Nadal is going to finish 2013 as #1

[eliars]

*Let me know if I forgot to add/subtract points to be defended

OBS: talking about the Singles Rankings and not The Race List

Current rankings:

1. Novak Djokovic 12.310 pts
2. Andy Murray 9.360 pts
3. David Ferrer 7.120 pts
4. Rafael Nadal 6.860 pts
5. Roger Federer 5.785 pts
------------------------------------------
Points to defend rest of the year:

1. Novak Djokovic has 6080 pts to defend
2. Andy Murray has 4065 pts to defend
3. David Ferrer has 2465 pts to defend
4. Rafael Nadal has 0 pts to defend
5. Roger Federer has 3350 pts to defend
------------------------------------------
Points to defend rest of the year taken off:

1. Rafael Nadal 6.860 pts
2. Novak Djokovic 6.230 pts
3. Andy Murray 5.295 pts
4. David Ferrer 4.655 pts
5. Roger Federer 2.435 pts
-------------------------------------------

So this is it folks.
- Djokovic is not going to better 6080 pts from last year.
- Murray could better his points from Canada, Cincinnati and Paris where he got less than 150. But he still has 750 + 2000 pts to defend (OL will just drop off) and thus could be seen as the biggest threat to Nadal's #1 ranking, but I still don't see him outscoring Nadal.
- Ferrer can gain some ground if he plays Canada and Shanghai (didn't play them last year) and goes farther than the 3rd round of Cincinnati, but he still has 720 + 1000 points to defend from the USO and Paris.
- Federer? No chance in hell.

Rafa will regain his #1 spot sometime post-USO and hold it at least till the clay season next year. Thank you and goodnight.

 

[Clarky21]

*Let me know if I forgot to add/subtract points to be defended

Current rankings:

1. Novak Djokovic 12.310 pts
2. Andy Murray 9.360 pts
3. David Ferrer 7.120 pts
4. Rafael Nadal 6.860 pts
5. Roger Federer 5.785 pts
------------------------------------------
Points to defend rest of the year:

1. Novak Djokovic has 6080 pts to defend
2. Andy Murray has 4065 pts to defend
3. David Ferrer has 2465 pts to defend
4. Rafael Nadal has 0 pts to defend
5. Roger Federer has 3350 pts to defend
------------------------------------------
Points to defend rest of the year taken off:

1. Rafael Nadal 6.860 pts
2. Novak Djokovic 6.230 pts
3. Andy Murray 5.295 pts
4. David Ferrer 4.655 pts
5. Roger Federer 2.435 pts
-------------------------------------------

So this is it folks.
- Djokovic is not going to better 6080 pts from last year.
- Murray could better his points from Canada, Cincinnati and Paris where he got less than 150. But he still has 750 + 2000 pts to defend (OL will just drop off) and thus could be seen as the biggest threat to Nadal's YE #1 ranking, but I still don't see him outscoring Nadal.
- Ferrer can gain some ground if he plays Canada and Shanghai (didn't play them last year) and goes farther than the 3rd round of Cincinnati, but he still has 720 + 1000 points to defend from the USO and Paris.
- Federer? No chance in hell.

Rafa will regain his #1 spot sometime post-USO and hold it at least till the clay season next year. Thank you and goodnight.

I doubt it. I highly doubt Nadal will outperform those guys during their best part of the season and his worst. I don't think he will do a whole lot for the rest of the season, so I think he will finish the year at 5.

 

[Bryan Swartz]

Well, points to defend are irrelevant if you're talking about what it's going to look like at the end of the year. Just a suggestion that for this kind of thread, a better way is simply to look at what they've earned so far and what's left. Which leaves us with a slightly different list than your third one:

1. Nadal(7010)
2. Djokovic(6230)
3. Murray(5160)
4. Ferrer(4440)

Realistically only Nadal and Djokovic have a good chance at it, with an outside shot for Murray. Nadal has more 500/250 results in already which means Djokovic can close the gap just be winning a couple of those.

Nadal has to outperform Djokovic on the hardcourt swing to overtake him: Murray has to dominate it. The smart money's on Novak. The most significant factor is that Murray(French) and Nadal(AO, R1 exit at Wimby) have some serious ground to make up to because of their slam results. Steady Djokovic wins.

 

[eliars]

I doubt it. I highly doubt Nadal will outperform those guys during their best part of the season and his worst. I don't think he will do a whole lot for the rest of the season, so I think he will finish the year at 5.

