Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
To compare, Federer has beat the #1 or #2 (when he was number 1), in 4 of his 17 victories. All at Wimbledon, Roddick, Hewitt, and Nadal twice.
Nadal has done this in 9 of his 13 wins. And at least once at each slam.
I think you had it right the first time. It's 5 because he beat Novak at Wimbledon in 2012.
Anyways, it's an impressive stat from Nadal, to be sure, but it has to be said, all this shows is basically a top heavy era where upsets are uncommon. Look at AO 2014. Wawrinka upsets Djokovic so technically Nadal does not get the opportunity to beat the #2 player when he's #1. So his conversion rate for a stat like this would've gone down even if he had won the AO. That's how flawed this statistic is.
Plus, Nadal did not give Federer the opportunity to improve this stat because he wasn't making AO and USO finals when he was #2. The rankings said Nadal was #2 on clay, but he wasn't really. The 2005 and 2006 RG titles are impressive to me, but every RG after that? Not really, in terms of this stat IMO. And again, at least Federer gave Nadal that opportunity. He wouldn't get it if all Federer ever done was lose in SF's and QF's at RG for example. 2008 Wimbledon was also impressive. Maybe 2012 RG, but that's debatable.
So that's 3 slams out of 9 that I would deem "impressive." Nadal was the favourite in the other 6 he won while not ranked #1 anyway. The other 3, Nadal won when he was ranked #1 (given that we're excluding 2010 RG).
In fairness, Federer was also a big favourite I would say against Hewitt(#2) at USO 2004 and Roddick at Wimbledon 2005. So that makes Federer's total 3 out of 15 slams where he either beat the #2 when he was number #1, or #1 and wasn't a huge favourite at the time
Safin took out #1 Roddick at AO 2004. Safin is pretty good I would say. Every other slam, Federer won while being ranked #1 except for the 2008 USO, 2009 RG and 2009 Wimbledon, and as others have stated, it's kind of hard to beat the #1 when you are the #1.
In any case, it is hard to deny that surface homogenization has not played a role. Yes the surfaces are still different, but what surface homogenization has done is make the guys that would be threats on faster surfaces like Tsonga, Berdych, and even JMDP almost null. Of course, Federer has benefited from this also in that sense, but not as much. That was why I mentioned a guy like Safin at AO 2004. Because back then the surfaces were not nearly as homogenized as today. Of course, the amount of logic you take from this kind of depends upon whether or not you subscribe to the "weak era" theory as most Nadal fans do, but that is subjective. The fact that all the surfaces have slowed down is not.
For example, I do not think it's a coincidence that 2 guys have completed the career slam in recent years (with perhaps a 3rd to follow) when it was only done 4 times in history before that. Federer and Nadal are greater than your average players obviously, but there have been plenty of great players who didn't complete the CGS. Borg, Lendl, Connors, McEnroe to name a few, and by today's standards, none besides Connors would have completed it anyway because they didn't win the AO mostly because they didn't care about it in the first place.
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