Nadal has declined on clay, but not at the FO

[Brett UK]

I think up to and including 2010 Nadal was amazing on clay full stop.(ok except for blue coloured clay)

Then I noticed that he was winning at RG due to incredible top spin rather than an incredible standard of tennis. He gets far more top spin bounce at RG on Chatrier than at any other tournament.

I think this is why Nadal's performance has dropped significantly on other clay surfaces but at RG he keeps winning.

On clay form this year I sort of wondered if Djokovic could beat Nadal at RG. I thought it was close with Nadal having a big of an edge based on his record. However, as soon as the match started it was clear that there is way more bounce for Djokovic to negotiate than on other clay courts and he had to hit so many awkward backhands. It was awesome play by Djokovic to fight as hard as he did I had no doubt that the bounce difficulty would wear him down.

So my points are this:
1) I think Nadal keeps winning RG for at least the next few years. He can only lose if it is bad weather.
2) I think Chatrier is a bad surface. I think other clay tournaments provide a better chance for the player on the day to prevail.
3) Djokovic played a great final despite being lambasted here and "he is done" etc will never win another slam etc. I doubt he can play better against Nadal on Chatrier. He is over his finals choking business as Wimbledon showed. (I think RG showed it too)
4) If you gave Djokovic 5 clay matches v Nadal at 5 different tournaments, I would expect Djokovic to win 3 or 4 but he would lose RG. (acknowledge that better to win 1 RG than 4 masters) All hypothetical so would just say next year I expect Nadal to win RG but Djokovic to get more ranking points on the other clay events.

 

[SLD76]

Honestly..As magnificent as Rafa is on clay, I can honestly say this year was the first year he was lucky to win the FO.

Think about, he had a **** poor clay season by his standards. Got beat twice by pidgeons, only won one title because Nishikori had a body attack and got handled by Djoker.

But what happens at the French? Plays absolute nobodies the first few rounds. I think two opponents weren't in the top 100. Then plays a Ferrer who was ill, which we didn't know at the time.

Then gets Murray in the semi, who never mind Nadal.owning him on clay, this is the post back surgery Murray who was also completely exhausted and dead legged after back to back 5 set matches. The Murray match may have been his easiest of the tournament.

Then he gets Djoker in the final....who ends up being sick as well, puking on court no less.

So 3 or 4 rounds of scrubs, one opponent completely dead on court, and 2 who were ill.

Unbelievable. It's like all the luck he no longer has at Wimbledon convened at the FO this year.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Dull will lose it next year. He was lucky djokovic was unwell in the final this year.

 

[jg153040]

Dull will lose it next year. He was lucky djokovic was unwell in the final this year.

People are saying this for 9 years now. An the result? Rafa's 9 RG trophies.

 

[Brett UK]

Honestly..As magnificent as Rafa is on clay, I can honestly say this year was the first year he was lucky to win the FO.

Think about, he had a **** poor clay season by his standards. Got beat twice by pidgeons, only won one title because Nishikori had a body attack and got handled by Djoker.

But what happens at the French? Plays absolute nobodies the first few rounds. I think two opponents weren't in the top 100. Then plays a Ferrer who was ill, which we didn't know at the time.

Then gets Murray in the semi, who never mind Nadal.owning him on clay, this is the post back surgery Murray who was also completely exhausted and dead legged after back to back 5 set matches. The Murray match may have been his easiest of the tournament.

Then he gets Djoker in the final....who ends up being sick as well, puking on court no less.

So 3 or 4 rounds of scrubs, one opponent completely dead on court, and 2 who were ill.

Unbelievable. It's like all the luck he no longer has at Wimbledon convened at the FO this year.

Interesting points. I didn't realise that Ferrer was ill in that quarter. I thought he gave up and admitted as much. The Murray semi was a joke. Shocking play by Murray. Most people forget that Djokovic was unwell in the final. Having said all of that I believe Nadal wins RG next year because the top spin effect on Chatrier. I would not back him to win MC, or Rome or Madrid next year.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

People are saying this for 9 years now. An the result? Rafa's 9 RG trophies.

It is true rafa is the king of clay and it's so hard to beat him there. Only 1 loss. However, Novak has the game to beat him and had he been 100% physically he may well have. I feel at RG over last few years rafa has been getting the breaks. The other 6 years he was far too good. Now the gap has narrowed between him and nole.

 

[Smasher08]

I think up to and including 2010 Nadal was amazing on clay full stop.(ok except for blue coloured clay)

Then I noticed that he was winning at RG due to incredible top spin rather than an incredible standard of tennis. He gets far more top spin bounce at RG on Chatrier than at any other tournament.