Nadal doesn't need to outperform any of these guys for the rest of the year. Nadal has 0 points to defend. Nadal needs around 5000 points to catch Djokovic IF Djokovic manages to defend all of his points (OL points going awol, btw) which I doubt he will. I'm guessing Djokovic will lose around 1000-1500 points, so we're aiming for around 4000 points Nadal needs to amass.

If he plays 3 Masters 1000s (skips Cincy) + US Open + Tokyo + WTF - then amassing those points should be a realistic prospect.

 

[eliars]

Well, points to defend are irrelevant if you're talking about what it's going to look like at the end of the year. Just a suggestion that for this kind of thread, a better way is simply to look at what they've earned so far and what's left. Which leaves us with a slightly different list than your third one:

1. Nadal(7010)
2. Djokovic(6230)
3. Murray(5160)
4. Ferrer(4440)

Realistically only Nadal and Djokovic have a good chance at it, with an outside shot for Murray. Nadal has more 500/250 results in already which means Djokovic can close the gap just be winning a couple of those.

Nadal has to outperform Djokovic on the hardcourt swing to overtake him: Murray has to dominate it. The smart money's on Novak. The most significant factor is that Murray(French) and Nadal(AO, R1 exit at Wimby) have some serious ground to make up to because of their slam results. Steady Djokovic wins.

I'm not. I'm not talking about the Race list. Apoligies if I didn't make that clear enough. I'm talking about the actual rankings.

 

[Bryan Swartz]

I know it's not what you're talking about -- what I'm saying is it's what you should be talking about if your goal is to analyze who will finish the year at #1. Because if that's what it is(seems to be based on your comments and the thread title) then the current rankings are irrelevant.

 

[eliars]

This thread is made to predict that Nadal will regain the #1 ranking before next year based on points to be defended by others.

 

[ledwix]

The next time Nadal could conceivably be #1 to me is after Australian Open. Djokovic has done better than Nadal historically at Cincinnati, equally well in Montreal, slightly better than Nadal at USO, and better than Nadal by far in Paris/Shanghai/London. Plus Djokovic can pick up a 500 event during any break if he wants to get more points, whereas Nadal already played a lot of 250/500 events.

So overall, advantage Djokovic. Nadal will have to have his best hard court season to finish #1 again.

 

[eliars]

The next time Nadal could conceivably be #1 to me is after Australian Open. Djokovic has done better than Nadal historically at Cincinnati, equally well in Montreal, slightly better than Nadal at USO, and better than Nadal by far in Paris/Shanghai/London. Plus Djokovic can pick up a 500 event during any break if he wants to get more points, whereas Nadal already played a lot of 250/500 events.

So overall, advantage Djokovic. Nadal will have to have his best hard court season to finish #1 again.

Not quite. Nadal managed over 4000 points in 2010 (post-Wimby). If he was to repeat something close to that I think he'll overtake Djokovic at the WTF.

Remember Djokovic has 6080 points to defend. That is _a lot_.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

He has almost zero points from Wimbledon and none from the Australian Open, so he has almost no chance of ending the year at 1. He could probably go for 3 or 4 though.

 

[6-3 6-0]

No. 1 looks pretty unlikely to me, bug he can certainly end the year as No. 2.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Unless he barely shows up, if he's playing well, he should have it by the time Australia is over at the latest. He really could have had it at the end of the year if he didn't completely crash out of Wimbledon.

 

[Crisstti]

Nadal doesn't need to outperform any of these guys for the rest of the year. Nadal has 0 points to defend. Nadal needs around 5000 points to catch Djokovic IF Djokovic manages to defend all of his points (OL points going awol, btw) which I doubt he will. I'm guessing Djokovic will lose around 1000-1500 points, so we're aiming for around 4000 points Nadal needs to amass.

If he plays 3 Masters 1000s (skips Cincy) + US Open + Tokyo + WTF - then amassing those points should be a realistic prospect.

I like your take on this

If he's healthy enough, he should give it a try.

His Wimbledon result really hurts his chances though, especially after not having played the AO.

 

[Tennis Fanatic 070]

He stands a good chance to finish no 1 in the wheelchair rankings.

