Nadal has been net UNLUCKY in non-clay slams in his career, not lucky

jl809

Semi-Pro
Primedal is generally agreed to have been from 2008-2014.

In this time...
On grass:
  • He didn’t even play at Wimbledon ‘09 through injury, missing the opportunity to play a weaker Federer or Roddick/Murray. He won the 2 Wimbledons either side of this in 2008 and 2010.
  • During his 2012 match against a zoning ballbasher Rosol who couldn’t miss, he sustained an injury to the extent that he was immediately out for the next 8 months
He missed 3 hard court slams altogether:
  • 2012 US Open, in which Djokovic was at a far lower level than in 2011 and Federer didn’t even make the final. Nadal reached the 3 other US finals in this period (2010-13)
  • 2013 Aussie Open. Nadal reached the final of the Aussie Opens in 2012 and 2014, won Indian Wells as soon as he returned to hard court in 2013, and beat Djokovic in their outdoor HC matches in 2013
  • 2014 US Open which was Upset Open; neither Federer or Djokovic reached the final
He sustained injury at 3 hard court slams:
  • Retired against Murray at the Aussie Open in 2010. Nadal was defending his title and comfortably won the other HC slam in 2010.
  • Lost a match with a hamstring injury (imo one of the rarest and unluckiest injuries in tennis) vs his then-pigeon Ferrer at the 2011 AO. Peakovic would have been a huge challenge but Nadal had won the previous HC slam match vs Djokovic comfortably and before the mental block set in during the clay season, he ran Djokovic close in their next HC matches despite serving at 41% at IW (plus Primedal was always better at Bo5 than Bo3 on hard court)
  • Lost the 2014 AO final, where he got a back injury in the warmup against a guy he’d never lost a set to on HC before (and who he is 19-3 against with the other Ls coming in 2015)
That’s 8 injury-affected slams off-clay in his prime years. Nadal was finalling or winning the majority of the other non-clay slams in this period. No other ATG has had anything close to this injury record in their prime (Djokovic and Federer missed 0 non clay slams with injury in their primes).

Nadal benefitting from 3 nice HC slam draws since 2017 (when in the same period, Federer has benefitted from 2, '17W and '18AO, and Djokovic from 3, '18 USO, '21 AO and '21W) is just luck evening trying to even itself out from his horror prime period.

But he is still net unlucky with non-clay slams in his career.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Primedal is generally agreed to have been from 2008-2014.

In this time...
On grass:
  • He didn’t even play at Wimbledon ‘09 through injury, missing the opportunity to play a weaker Federer or Roddick/Murray. He won the 2 Wimbledons either side of this in 2008 and 2010.
  • During his 2012 match against a zoning ballbasher Rosol who couldn’t miss, he sustained an injury to the extent that he was immediately out for the next 8 months
He missed 3 hard court slams altogether:
  • 2012 US Open, in which Djokovic was at a far lower level than in 2011 and Federer didn’t even make the final. Nadal reached the 3 other US finals in this period (2010-13)
  • 2013 Aussie Open. Nadal reached the final of the Aussie Opens in 2012 and 2014, won Indian Wells as soon as he returned to hard court in 2013, and beat Djokovic in their outdoor HC matches in 2013
  • 2014 US Open which was Upset Open; neither Federer or Djokovic reached the final
He sustained injury at 3 hard court slams:
  • Retired against Murray at the Aussie Open in 2010. Nadal was defending his title and comfortably won the other HC slam in 2010.
  • Lost a match with a hamstring injury (imo one of the rarest and unluckiest injuries in tennis) vs his then-pigeon Ferrer at the 2011 AO. Peakovic would have been a huge challenge but Nadal had won the previous HC slam match vs Djokovic comfortably and before the mental block set in during the clay season, he ran Djokovic close in their next HC matches despite serving at 41% at IW (plus Primedal was always better at Bo5 than Bo3 on hard court)
  • Lost the 2014 AO final, where he got a back injury in the warmup against a guy he’d never lost a set to on HC before (and who he is 19-3 against with the other Ls coming in 2015)
That’s 8 injury-affected slams off-clay in his prime years. Nadal was finalling or winning the majority of the other non-clay slams in this period. No other ATG has had anything close to this injury record in their prime (Djokovic and Federer missed 0 non clay slams with injury in their primes).