I think this is why Nadal's performance has dropped significantly on other clay surfaces but at RG he keeps winning.

On clay form this year I sort of wondered if Djokovic could beat Nadal at RG. I thought it was close with Nadal having a big of an edge based on his record. However, as soon as the match started it was clear that there is way more bounce for Djokovic to negotiate than on other clay courts and he had to hit so many awkward backhands. It was awesome play by Djokovic to fight as hard as he did I had no doubt that the bounce difficulty would wear him down.

So my points are this:
1) I think Nadal keeps winning RG for at least the next few years. He can only lose if it is bad weather.
2) I think Chatrier is a bad surface. I think other clay tournaments provide a better chance for the player on the day to prevail.
3) Djokovic played a great final despite being lambasted here and "he is done" etc will never win another slam etc. I doubt he can play better against Nadal on Chatrier. He is over his finals choking business as Wimbledon showed. (I think RG showed it too)
4) If you gave Djokovic 5 clay matches v Nadal at 5 different tournaments, I would expect Djokovic to win 3 or 4 but he would lose RG. (acknowledge that better to win 1 RG than 4 masters) All hypothetical so would just say next year I expect Nadal to win RG but Djokovic to get more ranking points on the other clay events.

Nads was lucky to get through the SFs last year too.

Since the new year, he's needed twice as much luck as Federer to get through draws.

Whatever happened in the new year?.....

 

[Brett UK]

It is true rafa is the king of clay and it's so hard to beat him there. Only 1 loss. However, Novak has the game to beat him and had he been 100% physically he may well have. I feel at RG over last few years rafa has been getting the breaks. The other 6 years he was far too good. Now the gap has narrowed between him and nole.

but DITB, I think Nole has narrowed the gap and even created an edge on clay. It is just the bounce on Chatrier that is too much. (and Djokovic is awesome at handling the high bounce to the backhand but it is mission impossible)

The smart bet is to wait for Nadal to lose in the clay masters, and then bet on Nadal for RG when the odds go up a bit. worked for me very nicely last year. (not for huge amounts though)

 

[SLD76]

Interesting points. I didn't realise that Ferrer was ill in that quarter. I thought he gave up and admitted as much. The Murray semi was a joke. Shocking play by Murray. Most people forget that Djokovic was unwell in the final. Having said all of that I believe Nadal wins RG next year because the top spin effect on Chatrier. I would not back him to win MC, or Rome or Madrid next year.

Ferrer pulled out of a grass tourney after the FO due to illness, and it turned out the illness started during the FO.

 

[SLD76]

but DITB, I think Nole has narrowed the gap and even created an edge on clay. It is just the bounce on Chatrier that is too much. (and Djokovic is awesome at handling the high bounce to the backhand but it is mission impossible)

The smart bet is to wait for Nadal to lose in the clay masters, and then bet on Nadal for RG when the odds go up a bit. worked for me very nicely last year. (not for huge amounts though)

I don't think the bounce is as big an issue the more Nadal declines.

A half dead and sick Djoker took a set off Nadal during the final. Can you imagine that happening 4 years ago?

 

[Murrayfan31]

I think up to and including 2010 Nadal was amazing on clay full stop.(ok except for blue coloured clay)

Then I noticed that he was winning at RG due to incredible top spin rather than an incredible standard of tennis. He gets far more top spin bounce at RG on Chatrier than at any other tournament.

I think this is why Nadal's performance has dropped significantly on other clay surfaces but at RG he keeps winning.

On clay form this year I sort of wondered if Djokovic could beat Nadal at RG. I thought it was close with Nadal having a big of an edge based on his record. However, as soon as the match started it was clear that there is way more bounce for Djokovic to negotiate than on other clay courts and he had to hit so many awkward backhands. It was awesome play by Djokovic to fight as hard as he did I had no doubt that the bounce difficulty would wear him down.

So my points are this:
1) I think Nadal keeps winning RG for at least the next few years. He can only lose if it is bad weather.
2) I think Chatrier is a bad surface. I think other clay tournaments provide a better chance for the player on the day to prevail.
3) Djokovic played a great final despite being lambasted here and "he is done" etc will never win another slam etc. I doubt he can play better against Nadal on Chatrier. He is over his finals choking business as Wimbledon showed. (I think RG showed it too)
4) If you gave Djokovic 5 clay matches v Nadal at 5 different tournaments, I would expect Djokovic to win 3 or 4 but he would lose RG. (acknowledge that better to win 1 RG than 4 masters) All hypothetical so would just say next year I expect Nadal to win RG but Djokovic to get more ranking points on the other clay events.