 

[Chico]

*Let me know if I forgot to add/subtract points to be defended

OBS: talking about the Singles Rankings and not The Race List

Current rankings:

1. Novak Djokovic 12.310 pts
2. Andy Murray 9.360 pts
3. David Ferrer 7.120 pts
4. Rafael Nadal 6.860 pts
5. Roger Federer 5.785 pts
------------------------------------------
Points to defend rest of the year:

1. Novak Djokovic has 6080 pts to defend
2. Andy Murray has 4065 pts to defend
3. David Ferrer has 2465 pts to defend
4. Rafael Nadal has 0 pts to defend
5. Roger Federer has 3350 pts to defend
------------------------------------------
Points to defend rest of the year taken off:

1. Rafael Nadal 6.860 pts
2. Novak Djokovic 6.230 pts
3. Andy Murray 5.295 pts
4. David Ferrer 4.655 pts
5. Roger Federer 2.435 pts
-------------------------------------------

So this is it folks.
- Djokovic is not going to better 6080 pts from last year.
- Murray could better his points from Canada, Cincinnati and Paris where he got less than 150. But he still has 750 + 2000 pts to defend (OL will just drop off) and thus could be seen as the biggest threat to Nadal's #1 ranking, but I still don't see him outscoring Nadal.
- Ferrer can gain some ground if he plays Canada and Shanghai (didn't play them last year) and goes farther than the 3rd round of Cincinnati, but he still has 720 + 1000 points to defend from the USO and Paris.
- Federer? No chance in hell.

Rafa will regain his #1 spot sometime post-USO and hold it at least till the clay season next year. Thank you and goodnight.

Sure, sure, ...

 

[Aura]

His best chance, imo, is after AO next year, if he plays well.

It could certainly happen this year, but Nadal is not known for having amazing post-wimby success, where Djokovic and murray do much better.

Djokovic should get close to defending those 6k points, he is very successful post-wimby.

If djokovic plays like he has the last two years post-wimby, then i think his number 1 will not be in danger.

 

[m2nk2]

Well, we don't even know if Nadal can play more this year. His knee was really bad during Wimbledon.

Maybe he will save himself for clay season 2014 and get his 9th French Open.

It would be the sensible thing to do.

 

[Smasher08]

Well, points to defend are irrelevant if you're talking about what it's going to look like at the end of the year. Just a suggestion that for this kind of thread, a better way is simply to look at what they've earned so far and what's left. Which leaves us with a slightly different list than your third one:

1. Nadal(7010)
2. Djokovic(6230)
3. Murray(5160)
4. Ferrer(4440)

Realistically only Nadal and Djokovic have a good chance at it, with an outside shot for Murray. Nadal has more 500/250 results in already which means Djokovic can close the gap just be winning a couple of those.

Nadal has to outperform Djokovic on the hardcourt swing to overtake him: Murray has to dominate it. The smart money's on Novak. The most significant factor is that Murray(French) and Nadal(AO, R1 exit at Wimby) have some serious ground to make up to because of their slam results. Steady Djokovic wins.

Lol unlike the OP, you can actually do math! On top of that, you're able to see through the fundamental error in his reasoning: he tries to conveniently intermix champions race points with the 52 week ranking to specifically favour Nads.

If his incessant claims of knee issues are at all remotely true, RNadal will likely skip Cincy since (a) he's never done well there, and (b) prevention of said issues will be integral to any sort of push at Flushing Meadow.

The OP may do well to note that historically, RNadal has fizzled out post-USO. There are no clay tournaments of any real value, for one, and second of all, the faster surfaces at the remaining events blunt his retrieval skills. Whether or not Djok defends all his points is irrelevant. Merely playing one or more tournaments than RNadal and going deep will push him over the top. Additionally, Djok's success in the post-slam season last year is clear evidence that he can be expected to put in a strong performance this year.

With very few abberations, RNadal earns the bulk of his ranking points from April-June. Like RFederer, NDjokovic and AMurray are consistent year-round threats.

 

[Warmaster]

He only leads Djokovic by 800 points in the race. That's not nearly enough to finish #1 in 2013. He has a shot at #1 at the AO, but even there I don't see it happening.

Djokovic will clinch #1 relatively easily, unless he really starts to underperform.

 

[NatF]

He has little chance. This is typically his worst part of the season, he's not going to make more points than Djokovic or Murray.

 

[CMM]

Rafa already played two ATP 500 this year. If he plays Beijing and Basel, will the points he might gain there still count?
I know there's a limit to how many points a player can get from smaller tournaments.

