Nadal - Federer H2H clay skewness... numbers

Is Nadal-Federer h2h surface distribution clay skewed?

  • Yes

  • No

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beard

beard

Legend
I already did same thread for Nadal-Djokovic H2H:


Let's see what numbers say in Nadal-Federer case... I will go with big titles only (slams, wtf and masters)...

Slams...
Slams distribution on tour is 2 hard court slams (50%), 1 grass slam (25%) and one clay slam (25%)...
H2H at slams is 10:4 for Nadal with this distribution:
- Hard 4 matches or 28.57% (should be 50%)
- Clay 6 matches or 42.86% (should be 25%)
- Grass 4 matches or 28.57% (should be 25%)... Well, well, well... They played enough on grass...
Obviously they played much more on clay, and much less on hard, if we compare to tour structure...
If we say they played the proper number of matches at RG (6), they should play 1 more match at Wimbledon (to get to same number because distribution is the same - 25%), and should play 8 more hard court slam matches (to get 12 matches - 2*6, because distribution is double - 50%)
So, to get realistic H2H, according to tour surface composition, Nadal and Federer overall should play 9 non clay slam matches to even slam surface distribution....

WTF...
This tournament is once a year, so Nadal and Federer should play same number of matches as they played at Rolland Garros, but they played 5 matches.
So, they need to play 1 more hard court match to even distribution...

Masters...
Masters distribution on tour is 6 hard court masters (67%) and 3 clay masters (33%)...
H2H at masters is 12:7 for Nadal with this distribution:
- Hard 9 matches or 47.37% (should be 67%)
- Clay 10 matches or 52.63% (should be 33%)... Yes they played more clay masters, although there is double more hard court matches... I know... I know...
If we say they played the proper number of matches at clay (10), they should play 11 more hard court masters matches (to get 20 matches - 2*10).
So, to get realistic H2H, according to tour surface composition, Nadal and Federer should play 11 hard court matches to even masters surface distribution....



TOTAL NUMBERS:
9 non clay slams matches + 1 WTF hard court matches + 11 Masters hard court matches
That's totally 21 more non clay matches to even H2H according to ATP calendar surface distribution...


H2H between Nadal and Federer is not as skewed as in Nadal-Djokovic case, but is obviously is hugely skewed...
Please, if you see some mistakes in numbers let me know. I did some minor mistakes in previous thread, but made it right in a meantime...
 
Nadal not good enough to get to Federer at the USO when Fed was great there, Fed not good enough to get to Nadal at the USO when Nadal was great there. Australian open H2H 3-1 Nadal :D

Zas+on+Devine+photos+by+Sean+Rayford++59602.jpg
 
Grass and indoor hard courts: Federer dominated.
Clay and outdoor hard courts: Nadal dominated.

Unfortunately for Federer, grass and indoor hard courts have very very few tournaments. He wasn't in control outside of grass and indoor hard courts. Nadal dominated the majority of their hard court and clay matches.

Federer finally did find some answers and dominated the hard court meetings in 2017. Even his hardcore fans didn't see that coming.
 
MichaelNadal said:
Nadal not good enough to get to Federer at the USO when Fed was great there, Fed not good enough to get to Nadal at the USO when Nadal was great there. Australian open H2H 3-1 Nadal :D

Zas+on+Devine+photos+by+Sean+Rayford++59602.jpg
Click to expand...
Fed was good enough in 2013 but he chose to lose to Robredo instead of Rafa
 
Fed really needed a HC slam encounter before the mental daemons installed for good once with the loss at the 2008 Wimbledon, preferably at the USO.
It is how it is though and at the end of the day, some of their matches were of an absurd quality and to be remembered for many more years to come :)
 
ForehandRF said:
Neah, the way Nadal played and especially served in that 2011 F would have made him vulnerable.Don't forget that Fed pushed him really hard even at the FO that year.
2010 on the other hand, it's good that Fed failed to reach the final lol
Click to expand...

True but after 5 sets with Novak, I don't see Fed beating Nadal outdoors in a BO5, it's something he wouldn't do till 6 years later, had he been able to beat Novak in straights id agree.
 
beard said:
I already did same thread for Nadal-Djokovic H2H:


Let's see what numbers say in Nadal-Federer case... I will go with big titles only (slams, wtf and masters)...