I endorse this post. Great points.

 

[JMR]

I think up to and including 2010 Nadal was amazing on clay full stop.(ok except for blue coloured clay)

Then I noticed that he was winning at RG due to incredible top spin rather than an incredible standard of tennis. He gets far more top spin bounce at RG on Chatrier than at any other tournament.

It's also true that Federer's results against Nadal on clay have been a little better away from Roland Garros (beat him in Hamburg and Madrid; should have beat him in Rome; fought pretty well at Monte Carlo).

I don't whether the hypothesis about Chatrier is correct, but Bjorn Borg, the topspin king of his day, also was more dominant at Roland Garros than at the rest of the clay court events. His French Open opponents used to complain about how impossible it was to play against him with all his shots bouncing above their heads.

 

[MichaelNadal]

:lol: @Djokovic was sick in the final. He may have been, but it didn't affect his tennis 1 shred. Do watch the match, and/or highlights and see that he gave it 200% and Nadal was still good enough to beat him.

 

[conway]

Oh he has declined at the FO. His level at RG from 2011-2014 comes nowhere near 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, maybe even 2005 and 2009 (despite the loss, maybe 2012 alone on par with just those two years, but none of the others).

 

[uliks]

:lol: @Djokovic was sick in the final. He may have been, but it didn't affect his tennis 1 shred. Do watch the match, and/or highlights and see that he gave it 200% and Nadal was still good enough to beat him.

Yes. And Nadal was not affected by his back problems in AO final against Wawrinka.

 

[dudeski]

:lol: @Djokovic was sick in the final. He may have been, but it didn't affect his tennis 1 shred. Do watch the match, and/or highlights and see that he gave it 200% and Nadal was still good enough to beat him.

Do you seriously think Djokovic was playing near his best in the final?

 

[Federer302]

The 2014 French Open Final was far far below the level of the 2013 semi.

 

[LazyNinja19]

So my points are this:

2) I think Chatrier is a bad surface. I think other clay tournaments provide a better chance for the player on the day to prevail.
3) Djokovic played a great final despite being lambasted here and "he is done" etc will never win another slam etc. I doubt he can play better against Nadal on Chatrier. He is over his finals choking business as Wimbledon showed. (I think RG showed it too)
4) If you gave Djokovic 5 clay matches v Nadal at 5 different tournaments, I would expect Djokovic to win 3 or 4 but he would lose RG. (acknowledge that better to win 1 RG than 4 masters) All hypothetical so would just say next year I expect Nadal to win RG but Djokovic to get more ranking points on the other clay events.

2) If Chatrier is a bad surface, then Wimbledon centre court is a bad surface too. So is the Arthur Ashe stadium.
The centre courts of the 4 Grand Slams are the greatest courts, and are supposed to be the blueprints for the respective surfaces.

3) Only time will tell

4)LOL. Nadal is way way down his Clay prime. Still Djoker is not winning 3or4 out of 5, regardless of the location of the clay courts. If you want an average he might win 2 at max.

 

[The Green Mile]

I see AssaultJoker is back...do try and keep your account this time dear :lol:

As for the decline at RG, I think he has somewhat. His level at RG during the 2005-2010 period was very steady and at a high level throughout, most of the time. These last few years have been a bit more inconsistent play wise, but obviously still good enough when it counts.

 

[Smasher08]

Do you seriously think Djokovic was playing near his best in the final?

He's kind of snapped ever since his beloved withdrew. In all honesty, it looks like the possibility of Fred winning the USO is making him apoplectic.

 

[Andres]

Talk Tennis is priceless sometimes. A guy wins 9 French Opens in 10 years, and people still claims he "was just lucky"

 

[Deleted member 77403]

The fact it is a best of five also favors Nadal. It much more harder to beat him in those conditions. Also PC court is just perfect for him, there is more space to move and defend at the back, and just the dimensions of the actual ground also favors Nadal. He is able to get to balls, he wouldn't on other courts.

 

[TennisCJC]

Did Djokovic have a stomach virus during last final. I know many were sick during RG and I thought I read he was throwing up the day of the final. If this is accurate, this is the main reason Nadal won RG 2014.

 

[underground]

No Nadal's level at the FO has significantly dropped:

- He played nobodies in the first 4 rounds, and I mean nobodies. No top 50? Highest ranked was Thiem at 57, and even him was inexperienced as well.

- Ferrer managed to take a set off Rafa in the QF, in a place where Rafa normally destroys him regardless of their matches in the other clay tournaments. Rafa won with a comfortable scoreline at the end because Ferrer gave up: he even said so that he wanted to throw in the towel after the 2nd set.

