ghostofMecir
Legend
Nadal and Federer have played 7024 points in their 36 matches. Nadal has won 3,560 points (50.7%) and Federer has won 3,464 (49.3%).
One might think that a 23-13 advantage head-to-head would yield a bigger overall lead in total points, buit a few things at play.
1. Federer lost in Dubai 2006, Roma 2006, and the AO 2009 to Nadal even though he won more points overall (+7 in Dubai, +5 in Roma, +1 at the AO). In addition, in Madrid 2010, Nadal won one more total point (85 to 84).
2. Federer has had plenty of routs (at the WTF, this one at IW, Hamburg 2007, etc). His closest win was a +5 win in 2009'Madrid.
Overall, though Nadal has been to win more than lose in this rivalry, the matches in aggregate pit these two rather closely. The difference has been Nadal's ability to rely on a certain rally dynamic to win crucial points (BP down, serve out wide to the AD, control point with FH). If you look at this last match, Nadal was up 0-15, 0-30, 15-30 plenty of times on the Federer serve but was unable to break. In times past, he would have almost surely broken in one of these cases at least, but Federer now has more confidence in crucial situations, just like he did in Australia because he can now win a rally that he could not consistently before. Nadal has had trouble saving break points because Federer is returning that serve out wide on the AD side like he has not before. With that, the mental advantage has eroded and the match dynamics themselves with it.
One might think that a 23-13 advantage head-to-head would yield a bigger overall lead in total points, buit a few things at play.
1. Federer lost in Dubai 2006, Roma 2006, and the AO 2009 to Nadal even though he won more points overall (+7 in Dubai, +5 in Roma, +1 at the AO). In addition, in Madrid 2010, Nadal won one more total point (85 to 84).
2. Federer has had plenty of routs (at the WTF, this one at IW, Hamburg 2007, etc). His closest win was a +5 win in 2009'Madrid.
Overall, though Nadal has been to win more than lose in this rivalry, the matches in aggregate pit these two rather closely. The difference has been Nadal's ability to rely on a certain rally dynamic to win crucial points (BP down, serve out wide to the AD, control point with FH). If you look at this last match, Nadal was up 0-15, 0-30, 15-30 plenty of times on the Federer serve but was unable to break. In times past, he would have almost surely broken in one of these cases at least, but Federer now has more confidence in crucial situations, just like he did in Australia because he can now win a rally that he could not consistently before. Nadal has had trouble saving break points because Federer is returning that serve out wide on the AD side like he has not before. With that, the mental advantage has eroded and the match dynamics themselves with it.