Nadal benefitting from 3 nice HC slam draws since 2017 (when in the same period, Federer has benefitted from 2, '17W and '18AO, and Djokovic from 3, '18 USO, '21 AO and '21W) is just luck evening trying to even itself out from his horror prime period.

But he is still net unlucky with non-clay slams in his career.
Wim 09 - he'd have to go through a draw of Hewitt, Murray, Roddick, Fed. fat chance
Wim 12 - just got outplayed by Rosol

AO 13 - lol @ thinking Nadal would have a chance vs djoko unless he was in top form and it'd still be less than 40%
USO 14 - was already past his prime by then. Cilic would've beaten him

AO 10 - was losing to Murray even before injury
AO 11 - would've lost to Djoko anyways
AO 14 - Stan was up a set and a break before nadal injury. Would've likely won anyways
USO 12 - he'd get beaten by Djokovic for sure unless it was in windy conditions. Djoko was rampaging through the draw when it wasn't windy.

Maybe out of all this, he'd win 1
compared to 3 slams he's got in USO 17, USO 19, AO 22 - he's easily benefitted overall.
 
I agree except for Djokovic being in a low level at the Us Open 2012, he wasn't
Except for the final, Djokovic was phenomenal, I agree. The way he totally dismantled very well playing opponents, including a zoning Juan Martin Del Potro, was nothing short of spectacular.
However, if Murray could take him down in windy conditions, then I'm more than assured, that the best player in the wind - Rafa Nadal would take him down as well.
 

Gt86

Professional
Wim 09 - he'd have to go through a draw of Hewitt, Murray, Roddick, Fed. fat chance
Wim 12 - just got outplayed by Rosol

AO 13 - lol @ thinking Nadal would have a chance vs djoko unless he was in top form and it'd still be less than 40%
USO 14 - was already past his prime by then. Cilic would've beaten him

AO 10 - was losing to Murray even before injury
AO 11 - would've lost to Djoko anyways
AO 14 - Stan was up a set and a break before nadal injury. Would've likely won anyways
USO 12 - he'd get beaten by Djokovic for sure unless it was in windy conditions. Djoko was rampaging through the draw when it wasn't windy.

Maybe out of all this, he'd win 1
compared to 3 slams he's got in USO 17, USO 19, AO 22 - he's easily benefitted overall.
Such laughable stuff. Cilic beating Nadal at the Us Open is funniest thing ive ever read lmao.
Of the above Nadal almost certainly wins w2019 Ao 2014 USo 2012 uso 2014 ao 2011 and throw in USO 2018 as well .
Lots of players in history should have more majors but injuries robbed them. What Nadal has done is not let injuries stop his march to the summit of the game in historical terms. Being the Greatest despite all the above setbacks is what makes him so epic and his achievements all the more remarkable. He is an inspiration.
 

jl809

Semi-Pro
However, if Murray could take him down in windy conditions, then I'm more than assured, that the best player in the wind - Rafa Nadal would take him down as well.
forgot to even mention this, yep. Wind stacks the Nadal-Djokovic rivalry towards Nadal as the US '13 final (among others) shows
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Nadal was beating all of the guys you mentioned on all surfaces at this point. The only recent L was Murray at the USO in 08 and Nadal owns Murray on grass
He'd take down Hewitt I'd say. But could very well lose to Roddick in QF. He'd need to be in absolute top form to take down that Roddick. No guarentees there.
If he got through that, he'd be favored over Murray, but still would be dead tired if he got through Murray.
fed would beat him if he comes through that draw.
 

zuluzazu

Hall of Fame
Wim 09 - he'd have to go through a draw of Hewitt, Murray, Roddick, Fed. fat chance
Wim 12 - just got outplayed by Rosol

AO 13 - lol @ thinking Nadal would have a chance vs djoko unless he was in top form and it'd still be less than 40%
USO 14 - was already past his prime by then. Cilic would've beaten him

AO 10 - was losing to Murray even before injury
AO 11 - would've lost to Djoko anyways
AO 14 - Stan was up a set and a break before nadal injury. Would've likely won anyways
USO 12 - he'd get beaten by Djokovic for sure unless it was in windy conditions. Djoko was rampaging through the draw when it wasn't windy.

