Nadal is More Predictable on Serve Under Pressure

[Meles]

Written before the Auz Open final:
"One of the aspects of Nadal’s game that seems to be the most improved at the start of the 2017 season is his serve. Nadal has been serving and winning on first serve at around 75% or more in his AO matches, numbers that put him on par with John Isner and Ivo Karlovic. Those gains aren’t because Nadal is hitting harder or more accurately. It is that he is playing less predictably. For a long time, players have known that they could expect Nadal to go to the backhand (for right-handers) the majority of the time but this year he has kept them more on their toes.

Despite that improvement, we all know Nadal’s game can suffer under pressure. Jim Courier made an interesting comment in his coverage of the semifinal match when he concluded that Nadal was reverting back to his more predictable serve patterns after Dimitrov had taken the second set. Was Courier right?"

This might have been his undoing in the fifth set with Fed in the final. Brilliant analysis and helps explain how Nadal's serve numbers have been so strong despite no apparent change in velocity:
http://on-the-t.com/2017/01/28/AO2017-Nadal-Serve-Predictability/

 

[Luckydog]

I agree on most of OP. But when Nadal's facing fed,things changed.In 2017 AO final and Miami final,Nadal saved most of break points using his serve!
I'd say that Nadal is less solid under pressure rather than that he's more predictable on serve.
When the game comes to 4:4 or 5:5,or in tie-break,Nadal chocks more frequently than ever before in recent years.

 

[Tennisanity]

Nadal is still playing at an extremely high level today. It's just his fans lying to save face for losing to Federer. I mean you gotta have some reason to live, right?

 

[xFedal]

How are Nadals serve numbers looking so far in the clay season ?

 

[xFedal]

Nadal is still playing at an extremely high level today. It's just his fans lying to save face for losing to Federer. I mean you gotta have some reason to live, right?

There is a legit reason for losing AO17F ...

 

[Meles]

How are Nadals serve numbers looking so far in the clay season ?

Phenomenal.

 

[NatF]

Phenomenal.

Phenonadal

 

[DRII]

Nadal's 'clutchness' is coming back. he's saved many break points (set up by his serve) so far this season, especially on the clay.

 

[ultradr]

Nadal's game is more about developing weapons that you know it's coming but has not much you can do about it.
Like the slice wide serve at ad-court and hit it to the opposite wide open court if it returns.
This slice serve is getting as good as his prime.

However, his strategy at clutch points are more unpredictable.
He often takes more risk under pressure.

This is polar opposite of Federer strategically.

 

[BeatlesFan]

However, his strategy at clutch points are more unpredictable.
He often takes more risk under pressure.

This is polar opposite of Federer strategically.

You must have missed the AO 2017, IW and Miami Fed-Rafa matches.

 

[ultradr]

You must have missed the AO 2017, IW and Miami Fed-Rafa matches.

Yes, I agree with you on Federer of 2017.
Federer actually improved at the age of 35 and overcame his biggest weakness.
His strategic flaw under pressure like 5th set.
And you know Federer never won deciding set at Miami since 2005 or something.
But he won a couple this year.
I was utterly impressed.
I never seen a tennis player overcome his/her flaw at this late stage of a career.

 

[Gazelle]

Phenonadal

Phenomanadal

 

[NatF]

Phenomanadal

That's the one.

 

[xFedal]

Phenomenal.

I was expecting numbers.

 

[rainingaces]

Phenomenal.

I was watching highlights of the 2010 French final and his serve was another level still back then imo. The spin he got on his T serves was incredible.

 

[Meles]

I was expecting numbers.

I was watching highlights of the 2010 final and his serve was another level still back then imo. The spin he got on his T serves was incredible.

Don't underestimate the importance of Moya (Moya I'm sure totally responsible for the changes this article details.)
In 2017 Nadal has held 88.7% of his serve games on clay, winning 68.8% of his serve points, 73.1% on first serve and 60.1% on 2nd with a lowish 67.5% first serve rate (career 70%). Return is 47.3% points won with 42.0% on first return and 56.6% on 2nd. Rafa has broken 41.7% of the time. Rome will likely hurt his stats and then they'll rebound at RG where he'll likely have a lot of easy early round matches.

2010 Nadal 68.7% of serve points won, 72.6% on first serve and 58.0% on 2nd serve. First serve rate 72.6%. It appears despite lesser movement, Moya's tactics have made 2017 Rafa more dangerous on serve. Nadal won a whopping 91.2% of serve games in 2010 because he was more clutch saving 77% of break points which is much higher than his normal rate of 68.7% on all serve points. Nadal is at 70.1% in 2017 on break points which is still fine. On return Nadal lesser in 2010 breaking opponnents 41.3% of the time. Nadal won 46.6% of return points in 2010 with just 38.1% on first return versous an astounding 42.0% this year. On 2nd return Nadal was 60.1% versus just 56.6% in 2017.