- Murray's form compared to their match in Rome dropped a lot, but I'll give credit to Rafa in this one he played well.

- Honestly speaking the quality of the final was nowhere near the 2013 semi.

 

[Federer302]

Did Djokovic have a stomach virus during last final. I know many were sick during RG and I thought I read he was throwing up the day of the final. If this is accurate, this is the main reason Nadal won RG 2014.

He threw up during the final.

https://v.cdn.vine.co/r/videos/A1A1...p4?versionId=y_7hTlO6Rh2TArr3VNsVeDXlUusb6AUp

 

[Smasher08]

He threw up during the final.

I guess some posters here have thrown up during matches before and were completely unaffected like it was no big deal! :lol:

 

[conway]

As a Nadal fan the one thing I am happy about is even though he has declined massively (even at RG) since his clay prime of 2006-2010, he isn't any worse than 2011. So his big decline already happened, and he is mostly just staying at that level since, so hopefully it will be several more years before a further decline.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Talk Tennis is priceless sometimes. A guy wins 9 French Opens in 10 years, and people still claims he "was just lucky"

They're just mad Love thy hater.

The fact it is a best of five also favors Nadal. It much more harder to beat him in those conditions. Also PC court is just perfect for him, there is more space to move and defend at the back, and just the dimensions of the actual ground also favors Nadal. He is able to get to balls, he wouldn't on other courts.

Good points, I agree on all of them.

I guess some posters here have thrown up during matches before and were completely unaffected like it was no big deal! :lol:

Sick or not, Djokovic played mighty fine tennis in the final. Not sure why his fans have to act like he couldn't keep the ball in court. They were going AT IT. The humidity was bothering Djokovic (and Nadal too for that matter, who said he was already spent in the middle of the second set).

 

[Mustard]

I see Nadal's 6-0 against Djokovic at the French Open isn't enough for some guys :lol:

Nadal's clay form in 2012 was amongst the best I've seen, apart from that match against Verdasco on the blue clay at Madrid.

 

[Magnetite]

By the time the French Open begins, he's a well oiled clay machine.

He takes off the later half of every year, to rest up and trains up a bit for WTF and the AO.

A few hard court tournaments sometimes, then it's back to clay court tennis where he gets in form for the French Open.

He's well rested, and generally just owns the place. Maybe it bounces a bit higher, but maybe he just plays that much better, and harder at the French Open. Maybe he's just mentally tougher in a major, on the court he pretty much owns.

He basically tries to peak for the French Open, and he pretty much does.

 

[Andres]

They're just mad Love thy hater.

A decade worth of luck. I wish I was him

 

[MichaelNadal]

A decade worth of luck. I wish I was him

Me too

 

[Djokovic2011]

I see Nadal's 6-0 against Djokovic at the French Open isn't enough for some guys :lol:

Nadal's clay form in 2012 was amongst the best I've seen, apart from that match against Verdasco on the blue clay at Madrid.

Yes Nadal leads Nole 6-0 at RG but don't make out like they've all been walks in the park for him. It's not like Nadal has beaten him 6-1, 6-3, 6-2 every time they've played there, far from it in fact.

 

[jg153040]

Dull will lose it next year. He was lucky djokovic was unwell in the final this year.

Please stop this. I respect Djokovic a lot. But he had 6 chances and wasn't good enough to use them. So, you can't just pin that on some crazy excuses.

I really don't like Rafa's cheating and personality on court, but even I have to admit his skills on clay are godly and joy to watch.

 

[The Green Mile]

Yes Nadal leads Nole 6-0 at RG but don't make out like they've all been walks in the park for him. It's not like Nadal has beaten him 6-1, 6-3, 6-2 every time they've played there, far from it in fact.

The first three meetings were relatively straight foward. The last three have been more competitive though.

 

[Djokovic2011]

Please stop this. I respect Djokovic a lot. But he had 6 chances and wasn't good enough to use them. So, you can't just pin that on some crazy excuses.

I really don't like Rafa's cheating and personality on court, but even I have to admit his skills on clay are godly and joy to watch.

I agree jg. I do think Nole has had some bad luck at RG in the last few years but that happens to most players so we all need to just get over it and move on. At the end of the day Nadal's beaten Novak six times there and he deserved each victory and that's just the way it is.

 

[Djokovic2011]

The first three meetings were relatively straight foward. The last three have been more competitive though.

2006 was but I don't think any of the others were that straight forward, even if they were straight sets defeats.

