A lot of comments have been made here about this year's final being low quality. The stats, however, don't bear that out -- not if you're talking about consistently great play over 5 sets.
If you're talking about break points it might be a different story, although even so there's a twist.
A few posters have pointed to Federer's 52 unforced errors in this year's final, but he also had 89 winners. In both categories he has higher numbers than last year, partly because this year's final was longer -- and partly because he was being more aggressive.
WINNERS AND ERRORS
Out of 323 points in last year's final, Federer made 65 winners, a rate of almost exactly 1 winner every 5 points.
Out of 413 points in this year's match, Federer made 89 winners, a rate of 1 every 4.6 points.
Last year he made 34 unforced errors, just slightly more than 1 every 10 points. This year he made 52 unforced errors, a rate of almost exactly 1 per 8 points.
So he was hitting winners at a faster rate in 2008, and also making errors at a faster rate.
Federer's differential this year was +35, and last year it was only +31, but that stat by itself doesn't mean that this year he played better. All the numbers were larger this year because more points were played, so the differential is expected to be larger.
Nadal's differential this year was 33, only 26 last year, but again that doesn't mean he played better. It doesn't even mean he hit winners more aggressively.
Last year Nadal had 50 winners. He was hitting them at a rate of 1 per 6.5 points. This year he hit 60 winners, so 1 per 6.9 points.
Last year Nadal had 24 unforced errors, so he made 1 error every 13.5 points. This year he made 27 unforced errors, so he made an error once every 15.3 points.
So Nadal's rate of winners was slower this year (barely), and his rate of errors was also slower.
Just going by the numbers, then, Federer was more aggressive this year, while Nadal was slightly more conservative – or consistent if you prefer.
NET STATS
Statistically I would not have expected Nadal’s rate of winners this year to be lower, because Federer was presenting more of a target at net.
Last year Fed won 30 of 51 approaches (59%), Nadal 18 of 26.
This year Fed won 42 of 75 approaches (56%), Nadal 22 of 31.
Nadal had more total approaches this year than last year, and the difference is just about what you would expect from the longer match. But the length of this year’s match does not explain the uptick in Federer’s approaches. If he kept his approach rate from last year, you’d expect him to have about 65 approaches this year – but he made 75.
If he was going to the net more aggressively this year, that would at least partly explain his higher rate of winners.
BREAK POINTS
Last year Nadal won 4 of 11 break points, Fed 3 of 8.
This year Nadal won 4 of 13 break points, Fed 1 of 13.
The numbers could suggest that Federer played a better match last year -- particularly if you don't give Nadal sufficient credit for saving the break points this year; I'm inclined to give him the credit.
And if you divide the break point chances by set, the numbers actually favor Federer in the last half of the match.
Federer's break point chances by set:
0-3
1-3
0-6
0-0
0-1 (his sole chance in the fifth was at 3-4)
Nadal's break point chances by set:
1-1
2-3
0-3
0-0
1-6 (Nadal had two chances at 5-all and four at 7-all)
I didn't think Federer was fired up until the third set. He was 1 for 12 on break points by the time they got to 3-all in that set (he had just failed to convert 4 break points in Nadal's last service game). Nadal pinned him at love-40 in the next game but couldn't convert, leaving Rafa at 3 for 7 in break point opportunities. Each player then held once before the rain delay, and Federer came back a better player.
In sum, after that rain delay Federer was 0 for 1 in break point chances, Nadal 1 for 6.
Break points are also not the only measure of key points. Conversion of match points is another measure, and in that stat Nadal needed 4 before he could convert.
Play in tiebreaks is another measure, and Federer took both tiebreaks (with 4 aces in the first one, out of only 6 points that he served).
It's true that Federer can be faulted in the first two and half sets for not converting more break points (and for failing to consolidate his only break). On the other hand, Nadal double-faulted at 5-2 in the fourth-set tiebreak and got tight on the backhand on the next point. And by my own judgment Nadal made two unforced errors when he had Federer at love-40 in the third set.
So in terms of playing well on important points, both players had their problems in '08 -- though not many after the first rain delay. In that last half of the match it was Nadal, arguably, who had the most serious trouble on important points: the 5-2 points in the tiebreak on his serve, break points in the fifth, match points. But Nadal also came through with the only break of serve, which is why he won.
In terms of playing well overall for five sets, the numbers suggest that they played more aggressively this year (with payoff), than last year.
SERVICE PERCENTAGES
Nadal's percentage went up by two points in 2008, to 73. He served more aces (6 to 1) and by common agreement has improved his serve.
Federer's percentage went down 5 points, to 66%. He served 25 aces compared to 24 last year, not a big improvement considering this year’s match was so much longer.