The 2nd serve return numbers go with what all the visual boneheads on TTW will state which is that Nadal was much better on neutral rallies earlier in his prime. He's a slower player and these results are no suprise. Everyone can agree. The Moya factor appears to be having a big impact on his first serve and return game (something Nadal has groused about himself stating the greater importance of serve and return these days.) Its really hard to see or get a feel for this in the match. It comes down to the numbers. We'll see where Nadal stands at the end of the clay season (he may play in July at Hamburg), but so far he's definitely putting out solid prime numbers despite his age. The great news for Nadal fans is these Moya gains aren't going to dissappear. Rafa has made the transition to a new game and he should do much better the rest of the year too. In theory hard courts should be a great surface for him in his dotage.

@Gary Duane

 

[Bartelby]

The fact is that clay is not going to make you look slow and every time Nadal is off clay he looks far slower than he was in his prime.

 

[Backspin1183]

I think Nadal has mentioned this a couple of times that he has been practising to serve bigger on both the 1st and 2nd serves.

 

[rainingaces]

Don't underestimate the importance of Moya (Moya I'm sure totally responsible for the changes this article details.)
In 2017 Nadal has held 88.7% of his serve games on clay, winning 68.8% of his serve points, 73.1% on first serve and 60.1% on 2nd with a lowish 67.5% first serve rate (career 70%). Return is 47.3% points won with 42.0% on first return and 56.6% on 2nd. Rafa has broken 41.7% of the time. Rome will likely hurt his stats and then they'll rebound at RG where he'll likely have a lot of easy early round matches.

2010 Nadal 68.7% of serve points won, 72.6% on first serve and 58.0% on 2nd serve. First serve rate 72.6%. It appears despite lesser movement, Moya's tactics have made 2017 Rafa more dangerous on serve. Nadal won a whopping 91.2% of serve games in 2010 because he was more clutch saving 77% of break points which is much higher than his normal rate of 68.7% on all serve points. Nadal is at 70.1% in 2017 on break points which is still fine. On return Nadal lesser in 2010 breaking opponnents 41.3% of the time. Nadal won 46.6% of return points in 2010 with just 38.1% on first return versous an astounding 42.0% this year. On 2nd return Nadal was 60.1% versus just 56.6% in 2017.

The 2nd serve return numbers go with what all the visual boneheads on TTW will state which is that Nadal was much better on neutral rallies earlier in his prime. He's a slower player and these results are no suprise. Everyone can agree. The Moya factor appears to be having a big impact on his first serve and return game (something Nadal has groused about himself stating the greater importance of serve and return these days.) Its really hard to see or get a feel for this in the match. It comes down to the numbers. We'll see where Nadal stands at the end of the clay season (he may play in July at Hamburg), but so far he's definitely putting out solid prime numbers despite his age. The great news for Nadal fans is these Moya gains aren't going to dissappear. Rafa has made the transition to a new game and he should do much better the rest of the year too. In theory hard courts should be a great surface for him in his dotage.

That's alot of numbers meles but they only tell a portion of the story. The current clay era is not as strong as 2010, infact it is so far from it. Nadal's numbers will fall off a cliff as soon as he sets foot on a grass court.

 

[Meles]

That's alot of numbers Mainad but they only tell a portion of the story. The current clay era is not as strong as 2010, infact it is so far from it. Nadal's numbers will fall off a cliff as soon as he sets foot on a grass court.

2017 is not done, so these are just positive signs. Feel free to ignore them and bet against Nadal.

 

[Backspin1183]

That's alot of numbers Mainad but they only tell a portion of the story. The current clay era is not as strong as 2010, infact it is so far from it. Nadal's numbers will fall off a cliff as soon as he sets foot on a grass court.

You are wrong!





Meles is not Mainad.

 

[Gary Duane]

In later on this:

Written before the Auz Open final:
"One of the aspects of Nadal’s game that seems to be the most improved at the start of the 2017 season is his serve. Nadal has been serving and winning on first serve at around 75% or more in his AO matches, numbers that put him on par with John Isner and Ivo Karlovic. Those gains aren’t because Nadal is hitting harder or more accurately. It is that he is playing less predictably. For a long time, players have known that they could expect Nadal to go to the backhand (for right-handers) the majority of the time but this year he has kept them more on their toes.

I just need to point out the stupidity of the second part of that sentence. Of COURSE accuracy improves tremendously when a player is able to accurately serve at will to both sides of the box, then mixing in body serves.

That's pretty much the definition of accuracy in tennis!

 

[Meles]

In later on this:

I just need to point out the stupidity of the second part of that sentence. Of COURSE accuracy improves tremendously when a player is able to accurately serve at will to both sides of the box, then mixing in body serves.