 

[MichaelNadal]

2006 was but I don't think any of the others were that straight forward, even if they were straight sets defeats.

But you think Novak's wins over Nadal in 2011 were?

 

[Djokovic2011]

But you think Novak's wins over Nadal in 2011 were?

When have I ever said that babe? I wouldn't say they were straight forward(when is that ever the case against Nadal on clay?) but I wouldn't say they were super tough either.

 

[jg153040]

I agree jg. I do think Nole has had some bad luck at RG in the last few years but that happens to most players so we all need to just get over it and move on. At the end of the day Nadal's beaten Novak six times there and he deserved each victory and that's just the way it is.

Well, it's not over. I still believe Djokovic will win RG.

I never give up on champions.

A bet against a champion is a bad bet .

But what would you rather see? Djokovic winnig
-2 AO titles
-2 W titles
-1 RG title

 

[Deleted member 716271]

I think a large part of it is credit to Nadal being indestructible on clay over 5 sets, rather than RG itself. 9 in 10 years is no accident, but Nadal has great clay records everywhere and his decline now in some of the lead-ups might just be preservation of effort. He is also unbeaten away from RG over 5 sets, remember those epic Rome finals?!

As a caveat to that line of thinking though, I would note how close RG '13 semifinal was, did it being on Lenglen play any role in that?

 

[Djokovic2011]

Well, it's not over. I still believe Djokovic will win RG.

I never give up on champions.

A bet against a champion is a bad bet .

But what would you rather see? Djokovic winnig
-2 AO titles
-2 W titles
-1 RG title

Funnily enough, and I never thought I'd say this, but if there was a choice between Novak winning a 3rd Wimbledon next year or a 1st RG, I actually think I'd take Wimbledon over anything else. Winning it this year for a 2nd time was just so wonderful and it's a memory I'll cherish forever.

 

[The Green Mile]

Funnily enough, and I never thought I'd say this, but if there was a choice between Novak winning a 3rd Wimbledon next year or a 1st RG, I actually think I'd take Wimbledon over anything else. Winning it this year for a 2nd time was just so wonderful and it's a memory I'll cherish forever.

Mmm hmm? :lol:

 

[Federer302]

Funnily enough, and I never thought I'd say this, but if there was a choice between Novak winning a 3rd Wimbledon next year or a 1st RG, I actually think I'd take Wimbledon over anything else. Winning it this year for a 2nd time was just so wonderful and it's a memory I'll cherish forever.

An interesting dilemma. Wimbledon is the biggest tennis tournament in the world.

Wimbledon is more prestigious but he is of course missing the French Open.

 

[Djokovic2011]

Mmm hmm? :lol:

Why do you say it like that?

 

[The Green Mile]

Why do you say it like that?

Sorry, but if you could choose and he actually won Wimbledon, I think you would regret not choosing the remainding GS from his resumee. It was a bit of tongue and cheek! Meaning I don't believe you!

 

[jg153040]

Funnily enough, and I never thought I'd say this, but if there was a choice between Novak winning a 3rd Wimbledon next year or a 1st RG, I actually think I'd take Wimbledon over anything else. Winning it this year for a 2nd time was just so wonderful and it's a memory I'll cherish forever.

That's interesting. But yeah 1 more W title and he surpasses Nadal on grass, something that nobody saw coming.

That will also mean Djokovic will surpass Nadal indoor/grass/HC and also surpases him on 3/4 surfaces.

I see your point, that would be sweet .

 

[Djokovic2011]

Sorry, but if you could choose and he actually won Wimbledon, I think you would regret not choosing the remainding GS from his resumee. It was a bit of tongue and cheek! Meaning I don't believe you!

Well that's just how I feel right now. Who knows if I'll feel the same next May but I really don't see Nole winning RG anymore- Wimbledon is much more realistic for him nowadays in my opinion.

 

[The Green Mile]

That's interesting. But yeah 1 more W title and he surpasses Nadal on grass, something that nobody saw coming.

That will also mean Djokovic will surpass Nadal indoor/grass/HC and also surpases him on 3/4 surfaces.

I see your point, that would be sweet .

Actually, when you put it like that.....but still!

 

[Mustard]

2006 was but I don't think any of the others were that straight forward, even if they were straight sets defeats.

Seriously? Compare their 2008 Hamburg semi final (a real epic struggle for the world number 2 ranking, Nadal winning 7-5, 2-6, 6-2) with their 2008 French Open semi final (Nadal taking a 6-4, 6-2, 3-0 with 2 breaks lead, and winning 6-4, 6-2, 7-6 in the end).