Nadal is in Australia and ready to rock n roll

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Never did I think Nadal would play pre AO tournament in 2024, even for AO it was doubtful till last month. A shock but good.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
Never did I think Nadal would play pre AO tournament in 2024, even for AO it was doubtful till last month. A shock but good.

He looks happy to be back. And of course he wants to get in matches and get his form going. Not sure what he is expecting from his visit to Australia, but he will be thinking about picking up points and getting his ranking higher before European Clay season so his draws improve.
 

NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
Remember, Rafas problems and surgery was totally different from Murray. Rafa did minor arthroscopic surgery, he should be able to recover to pre-surgery levels. Murray had the hip of an 80y old.

His movement and speed was gone after 2022 Wimbledon and he looked slow af in USO and at AO 2023
 

cb4_89

New User
Best of luck to Nadal. I'm cautious to say hes back till I see someone with the ability to move him wing to wing and throw in a bunch of drop shots for 3-5 sets do just that. So far all the hilights I have seen seem to be gentlemans agreement to not do any of that and allow Rafa to tee off with his forehand and backhands.

But so far so good I guess.
 

Djokovic2011

Bionic Poster
Best of luck to Nadal. I'm cautious to say hes back till I see someone with the ability to move him wing to wing and throw in a bunch of drop shots for 3-5 sets do just that. So far all the hilights I have seen seem to be gentlemans agreement to not do any of that and allow Rafa to tee off with his forehand and backhands.

But so far so good I guess.
Welcome to TTW cb4. :)
 

Lauren_Girl'

Hall of Fame
Yeah does anyone seriously think Rafa could win AO24? I would guess its only part of his way back...

No, nobody seriouly thinks he is the favorite. But Bookmakers still consider him the 6th favorite. Behind Djokovic, Alcaraz, Sinner, Medvedev and Zverev.
If he is lucky with the draw, 3 or 4 of these 5 players could be on the opposite half of the draw.
And Medvedev/Zverev can lose in the 1st week, it wouldn't be the first time. It happened last year.
Alcaraz still never played on the RLA and never played a 2nd week down under. Hard to know how he's going to play there, especially given his last HC results since USO. The only player I trust completely in BO5 is Djokovic.

If Nadal survives the 1st week, he'll play better and better. Given the current seeds, this could easily happen like this :
R1: qualified player
R2: a clay specialist seed like Cerdundolo or Etcheverry
R3: Ruud
R4: the player who'd upset Medvedev in a gruelling 5 sets in Round 3
QF: someone totally unexpected (like last year Safiullin and Eubanks in Wimbledon)
SF: an exhausted, cramping injured Sinner or Alcaraz (happens in every 2 Slams to one of them unfortunately)
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
Watch out Novak and NextGenners!

Last time Rafa came back from an extended break (2013) he tore through the season!!!

Is he going to celebrate the 10th anniversary of that comeback in appropriate style??? :cool:
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
No since it's already eleven years. And he won't even do half of that.

 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru

Ok but then we don't need to wait any longer. In 3 days the tournament will start and we will see.

Practice is not a competition.
 

Jonas78

Legend
No, nobody seriouly thinks he is the favorite. But Bookmakers still consider him the 6th favorite. Behind Djokovic, Alcaraz, Sinner, Medvedev and Zverev.
If he is lucky with the draw, 3 or 4 of these 5 players could be on the opposite half of the draw.
And Medvedev/Zverev can lose in the 1st week, it wouldn't be the first time. It happened last year.
Alcaraz still never played on the RLA and never played a 2nd week down under. Hard to know how he's going to play there, especially given his last HC results since USO. The only player I trust completely in BO5 is Djokovic.

If Nadal survives the 1st week, he'll play better and better. Given the current seeds, this could easily happen like this :
R1: qualified player
R2: a clay specialist seed like Cerdundolo or Etcheverry
R3: Ruud
R4: the player who'd upset Medvedev in a gruelling 5 sets in Round 3
QF: someone totally unexpected (like last year Safiullin and Eubanks in Wimbledon)
SF: an exhausted, cramping injured Sinner or Alcaraz (happens in every 2 Slams to one of them unfortunately)
I'll never write off Rafa completely, but I dont see him winning AO.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Now we all know Nadal is entering Brisbane. He was sidelined for a year from AO 23, but if we go back to Wimbledon 22, only time he looked good was Wimbledon. So that's 17 months ago.

Nadal will be coming to the tour at the age 37 years and 6 months. There is just not a history of players winning even tournaments after this age. Of course there are very few exceptions. They are these.

Gonzalez - Won 9 times, last title at age 44 years 7 months, in 1972
Rosewall - Won 14 times, last title at age 43 years, in 1977
Federer - Won 4, last title at age 38 years 2 months
Mal Anderson - Won 1 at age 37 years 9 months in 1973
Lopez - Won 1 at 37 years 8 months in 2019
Marty Riessen - Won 1 title post age 37 years 8 months in 1979


That's it guys, no one else has done it.

Now out of these, we have to see that Rosewall and Gonzalez, Anderson and Riessen all won titles in 1970s. Is that a coincidence? I don't know. But then we have 2 guys in 2010s in Federer and Lopez who both won a title in 2019.