Slams...
Slams distribution on tour is 2 hard court slams (50%), 1 grass slam (25%) and one clay slam (25%)...
H2H at slams is 10:4 for Nadal with this distribution:
- Hard 4 matches or 28.57% (should be 50%)
- Clay 6 matches or 42.86% (should be 25%)
- Grass 4 matches or 28.57% (should be 25%)... Well, well, well... They played enough on grass...
Obviously they played much more on clay, and much less on hard, if we compare to tour structure...
If we say they played the proper number of matches at RG (6), they should play 1 more match at Wimbledon (to get to same number because distribution is the same - 25%), and should play 8 more hard court slam matches (to get 12 matches - 2*6, because distribution is double - 50%)
So, to get realistic H2H, according to tour surface composition, Nadal and Federer overall should play 9 non clay slam matches to even slam surface distribution....

WTF...
This tournament is once a year, so Nadal and Federer should play same number of matches as they played at Rolland Garros, but they played 5 matches.
So, they need to play 1 more hard court match to even distribution...

Masters...
Masters distribution on tour is 6 hard court masters (67%) and 3 clay masters (33%)...
H2H at masters is 12:7 for Nadal with this distribution:
- Hard 9 matches or 47.37% (should be 67%)
- Clay 10 matches or 52.63% (should be 33%)... Yes they played more clay masters, although there is double more hard court matches... I know... I know...
If we say they played the proper number of matches at clay (10), they should play 11 more hard court masters matches (to get 20 matches - 2*10).
So, to get realistic H2H, according to tour surface composition, Nadal and Federer should play 11 hard court matches to even masters surface distribution....



TOTAL NUMBERS:
9 non clay slams matches + 1 WTF hard court matches + 11 Masters hard court matches
That's totally 21 more non clay matches to even H2H according to ATP calendar surface distribution...


H2H between Nadal and Federer is not as skewed as in Nadal-Djokovic case, but is obviously is hugely skewed...
Please, if you see some mistakes in numbers let me know. I did some minor mistakes in previous thread, but made it right in a meantime...
Click to expand...

LOL - Another one? OP you should make a new thread that encompasses it all - Nadal and the clay skew and have it with all the players against Rafs and the clay skew. :) (y)
 
MichaelNadal said:
There we go! Take the mask off :D

3073e-1506458533-800.jpg
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What mask is that?

Hasn't the OP made more than one thread talking about the clay skew? Let me see, you are triggered by what he is posting, considering how much you are posting in his threads. The point is, why make multiple threads for each player, just make the one, and that is the mask coming off. Yeah right.
 
Hitman said:
What mask is that?

Hasn't the OP made more than one thread talking about the clay skew? Let me see, you are triggered by what he is posting, considering how much you are posting in his threads. The point is, why make multiple threads for each player, just make the one, and that is the mask coming off. Yeah right.
Click to expand...

I can hear it through your posts, give me more :D 2 more hrs at work fam, im getting paid to post gifs, real triggered! 8-B and yes, that mask ;)

65E7684C51AFEBBCB7A0327E367FB5BD9C80F3EA
 
Hitman said:
LOL - Another one? OP you should make a new thread that encompasses it all - Nadal and the clay skew and have it with all the players against Rafs and the clay skew. :) (y)
Click to expand...
Is something wrong in making threads that stand on facts?
Now, everyone can look at real numbers and conclude what ever he/she wants...
And no, I won't make thread about Nadal overall resume, which is as we all know hugely clay skewed... For now... :p
 
MichaelNadal said:
I can hear it through your posts, give me more :D 2 more hrs at work fam, im getting paid to post gifs, real triggered! 8-B

65E7684C51AFEBBCB7A0327E367FB5BD9C80F3EA
Click to expand...

You're default when you see a thread that triggers you is that you post frequently in it, keep repeating the same mantra in the thread of how it doesn't matter, don't actually posts about the topic, but rather post about the posters, basically showing just how annoyed you are with the subject. A nice case of show and tell, and your gifs reveal it all to well.
Quick to judge others here, but when it comes back on you, - then it's the Y'all take this too seriously stuff. ;)
 
beard said:
Is something wrong in making threads that stand on facts?
Now, everyone can look at real numbers and conclude what ever he/she wants...
And no, I won't make thread about Nadal overall resume, which is as we all know hugely clay skewed... For now... :p
Click to expand...

Just sayin' ;)
 
Hitman said:
You're default when you see a thread that triggers you is that you post frequently in it, keep repeating the same mantra in the thread of how it doesn't matter, don't actually posts about the topic, but rather post about the posters, basically showing just how annoyed you are with the subject. A nice case of show and tell, and your gifs reveal it all to well.
Quick to judge others here, but when it comes back on you, - then it's the Y'all take this too seriously stuff. ;)
Click to expand...

