Nadal finishing year end no. 1?

Is Nadal likely to finish the year as #1?

  • Totally. Fed won't pass the round robin stage.

    Votes: 2 2.4%

  • Not sure. It doesn't depend entirely on him.

    Votes: 30 36.1%

  • No way. Murray, Djokovic, Del Potro, all own him on hardcourts.

    Votes: 51 61.4%
  • Total voters
    83
  • Poll closed .
S

sp00q

Rookie
The situation is as follows: Federer has approximately 1200 points over Nadal, with 200 points coming from the Masters Cup. Nadal could gain up to 1500 points (if he wins all his matches). If Federer wins all his Round Robin matches or gets to the final he will remain #1 regardless of Nadal's result. Basically, Fed needs to score 3 victories. However, if Nadal wins the MC and Federer fails to win at least three matches, the spaniard could end up as #1 this year.

Thoughts?
 
After Monday Federer will lead Nadal by 945 points, actually.

Nadal is competing in London where he can gain 1500 points, but also Nadal is competing in Davis Cup where, only if he wins 2 singles matches, he can gain 50 points.

If Federer scores 3 victories in Round Robin and loses in the semi's he earns 600 points. If Nadal wins London undefeated he earns 1500 points

Seemingly, then, he'd be 45 points behind Federer. That's where Davis Cup comes into play.

Nadal's chances of become #1 at the end of the year are low, but we must remember that Federer didn't make it out of Round Robin last year at the YEC so it's possible again this year. Nadal needs to get 950 more points than Federer from now until the end of the year to be #1.
 
Last edited:
Blinkism said:
After Monday Federer will lead Nadal by 945 points, actually.

Nadal is competing in London where he can gain 1500 points, but also Nadal is competing in Davis Cup where, only if he wins 2 singles matches, he can gain 50 points.

If Federer scores 3 victories in Round Robin and loses in the semi's he earns 600 points. If Nadal wins London undefeated he earns 1500 points

Seemingly, then, he'd be 45 points behind Federer. That's where Davis Cup comes into play.

Nadal's chances of become #1 at the end of the year are low, but we must remember that Federer didn't make it out of Round Robin last year at the YEC so it's possible again this year. Nadal needs to get 950 more points than Federer from now until the end of the year to be #1.
Click to expand...

True, but lets be realistic, the best chance for Nadal is to get an easy group, and for Fed to get the tough guys (Del Potro, Djokovic, Davydenko).

Im still hoping, and knowing Nadal never count him out, but that being said, he had his chances in Shanghai and blew it, and then was not ready to play Djoker in paris
 
clayman2000 said:
True, but lets be realistic, the best chance for Nadal is to get an easy group, and for Fed to get the tough guys (Del Potro, Djokovic, Davydenko).

Im still hoping, and knowing Nadal never count him out, but that being said, he had his chances in Shanghai and blew it, and then was not ready to play Djoker in paris
Click to expand...

Oh, yeah, for sure.

Nadal's chances are very low.

Djokovic overtaking Nadal as #2 is more like, I'd say (Nadal's got a lot of points to defend in Australia and then Indian Wells, Djokovic doesn't).
 
Blinkism said:
After Monday Federer will lead Nadal by 945 points, actually.

Nadal is competing in London where he can gain 1500 points, but also Nadal is competing in Davis Cup where, only if he wins 2 singles matches, he can gain 50 points.

If Federer scores 3 victories in Round Robin and loses in the semi's he earns 600 points. If Nadal wins London undefeated he earns 1500 points

Seemingly, then, he'd be 45 points behind Federer. That's where Davis Cup comes into play.

Nadal's chances of become #1 at the end of the year are low, but we must remember that Federer didn't make it out of Round Robin last year at the YEC so it's possible again this year. Nadal needs to get 950 more points than Federer from now until the end of the year to be #1.
Click to expand...

Thanks for doing the math Blinkism, I was wondering what the exact breakdown of the scenarios was but have been too busy to give it any time.
Things could get very exciting indeed, I really hope Fed can squeak out another year-end #1...
 
