Nadal fans AO delusion

LETitBE

Hall of Fame
from 2017 AO to now he has a total of 2 top ten wins and they were against Raonic and Monfils in 2017
18 to 21 he lost to the first top ten player he faced
he should be the favourite for 22 going by this isnt it?
 

Tennisfan339

Professional
Honestly if Nadal is fit and at 100% (his uncle says he will be) who can beat him in BO5?

DjokoVic.... might not be there, as we know.

Federer... not there

Thiem? His injury looks worse than Nadal. Peak Thiem beat Nadal 76 76 46 76 in Australia. If he hasn't recovered completely, he has no chance.

Tsitsipas? Last year he was playing his absolute best tennis on HC and he almost lost 3 sets 0. His win was pretty miraculous. He has been the shadow of himself since RG. Unless his raises his level in a significant way, he is toast.

Rublev, Ruud, Hurkacz, Norrie? I don't believe any of them would be favorite against Nadal

Sinner is still awful in Grand Slams, the only times he got past the 3rd round he lost in straight sets....

That only leaves Zverev and Medvedev.
Zverev still has 0 win against top-10 in Grand Slams. This is very problematic.
And Nadal is an awful matchup for Medvedev. Even in his pet slam he couldn't have the last word. Even in Indoors conditions, it's 1-1 and last time they played Nadal served for the match. If Medvedev isn't at his best, the upset is clearly possible.

If Djokovic withdraws, all it takes Nadal is a good draw. Medvedev or Zverev can always have an unexpected early upset. If Nadal has a catkewalk until the Semifinals and only has to face one of them (Med or Zed) anything can happen in 1 match.

He is NOT the favorite but he is clearly an outsider. Beating him in BO5 is a very tough thing, we all know that.
 
Last edited:

LETitBE

Hall of Fame
Honestly if Nadal is fit and at 100% (his uncle says he will be) who can beat him in BO5?

DjokoVic.... might not be there, as we know.

Federer... not there

Thiem? His injury looks worse than Nadal. Peak Thiem beat Nadal 76 76 46 76 in Australia. If he hasn't recovered completely, he has no chance.

Tsitsipas? Last year he was playing his absolute best tennis on HC and he almost lost 3 sets 0. His win was pretty miraculous. He has been the shadow of himself since RG. Unless his raises his level in a significant way, he is toast.

Rublev, Ruud, Hurkacz, Norrie? I don't believe any of them would be favorite against Nadal

Sinner is still awful in Grand Slams, the only times he got past the 3rd round he lost in straight sets....

That only leaves Zverev and Medvedev.
Zverev still has 0 win against top-10 in Grand Slams. This is very problematic.
And Nadal is an awful matchup for Medvedev. Even in his pet slam he couldn't have the last word. Even in Indoors conditions, it's 1-1 and last time they played Nadal served for the match. If Medvedev isn't at his best, the upset is clearly possible.

If Djokovic withdraws, all it takes Nadal is a good draw. Medvedev or Zverev can always have an unexpected early upset. If Nadal has a catewalk until the Semifinals and only has to face one of them (Med or Zed) anything can happen in 1 match.

He is NOT the favorite but he is clearly an outsider. Beating him in BO5 is a very tough thing, we all know that.
in other words if he is 100% fit and gets a cakewalk draw(he wont be a top 4 seed) he has an "outside chance"?
and no one talks about the ever possible injury crisis lol
but that always comes after a loss
 
Last edited:

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Imagine Nadal in the “Rublev quarter” (assuming Tsitsipas is out)

I think he’s making that QF even if he’s in rusty injured form. And if he gets anyone but Djokovic in the SF, he’ll have to like his chances.

Zverev and Medvedev are good but I just don’t trust them against the indomitable will of a guy trying to win the Slam race. It’ll take some luck with the draw but there’s a path for him to make the final at least. The worry is he doesn’t have the legs or serve for 7 matches, and I’m not so sure he will, but why not?
Honestly, the Next Gen should be favored on HCs over Nadal at this stage of their careers.
 