It's ok to be biased broooo, relax :cool: I know how seriously you take it when that mask slips :p It's just TTW bro ;)
 
MichaelNadal said:
It's ok to be biased broooo, relax :cool: I know how seriously you take it when that mask slips :p It's just TTW bro ;)
Click to expand...

Exactly bro. Your default when you are triggered because you know you can't actually hang in a real tennis debate, is go after the poster.

Hey, relax bros, it's TTW, if the thread is giving too much heat, plenty of other threads to go be epic in. ;) (y)
 
Hitman said:
Exactly bro. Your default when you are triggered because you know you can't actually hang in a real tennis debate, is go after the poster.

Hey, relax bros, it's TTW, if the thread is giving too much heat, plenty of other threads to go be epic in. ;) (y)
Click to expand...

Lol you'd pay for me to be "triggered" over an Ultronian opinion :cool: it's not too late to get your Wrestlemania ticket, I got a couple extra masks :p

She-CANT-TAKE-OFF.gif

shawn-bret-696x392.jpg
 
MichaelNadal said:
Lol you'd pay for me to be "triggered" over an Ultronian opinion :cool: it's not too late to get your Wrestlemania ticket, I got a couple extra masks :p

She-CANT-TAKE-OFF.gif
Click to expand...

Pay? LOL

You play the classic game of show and tell when something gets under your skin, and this clay skew thing from your posting did just that, and having watched you post here more than most, I know your pattern very well. You go after posters instead of the actual topic, like you did with me here, make judgements really quick, yet when the mirror is shown to you, then it is the all - Y'all take this too seriously, I am too busy being epic....yet here you are in a thread that bothers you going after other posters.

Dude, I already told you that I think Nadal is the greater player, and the H2H is what it is, but you get unhinged so quick by some of these threads, you can't help yourself. Anyways, I got my point across, stay epic my friend. :)
 
ForehandRF said:
Fed really needed a HC slam encounter before the mental daemons installed for good once with the loss at the 2008 Wimbledon, preferably at the USO.
It is how it is though and at the end of the day, some of their matches were of an absurd quality and to be remembered for many more years to come :)
Click to expand...

Very true. Even though Nadal usually won majority of their encounters, very few of them were easy for him. Just a little bit more from Fed and a little less from Nadal and the results could have been very different. Like in 2017.
 
Hitman said:
Pay? LOL

Having watched you post here more than most, I know your pattern very well. You go after posters instead of the actual topic, like you did with me here, make judgements
Click to expand...

Likewise my friend, which is why I know when the mask slips :p And sure, one of us is being pretty personal, keep it off, I like the real Hitman, I got excited when I saw him :D
 
MichaelNadal said:
Likewise my friend, which is why I know when the mask slips :p And sure, one of us is being pretty personal, keep it off, I like the real Hitman, I got excited when I saw him :D
Click to expand...

Nah, it was just to show you that you if you want, have a real tennis discussion if you can, if all you can do is make personal attacks, then you are not epic, just boring. And I know you are much better than that. I am bored of personal jabs, either talk tennis, or take it somewhere else. :) (y)
 
Backspin1183 said:
@Hitman and @MichaelNadal

1490336900_crowd-popcorn.gif
Click to expand...

We used to do it all the time :D I haden't seen him maskless in a while, look how he erupted when I said keep it off :-D

Hitman said:
Nah, it was just to show you that you if you want, have a real tennis discussion if you can, if all you can do is make personal attacks, then you are not epic, just boring. And I know you are much better than that. I am bored of personal jabs, either talk tennis, or take it somewhere else. :) (y)
Click to expand...

No one is "attacking" you bro relax, as I said it's ok to be biased :p in any case I agree we have derailed long enough ;) until next time Bret
 
Semantics/terminology plays a great role in analyzing any sport. Skew seems a derogatory word, the appropriate term should be DOMINANCE

Rafa's numbers denote his undisputed, unparalleled SUPERIORITY against fellow ATGs and the field in a specific context and it should be celebrated, not denigrated.

RAFA is the KING. EMPEROR, GOD of clay.

And with just one surface he has the overall numbers in slams, masters too. What's not to like?
 
JustMy2Cents said:
Semantics/terminology plays a great role in analyzing any sport. Skew seems a derogatory word, the appropriate term should be DOMINANCE

Rafa's numbers denote his undisputed, unparalleled SUPERIORITY against fellow ATGs and the field in a specific context and it should be celebrated, not denigrated.

RAFA is the KING. EMPEROR, GOD of clay.