Whatever happens, Fed would be the real number one of this year in virtue of winning the double FO-Wimbledon plus making the finals of the two remaining slams.

The ATP system does not always reflect who is best.

There was a year that Agassi finished first but everyone felt Sampras was the real number one.
 
Nadal doesn't deserve to finish number 1 since Fed won 2 slams. Nole doesn't deserve to finish number 2 since Rafa won 1 slam. Slams >>>>> anything else.
 
Blinkism said:
Oh, yeah, for sure.

Nadal's chances are very low.

Djokovic overtaking Nadal as #2 is more like, I'd say (Nadal's got a lot of points to defend in Australia and then Indian Wells, Djokovic doesn't).
Click to expand...

Djokovic is 1150 points behind Rafa.

950 is easier to top than 1150. Especially when you guarantee yourself not having to play Federer in group stages
 
Cyan said:
Nadal doesn't deserve to finish number 1 since Fed won 2 slams. Nole doesn't deserve to finish number 2 since Rafa won 1 slam. Slams >>>>> anything else.
Click to expand...

By your logic then Del Potro should be 3, Roddick should be 4 and Soderling should be 5.

Slams are the most important, but if Rafa could win the WTF then hed deserve no 1. After all

1 slam, 3 Masters, 1 Cup >>> 2 slams, 2 Masters
 
matchmaker said:
Whatever happens, Fed would be the real number one of this year in virtue of winning the double FO-Wimbledon plus making the finals of the two remaining slams.

The ATP system does not always reflect who is best.

There was a year that Agassi finished first but everyone felt Sampras was the real number one.
Click to expand...

Well, Nadal did win a slam this year so it wouldn't be a Safina style situation. And he did begin the year as #1.

It would be unfair, but it would be the lesser of all evils than if, somehow, Djokovic or Murray ended 2009 as #1 without a slam!
 
Well the good thing is that Roger holds it in his own hands whether he will finish the year as No. 1 or not :)

Dont think Rafael will win the Masters anyway...however Novak seems to be on fire at the moment.
 
If Roddick pulls out of the TMC due to his knee injury, Soderling will be in and Soderling will pummel Nadal on hardcourt. He'll pummel Davydenko as well.
 
sp00q said:
The situation is as follows: Federer has approximately 1200 points over Nadal, with 200 points coming from the Masters Cup. Nadal could gain up to 1500 points (if he wins all his matches). If Federer wins all his Round Robin matches or gets to the final he will remain #1 regardless of Nadal's result. Basically, Fed needs to score 3 victories. However, if Nadal wins the MC and Federer fails to win at least three matches, the spaniard could end up as #1 this year.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

I would not be at all surprised to see Federer eliminated in the round robin matches. He's in the group with Djokovic, Davydenko, and Del Potro. Davydenko has been his pigeon but Djkokovic and Del Potro have both had credible wins over Roger this year and they've beaten him recently.

Not sure if Nadal will be able to get to the finals. Indoor courts are his worst surface, but it's possible that he could do it. I'm betting on Djokovic to win though.
 
JoshDragon said:
I would not be at all surprised to see Federer eliminated in the round robin matches. He's in the group with Djokovic, Davydenko, and Del Potro. Davydenko has been his pigeon but Djkokovic and Del Potro have both had credible wins over Roger this year and they've beaten him recently.

Not sure if Nadal will be able to get to the finals. Indoor courts are his worst surface, but it's possible that he could do it. I'm betting on Djokovic to win though.
Click to expand...

This is not decided yet. He could get the group w/ Murray, Roddick (or Roddick's alternate Soderling), and Verdasco. In this case hard for me to see Rog not making the SF.

But the draw remains to be seen until Wednesday. Either way, Nadal is no lock to make the SF either.
 
jamesblakefan#1 said:
This is not decided yet. He could get the group w/ Murray, Roddick (or Roddick's alternate Soderling), and Verdasco. In this case hard for me to see Rog not making the SF.

But the draw remains to be seen until Wednesday. Either way, Nadal is no lock to make the SF either.
Click to expand...