 

[Chico]

Rafa already played two ATP 500 this year. If he plays Beijing and Basel, will the points he might gain there still count?
I know there's a limit to how many points a player can get from smaller tournaments.

They would count (player gets points for 4 500s), but Nadal will not win many points there, so it is really irrelevant.

 

[CMM]

They would count (player gets points for 4 500s), but Nadal will not win many points there, so it is really irrelevant.

We'll see....

 

[Chanwan]

He could, but he would need a much better than usual second half of the season.
In all likelyhood, Djokovic will do at least 800 points better than Nadal in the second half of the season (which is what is needed given the race to London).
However, Nadal has a better chance right after the Australian Open as he may get anywhere from 360-2000 points there, while Djokovic will have to defend 2000.
Still not a massive chance, but a quite reasonably chance

 

[Monsieur_DeLarge]

Nadal doesn't need to outperform any of these guys for the rest of the year. Nadal has 0 points to defend. Nadal needs around 5000 points to catch Djokovic IF Djokovic manages to defend all of his points (OL points going awol, btw) which I doubt he will. I'm guessing Djokovic will lose around 1000-1500 points, so we're aiming for around 4000 points Nadal needs to amass.

If he plays 3 Masters 1000s (skips Cincy) + US Open + Tokyo + WTF - then amassing those points should be a realistic prospect.

I admire your optimism. He hasn't won a Masters post-Wimbledon since 2008, nor even been to a final since Davydonkey straight-setted him in Shanghai back in 2009. In fact, since 2007 he's only 50/50 to reach the semis in any individual post-Wimbledon M1000.

Just for the record, his ranking points accumulation in the second half of the season since 2007 has been as follows:

• 2007: 1305
• 2008: 3050 (excl. Olympics)
• 2009: 2400
• 2010: 4720
• 2011: 1980
• 2012: 0
• 2013: ...?

Regards,
MDL

 

[clayqueen]

Rafa already played two ATP 500 this year. If he plays Beijing and Basel, will the points he might gain there still count?
I know there's a limit to how many points a player can get from smaller tournaments.

Rafa can only add one more 500 or 250 tournament. If he plays 2 he can substitute title points for his 150 points from Vina Del Mar.

 

[CMM]

I think we need to wait and see what happens at the next big 3 tournaments. To have a chance it's obvious Rafa needs to win the US Open.

 

[tennis_pro]

[/b]

Not quite. Nadal managed over 4000 points in 2010 (post-Wimby). If he was to repeat something close to that I think he'll overtake Djokovic at the WTF.

Remember Djokovic has 6080 points to defend. That is _a lot_.

Defending points from 2012 has NOTHING to do with who'll end 2013 ranked 1st.

In the current race Nadal is 1000 points ahead of Djokovic which means that if Djokovic doesn't outperform Nadal by more than 1000 points in the remaining hard court tournametns in 2013 that means that Nadal will be the year-end-no-1. I wouldn't bet on it, though. Djokovic is vastly superior on that surface.

 

[Sorana fan]

The one who wins USO will be #1

Once said so, being #1 is insignificant. Important thing is winning USO.

 

[Vamos Rafa]

He's got a shot at number 2 for sure, but can't see both Djokovic and Murray losing enough points to both go behind him when every big tournament from now is on a hardcourt.

If he has a good rest of 2013 and makes a big impact in Melbourne, then number one will be a major possibility.

 

[gusgrand]

with Murray's new found killer instinct and Djokovic's relentless consistency, I dont think Nadal has a chance at being number 1 this year due to his need for explosive movement held back by a dodgy knee that will no doubt fatigue massively at the two hard court majors that remain this year and lets not discount Federer yet who has just got himself a bigger racket so this should mean much less miss hits!

 

[JMR]

Defending points from 2012 has NOTHING to do with who'll end 2013 ranked 1st.

That observation needs to be made often and emphatically in threads of this type. People sometimes think they can provide a more "sophisticated" analysis of the race to year-end No. 1 by relying on the concept of defending points, but they usually just confuse things. Knowing that players have to defend varying numbers of points from last year tells us only that the current rankings are subject to considerable change. It doesn't predict who'll be on top when 2013 is finally wrapped.

 

[eliars]

Maths have admittedly never been my strong suit (edit edit) so maybe some of my mathematical setup has been irrelevant, but what I'm getting at is the following:

Djokovic has 6080 points to defend from now on till after the WTF. Djokovic currently has 12.310 points.