And with just one surface he has the overall numbers in slams, masters too. What's not to like?
Click to expand...

What a beautiful post bro :)

NoleIsBoat said:
What film is that?
Click to expand...

I think it might be based on a Goosebumps book lol.

The_Haunted_Mask.jpg


Those books were huge when I was a kid lol, scary at the time too
 
MichaelNadal said:
We used to do it all the time :D I haden't seen him maskless in a while, look how he erupted when I said keep it off :-D



No one is "attacking" you bro relax, as I said it's ok to be biased :p in any case I agree we have derailed long enough ;) until next time Bret
Click to expand...

No dude, it seems any time someone says something that triggers you, you start throwing shade on them, taking personal jabs...Not cool bro. Attack the argument. I have done a better job defending Nadal here than you and a majority of Nadal fans over the years, and everyone knows that. The post I made to @beard was I am seeing multiple threads about the same thing, why not just make one big one if he wants to discuss it....but, you saw red, that means I want everyone to gather in on an attack on Nadal.

Dude, after a while it really does get boring, seriously. Happy to actually discuss tennis with you anytime, but you cannot control your frustration and all this mask stuff and other personal jabs start coming in, it just bores me, I've been here too long and too tired to deal with that now when I know it is coming from a unhinged place. I have always said I am biased towards Djokovic, but have always respected his rivals, so get off on the whole Hitman tries to be objective around here....No, I try to be respectful, there is a difference.

:) (y) Anyways, Shawn, laters.
 
Hitman said:
No dude, it seems any time someone says something that triggers you, you start throwing shade on them, taking personal jabs...Not cool bro. Attack the argument. I have done a better job defending Nadal here than you and a majority of Nadal fans over the years, and everyone knows that. The post I made to @beard was I am seeing multiple threads about the same thing, why not just make one big one if he wants to discuss it....but, you saw red, that means I want everyone to gather in on an attack on Nadal.

Dude, after a while it really does get boring, seriously. Happy to actually discuss tennis with you anytime, but you cannot control your frustration and all this mask stuff and other personal jabs start coming in, it just bores me, I've been here too long and too tired to deal with that now when I know it is coming from a unhinged place. I have always said I am biased towards Djokovic, but have always respected his rivals, so get off on the whole Hitman tries to be objective around here....No, I try to be respectful, there is a difference.

:) (y) Anyways, Shawn, laters.
Click to expand...

:-D with the mask on you get halfway there maybe :p enjoy your day lol
 
Last edited:
MichaelNadal said:
:-D with the mask on you get halfway there maybe :p enjoy your day lol
Click to expand...

Yawn....You think saying stuff like Y'all know Nadal is epic is actually a better defense argument. Maybe when you are 12. ;) :-D Go learn some tennis history and come back and try again. Even I can posts gif, but I hold my own in actual tennis debates.:p

I am enjoying my day, going to watch Smackdown from Friday. Peace out.
 
Backspin1183 said:
It's the first time for me to witness this between you and Hitman. Usually he's too cool to have a go at anyone. :p
Click to expand...

Bingo! ;) and that's where we will leave it lol.

NoleIsBoat said:
I remember reading those all the time growing up! Yeah the book seems familiar now

definitely some creepy ones too, especially as a kid.
Click to expand...

Where are you from? They were HUGE then man lol. Some of them were a bit corny but the good ones were amazing for sure. Never got into the show though. I miss reading, as an adult it's hard to find time :(
 
MichaelNadal said:
Bingo! ;) and that's where we will leave it lol.



Where are you from? They were HUGE then man lol. Some of them were a bit corny but the good ones were amazing for sure. Never got into the show though. I miss reading, as an adult it's hard to find time :(
Click to expand...
U.K. bro. Read them throughout my teenage years.

Yeah I’m the same! Phones and social media don’t help for sure, I have a couple of books I want to read but I don’t give myself the time/or have it.
 
Hitman said:
No dude, it seems any time someone says something that triggers you, you start throwing shade on them, taking personal jabs...Not cool bro. Attack the argument. I have done a better job defending Nadal here than you and a majority of Nadal fans over the years, and everyone knows that. The post I made to @beard was I am seeing multiple threads about the same thing, why not just make one big one if he wants to discuss it....but, you saw red, that means I want everyone to gather in on an attack on Nadal.

Dude, after a while it really does get boring, seriously. Happy to actually discuss tennis with you anytime, but you cannot control your frustration and all this mask stuff and other personal jabs start coming in, it just bores me, I've been here too long and too tired to deal with that now when I know it is coming from a unhinged place. I have always said I am biased towards Djokovic, but have always respected his rivals, so get off on the whole Hitman tries to be objective around here....No, I try to be respectful, there is a difference.

