018 he was somehow a super tough opponent. He beat Djokovic who was in the middle of his great grand slam run of 2R-QF-QF-A-4R-QF. Just a year later though he transformed into a pigeon after he gave Federer that fantastic battle,

I notice that you completely avoided taking responsibility for your laughable claims of equating Chung from 2018 and Chung from 2019 (as were such about Anderson and Cilic, btw). Apparently "form" is something you have yet to discover to be relevant in tennis comparisons. Fear not, I am here to help you out.

 

blablavla

Hall of Fame
The fact that you're incapable of identifying the double standard you're employing is hilarious. You my friend are definitely the genius.

Just remember, Chung-Cilic is a tougher SF-F than 3R-4R. And Anderson and Del Potro are mugs, unless they're knocking Federer out of grand slams. Then they're quality opponents again.
no.
the fact that you're incapable to use logic it's your problem, not mine.

what I say is:
a player that won 5 matches to reach the SF, or 6 matches to reach the final - is a dangerous opponent, disregarding of current ranking.
same player, 18 months later, after being sidelined due to injuries is not necessarily as dangerous.
 

weakera

Legend
Nobody's saying that AO'18 was a tough slam. Just that overall it was a bit better than the USO.
Oh, but it wasn't lol. You could easily make the case that Chung was the worst slam semi finalist of the decade and one of the worst of all-time. He hasn't otherwise advanced past the third round at a grand slam. He has only twice otherwise advanced past the 3R at a Masters 1000 event. Funny that #8 Matteo Berrettini is the forced meme around here and not Chung, who people have faux respect for because he defeated Djokovic who was at the lowest point of his career.
 

Hitman

Hall of Fame
I notice that you completely avoided taking responsibility for your laughable claims of equating Chung from 2018 and Chung from 2019 (as were such about Anderson and Cilic, btw). Apparently "form" is something you have yet to discover to be relevant in tennis comparisons. Fear not, I am here to help you out.

I guess beating Nadal in slams in 2015 and 2016 was the same as beating him in slams in 2013 and 2014.
 

weakera

Legend
I notice that you completely avoided taking responsibility for your laughable claims of equating Chung from 2018 and Chung from 2019 (as were such about Anderson and Cilic, btw). Apparently "form" is something you have yet to discover to be relevant in tennis comparisons. Fear not, I am here to help you out.


So form matters, but not when we're weighing the fact that Chung defeated Djokovic at AO. That makes Chung special, even though Djokovic was in the worst form of his career.

How many finals in a row did Medvedev make? Doesn't stop him from being called a weak finals opponent by many.

Form also doesn't matter when weighing the Del Potro-Anderson USO 17 victories, even though both proved themselves well above their ranking at the tournament.

Double standards galore lol
 
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