If you're talking about break points it might be a different story, although even so there's a twist.
A few posters have pointed to Federer's 52 unforced errors in this year's final, but he also had 89 winners. In both categories he has higher numbers than last year, partly because this year's final was longer -- and partly because he was being more aggressive.
WINNERS AND ERRORS
Out of 323 points in last year's final, Federer made 65 winners, a rate of almost exactly 1 winner every 5 points.
Out of 413 points in this year's match, Federer made 89 winners, a rate of 1 every 4.6 points.
Last year he made 34 unforced errors, just slightly more than 1 every 10 points. This year he made 52 unforced errors, a rate of almost exactly 1 per 8 points.
So he was hitting winners at a faster rate in 2008, and also making errors at a faster rate.
Federer's differential this year was +35, and last year it was only +31, but that stat by itself doesn't mean that this year he played better. All the numbers were larger this year because more points were played, so the differential is expected to be larger.
Nadal's differential this year was 33, only 26 last year, but again that doesn't mean he played better. It doesn't even mean he hit winners more aggressively.
Last year Nadal had 50 winners. He was hitting them at a rate of 1 per 6.5 points. This year he hit 60 winners, so 1 per 6.9 points.
Last year Nadal had 24 unforced errors, so he made 1 error every 13.5 points. This year he made 27 unforced errors, so he made an error once every 15.3 points.
So Nadal's rate of winners was slower this year (barely), and his rate of errors was also slower.
Just going by the numbers, then, Federer was more aggressive this year, while Nadal was slightly more conservative – or consistent if you prefer.
NET STATS
Statistically I would not have expected Nadal’s rate of winners this year to be lower, because Federer was presenting more of a target at net.
Last year Fed won 30 of 51 approaches (59%), Nadal 18 of 26.
This year Fed won 42 of 75 approaches (56%), Nadal 22 of 31.
Nadal had more total approaches this year than last year, and the difference is just about what you would expect from the longer match. But the length of this year’s match does not explain the uptick in Federer’s approaches. If he kept his approach rate from last year, you’d expect him to have about 65 approaches this year – but he made 75.
If he was going to the net more aggressively this year, that would at least partly explain his higher rate of winners.
BREAK POINTS
Last year Nadal won 4 of 11 break points, Fed 3 of 8.
This year Nadal won 4 of 13 break points, Fed 1 of 13.
The numbers could suggest that Federer played a better match last year -- particularly if you don't give Nadal sufficient credit for saving the break points this year; I'm inclined to give him the credit.
And if you divide the break point chances by set, the numbers actually favor Federer in the last half of the match.
Federer's break point chances by set:
0-3
1-3
0-6
0-0
0-1 (his sole chance in the fifth was at 3-4)
Nadal's break point chances by set:
1-1
2-3
0-3
0-0
1-6 (Nadal had two chances at 5-all and four at 7-all)
I didn't think Federer was fired up until the third set. He was 1 for 12 on break points by the time they got to 3-all in that set (he had just failed to convert 4 break points in Nadal's last service game). Nadal pinned him at love-40 in the next game but couldn't convert, leaving Rafa at 3 for 7 in break point opportunities. Each player then held once before the rain delay, and Federer came back a better player.
In sum, after that rain delay Federer was 0 for 1 in break point chances, Nadal 1 for 6.
Break points are also not the only measure of key points. Conversion of match points is another measure, and in that stat Nadal needed 4 before he could convert.
Play in tiebreaks is another measure, and Federer took both tiebreaks (with 4 aces in the first one, out of only 6 points that he served).
It's true that Federer can be faulted in the first two and half sets for not converting more break points (and for failing to consolidate his only break). On the other hand, Nadal double-faulted at 5-2 in the fourth-set tiebreak and got tight on the backhand on the next point. And by my own judgment Nadal made two unforced errors when he had Federer at love-40 in the third set.
So in terms of playing well on important points, both players had their problems in '08 -- though not many after the first rain delay. In that last half of the match it was Nadal, arguably, who had the most serious trouble on important points: the 5-2 points in the tiebreak on his serve, break points in the fifth, match points. But Nadal also came through with the only break of serve, which is why he won.
In terms of playing well overall for five sets, the numbers suggest that they played more aggressively this year (with payoff), than last year.
SERVICE PERCENTAGES
Nadal's percentage went up by two points in 2008, to 73. He served more aces (6 to 1) and by common agreement has improved his serve.
Federer's percentage went down 5 points, to 66%. He served 25 aces compared to 24 last year, not a big improvement considering this year’s match was so much longer.