Wait, I'm confused. Aren't the players in the Red group typically the odd numbered seeds and the players in the gold group are the even numbered seeds? So how could Roger be in any group but the red one, he's the number 1 player.:-?
 
JoshDragon said:
Wait, I'm confused. Aren't the players in the Red group typically the odd numbered seeds and the players in the gold group are the even numbered seeds? So how could Roger be in any group but the red one, he's the number 1 player.:-?
Click to expand...

It's always random. Last year the groups were 1-3-5-8/2-4-6-7, so yes it's always random draw, not odds and evens.
 
jamesblakefan#1 said:
It's always random. Last year the groups were 1-3-5-8/2-4-6-7, so yes it's always random draw, not odds and evens.
Click to expand...

Oh, ok. I'm pretty sure that Roger has always been in the red group, ever since I started watching tennis. That's probably why I assumed that it was based on odd and even numbers.

Thanks for explaining.:)
 
I would love to see one group: Nadal Davydenko Djokovic and Del Potro, that would be awesome!
 
lets be logic it depends on federer results so lets say that roger lost in the round robin but with the performance that nadal puts in his recent matches he can't get past his hotel room not even the round robin sorry to be harsh although i am a nadal's fan but the truth must be said
 
sp00q said:
Great breakdown, thanks. But why are the Davis Cup points now considered "Non-Countable Tournaments" in Nadal's rankings? :confused:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Rafael-Nadal.aspx?t=rb
Click to expand...

TMF said:
Thanks for bringing that up. I didn't know they excluded those points from Nadal.
Maybe Davis Cup has nothing to do with atp ranking points afterall. So confusing.
Click to expand...

It's because the Davis Cup points go in the 500 section. Currently, Nadal's 500 section is full- he has more points from Beijing than he does from Davis Cup.

Nadal has 80 points from Davis Cup right now. Davis Cup awards 75 points per singles match won in the final. That would be an additional 150 points for a total of 230 points. So, winning 2 matches in the final would replace the Beijing points and add an additional 50 points to Nadal's total tally while Beijing would go into the "Non-Countable Tournaments" category.

Winning just 1 singles match at the Davis Cup final would not be enough to add anything to his tally, however.

TheMagicianOfPrecision said:
I would love to see one group: Nadal Davydenko Djokovic and Del Potro, that would be awesome!
Click to expand...

hahaha, you'd say that, TMOP!

Del Potro might be injured, however, so I fear any matches with him would be low-quality.

:(

Hope I'm really wrong, though.
 
Last edited:
Blinkism said:
It's because the Davis Cup points go in the 500 section. Currently, Nadal's 500 section is full- he has more points from Beijing than he does from Davis Cup.

Nadal has 80 points from Davis Cup right now. Davis Cup awards 75 points per singles match won in the final. That would be an additional 150 points for a total of 230 points. So, winning 2 matches in the final would replace the Beijing points and add an additional 50 points to Nadal's total tally while Beijing would go into the "Non-Countable Tournaments" category.

Winning just 1 singles match at the Davis Cup final would not be enough to add anything to his tally, however.



hahaha, you'd say that, TMOP!

Del Potro might be injured, however, so I fear any matches with him would be low-quality.

:(

Hope I'm really wrong, though.
Click to expand...

Then let Soderling replace DelPo and we have ourselves a nice group ! :twisted::twisted:
 
Blinkism said:
It's because the Davis Cup points go in the 500 section. Currently, Nadal's 500 section is full- he has more points from Beijing than he does from Davis Cup.

Nadal has 80 points from Davis Cup right now. Davis Cup awards 75 points per singles match won in the final. That would be an additional 150 points for a total of 230 points. So, winning 2 matches in the final would replace the Beijing points and add an additional 50 points to Nadal's total tally while Beijing would go into the "Non-Countable Tournaments" category.

Winning just 1 singles match at the Davis Cup final would not be enough to add anything to his tally, however.
Click to expand...

According to the ATP (http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/Rankings-FAQ.aspx), the best 4 ATP World Tour 500 are added to your ranking.