Maybe out of all this, he'd win 1
compared to 3 slams he's got in USO 17, USO 19, AO 22 - he's easily benefitted overall.
Yes we all know that being a set and a break up against big 3 guarantees a win in a slam. So of course Wawrinka would have won in 2014 considering Nadal was 12-0 in H2H
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Such laughable stuff. Cilic beating Nadal at the Us Open is funniest thing ive ever read lmao.
Of the above Nadal almost certainly wins w2019 Ao 2014 USo 2012 uso 2014 ao 2011 and throw in USO 2018 as well .
Lots of players in history should have more majors but injuries robbed them. What Nadal has done is not let injuries stop his march to the summit of the game in historical terms. Being the Greatest despite all the above setbacks is what makes him so epic and his achievements all the more remarkable. He is an inspiration.
LOLOLOLLLLLLLLLLL
wait
LOLOLLLLLLLLLLLL
 

Gt86

Professional
forgot to even mention this, yep. Wind stacks the Nadal-Djokovic rivalry towards Nadal as the US '13 final shows
Outdoor tennis has wind lol. Anyone who tries to say 'without wind x woukd have happend' should quit watching tennis ans follow squash
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Yes we all know that being a set and a break up against big 3 guarantees a win in a slam. So of course Wawrinka would have won in 2014 considering Nadal was 12-0 in H2H
stan likely wins does not mean 100% guarentee.
Stan had also beaten peak Djoko in 5 sets at the same AO.
Djoko playing significantly better than Nadal compensates for nadal being a clearly tougher matchup for Stan.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Thats what many are doing at your posts yes agreed.
Cilic in worse form beat Nadal in AO 18. but you think Cilic in career best form wouldn't beat Nadal of USO 14 (who was already past his prime)? (unless nadal was in prime form)
ok, boomer.
 

Gt86

Professional
Yes we all know that being a set and a break up against big 3 guarantees a win in a slam. So of course Wawrinka would have won in 2014 considering Nadal was 12-0 in H2H
Lol. You can spot the people who do not watch or play tennis. Anyone saying 'oh he was a set and break up means player y would have won' definitely has never played tennis other than hit and giggle stuff
 

Gt86

Professional
Cilic in worse form beat Nadal in AO 18. but you think Cilic in career best form wouldn't beat Nadal of USO 14 (who was already past his prime)? (unless nadal was in prime form)
ok, boomer.
Nadal would have straight setted Cilic. That is a definite as it would have been a slam final
 
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zuluzazu

Hall of Fame
stan likely wins does not mean 100% guarentee.
Stan had also beaten peak Djoko in 5 sets at the same AO.
Djoko playing significantly better than Nadal compensates for nadal being a clearly tougher matchup for Stan.
Problem with this is Wawrinka’s level clearly declined in the *** end of 2nd set and third set. I clearly think Wawa loses steam if Nadal remained healthy. If I am not wrong since that Wawa has only beaten 2015-16dal other than 2014AO. He even lost to 2015dal in YE . That matchup is very very lopsided
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Lol. You can spot the people who do not watch or play tennis. Anyone saying 'oh he was a set and break up means player y would have won' definitely has never played tennis other than hit and giggle stuff
yes, can see the projection, delusional VBBot

 

Gt86

Professional
stan likely wins does not mean 100% guarentee.
Stan had also beaten peak Djoko in 5 sets at the same AO.
Djoko playing significantly better than Nadal compensates for nadal being a clearly tougher matchup for Stan.
Do you watch tennis lol? Ot just make it up. In 2014 Nadal was way better than Djokovic. Perhaps you missed Nadal outclassing Federer in the semis and Federer was playijg brilliant stuff way better than Wawrinka was
 
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Wimby 09 and USO 12 were the only real missed opportunities IMO. Had he been healthy for Wimby he’s the co-favorite at worst. And given how terribad the USO 12 F was he would have been favored over either Murrovic. He pushed Joker to the absolute brink in the AO F earlier that year where Joker is much better at. And I highly doubt he would have let Murray off the hook like Joker did.

