ghostofMecir
Legend
Beyond what anybody would ever think would happen, Nadal has been much better on hard than he has been on clay this season.
Dominance ratio on hard courts: 1.48 [career, 1.24]
Dominance rario on clay courts: 1.24 [career, 1.39]
2019 Hard court serve points won: 72.1%; hard court return points won: 41.2% [career—67.4% and 40.5%]
2019 Clay court serve points won: 64.2%; clay court return points won: 44.5% [career—66.3% and 46.8%]
Nadal hasn’t been outplayed on hard courts by anybody this year other than Djokovic who dismantled him, but everyone else was dismantled and/or outplayed by Nadal on hard courts. Yes, he “lost”to Kyrgios, but in that match, Nadal’s DR was 1.36 as he won a higher percentage of return points and serve points and was never broken.
Watching him play, I see a few things here.
1) His clay FH hasn’t gotten the usual depth or “jump” CC to the righty BH. Against Tsitsipas, he couldn’t get the ball up high enough on the BH to bother him. Yes, Tsitsipas is tall so it’s harder to get up on him, but Nadal’s CC FH absolutely destroyed Tsitsipas at the AO. Tsitsipas couldn’t do anything in those rallies in Australia but was not fazed in Madrid. Nadal’s clay FH has gotten better and better this clay season, though, and may get back to what it was
Yes, Stefanos showed a resolve and determination he did not show in Australia, but a lot of that has to do with the confidence he gained from not seeing a steamroller on the other side of the net. As for Tsitsipas improving, yes, he’s made some improvement, but nobody improves that much in such a short amount of time. His serve, the one thing that if it approves commensurate with his height would take him to new heights, is still the same.
2) Movement to the FH continues to deteriorate with age and opponents are continuing to open up the court by attacking it. Novak started the trend and others have seen its effect. Federer in his last 5 wins vs. Nadal has attacked his FH more than ever and I’m sure part of that is his team showing him the data Novak’s team was using that suggested to Novak to attack the Nadal FH. One of Federer’s biggest mistakes in his earlier matches vs, Nadal was not going after the FH more gen when it was a lot better. He always chose to try and break down the Nadal BH leaving open court opportunities.
3) Nadal on hard is able to play aggressively as he’s standing closer to the baseline. Did anybody else see the Agassi-Fognini like half-volley BHs he hit vs. Tsitsipas? They were beautiful shots, but that's not what Nadal does best.
His serve that he modified slightly was deadly effective on hard courts. People forget how effective it was because of how Djokovic dismantled him, but Nadal was broken only 5 times in 12 matches on hard (excluding match with Djokovic). This serve advantage is gone on clay.
Dominance ratio on hard courts: 1.48 [career, 1.24]
Dominance rario on clay courts: 1.24 [career, 1.39]
2019 Hard court serve points won: 72.1%; hard court return points won: 41.2% [career—67.4% and 40.5%]
2019 Clay court serve points won: 64.2%; clay court return points won: 44.5% [career—66.3% and 46.8%]
Nadal hasn’t been outplayed on hard courts by anybody this year other than Djokovic who dismantled him, but everyone else was dismantled and/or outplayed by Nadal on hard courts. Yes, he “lost”to Kyrgios, but in that match, Nadal’s DR was 1.36 as he won a higher percentage of return points and serve points and was never broken.
Watching him play, I see a few things here.
1) His clay FH hasn’t gotten the usual depth or “jump” CC to the righty BH. Against Tsitsipas, he couldn’t get the ball up high enough on the BH to bother him. Yes, Tsitsipas is tall so it’s harder to get up on him, but Nadal’s CC FH absolutely destroyed Tsitsipas at the AO. Tsitsipas couldn’t do anything in those rallies in Australia but was not fazed in Madrid. Nadal’s clay FH has gotten better and better this clay season, though, and may get back to what it was
Yes, Stefanos showed a resolve and determination he did not show in Australia, but a lot of that has to do with the confidence he gained from not seeing a steamroller on the other side of the net. As for Tsitsipas improving, yes, he’s made some improvement, but nobody improves that much in such a short amount of time. His serve, the one thing that if it approves commensurate with his height would take him to new heights, is still the same.
2) Movement to the FH continues to deteriorate with age and opponents are continuing to open up the court by attacking it. Novak started the trend and others have seen its effect. Federer in his last 5 wins vs. Nadal has attacked his FH more than ever and I’m sure part of that is his team showing him the data Novak’s team was using that suggested to Novak to attack the Nadal FH. One of Federer’s biggest mistakes in his earlier matches vs, Nadal was not going after the FH more gen when it was a lot better. He always chose to try and break down the Nadal BH leaving open court opportunities.
3) Nadal on hard is able to play aggressively as he’s standing closer to the baseline. Did anybody else see the Agassi-Fognini like half-volley BHs he hit vs. Tsitsipas? They were beautiful shots, but that's not what Nadal does best.
His serve that he modified slightly was deadly effective on hard courts. People forget how effective it was because of how Djokovic dismantled him, but Nadal was broken only 5 times in 12 matches on hard (excluding match with Djokovic). This serve advantage is gone on clay.