:) (y) Anyways, Shawn, laters.
Click to expand...
Bold:
"I am seeing multiple threads about the same thing, why not just make one big one if he wants to discuss it"

Few reasons I made two (if that's multiple at all) threads:
- Big effort was necessary, many numbers involved, easier to separate, to do job in two days
- At first I wasn't sure I will do Federer stats, he's not my favorite
- Its good to separate the two... not the same, although both h2hs are heavily skewed, in Novak case it's really, really huge... I know I could make one post...
- It's hard for members of this forum to read so many facts for one h2h, and for two even more
- Its better to separate Federer and Novak in two different discussions... IMO
 
Hitman said:
No dude, it seems any time someone says something that triggers you, you start throwing shade on them, taking personal jabs...Not cool bro. Attack the argument. I have done a better job defending Nadal here than you and a majority of Nadal fans over the years, and everyone knows that.
Dude, after a while it really does get boring, seriously. Happy to actually discuss tennis with you anytime, but you cannot control your frustration and all this mask stuff and other personal jabs start coming in, it just bores me, I've been here too long and too tired to deal with that now when I know it is coming from a unhinged place. I have always said I am biased towards Djokovic, but have always respected his rivals, so get off on the whole Hitman tries to be objective around here....No, I try to be respectful, there is a difference.

:) (y) Anyways, Shawn, laters.
Click to expand...
Exactly... I told him the same thing multiple times. Everything you wrote is true, but I will bold essence...
 
Backspin1183 said:
It's the first time for me to witness this between you and Hitman. Usually he's too cool to have a go at anyone. :p
Click to expand...

Me and MN are like two bros, we have been like this for a very long time. Sometimes we just got at it.

What annoys me is the narrative that I am meant to be objective, or painting myself out to be objective. I have never in all my years here said I was objective, respectful to other players, yes, but never objective. So when someone tries to use this as an underhanded jab against me, I am going to respond, since I never claimed to be that way.
 
beard said:
Bold:
"I am seeing multiple threads about the same thing, why not just make one big one if he wants to discuss it"

Few reasons I made two (if that's multiple at all) threads:
- Big effort was necessary, many numbers involved, easier to separate, to do job in two days
- At first I wasn't sure I will do Federer stats, he's not my favorite
- Its good to separate the two... not the same, although both h2hs are heavily skewed, in Novak case it's really, really huge... I know I could make one post...
- It's hard for members of this forum to read so many facts for one h2h, and for two even more
- Its better to separate Federer and Novak in two different discussions... IMO
Click to expand...

Fair enough, I asked the question, and you answered. Simple, right?
 
Hitman said:
After a little while you are like - Come on man...
Click to expand...
The thing is that he can be a great poster (he knows tennis) without trying to be so epic and cool.
This is a tennis forum, we all should use tennis arguments as much as possible, and if we don't agree it's ok...
 
Hitman said:
After a little while you are like - Come on man...
Click to expand...

Bro let it go and stop trying to act like im some meanie, I know it's important for you to come out of this looking like you didn't get mad over something silly. If you want to move on let's move on. There's things im not going to stand for either. Idk who argues on here LESS than me. I said something that was supposed to be funny and it went farther than it needed to an hour ago already.

beard said:
The thing is that he can be a great poster (he knows tennis) without trying to be so epic and cool.
This is a tennis forum, we all should use tennis arguments as much as possible, and if we don't agree it's ok...
Click to expand...

I don't have to try ;) Believe it or not I quite like you Beard (y), you're starting to run out with your last couple posts though.
 
beard said:
The thing is that he can be a great poster (he knows tennis) without trying to be so epic and cool.
This is a tennis forum, we all should use tennis arguments as much as possible, and if we don't agree it's ok...
Click to expand...

I know, I like MN a lot, we have a history, it's all about balance. And yes, when we don't agree then that is OK, but starting a convo with shade is just not way. That annoys me.
 
MichaelNadal said:
Bro let it go and stop trying to act like im some meanie, I know it's important for you to come out of this looking like you didn't get mad over something silly. If you want to move on let's move on. There's things im not going to stand for either. Idk who argues on here LESS than me. I said something that was supposed to be funny and it went farther than it needed to an hour ago already.



I don't have to try ;) Believe it or not I quite like you Beard (y), you're starting to run out with your last couple posts though.
Click to expand...
Just be more factual when reply to me, please, and we can have a nice tennis discussion... ;)
 
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