The Big Foe fan

Hall of Fame
I've been seeing a lot of Nadal to win AO posts lately(maybe presuming Djokovic not going to Melbourne)

But even then he's 8-10 against top 10 players on hard courts since 2018

He only faced Djokovic twice on hcs in those 4 years (5 times on clay) so that hasn't really been his main issue...it's been other players too so feels like the optimism is a bit o_O
Realistically though, whom will you bet for against him in a potential meeting in BO5 except for Djokovic??
Tsitsipas match was a fluke which doesn't happen every now and then
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
"Nadal is NOT the favorite but he is clearly an outsider."

When the AO is played it will be 13 years since Rafa won the event. Even with this pathetic field, he's not winning it and at 35, he's beyond an outsider at this point.
 

aldeayeah

Legend
"Nadal is NOT the favorite but he is clearly an outsider."

When the AO is played it will be 13 years since Rafa won the event. Even with this pathetic field, he's not winning it and at 35, he's beyond an outsider at this point.
I mean he's not losing to nobodies just yet, so a soft draw could land him in the semis and then anything could happen. The tour is shallower than ever which helps.

Hell this year he reached QF while nursing a back injury with a crapola serve, and almost reached semis. Other than Zedmedovic, who's favored against him?
 
Last edited:

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
I mean he's not losing to nobodies just yet, so a soft draw could land him in the semis and then anything could happen.
He hasn't played in 6 months, no wonder he's not losing to nobodies. Imagine if he'd played Wimbledon, the US hardcourt swing, the USO and the Asian swing.

Sure, miracles in tennis do happen, but Rafa has won the AO once in his entire career and that was 13 years ago. To put it in perspective, Carlos Alcarez was 5 years old then.

And all the people talking about nobody beating Rafa in B05, it's obvious his stamina is nowhere near what it was even 5 years ago. Watch the last 30 minutes of his RG semi against Novak. Rafa was absolutely dead by the beginning of the fourth set.
 
If Nole doesn't play Nadal still has a good shot with a few tourneys under his belt. Lets face it, this new generation is nothing to write home about. They're more than capable of losing to washed up Nadal. LOL
 

The Big Foe fan

Hall of Fame
"Nadal is NOT the favorite but he is clearly an outsider."

When the AO is played it will be 13 years since Rafa won the event. Even with this pathetic field, he's not winning it and at 35, he's beyond an outsider at this point.
Write him off at your own peril. Let's go rafa let's go
 

The Big Foe fan

Hall of Fame
Btw @Sudacafan I really don't think Thiem's technique was an issue. Him overtraining, oberplaying at times and literally going all out on every ball was the problem. He didn't have the body frame to do it.
 

President

Legend
Depends on whether or not Novak plays really. If he comes out as good as he is reportedly looking in practice these days, I rate his chances against anyone but Novak. He's in with a decent shot, at least.
 

Ray Mercer

Hall of Fame
He’s got a shot but he hasn’t played in awhile and he really is old now. There's a lot of guys out there now that can take him down. Zverev, Tsitsipas, Medvedev, Djokovic etc.
 

teotjunk

Rookie
If Djokovic withdraws, all it takes Nadal is a good draw. Medvedev or Zverev can always have an unexpected early upset. If Nadal has a catewalk until the Semifinals and only has to face one of them (Med or Zed) anything can happen in 1 match.
In the last two years, there has been only one early upset for for Med/Zev in the hard court grand slams, in Australian 2020 (Med). Going by Med's form since then, especially in the Masters, I think it is unlikely both of them won't reach the semifinals
 
Last edited:

Ray Mercer

Hall of Fame
Realistically though, whom will you bet for against him in a potential meeting in BO5 except for Djokovic??
Tsitsipas match was a fluke which doesn't happen every now and then
At this point I would definitely take Medvedev and Zverev. Nadal hasn't played well in ages and he's old.
 

The Big Foe fan

Hall of Fame
At this point I would definitely take Medvedev and Zverev. Nadal hasn't played well in ages and he's old.
Zverev has yet to beat top10 players in slam, let alone someone as tough as nadal. He does have game to beat him, but the execution, I'm not so sure of.

As of Medvedev, no way. He required a zombie nadal to finally win against him, and even then Nadal served for the match against him on the Russian's best surface.
 
Top