Overall I think things have balanced out for him.
 

zuluzazu

Hall of Fame
Problem with this is Wawrinka’s level clearly declined in the *** end of 2nd set and third set. I clearly think Wawa loses steam if Nadal remained healthy. If I am not wrong since that Wawa has only beaten 2015-16dal other than 2014AO. He even lost to 2015dal in YE . That matchup is very very lopsided
Lol f@g is banned???
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Do you watch tennis lol? Ot just make it up. In 2014 Nadal was way better than Djokovic. Perhaps you missed Nadal outclassing Federer in the semis. Cannot stop laughing sorry
I've watched more tennis in a few months than you have in your lifetime, VBBot.
nadal played well vs fed in the semi, but struggled to an extent vs Nishi, Dimi and Stan before injury.
Djoko was Easily better in the 1st few rounds and vs Stan.
 

Gt86

Professional
Problem with this is Wawrinka’s level clearly declined in the *** end of 2nd set and third set. I clearly think Wawa loses steam if Nadal remained healthy. If I am not wrong since that Wawa has only beaten 2015-16dal other than 2014AO. He even lost to 2015dal in YE . That matchup is very very lopsided
You watched the match clearly. Always helps when discussing a topic.
 

Gt86

Professional
I've watched more tennis in a few months than you have in your lifetime, VBBot.
nadal played well vs fed in the semi, but struggled to an extent vs Nishi, Dimi and Stan before injury.
Djoko was Easily better in the 1st few rounds and vs Stan.
No sorry lol. You clearly havent. You just come across bitter that Nadal became GOAT. Many here keep correcting your statements. Not just me .
 

Gt86

Professional
Lol I was crying tears of blood while watching that match. That was so so painful. 2022 AO has decreased the pain a bit. Now 2018 Wimby gives me a lot of pain and I hope Rafa wins the wimby again
I am super relaxed now 21 has been achieved. Rafa to me has exceeded everything i ever wanted him to do. I was happy when he was at 20 slams as he had an Olympic gold as well but to actually be all alone on 21 and probably will be slam leader when i die is just so epic. Ill be watchijg AO 2022 final later.
 

zuluzazu

Hall of Fame
I've watched more tennis in a few months than you have in your lifetime, VBBot.
nadal played well vs fed in the semi, but struggled to an extent vs Nishi, Dimi and Stan before injury.
Djoko was Easily better in the 1st few rounds and vs Stan.
Early round form hardly matters. Nadal was rounding up his form quite well. He was also underwhelming in 2014 FO in the first few rounds but stormed the SF and F. Obviously AO and FO can’t be compared but Nadal normally is very very miserly against non Big 3 opponents in SF and F of a slam
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Problem with this is Wawrinka’s level clearly declined in the *** end of 2nd set and third set. I clearly think Wawa loses steam if Nadal remained healthy. If I am not wrong since that Wawa has only beaten 2015-16dal other than 2014AO. He even lost to 2015dal in YE . That matchup is very very lopsided
Stan won the 2nd set with a double break.

In the 2nd set, Nadal had to save 3 BPs at 1-5 to avoid losing with a triple break. Then Stan held at 15 at 5-2.