Nadal on the other hand, has 0 points to defend for the rest of the year. He currently has 6.860 points.

So if Djokovic defends his 6080 points from last year how many points does Nadal need to earn to overtake Djokovic? He will need 5450+ points to surpass Djokovic. Is Nadal going to amass that many points? No, he's not.

Therefore my whole spiel is that Djokovic won't be able to replicate his staggering 6080 points like he did last year and I predict he's going to lose around 1000-1500 points. But he may lose even more: Djokovic has 1500 points at the WTF, a USO RU, 2 M1000 wins, 1 M1000 RU, and 500 pts at Shanghai to defend.

So with Djokovic dropping estimated amount of points, it means that Nadal has to earn around 4000 points from now till the WTF to regain the #1 ranking. Is this a tough ask? Yeah. Am I being optimistic? Yeah. Is it impossible? Hell no.

 

[eliars]

I admire your optimism. He hasn't won a Masters post-Wimbledon since 2008, nor even been to a final since Davydonkey straight-setted him in Shanghai back in 2009. In fact, since 2007 he's only 50/50 to reach the semis in any individual post-Wimbledon M1000.

Just for the record, his ranking points accumulation in the second half of the season since 2007 has been as follows:

• 2007: 1305
• 2008: 3050 (excl. Olympics)
• 2009: 2400
• 2010: 4720
• 2011: 1980
• 2012: 0
• 2013: ...?

Regards,
MDL

Thanks for the stats. And yeah for Nadal to regain the #1 ranking he needs to have his 2nd best summer/fall hardcourt season.

I don't buy into the stuff about him being way past his prime and as Nadal this year won his first HC M1000 tourney in 4 years I don't see why he wouldn't be able to accumulate said points this time around.

We'll see though!

 

[JMR]

lol I see a lot of people are misinterpreting my OP. If I could I would edit the title to "Nadal to regain #1 by the end of the year": ie. finish #1 in 2013, I would do that.

My intention was not to talk about the race list, even though Nadal also has an outside chance of finishing on top of that one, although I doubt he's going to.

Huh? Finishing the year at No. 1 means winning the "race" for that year. What happens at the very end of the year is that all the previous year's points have finally dropped off, and players are ranked solely by their points earned in the current calendar year, i.e., the "race."

 

[eliars]

Huh? Finishing the year at No. 1 means winning the "race" for that year. What happens at the very end of the year is that all the previous year's points have finally dropped off, and players are ranked solely by their points earned in the current calendar year, i.e., the "race."

And that's where my maths skills come full circle . I see what you mean. In that case yeah Nadal needs to win the race too then, but what I'm getting at is that Nadal doesn't need to outperform Djokovic on points from now on to grab the #1 ranking at WTF.

 

[Bryan Swartz]

t what I'm getting at is that Nadal doesn't need to outperform Djokovic on points from now on to grab the #1 ranking at WTF.

No, but he does need to equal Djokovic. He's ahead by less than 1000 points and Djokovic has played fewer small tournaments and therefore has more potential gain left in the remaining events. If they are dead-even the rest of the way Nadal will take #1 by a very narrow margin -- virtually any edge for Djokovic and he keeps the spot.

Novak doesn't need to repeat last year, not even be close to it, to beat Nadal out. As you've said, it's not impossible for Nadal to get back to #1 this year. It's just really unlikely, and there's no good evidence I've seen that would indicate Rafa is able to consistently beat Djokovic on the faster hardcourts.

 

[President]

His R1 loss at Wimbledon really hurt his chances lol, if he has a strong HC season its certainly a possibility though.

 

[OrangePower]

It's possible Nadal ends up #1, but unlikely IMO. His results through the end of the year would need to almost keep pace with Djokovic's results, which would be unexpected considering Nadal's history of performance post Wimbledon.

Bottom line, if either Nadal or Djokovic win USO, that person is pretty much a lock for YE #1. I just don't see Nadal doing it this year.

If Murray wins USO, it gets interesting. He could also end up #1, but it would depend a lot on his other results and how Djokovic and Nadal have done.

My money is on Djokovic, Murray or Delpo to win USO, in that order of probability, and Djokovic to take YE #1.

 

[1477aces]

He has a good shot if he can win USO, but I doubt he will.