That's pretty much the definition of accuracy in tennis!

Did you read the article. It was written before Auz Open final. The main point is that Nadal's tactics have suddenly changed. I'm sure most here would credit Uncle Toni.

 

[Gary Duane]

That's alot of numbers meles but they only tell a portion of the story. The current clay era is not as strong as 2010, infact it is so far from it. Nadal's numbers will fall off a cliff as soon as he sets foot on a grass court.

Ah, Nadal is only winning on clay because it is a weak era, right?

For the record, whatever Nadal's number are on serving in the clay season, generally they go up higher in the grass and fall HC seasons...

It's all about him staying injury free...

 

[Meles]

You are wrong!





Meles is not Mainad.

Meles Bizarro Mainad. Abondon Murray for Thiem.

 

[Bartelby]

These people know how to do this in their sleep. The fact is they like to vary their serve, preserve their bodies and to win as 'economically' as possible. And Nadal always complains about his body, so he needs to nurse it at times.

I think Nadal has mentioned this a couple of times that he has been practising to serve bigger on both the 1st and 2nd serves.

 

[Backspin1183]

Ah, Nadal is only winning on clay because it is a weak era, right?

For the record, whatever Nadal's number are on serving in the clay season, generally they go up higher in the grass and fall HC seasons...

It's all about him staying injury free...

The serve stats go high for most players in the grass season including Nadal's, even in last 3-4 years.

 

[Meles]

Ah, Nadal is only winning on clay because it is a weak era, right?

For the record, whatever Nadal's number are on serving in the clay season, generally they go up higher in the grass and fall HC seasons...

It's all about him staying injury free...

Its pretty clear that the entire top 10 of 2010 is better than anyone in the top 10 in 2017; didn't you get the memo. That of course completely throws the stats.

 

[Meles]

These people know how to do this in their sleep. The fact is they like to vary their serve, preserve their bodies and to win as 'economically' as possible. And Nadal always complains about his body, so he needs to nurse it at times.

FFS why wasn't he doing it in 2015 and 2016?

 

[Bartelby]

Given the amount of wins he has had on clay, you might even say Nadal created a weak era.

Generals who win usually wipe opponents from the battefield, no?

Ah, Nadal is only winning on clay because it is a weak era, right?

For the record, whatever Nadal's number are on serving in the clay season, generally they go up higher in the grass and fall HC seasons...

It's all about him staying injury free...

 

[Gary Duane]

Did you read the article. It was written before Auz Open final. The main point is that Nadal's tactics have suddenly changed. I'm sure most here would credit Uncle Toni.

Not bothering with the article because the points remains the same.

Players avoid hitting certain spots because they miss them and don't feel safe. I can't believe for a second that Nadal, as intelligent as he is, was avoiding going up the T on the ad side or serving wide on deuce because he didn't think that was a good tactic.

He didn't have those placements in his bad of tricks.

And now he does.

I saw him working on that in 2016 to some extent, before he got injured. I think Moya really pushed that change. The skill set involves hitting those spots regularly, right?

 

[Gary Duane]

FFS why wasn't he doing it in 2015 and 2016?

I still think he has some back/shoulder issues and did not feel strong or healthy enough to work on that skill set.

But who knows?

 

[Bartelby]

The answer was there in the material you quoted but didn't read.

The real answer however is that no one knows.

What we do know is that sometimes Nadal's serve is ramped up.

Most other times it is not.

FFS why wasn't he doing it in 2015 and 2016?

 

[Gary Duane]

Actually, I think this always happens with total domination, thus the chicken/egg thing. It's always an argument: Was Fed "that" good, or was everyone else "that weak"?

Given the amount of wins he has had on clay, you might even say Nadal created a weak era.

Generals who win usually wipe opponents from the battefield, no?

 

[Meles]

Not bothering with the article because the points remains the same.

Players avoid hitting certain spots because they miss them and don't feel safe. I can't believe for a second that Nadal, as intelligent as he is, was avoiding going up the T on the ad side or serving wide on deuce because he didn't think that was a good tactic.

He didn't have those placements in his bad of tricks.

And now he does.

I saw him working on that in 2016 to some extent, before he got injured. I think Moya really pushed that change. The skill set involves hitting those spots regularly, right?

That adds to the picture. Bottom line he was predictable, now he's not. I'd swear his returns in Madrid were insanely good. Thiem could never get his typical first serve offense really rolling like he does against nearly everyone else on tour (Wawrinka handles the big Thiem kickers very well.)

 

[Meles]

The answer was there in the material you quoted but didn't read.

The real answer however is that no one knows.

What we do know is that sometimes Nadal's serve is ramped up.

Most other times it is not.

So Nadal and his coaching team have no idea (what they're doing?)