So I'm not sure what you are talking about regarding 2nd set.

and yes, Stan was confused/shaken as to how to handle the situation. hence lost the 3rd set.

the matchup is lopsided, but Stan was in career best form at that AO. already up a set and a break before nadal injury. nadal would have to play pretty well to beat him, which he wasn't doing even before injury.
Is there a possibility Nadal comes back? yes, but its not good.
Stan win is likely IMO
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Early round form hardly matters. Nadal was rounding up his form quite well. He was also underwhelming in 2014 FO in the first few rounds but stormed the SF and F. Obviously AO and FO can’t be compared but Nadal normally is very very miserly against non Big 3 opponents in SF and F if a slam
It was 4R and QF vs Nishi and Dimi respectively at AO 14.
QF definitely is not early round by any definition. nadal needed dimi to choke in the 3rd set TB in that one.
final as well, not that good vs Stan before injury - went down a set and a break.

FO 2014 - nadal had already turned it around in QF demolishing ferrer in the last 2 sets in the QF. unlike in AO 14 QF.
 
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abmk

Bionic Poster
No sorry lol. You clearly havent. You just come across bitter that Nadal became GOAT. Many here keep correcting your statements. Not just me .
Oh, I see VBBot is upset that I am a heathen to nadal.
Deal with it, pal.
 

spottishwood

Hall of Fame
He didn’t even play at Wimbledon ‘09 through injury, missing the opportunity to play a weaker Federer or Roddick/Murray. He won the 2 Wimbledons either side of this in 2008 and 2010.
Winning Wimby '09 was kinda unlikely with that sorta draw. He had to play Clement, Hewitt(Wouldn't call even '09 Hewitt an easy 2nd round, will win anyway), Petzschner(A very dangerous R3 opponent who led 2-1 before losing in 5 the very next year), Stepanek(Decent grass courter), Roddick(GOATing in the tournament), Murray, Federer. Don't see him winning this one unless he's at his absolute best. A real 'draw from hell'.
2012 US Open, in which Djokovic was at a far lower level than in 2011 and Federer didn’t even make the final. Nadal reached the 3 other US finals in this period (2010-13)
Would've won had he met Djo in Finals. In early rounds, Djoko was playing crazy good, so NAH.
2014 US Open which was Upset Open; neither Federer or Djokovic reached the final
Would like his chances against Cilic if the match goes distance.
Lost the 2014 AO final, where he got a back injury in the warmup against a guy he’d never lost a set to on HC before (and who he is 19-3 against with the other Ls coming in 2015)
May win as Stan had started declining later in the match and Nadal has a huge match up advantage.
 
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Kralingen

G.O.A.T.
He would be the first to tell you that the long breaks from injury helped him bring a Slam winning level to the ones he did win in reality.

it is certainly not as black and white as “without injury”. He has been unlucky yes but when you can never sustain a top level for more than 10 months it’s not exactly luck it’s a feature. My opinion is he needs the breaks. Of course, the injuries are real, but without the breaks who’s to say he wins the Slams he did win in reality?

VB cannot understand this concept whatsoever.

On the other hand Nadal haters play it up too much.
 

fishpiefriday

Semi-Pro
Injuries are a part of sport. People will always wonder 'what if' with regards to a player being fit and healthy, but injury happens and they weren't. It's all part of the story of a career.
 

MeatTornado

Talk Tennis Guru
He'd take down Hewitt I'd say. But could very well lose to Roddick in QF. He'd need to be in absolute top form to take down that Roddick. No guarentees there.
If he got through that, he'd be favored over Murray, but still would be dead tired if he got through Murray.
fed would beat him if he comes through that draw.
I learned my lesson 6 months prior about how that means nothing with Nadal.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
A little thing called the 2009 Australian Open
oh, I was thinking 6 months before now.

that's one match albeit long semi. not the same case here with multiple tough matches before the final.
and nadal was at the top of confidence there.
not the case in Wim 09 after Sod loss at RG

wasn't also the talk of nadal not being fully fresh at USO 08 cited as one reason for him not doing so well vs Murray in the semi?
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Nadal was beating all of the guys you mentioned on all surfaces at this point. The only recent L was Murray at the USO in 08 and Nadal owns Murray on grass
It's not a question of beating one of those guys individually. It's about beating all of them.
 
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