Can Nadal win more titles? There are some things that go in his favor.

1. From his last slam win, he said he was in a lot of pain , but ended up winning Roland Garros. That is a testament to his fighting spirit. If he could do it once, its possible for him to do so next year.
2. His clay win rate is best ever. So he will have some chance to win on clay.
3. Federer and Lopez are his contemporaries. If they could do it, Nadal has a chance as well. In fact Federer could win a grand slam at age 37 years 11 months.
4. Medical science has gone too far in last 10/20 years.
5. Nadal is a big player. So his skillset is at very high level that he can win a title even playing at reduced capacity.


But he also has a few things going against.
1. He was away from tennis for a year.
2. He had hip surgery. Although this is not hip replacement, its still very risky.
3. He always had injury issues in wrist back legs etc.
4. There will probably be more players wanting a shot at him before he retires. So he will not see demoralized players.

I think there is very low chance that Nadal adds a slam to his tally. But he has solid chance to win a title on this comeback, perhaps many titles.
 

SonnyT

Legend
Watch out Novak and NextGenners!

Last time Rafa came back from an extended break (2013) he tore through the season!!!

Is he going to celebrate the 10th anniversary of that comeback in appropriate style??? :cool:
How many 3-slam seasons has Rafa had since then? Zero

How many 3-slam seasons has Novak had since then? Three: '15, '21 and '23

You might say it was due to inflationary slams. Well, Nadal competed against the same field that Djokovic competed against.
 

MichaelNadal

Bionic Poster
Now we all know Nadal is entering Brisbane. He was sidelined for a year from AO 23, but if we go back to Wimbledon 22, only time he looked good was Wimbledon. So that's 17 months ago.

Nadal will be coming to the tour at the age 37 years and 6 months. There is just not a history of players winning even tournaments after this age. Of course there are very few exceptions. They are these.

Gonzalez - Won 9 times, last title at age 44 years 7 months, in 1972
Rosewall - Won 14 times, last title at age 43 years, in 1977
Federer - Won 4, last title at age 38 years 2 months
Mal Anderson - Won 1 at age 37 years 9 months in 1973
Lopez - Won 1 at 37 years 8 months in 2019
Marty Riessen - Won 1 title post age 37 years 8 months in 1979


That's it guys, no one else has done it.

Now out of these, we have to see that Rosewall and Gonzalez, Anderson and Riessen all won titles in 1970s. Is that a coincidence? I don't know. But then we have 2 guys in 2010s in Federer and Lopez who both won a title in 2019.

Can Nadal win more titles? There are some things that go in his favor.

1. From his last slam win, he said he was in a lot of pain , but ended up winning Roland Garros. That is a testament to his fighting spirit. If he could do it once, its possible for him to do so next year.
2. His clay win rate is best ever. So he will have some chance to win on clay.
3. Federer and Lopez are his contemporaries. If they could do it, Nadal has a chance as well. In fact Federer could win a grand slam at age 37 years 11 months.
4. Medical science has gone too far in last 10/20 years.
5. Nadal is a big player. So his skillset is at very high level that he can win a title even playing at reduced capacity.


But he also has a few things going against.
1. He was away from tennis for a year.
2. He had hip surgery. Although this is not hip replacement, its still very risky.
3. He always had injury issues in wrist back legs etc.
4. There will probably be more players wanting a shot at him before he retires. So he will not see demoralized players.

I think there is very low chance that Nadal adds a slam to his tally. But he has solid chance to win a title on this comeback, perhaps many titles.

How many 3-slam seasons has Rafa had since then? Zero

How many 3-slam seasons has Novak had since then? Three: '15, '21 and '23

You might say it was due to inflationary slams. Well, Nadal competed against the same field that Djokovic competed against.
7dc2108657ca5d6d051d20a4b5ee6db2d4d06bfd.gifv
 

Enceladus

Legend
We'll see how far Nadal goes at AO 24. What is clear, however, is that if there is a clash with Djoker, it will be a heavy blow for Bull, Nole will relish the victory over his greatest rival in his living room. :happydevil:
 

Clay lover

Legend
We'll see how far Nadal goes at AO 24. What is clear, however, is that if there is a clash with Djoker, it will be a heavy blow for Bull, Nole will relish the victory over his greatest rival in his living room. :happydevil:
We know Nadal will lose to Novak on hard lol no need to fantasize about Djokovic beating him because you love Djokovic and hate Nadal.
 

DSH

Talk Tennis Guru
We'll see how far Nadal goes at AO 24. What is clear, however, is that if there is a clash with Djoker, it will be a heavy blow for Bull, Nole will relish the victory over his greatest rival in his living room. :happydevil:
But Nadal is a shadow of his former self.
How extraordinary can the Serbian wolf boast about a potential pyrrhic victory?
:confused:
 

Krish0608

G.O.A.T.
Nadal is going to surprise a lot of folks next year. I keep saying that he’s not returning just for a farewell tour as some Nole fans would love to think. That’s not Nadal. He’s ready and is planning an assault at the top. He’s going to come with everything he’s got. And historically speaking, his comebacks have been nothing short of amazing.
 
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