 

[Gary Duane]

Just remember that in 2013 no one really knew how much problem Fed was having with his back until it wasn't such a problem any more.

The answer was there in the material you quoted but didn't read.

The real answer however is that no one knows.

What we do know is that sometimes Nadal's serve is ramped up.

Most other times it is not.

 

[Gary Duane]

That adds to the picture. Bottom line he was predictable, now he's not. I'd swear his returns in Madrid were insanely good. Thiem could never get his typical first serve offense really rolling like he does against nearly everyone else on tour (Wawrinka handles the big Thiem kickers very well.)

People ignore the fact that winning easy on serve gives players a ton of extra energy to invest in breaking. While Nadal was struggling so hard to win serve, it impacted his returning.

Especially over the last few tourneys I've heard guys like Gimelstob hype Nadal's wide serve to the forehand and the T serve, but I don't know why for the most part they did not say so much about it earlier. The moment he started to change the mixture of serves to the backhand and forehand everything started to change. The more he has success with it, the more it will become a new habit.

There was one year that Nadal was up into the 90s on holding serve on grass, so we know he can do it. If he does, he will be very dangerous this year on grass.

 

[Meles]

I still think he has some back/shoulder issues and did not feel strong or healthy enough to work on that skill set.

But who knows?

2016 hmmm. He was actually popping in some 213 kph serves once in a while.... horrible stats for sure in 2016 by Nadal standards.

Somehow, I don't think his back/shoulder explains all of 2015 and 2016.

 

[Meles]

Just remember that in 2013 no one really knew how much problem Fed was having with his back until it wasn't such a problem any more.

Good lord are you now saying that Fed is better from 2014-2017 because his back isn't as bad as it was in 2013? A factor for sure in how bad 2013 was compared to 2012 and back.

 

[Gary Duane]

2016 hmmm. He was actually popping in some 213 kph serves once in a while.... horrible stats for sure in 2016 by Nadal standards.

Somehow, I don't think his back/shoulder explains all of 2015 and 2016.

I don't either, but I think Nadal's confidence goes down like a line of dominoes when one thing goes wrong, and really isn't that probably what is wrong with Murray and Djokovic right now?

 

[Meles]

I don't either, but I think Nadal's confidence goes down like a line of dominoes when one thing goes wrong, and really isn't that probably what is wrong with Murray and Djokovic right now?

They're losing some movement/flexibility to my eyes; Djokoray. You're really losing your mind if you think Djokovic's problems are due to his confidence.

 

[Meles]

I was watching highlights of the 2010 French final and his serve was another level still back then imo. The spin he got on his T serves was incredible.

Just don't watch drunk. Please make sure your image is not stretched or distorted in any way.

 

[Gary Duane]

Good lord are you now saying that Fed is better from 2014-2017 because his back isn't as bad as it was in 2013? A factor for sure in how bad 2013 was compared to 2012 and back.

Absolutely not. I'm saying that 2013 was the last straw in going with his old game. For sure the back HAD to be behind his serve falling off a cliff.

He went from winning:

90.98% of service games in 2012, all surfaces to:

86.63% in 2013

At that point, when the one thing that was rock solid in his game fell, it was an ideal time to start to retool. He no longer had anything to lose.

I know it is sacrilege to suggest that Federer ever had any weakness, but just look at his return stats over the years.

2004 AS
30.47

2005 AS
30.74

2006 AS
31.60

For an aggressive player, that's fantastic.

But starting in 2007 that already started to decline, so that:

2012
25.88

2013
25.93

Then:
2014
26.05

2015
27.31

2016 ?

2017
29.90

It's pretty clear, isn't it?

This is not just a short period!

So a decline starting in 2007 till 2013, then a reversal the next year which may be continuing.

Pretty obvious to me what has happened...

 

[Gary Duane]

They're losing some movement/flexibility to my eyes; Djokoray. You're really losing your mind if you think Djokovic's problems are due to his confidence.

Ah, the Meles "You're really losing you mind" comment that instantly makes enemies out of people who basically agree with you.

Let me reply in kind:

Meles, YOU are a complete IDIOT if you don't think that confidence is PART of what is wrong!

Just replying with lack of tact to lack of tact.

Did I say, anywhere, any time, that confidence is either the main issue or the only one?

But once a player declines, for any reason, even if that player otherwise gets his mojo back, the "in the zone level of confidence" present when a guy is winning everything takes a long time to get back.

Well, usually...

I can't explain where Fed got HIS confidence back this year, but let's face it, this is not a guy who in general has a confidence problem!

Nadal, on the other hand, was probably already about where he is right now in the early spring but most definitely did not have that confidence back, which is why clay is so important to him. He's not going to believe he can sweep the whole clay season until he does it, or even win RG until he does it, but if he does, look out world...