Since Nadal played only 3 ATP World Tour 500 this year(http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Rafael-Nadal.aspx?t=rb),
1. Barcelona
2. Rotterdam
3. Baijing

Shouldn't DC be added to his race points since it would be consider the 4th tournament ATP World Tour 500?
 
This should clear everything up

TMF said:
According to the ATP (http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/Rankings-FAQ.aspx), the best 4 ATP World Tour 500 are added to your ranking.

Since Nadal played only 3 ATP World Tour 500 this year(http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Rafael-Nadal.aspx?t=rb),
1. Barcelona
2. Rotterdam
3. Baijing

Shouldn't DC be added to his race points since it would be consider the 4th tournament ATP World Tour 500?
Click to expand...

Monte Carlo is counted as one of those 500's this year, although it's placed in the 1000 category on the website. This is because it dropped in status as non-mandatory, as not to penalize people who skip it- they changed it to fit into the 500 slot (although it's placed in the same category on the website as the rest of the Masters to avoid confusion for the fans.)

So Nadal technically has 4 tournaments in his 500 slot.

From ATP website:

Q. What are the requirements and rules for player participation for an ATP World Tour 500 tournament?

A. Top 30 players (based on '08 year-end ranking) must play a minimum of four 500 level tournaments during the calendar year, including at least one event following the US Open (Monte Carlo Masters 1000 event will count towards the minimum of four and all penalties apply):

Q. What are the ranking rules for players who compete in Davis Cup?

A. Davis Cup points will be awarded for the first time in 2009 for World Group and World Group playoff ties only. Points allocated are as part of the 500 point category. Davis Cup does not count towards a player's commitment to the 500 category. The points accumulated in the four ties within the previous 52 weeks can become part of a player's 500 category if:
1. Player has not more than three 500 results within the previous 52 weeks and Davis Cup result(s) is better than lowest best other.
2. Player has four 500 results within the previous 52 weeks and Davis Cup result(s) is better than the lowest 500. Also, 500 0-pointers cannot be replaced.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/Rankings-FAQ.aspx
 
Last edited:
JoshDragon said:
I would not be at all surprised to see Federer eliminated in the round robin matches. He's in the group with Djokovic, Davydenko, and Del Potro. Davydenko has been his pigeon but Djkokovic and Del Potro have both had credible wins over Roger this year and they've beaten him recently.

Not sure if Nadal will be able to get to the finals. Indoor courts are his worst surface, but it's possible that he could do it. I'm betting on Djokovic to win though.
Click to expand...

Del Potro is in crap form now. I will be surprised if he even wins a single match at the Championships if he even shows up to play that is. He wont be beating Federer there though, that is for sure. I dont see any scenario Federer misses the semis. The only two players who might beat him in RR play are Murray and Djokovic, and at most he could only have 1 in his pool.

Nadal on the other hand I see much more risk to not make it as Murray, Djokovic, Davydenko, maybe Del Potro (even with his awful form given the matchup), and if he gets in as an alternate Soderling, all have a shot to beat Nadal.
 
I think he has a chance, because I don't think Federer will win the tournament. On the other hand, it's even less likely that Rafa wins it, and Federer is 900 points ahead.
 
sp00q said:
The situation is as follows: Federer has approximately 1200 points over Nadal, with 200 points coming from the Masters Cup. Nadal could gain up to 1500 points (if he wins all his matches). If Federer wins all his Round Robin matches or gets to the final he will remain #1 regardless of Nadal's result. Basically, Fed needs to score 3 victories. However, if Nadal wins the MC and Federer fails to win at least three matches, the spaniard could end up as #1 this year.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

I thought you wrote Nadal finish year end #1 no? LOL
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

M
How is it possible for Federer to finish 2014 as Year End #1
Replies
17
Views
1K
torpantennis
T
T
Year end number 1
Replies
29
Views
4K
timnz
T
T
Nadal secures the number 1 year end ranking with a win Saturday?
Replies
4
Views
988
McLovin
McLovin
akv89
Federer can become year-end #1 in Basel
Replies
0
Views
686
akv89
akv89
S
can nadal end year 2009 no 1
2
Replies
55
Views
7K
vulcan
V
Back
Top